Hello

I can see what you are trying to say, but since you are using a log scale, sorry to be be a bit abrupt but your fib can't be linear, so the .5 should look a bit more "off center".
Otherwise, it's a nice perspective to keep in mind.
Will see where the end of c/A (may be C/2 already but doubt it) land, with low volume and the ED it looks like very likely that wave 5 would  be 1.61 of wave 1, slower and longer, so patience.
In my opinion there is too much enthusiasm to validate a supercycle yet. But a new low/potential double bottom will come soon.

To get back to it, with a bit of EW (which have been working pretty well up to now)



We are definitely into 3 of 3 of c, it does show on macd, and the subminuette count confirm it. RSI still have some margin to go down before the next bounce.
I expect wave 5 to lack intensity, probably falling short and possibly to cause a double bottom. Too much selling pressure at the moment.
But let see where we going first.

Yes Brisance, i also mention the fib .0764 earlier today, and the daily sma 20, as potential target (at least for today), I'm glad you confirm that.

Yep that's my take for where to find the next support/bounce/corrective wave. That feel sharp as a third, still...

That's going to be interesting, will see if daily sma 100 or weekly sma 20 or the 0.764 fib in between can hold that one for now in china... Some bad crossing there on H4...

I don't consider people in here either bullish or bearish, that's why one of the greatest quality of people such as Masterluc or Brisance is to be reluctant at giving mid-term to long term price target. It's more about sharing opinion on the more probable scenario.  
Nothing's wrong with failure, sitting one out or thinking that price are more likely to decline than rise.
Respecting your fellow trader is essential, whatever method they use.

A common opinion seem to be that it's risky to not own bitcoin, while it's mostly true, I personally would prefer loosing a dozen on a bad downtrend  call, and buying back higher, when I actually have a confirmation of support below this new entry price. Right now, I haven't seen this confirmation yet.
So once again, to people commenting here, please again, understand there is nothing wrong with being cautious. It's not an antonym for bullish, but being prepare and open to various case scenario.

Hi Samurai

I'm not trying to say when to buy or sell, but up to now that the general shape I expect.
I don't think it can overlap and go above 850 on gox, support has probably turned into resistance.

Me too, I don't see any support above 2700cny, and I'm curious about your count Lucif, but i don't think we have even completed wave 3 of C (edit : may be 3 starting in a moment).
I'm still unsure whether it's a flat or zigzag, i'm more on the regular 3-3-5 side for now though. What about you ?

I have lot of respect for Lucif, one of the best analyst around here, and in the last 18 month I have never seen him being really wrong even when he was a bit wrong (or...).

I understood he considered a 3 year super cycle, with 2011 being the top of I, april the top of III, and this november the top of V.

Which would explain the similarity between now and 2011, usually wave I= wave 5 in length, shape and price target.
But that's also the reason why I doubt we have finished V.  May be 3 of V, more likely 1 of V. Which would explain the difference in length and target.
Plus, even within the cycle one of those wave need tis very likely to be extended, if I or III were, then they would invalidate each other ratio. And V definitely wasn't. The final wave even fell short.
But it's easy to mislabel, because major wave, minor wave, sub-wave of lesser degree and even subminuetette tend to replicate the same pattern as the historical one.

So unless this is a transition more than a correction, and the actual crash only happen in 18 month, after a period with  neither a sharp move up nor down, it's probably isn't the end of the super-cycle yet.

Yeah i agree with you, watching that level too (but it's pretty much done for), and looking at 4500cny. If either break, gox should join the other exchanges in the 700's.

Probably because after reading the tea leaves he might have wanted to be on the safe side and look at the TA thread, just in case
Anyway, i think once china do the next wave down, the coming fifth should finally help Gox breaking through support, what's your count Brisance ?

edit : yes Oda, and i'm starting to doubt this correction is a regular flat, wave B was way too long, not enough force in either direction. I think we'll know "how fast" better once wave 3 starts -very soon. If that's wrong and  it doesn't "drop like a rock" then it's a bad sign for the coming month.

I think it's because they didn't retrace as much as Gox/stamp during the up-move, so since PA were closer to the support level it was easier to start from there. but still, I agree, it's strange. Mostly since Gox has a "spread away" bid wall. Anyway, we getting closer to $841 there, then it should  catch-up with China.

Yes, this doesn't look like an attempt at a flash crash, the way that walls are position (cautiously high and holding well), sustaining the price to make it look like a consolidation but then break in a tick. It surely shows no volume, but what it also doesn't show is ; how fast they vanish and at what precise timing they do.
I'm afraid, their is no real intent to dump behind those well organized move. Attrition of the cash flow of the bull in a slow down trend seems more likely to me. Tiny move down after tiny move down, pushing them closer and closer of the consideration of the stop loss option.

Well If I were in that position and had interest in creating more than a flash crash but to accumulate coins over a longer period of time, I'd try to create delusion more than fear.

It doesn't mean it will work, but I think that's what is being try to be achieved.

It could have to do with a golden ratio, if the person assumed that the motion toward the peak at $266 started on Sunday, 7 October 2012, or 186.4 days before.
Then if in his idea the start of the motion toward the latest peak at $1242 started on 23/08/2013, then 115.2 days we would get us the golden ratio 1.61.
So by using length in time and not price, that could give the angle of 137.2 degree.

But that's getting beyond my maths skills, so i'd just say fib time zone/shooting apex/fractal theory applied to btc ?

I made this one today...

I found this chart and it's  pretty similar to the one being painted here.


But as much as I can  like the the fact that the pattern isn't misshape i don't like their proportion in time and space.

I don't know if you saw that triple top in the S&P 500, may be I'm not the only one to see time more relevant than price targets, so what about this  :



It would allow a bear market with a more realistic (understand higher than... a dollar or ten) lower target, and would place the end of the actual bull market later than now.

Staring with a significant low li'd see more {2} as a WXY, it make more sense to me on the scale of time.
The rule of  wave 3 being the longest wouldn't be broken, and the time between every waves 1 to 3 (and every sub-waves included ) would equal the time between every waves and sub-waves 4 to 5.

Also it would  match with the sentiment of people (when reaching past top/low)  and with the fact that $32 wasn't breach in April.
In my opinion only more people cashing out at higher prices to be a  millionaire would justify the wiping-out of most of bitcoin history.

i bought my first btc in october 2011.