Analysis

[accord01]

Try number 2 for the price to break support at 630.  Second chance?

My guess is a ping (bounce off resistance).

Market depth shows lots of ask pressure and hardly any bid pressure. First 1000 btc on ask @ $645, first 1000 on bid @ $580.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html just fyi

 Guess was incorrect, whales took over.  Now to test 700. I  have a really hard time seeing a breakthrough here.  But I could be wrong again, because overstock.

FTFY
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/19/overstock-com-begin-accepting-bitcoin-2nd-half-2014/

this isn't even confirmed, plus they may not even act on it...

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[lebing]

Try number 2 for the price to break support at 630.  Second chance?

My guess is a ping (bounce off resistance).

Market depth shows lots of ask pressure and hardly any bid pressure. First 1000 btc on ask @ $645, first 1000 on bid @ $580.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html just fyi

 Guess was incorrect, whales took over.  Now to test 700. I  have a really hard time seeing a breakthrough here.  But I could be wrong again, because overstock.

FTFY
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/19/overstock-com-begin-accepting-bitcoin-2nd-half-2014/

this isn't even confirmed, plus they may not even act on it...

True, but it makes sense. They are looking for an edge vs the bigger guys and with all of the hype around bitcoin it makes sense for them to jump on the train to expand their market share and get free press. They have far more to gain than amazon or ebay, which is why I dont believe this is fake.

edit: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/12/19/overstock-com-to-accept-bitcoins-ceo-says-money-is-too-important-to-leave-in-the-hands-of-government-officials/?mod=MW_home_latest_news
Well, there is the confirmation.

[oda.krell]

(sorry for another sloppy short post)

next target for me: ~750 (mtgox), ~710 (bitstamp). breaking through those, and staying above them, would be confirmation for me that we're done with this correction, at least short term -- doesn't mean we can't enter a longer bear market, but I wouldn't expect another very sharp drop then in the next days at least if we cross those.

[zby]

Another wedge (not entirely finished) - what bitcoin will do with it this time?

[cAPSLOCK]

Another wedge (not entirely finished) - what bitcoin will do with it this time?

Rising wedges are supposedly bearish right?

[bassclef]

Another wedge (not entirely finished) - what bitcoin will do with it this time?

Rising wedges are supposedly bearish right?

Not unless it breaks through the trend line.

[zby]

Another wedge (not entirely finished) - what bitcoin will do with it this time?

Rising wedges are supposedly bearish right?

Yes - but in the past bitcoin had the tendency to not care about rising wedges - but this time there is also another barrier coinciding in mostly the same area - and so ... - I don't know.

[cAPSLOCK]

(sorry for another sloppy short post)

next target for me: ~750 (mtgox), ~710 (bitstamp). breaking through those, and staying above them, would be confirmation for me that we're done with this correction, at least short term -- doesn't mean we can't enter a longer bear market, but I wouldn't expect another very sharp drop then in the next days at least if we cross those.

Appreciate them even if they at short.

Well look at it try and try.  Moving well I to 700s

I haven't been this sick since a stint with day trading in the 90s.  I understand some TA ideas and having watched bitcoin swing its way through bubble pops I just decided I might swing trade (not day trade)  this one.  

Of course it so much easier said than done.  I'm in the black about 30 percent so far and have much of the profit in USD.  But I'm coin heavy again here...  And I'm watching charts all day like an addict.

I'd quit while I was ahead except I don't know what quitting is exactly anymore.

[oda.krell]

Aaah, like an annoying little clockwork: bouncing off (from below) 1h EMA150. Come on little buddy, you can do it!


(not sure if it can. this post does not constitute financial advice )

[cAPSLOCK]

Aaah, like an annoying little clockwork: bouncing off (from below) 1h EMA150. Come on little buddy, you can do it!


(not sure if it can. this post does not constitute financial advice )

Lol.

Considering the general technical climate we are in bouncing off is the bigger odds wouldn't you say...  Since breaking through implies change.

Then, when has btc ever been surprising?

[Argwai96]

a break through 700 will trigger that diagonal.... let us see

[samurai1200]

Gox 758. I think most of the resistance there is 775 (action from dec 6-8 and dec 16-17). Lines up with the wedge drawings from previous page of posts.

[Oldminer]

Try number 2 for the price to break support at 630.  Second chance?

My guess is a ping (bounce off resistance).

Market depth shows lots of ask pressure and hardly any bid pressure. First 1000 btc on ask @ $645, first 1000 on bid @ $580.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html just fyi

 Guess was incorrect, whales took over.  Now to test 700. I  have a really hard time seeing a breakthrough here.  But I could be wrong again, because overstock.

FTFY
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/19/overstock-com-begin-accepting-bitcoin-2nd-half-2014/

this isn't even confirmed, plus they may not even act on it...

True, but it makes sense. They are looking for an edge vs the bigger guys and with all of the hype around bitcoin it makes sense for them to jump on the train to expand their market share and get free press. They have far more to gain than amazon or ebay, which is why I dont believe this is fake.

edit: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/12/19/overstock-com-to-accept-bitcoins-ceo-says-money-is-too-important-to-leave-in-the-hands-of-government-officials/?mod=MW_home_latest_news
Well, there is the confirmation.

wow..soon people gonna wake up to the fact Bitcoin isnt just some play money to speculate with anymore.

[cAPSLOCK]

wow..soon people gonna wake up to the fact Bitcoin isnt just some play money to speculate with anymore.

With all due respect if you don't think BTC is a good speculative investment at this point in it's evolution then why the hell are you in this forum?

I can respect your opinion... why don't you respect the opinion of those here?

[lebing]

wow..soon people gonna wake up to the fact Bitcoin isnt just some play money to speculate with anymore.

With all due respect if you don't think BTC is a good speculative investment at this point in it's evolution then why the hell are you in this forum?

I can respect your opinion... why don't you respect the opinion of those here?

I think he was saying that its going to graduate from a speculative investment to a real, widely used currency...

[zby]

wow..soon people gonna wake up to the fact Bitcoin isnt just some play money to speculate with anymore.

With all due respect if you don't think BTC is a good speculative investment at this point in it's evolution then why the hell are you in this forum?

I can respect your opinion... why don't you respect the opinion of those here?

I think he was saying that its going to graduate from a speculative investment to a real, widely used currency...

Money is always speculative - you don't own it for it's own value - but you speculate that in the future someone will exchange something valuable to you for it.

[oda.krell]

Interesting. We're a bit stuck, it seems. Price bouncing between EMA150 and EMA200, briefly broke through the former but retraced quickly.

I sort of like the picture of the last 24h, higher highs & lows, despite being somewhat overbought  because of the quick recovery from 450/380 (mtgox/bitstamp). On the other hand, volume isn't playing along yet, so it could be a trap. Bid/ask is holding up very well, across all exchanges, that's another positive sign.

Adding it up, I see a slightly higher chance that we'll break through resistance upwards rather than drop again, but I wouldn't bet too much on it, I admit. Plus, the weekend is getting closer, and while the "weekend dip" is a questionable concept, it *is* easier on the weekend for a single large player to move the market in a desired direction (because of lower volume), so I'd be rather cautious now to make a large trade.

[shmadz]

Hello thread.

I can't believe I haven't been following this thread (or the previous incarnation) and I can't hope to read or comprehend most of it, but in last couple days, I've tried to catch up (impossible) and I think this is some of the most valuable information on the speculation board. Hats off to all contributors, and sorry to clutter up your thread, but...


I just felt the need to share some non-technical "feelings" from someone with a less technical opinion (which I suspect are driven mostly by technicals, lol)  Anyways, a few posts I wanted to respond to:

Anyone else getting the eery feeling that luc's "long, painful slide down" prediction might become true after all?

YES! this feels eerily similar to the way it felt after the 32 bust, and the 266 (or whatever) bust. I'm hoping that this will last much longer than the 266 one though. 

Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.

I was seeing the same thing. I thought the natural progression line should be something like this:

Obviously with a few pit stop along the way.

I very much hope this is the case, I get quite anxious when the price is too high.

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

Me too. When we were at 1000  On my trading account I was 80% fiat, 20% coins; then at 450 I was 20% fiat, 80% coins. Now, I've moved some extra coins back into storage to get me back closer to a 50-50 ratio and I'm looking forward to taking a "bitcoin vacation" (not a vacation paid for by bitcoin, more like just exiting the market for a while to relax a bit, this trading stuff is stressful for me)

Anyhow, thanks again to all contributors, fascinating stuff!


--------
(*DISCLOSURE*) I'm a miner, and my market position and perception is not good for anyone who does not have steady btc income. I simply place sells above and buys below.

Worst case for me are 2 scenarios:

1) Bitcoin fails. My account is cleaned out and I have 0 fiat and 100% bitcoin, but bitcoin is worthless. No big deal, I've been skimming off the top for years and I still have mining hardware that should be able to mine whatever the next coin might be. (of course if SHA-256 is broken then my ASIC's are worthless too, but my main advantage is my low overhead, but that's off-topic)

2) Bitcoin takes off and I missed the boat and I am now 0 bitcoin and 100% fiat. Oh bother. I only hold 10% of my BTC on the exchange and I can always make more. I can either just withdraw the fiat (and face potential tax consequences) or just leave the fiat there and try to catch some dips...

[myself]

i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it



info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp


have a nice day

[YoYa]

i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it



info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp


have a nice day

.5 retrace! MY GOD MAN! Wait until the bears here this!