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btcone111
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December 14, 2017, 08:24:49 AM |
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There are loads of people out there who are losing money in this bullish market. One of the groups is technical analysts.
Don't get me wrong, I love TA, however it seems TA is really just not very effective on crypto.
That's true, but a lot of people are influenced by TA. I have been doing it recently in tradingview just to influence bullish tendencies in people that visits that site. Theres so many bearish "predictions" there that I had to do something. TA still works but if you are smart, even with your TA, you still have to try as much as possible to follow the trend and not be too relaxed that everything can just go as you want it. Not sure how the next top is going to be like but with the charts right now, nothing can be smelt yet. It is good to just be careful at this stage. I really do not know why I have been feeling uneasy with this whole future thing, but it is good for one to just remain optimistic anyway. OK - maybe you could share which TA indicators / patterns / methods you've been using. For the last few biggest BTC rallies, TA followers (myself included) have been whipsawed very harshly by getting out of BTC wrongly / getting into alts wrongly because of bull traps. |
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"I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume." -- Satoshi
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sgbett (OP)
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December 14, 2017, 11:07:43 AM
Last edit: December 14, 2017, 01:17:59 PM by sgbett |
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Hello,
-snip-
= $16,500
I have been watching this...good call. I didnt want to believe..I thought 20k and then a retrace. Today's sell off has brought it right down into the ballpark. Sold @ 17.21k Profits still leaving alts. eth surprisingly resilient. The next 48 hours will tell the story. 100th post after 4 years...  WTF?? OP got it completely wrong! He wrote 16.5k is top and then bear market! We are not done yet! We are consolidating while alts pumping a bit. Wait until Bitcoin starts it's next push, up to 20-25k and alts probably losing ground again. And after that we may or may not have seen a top. Calling tops right now is just dumb in such mania phase. However we will retrace hard at one pint, at least for a while, what could be about a few weeks or months. And then we continue the run on the path to the moon. Woah, slow down cowboy...  When it breaks out convincingly, then yeah I'm wrong but let me have my moment of hubris here!!!  |
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
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fabiorem
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December 14, 2017, 11:41:06 AM |
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It sidelined.
There happened a double top, but the demand is so high that it sidelined instead of falling. That's why bitcoin is challenging TA, because of demand which is much higher than any stock. The demand will make it hard to short.
Now theres CME by 18th December, maybe we will have more money flowing in, and the price will go to 20k.
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sgbett (OP)
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December 14, 2017, 01:17:13 PM |
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It sidelined.
There happened a double top, but the demand is so high that it sidelined instead of falling. That's why bitcoin is challenging TA, because of demand which is much higher than any stock. The demand will make it hard to short.
Now theres CME by 18th December, maybe we will have more money flowing in, and the price will go to 20k.
Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off. The fact its just raced up to here and is now going sideways is what led me to speculate that somebody else with big pockets saw the top was in and is now holding the price here, accumulating, ready to do something. What? I don't know. All of the continued cheerleading and we'll be at $20k soon, makes me feel uneasy. |
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
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Asrael999
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December 14, 2017, 01:26:53 PM |
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we're entering or in a shift in user volumes, the old paradigms may no longer be valid - shift your TA expectations accordingly. On the 1w and 3d log charts this current run up isn't anything like as steep as the ones that occurred in 13, we look about half way through those cycles if you look at the gradient - and the longer the slow build goes on the higher the top will be.
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leea-1334
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December 14, 2017, 01:30:06 PM |
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Sorry for belated opinion, looks like you came close to predicting the top, but Bitcoin does have a habit of doing that to people, yes? I find it very interesting to see that your "floor" is set so high, though not reaching even $4,000. When you consider how far Bitcoin has crashed before, I would not put it beyond BTC to drop even to $2k floors is anything serious were to threaten it simultaneously.
This week we had futures, and then South Korea, but still Bitcoin looks steady. I wonder what it would take for this to crash?
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sgbett (OP)
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December 14, 2017, 03:10:50 PM |
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we're entering or in a shift in user volumes, the old paradigms may no longer be valid - shift your TA expectations accordingly. On the 1w and 3d log charts this current run up isn't anything like as steep as the ones that occurred in 13, we look about half way through those cycles if you look at the gradient - and the longer the slow build goes on the higher the top will be.
Yeah I certainly respect that opinion, I saw the same when i looked at that scale. I decided though, that each move has more users and so the inertia plays out over a longer time. To account for this i decided to look at the shape of the curve from what appears to be the bottom, to the resulting top. When I did that with this run up it seemed to match in shape/steepness (the chart on first post shows it). You could totally be right though. if this is consolidation before a final run id expect at least a double from here, more likely if it breaks up convincingly above 16,5k I'd go as far as maybe $80k. Would need to have a little play with the charts though, so don't hold me to that! |
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
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Torque
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December 14, 2017, 04:04:44 PM |
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This thread must be where the bears hang out. Bears on this thread should put their money where their mouth is and short the market. I double dare ya. |
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Supercrypt
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December 14, 2017, 04:35:16 PM |
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Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.
I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people. Correction has been over and we are supposed to have shot higher than we are except for the fact that we still have some battles going on between the bulls and the bears which is why we are still here. Bitcoin is weathering every storm right now and the chances of still having a bull run are totally possible which I believe in no time, we should have some pretty good movement upward. There are loads of people out there who are losing money in this bullish market. One of the groups is technical analysts.
Don't get me wrong, I love TA, however it seems TA is really just not very effective on crypto.
TA has worked pretty well for me anyway, but the truth is that, it is a crazy market and you may just not get what you were expecting, most especially like the recent fake top that seems to be like a double bottom now but it can happen in any market. Most traders are actually trying to thread carefully anyway, as there is so much uncertainty in the market right now, but who really knows where it is all going to end ? |
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alyssa85
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CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
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December 14, 2017, 04:39:39 PM |
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It sidelined.
There happened a double top, but the demand is so high that it sidelined instead of falling. That's why bitcoin is challenging TA, because of demand which is much higher than any stock. The demand will make it hard to short.
Now theres CME by 18th December, maybe we will have more money flowing in, and the price will go to 20k.
Remember that when CME launches people will be able to go short as well as long... |
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Joe200
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December 14, 2017, 05:45:08 PM |
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It sidelined.
There happened a double top, but the demand is so high that it sidelined instead of falling. That's why bitcoin is challenging TA, because of demand which is much higher than any stock. The demand will make it hard to short.
Now theres CME by 18th December, maybe we will have more money flowing in, and the price will go to 20k.
Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off. The fact its just raced up to here and is now going sideways is what led me to speculate that somebody else with big pockets saw the top was in and is now holding the price here, accumulating, ready to do something. What? I don't know. All of the continued cheerleading and we'll be at $20k soon, makes me feel uneasy. It's happened before. Look at 2013. We were sitting at $1k for 8 straight days. Today is day 4 of $16k. Or day 8 of ~$15k. I don't think this is unprecedented. |
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Joe200
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December 14, 2017, 05:47:41 PM |
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I am loving all the unironic "new paradigm" posts on this thread.
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RyNinDaCleM
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Legen -wait for it- dary
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December 14, 2017, 06:30:06 PM |
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It sidelined.
There happened a double top, but the demand is so high that it sidelined instead of falling. That's why bitcoin is challenging TA, because of demand which is much higher than any stock. The demand will make it hard to short.
Now theres CME by 18th December, maybe we will have more money flowing in, and the price will go to 20k.
Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off. The fact its just raced up to here and is now going sideways is what led me to speculate that somebody else with big pockets saw the top was in and is now holding the price here, accumulating, ready to do something. What? I don't know. The difference here is it may not be done with the parabolic move. Think about how much slower the market moves now. The individual waves I mean, not the absolute price change. So this is just a longer corrective move within the larger parabola. I'd say don't beat yourself up over it, on breakout, buy back and ride it up to the next level. You are right in saying a move like this will end in bear market. It definitely will, but where the vertical rise ends is anyone's guess. I am expecting something closer to 60k before we get actual sustained bear market for a period of time. But that still isn't the end of the larger impulse, imo. Now, if we hang out here long enough, then that 60k figure rises. This consolidation only strengthens the longer term trend |
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fabiorem
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December 14, 2017, 06:36:23 PM |
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Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off.
Paradigm shift. Bitcoin is not a stock, it is a revolution. |
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Ektra
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December 15, 2017, 02:29:17 AM |
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Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off.
Paradigm shift. Bitcoin is not a stock, it is a revolution. That's a nice thought, but forgive me my scepticism when all the posts like this come from guys with join dates post 2015. The market will change as it grows but I do not see any reason for step changes. |
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Drixy
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reading.......
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December 15, 2017, 03:27:46 AM |
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Well a correction is obviously incoming after the past few days. But obviously it's not going to go down that low haha. I expect just as all the other crashes this year it will go back to the base price of the current boom - $11k-$12k. It will recover back up to the ATH in a matter of days or weeks and we'll be over $20k not too long from now.
Bitocin has not experienced a major correction (crash) this year. Everything to date has been pretty tame. Look at the $60-$1200 sunup, lots of up and down along the way. Then you get the *real* correction. Yeah so far there are no big crash up until now maybe bitcoin has dumped an incredible amount but not a lot i think it is considerable cause it has pumped up a large amount of it by a $1000 on a day. Thinking it was an correction might be understandable but what happened was still unknown it is a common thinking if you think it is a correction or manipulation. |
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btcone111
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December 15, 2017, 07:18:00 AM |
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we're entering or in a shift in user volumes, the old paradigms may no longer be valid - shift your TA expectations accordingly. On the 1w and 3d log charts this current run up isn't anything like as steep as the ones that occurred in 13, we look about half way through those cycles if you look at the gradient - and the longer the slow build goes on the higher the top will be.
Yeah I certainly respect that opinion, I saw the same when i looked at that scale. I decided though, that each move has more users and so the inertia plays out over a longer time. To account for this i decided to look at the shape of the curve from what appears to be the bottom, to the resulting top. When I did that with this run up it seemed to match in shape/steepness (the chart on first post shows it). You could totally be right though. if this is consolidation before a final run id expect at least a double from here, more likely if it breaks up convincingly above 16,5k I'd go as far as maybe $80k. Would need to have a little play with the charts though, so don't hold me to that! it is then, thank you sgbett haha!  |
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btcone111
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December 15, 2017, 07:23:55 AM |
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It sidelined.
There happened a double top, but the demand is so high that it sidelined instead of falling. That's why bitcoin is challenging TA, because of demand which is much higher than any stock. The demand will make it hard to short.
Now theres CME by 18th December, maybe we will have more money flowing in, and the price will go to 20k.
Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off. The fact its just raced up to here and is now going sideways is what led me to speculate that somebody else with big pockets saw the top was in and is now holding the price here, accumulating, ready to do something. What? I don't know. The difference here is it may not be done with the parabolic move. Think about how much slower the market moves now. The individual waves I mean, not the absolute price change. So this is just a longer corrective move within the larger parabola. I'd say don't beat yourself up over it, on breakout, buy back and ride it up to the next level. You are right in saying a move like this will end in bear market. It definitely will, but where the vertical rise ends is anyone's guess. I am expecting something closer to 60k before we get actual sustained bear market for a period of time. But that still isn't the end of the larger impulse, imo. Now, if we hang out here long enough, then that 60k figure rises. This consolidation only strengthens the longer term trend I agree. Since it's gone parabolic starting at around 6K, I already think we should be bullish rather than bearish why? because there are too much caution around the parabolic pattern, people are too conscious (right or wrong) that it's parabolic. From a contrarian point of view, that's an important sign that the top is not reached. The beauty of exponential is that it's fractal. You can rise 100% from any price for as many times as you wish to, and it's still a parabolic curve LOL |
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el kaka22
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December 15, 2017, 08:13:57 AM |
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Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.
I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people. Still not over I guess. We have CME also coming up so who knows. I just don't like these Wall Street manipulators. I am confident though that Bitcoin reaches $20,000 this month. We totally share the same thought. There is really not much they can do, as they are gambling in fiats anyway. All the above, looking at the fact that they may want to use their funds to manipulate the market is quite possible. These guys really do not have anything to lose and all they are using are stolen money anyway as far as I am concerned but we would really want to see how they want to achieve all that. In reality we cannot expect those manipulators to stop around $16,500 levels as human's greed has no limits. |
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jjacob
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December 15, 2017, 08:32:57 AM |
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Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off.
Paradigm shift. Bitcoin is not a stock, it is a revolution. That may be true, but we have come a long way from 2009. Bitcoin has now become big enough to be a separate asset class. With a large number of investors, it might very well start behaving like a stock in terms of price. |
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