Analysis

[Miz4r]

I don't think anyone knows what will happen now, it's really a 50/50 guess whether we'll break up or down from here. Better both have some fiat and BTC ready for when it breaks out. If we survive the entire weekend without a sell-off I think chances will be higher we are going up.

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[RyNinDaCleM]

Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

oh, it absolutely is scatterbrained. but if you want a tl;dr...

hypothesis (not properly tested, only observed a few times in the last year):

take the median mean between highest vwap and lowest vwap during a crash. if price bounces back and crosses median, then mainly stays below it in the first days up to two weeks following the crash, bear market more likely, otherwise bull market.

Ok, that clears up my question... (not really )
If it was indeed the median, then you are just describing a 50% fibonacci level which also happens to be the mean of 2 points anyway... Back to confusion :/

Edit:
I am guessing this should be performed on a linear chart, since a Log chart would have the 50% point (visually, anyway) off the center of the two points

Could well be a Fibonacci level, never said I discovered something new On the other hand, are Fibonacci levels regularly calculated on volume weighted prices?

Maybe let me clarify: I'm not trying to make big claims about the underlying cause (or trying to generalize the pattern). I've just noticed a pattern, and now am thinking about a way to putting this observation to a test (in a way that takes "intuition" out of the equation). But  in my original post, I just applied the method to our current situation, and concluded that I'm slightly leaning towards bearish continuation.

Sure! Fibo can be applied to any type of price chart. Fibo is everywhere, really.

I was checking it out using standard candlestick charts and it is interesting how it likes to create a range around this level. Now, the 38.2 and 61.8 levels reside just below and just above respectively, and are heavily used in target determination for retraces... and though the 50% isn't technically a fibo level, it is a round number, so it's included in the retracement tool on most charting apps. A large part of what you are observing is Fibo in action (falling short corresponds to a 38.2%, and rising above corresponds to the 61.8%). That said, I am curious to see if there is more going on here than just typical Fibo.

Please understand that I am not trying to debunk your observations. Only giving some constructive criticism with hopes of helping you to fine tune your methods.
You are one of the few regular posters that aren't so over-the-top with one sided bias, that I like to see what you have to say in your analyses.

[Brisance]

Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

oh, it absolutely is scatterbrained. but if you want a tl;dr...

hypothesis (not properly tested, only observed a few times in the last year):

take the median mean between highest vwap and lowest vwap during a crash. if price bounces back and crosses median, then mainly stays below it in the first days up to two weeks following the crash, bear market more likely, otherwise bull market.

Ok, that clears up my question... (not really )
If it was indeed the median, then you are just describing a 50% fibonacci level which also happens to be the mean of 2 points anyway... Back to confusion :/

Edit:
I am guessing this should be performed on a linear chart, since a Log chart would have the 50% point (visually, anyway) off the center of the two points

Could well be a Fibonacci level, never said I discovered something new On the other hand, are Fibonacci levels regularly calculated on volume weighted prices?

Maybe let me clarify: I'm not trying to make big claims about the underlying cause (or trying to generalize the pattern). I've just noticed a pattern, and now am thinking about a way to putting this observation to a test (in a way that takes "intuition" out of the equation). But  in my original post, I just applied the method to our current situation, and concluded that I'm slightly leaning towards bearish continuation.

Sure! Fibo can be applied to any type of price chart. Fibo is everywhere, really.

I was checking it out using standard candlestick charts and it is interesting how it likes to create a range around this level. Now, the 38.2 and 61.8 levels reside just below and just above respectively, and are heavily used in target determination for retraces... and though the 50% isn't technically a fibo level, it is a round number, so it's included in the retracement tool on most charting apps. A large part of what you are observing is Fibo in action (falling short corresponds to a 38.2%, and rising above corresponds to the 61.8%). That said, I am curious to see if there is more going on here than just typical Fibo.

Please understand that I am not trying to debunk your observations. Only giving some constructive criticism with hopes of helping you to fine tune your methods.
You are one of the few regular posters that aren't so over-the-top with one sided bias, that I like to see what you have to say in your analyses.

China's Fib Broken Plus lot's of Divergence between gox/btcchina going on.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DAFkqrrC/

[windjc]

I know I piss a few Bulls here off with my triangles "ElectricMucus & windjc" and lack of consolidation areas so if anyone knows me I like to see things from both sides of the fence and be totally impartial so to prove myself here is a Bullish prediction.


How about some Parallelograms?






In the short term if we get a serious breakdown of 870 that brings us under for more than a few hours the Bullish theory is gone. Every attempt under 870 lasted for a mere few hours so keep a close watch of 870 as it's been holding up since the 9th of December.

Just to clarify, you didn't piss me off. I respect the time you are taking to analyize thee charts and post them here. That is valuable and useful perspective to have.

I have been bearish for a week and am expecting to be bearish the rest of December. I just am giving the perma bears a good ribbing because we are not breaking down the way we were "suppose" to. And the longer we fight lower resistance levels and/or the longer we consolidate in a channel, the more bullish the market becomes.

In my opinion, barring some unforeseen catastrophic news, Bitcoin is headed north again soon. The only question is how long is the bear/pseudo-bear market going to last before we do. And right now the bears are not doing a very good job of pushing the market down.

[Brisance]

870

[sumantso]

870

Somebody's watching you

Take cover!!

[windjc]

Let's check in with our bullish theory.

I won't be trading today until more clarity over direction but here's an update none the less.

Very interesting indeed. We are now into Sunday, which is typically mildly bullish in anticipation of new funds on Monday. So, can we stay around this level for another day?

Could we simply be range trading between $850-$1050?  It sure as hell does NOT feel like it with everyone so bearish, but how bullish would it be if we were actually range trading? Very.

[#R#a#u#t#e#]

All this guessing.... You could also read tea leaves or go to the fortune teller of your choice with similar results! 

Try to underestand that the future is not determinated by the past, especially not in terms of BTC/USD! Obama has to fart and all your calculation becomes invalid...

[oda.krell]

Anyone else getting the eery feeling that luc's "long, painful slide down" prediction might become true after all?

[Lady_Luck]

Probably because after reading the tea leaves he might have wanted to be on the safe side and look at the TA thread, just in case
Anyway, i think once china do the next wave down, the coming fifth should finally help Gox breaking through support, what's your count Brisance ?

edit : yes Oda, and i'm starting to doubt this correction is a regular flat, wave B was way too long, not enough force in either direction. I think we'll know "how fast" better once wave 3 starts -very soon. If that's wrong and  it doesn't "drop like a rock" then it's a bad sign for the coming month.

[Lady_Luck]

I'm watching 820/838 very closely I have orders at the ready either side.

Yeah i agree with you, watching that level too (but it's pretty much done for), and looking at 4500cny. If either break, gox should join the other exchanges in the 700's.

[Brisance]

Bitcoin had a bounce off the low 800's the problem is the majority of those orders are market and not limit meaning the new limit bids are now relatively weak in comparison to all the market orders recently placed.

What this translates to is watch out for all the people placing those market orders trying to profit with no one to buy and thin support to fall on. If you place a market order on a bounce you need to be literally the first person to do it because there will be a lot of people without a chair when the music stops.

Watch for the next leg down when the market guys begin to panic.

You will observe this after a lot of market orders are placed on a bounce and weak buying appears as soon as the market guys start to see red flashing sell orders come in you will then observe lots of asks suddenly appear or simply a large sell off.

This is how you know the panic will soon begin.

[oda.krell]

In a way, I'm glad things are picking up speed. My position has been fiat > btc for a while now, so personally I wouldn't really mind whether it's a slow slide down or a rapid correction to the final bottom, but lucif's comments really worried me, especially because part of them already came true.

To remind you, he predicted (quite early, long before we hit 1200) that this rally will resemble more 2011 than 2013. That turned out to be (mostly) true: while the total increase was less than in April (factor 20 in the Q1 rally, factor 10 since October), it was also significantly faster.

The problem is, the other defining quality of the 2011 peak & correction was the extreme reluctance with which the market went down: more than half a year before it hit the bottom. Only afterwards did the uptrend resume. Which is why I would strongly prefer a quick, sharp correction and ultimately, capitulation, over a long drawn-out one.

[oda.krell]

In a way, I'm glad things are picking up speed. My position has been fiat > btc for a while now, so personally I wouldn't really mind whether it's a slow slide down or a rapid correction to the final bottom, but lucif's comments really worried me, especially because part of them already came true.

To remind you, he predicted (quite early, long before we hit 1200) that this rally will resemble more 2011 than 2013. That turned out to be (mostly) true: while the total increase was less than in April (factor 20 in the Q1 rally, factor 10 since October), it was also significantly faster.

The problem is, the other defining quality of the 2011 peak & correction was the extreme reluctance with which the market went down: more than half a year before it hit the bottom. Only afterwards did the uptrend resume. Which is why I would strongly prefer a quick, sharp correction and ultimately, capitulation, over a long drawn-out one.

This is why I day trade I never bought into the delusion Bitcoin could only go up like some unicorn.

Funny: Our assumptions are different but our actions are similar then. I do believe that btc will see a unicorn like ascent in the long run, hence, my goal is "land grab" i.e. maximizing my coin stash, but I'm not blind to corrections either, so I'm more than willing to believe we're going down substantially first.

[Lady_Luck]

I have lot of respect for Lucif, one of the best analyst around here, and in the last 18 month I have never seen him being really wrong even when he was a bit wrong (or...).

I understood he considered a 3 year super cycle, with 2011 being the top of I, april the top of III, and this november the top of V.

Which would explain the similarity between now and 2011, usually wave I= wave 5 in length, shape and price target.
But that's also the reason why I doubt we have finished V.  May be 3 of V, more likely 1 of V. Which would explain the difference in length and target.
Plus, even within the cycle one of those wave need tis very likely to be extended, if I or III were, then they would invalidate each other ratio. And V definitely wasn't. The final wave even fell short.
But it's easy to mislabel, because major wave, minor wave, sub-wave of lesser degree and even subminuetette tend to replicate the same pattern as the historical one.

So unless this is a transition more than a correction, and the actual crash only happen in 18 month, after a period with  neither a sharp move up nor down, it's probably isn't the end of the super-cycle yet.

[Brisance]

Let's all put our hands together and ride this red waterfall together.

On a serious note closed my shorts and I'm watching for an 800 bounce "if" we get one? RSI is getting into heavily oversold so perhaps 780/800 bounce? Update: 780 Bounce hurrah!

Have a look on Gox now between 805/845 those are all the "Market Order Guys" I was telling you about. The music is about to stop and not everyone will get a chair. Wait for it.

Mt.Gox is in Purple.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6IRWB3CP/

[invisiblehand]

Recently sold off some around 780 with the intention of buying back later

Any reading material you all recommend for TA?  Books and websites.  I have superficial understanding of it based on TA for Dummies (I think it was) and Investopedia

[samurai1200]

Recently sold off some around 780 with the intention of buying back later

Any reading material you all recommend for TA?  Books and websites.  I have superficial understanding of it based on TA for Dummies (I think it was) and Investopedia

Babypips.com's "school" section has decent cliff's-notes descriptions of all the popular TA shapes. Obviously, its based on Forex.

[Tzupy]

Gox ddosed again, while Bitstamp and BTC-E go down fast.

[oda.krell]

Looks like things are going down fast. I just watched it dive a whole $100 in less than an hour. This should be fast and quite painful

Like I said above: better than the alternative (*slow* and painful)