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So...a bubble.
A reverse bubble would be unrealistically low prices.
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Looks like we did just get the big bottom of the market! $30,000 it was. 54% drop from high seems reasonable for the big bottom considering there was no blow-off top and their won't be a crypto winter but just a lull for a few months before the price we're pushing to new ATHs again.
I figured $40k would be the bottom, turned out it was $30k but it's finally in. The panic can stop now they we've hit bottom prices and fiercely bounced off as the bottom is rejected.
This guy...it seems like if we went to $20k he'd call it the true true bottom. |
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So the mempool hasn't been this empty for a while and some people have told me of feeless tx'es going through. What's next?
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Was sleeping. What caused this dump?
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I have offically joined the ranks of retired WO gentleman. Working just seems kinda pointless
I think this might be becoming a thing... my last day is April 2nd.. officially retiring early. Sold a smallish chunk to diversify so that if we have an 80% crash, I can ride it out without selling the dip... but yeah.. mostly the same plan. good feelings  8+ years later I'm retired with a close to double-digit $million fortune. What an incredible experience it's been.
Congratulations to all of you. This could be an interesting poll -- who of us has retired thanks to bitcoin? It's not my time......yet! too small of a fish. Don't want to get into any of your specifics or your OPsec, but $50 per week for 7 years would have put relatively "small fish(es)" into a decent place... - nearly 22 bitcoin and a value of nearly $1.3 million - with "ONLY" about a $18.5k investment spread over 7 years. There could have been a problem with anyone to attempt to be consistent in such investing into BTC over the years and even having some sense of frontloading the investment stake could have caused the BTC accumulation levels to become MOAR higher than those listed in the above linkening... and another thing would have been NOT getting shaken from coins at various points along the way - or temptations to sell some of dee lil fiends to try to accumulate more coins and take those selling actions at the wrong time or failing to buy at the right time (getting too greedy or to smart). Another thing, as we have been discussing is trying to figure out how much is enough coins based on a variety of factors including ongoing volatility and expected volatility - and maybe another doubling or tripling of value could help... which does seem reasonably reachable within this cycle (odds of such may be approaching 30% or greater? I know some peeps are putting odds of another 2x or 3x or even 5-20x this cycle at greater probabilities than I am assigning, but hey, I really hate counting any chickens before they are hatched - even though I am NOT at all in any kind of disagreement about either the asymmetric nature of the bitcoin bet or that the odds for having "great" upside performance in bitcoin seems to be way higher than any other asset that I can imagine investing into at this time). I can't be consistent about brushing my teeth, let alone investing $50 per week or whatever over 7 years. |
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My advice, don't give out advice. Or at the very least tell them they are better off not investing, you won't be blamed if there is a bigger correction.
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Well, as I said it's best to have fiat (shitcoin) for this one. Which is why I won't do it. But, basically you buy however many BTC on the spot for current price of 55000. At the exact same time you sell a future, perhaps Sep 26th for this example, for the same number of BTC at a current price of 62700. profit equals 7,700 minus fees per coin
This can be done using CBOE and CME as well as many others, perhaps less reputable exchanges.
The risk for this trade is couter-party only and of course opportunity cost (there is no possiblity of capital gains or losses). Not your keys not your coins. Thing is it's all about levels of risk and what you are comfortable with in the end as well as your goals. Just remember nothing is risk free. Even holding your own keys is not risk free, there are roughly 4million inaccessible coins to prove that.
*Above prices are taken from Deribit.
How does this work exactly? I would love a bit more ELI5. I posted a link earlier, here it is again. https://blog.bitmex.com/how-to-arbitrage-bitcoin-futures-vs-spot/The WO sometimes must be combed thoroughly, but it usually does deliver good info - be it bitcoin or digital cameras. Or you're just halftrolling and... username checks out?  Not trolling. What does WO stand for? |
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Now 20% with no risks and a perfect hedge? ELI5
I think explaining anything to you is not a good use of my time, however, that is an investment that you might be more interested in as it is perfectly suited to those who hold fiat, rather than bitcoin, and don't want to expose themselves to the risk of capital gains or losses. the bolded part it the issue (seems to me) most here are just long term hodl mode peeps. but please explain, i wouldnt mind it. im not too bright but am good at learning from my mistakes. ive run napkin math and i almost always would have come out ahead if i straight up hodled btc instead of trying fancy stuff like that in my endeavors of the past. because it was too easy to lose compared to the almost 100% gaurentee that btc will rise over the long term. hodling is hands off, just sit back and relax mode. perfect for me. fancy stuff you have to actively watch and worry about.. nah ill pass at the moment. Well, as I said it's best to have fiat (shitcoin) for this one. Which is why I won't do it. But, basically you buy however many BTC on the spot for current price of 55000. At the exact same time you sell a future, perhaps Sep 26th for this example, for the same number of BTC at a current price of 62700. profit equals 7,700 minus fees per coin This can be done using CBOE and CME as well as many others, perhaps less reputable exchanges. The risk for this trade is couter-party only and of course opportunity cost (there is no possiblity of capital gains or losses). Not your keys not your coins. Thing is it's all about levels of risk and what you are comfortable with in the end as well as your goals. Just remember nothing is risk free. Even holding your own keys is not risk free, there are roughly 4million inaccessible coins to prove that. *Above prices are taken from Deribit. How does this work exactly? I would love a bit more ELI5. |
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Looks like we're headed down for a bit
No problem, probably good to cool down a bit, shake some weak hands out. I wouldn’t mind a bit of sideways, low volatility before we start moving up again. The market is heating up, lately. dips became shallower, times of going sideways got shorter. This is why i considered Feb, by looking at my silly lines i was choosing the 23th. EDIT: Is it just me or does my avatar look really like laser eyes or more like laser glasses, i mean John Lennon -stlye? Laser eyes, Superman-style. |
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For anyone considering selling covered calls, just keep in mind this could be a very expensive decision
There is an outside chance that Bitcoin could go to crazy number this year. A $3.5k payment for giving away all the upside on a $200k sale in December 21 may not be a very good deal at all. It’s only a good deal if you are happy selling at $200k no matter what. Because the price could be $500k at that time. In that scenario, you just lost $296.5k in value.
Yes this is the risk, one has to remember you are doing this for the income and will forgo, if necessary capital gains. However, your example is not the best. Right now you could earn 3.5k on an option with strike price of 60k that expires in 2 weeks (5th March). Or, 3.2k an an option with strike price of 72k that expires in a little of 4 weeks (25th March). These 2 I mention also offer capital gains if the price expires over the strike price. I would only sell one month options at most. Options are still hard for me to grasp. As far as I understand the moment you try options, you are 'naked' buying and selling and that is very bad. How do you cover? |
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I want to preface this post by saying that I have not studied economics, and these are just my blissful wishes.
For a while this little scenario has been playing in my head:
Say you have 1 Bitcoin. The price is say $50k. At any point in time you sell, you will get 50k, if the price, however, drops below to say $40k, you have a perceived loss of $10k, yep you still have your 1 BTC, but you can buy less USD than you could before. There will come a day when Bitcoin is not valued in USD, but until then, we will stick to the basics.
When stablecoins were first introduced, I did not read about them nor understand them, and ignorantly thought it was a tool to lock the price of a pair such that if the price did drop by $10k, you'd not be unaffected but if it increases, your portfolio would still rise. Because trading is a zero sum game, this is impossible but I still want to continue.
The same goes if we reverse the situation. If I sell 1 Bitcoin at $50k, yes I will have $50k, but if the price increases of Bitcoin to $60k I still have a perceived loss of $10k. The reason I say perceived is because you cannot lose something you never had, right? But some people like me don't experience situations like this as simply perceived loss, for me it's a real loss.
If I decide to buy back Bitcoin with $50k, while the price is $60k, I can only buy 0.83btc, all of a sudden I have a 0.1666 btc perceived loss.
Wouldn't it have been great if my money would still somehow buy me that 1BTC? It's just a dream because if this was possible, you'd have a way to infinitely multiply your holdings.
With that story out of the way, what methods exist, if they even exist, to reduce this perceived loss? Hedging?
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Definitely Ethereum! You can easily trade Ethereum for cash or assets like gold instantly with incredibly low fees. The high liquidity associated with bitcoin makes it a great investment vessel if you're looking for short-term profit. Digital currencies may also be a long-term investment due to their high market demand. Say what now? It costs $20 to do a single eth transaction. |
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A coin that promises and delivers actual low-fee transactions where the fee is not affected by congestion.
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So I've been playing around with DeFi with a small bit of some of my old ETH and I went to "stake" some coins and the gas fee was over $2k. I canceled the transaction but I don't see ETH lasting much longer as it is. I've warned people away from ETH due to how overloaded it has all become and it appears that it is unusable at this point.
It's true, the gas fees are ludicrous. |
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Hey Team, for nVidia cards I use T-Rex, because of this great feature: "--keep-gpu-busy". Which means, if the miner has no internet connection or some trouble with pause-instability, it will still fake mine with full load. Especially now in the winter days and in a colder environment a connection loss wouldn't damage the GPU's because they are always under load. Is it possible to create a similar feature for the TRM? This would make your miner even better P.S. Thanks for the 0.8.0 version! Huh? That sounds horrible. Wasting electricity to do nothing? Mining in the long term does cause degradation, and this has been known since like 2011. |
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GME hitting 430 in in before hours trading. A sight to see indeed, I wonder if it becomes a 100 billion dollar company. If these gamblers are pissed at wall street and all the games they play, what ever profits they get they should plow into Bitcoin. that would be another fuck you. Edit: 450 Edit2: Blown away by these shorts apparently GME is still 140% short, this thing could go to 10,000 if the run keeps going https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-have-some-bad-news-gamestop-shortsEuropean eToro has even stopped trading GME until NYSE opens, those fucks. I think everywhere is going to block retail on this. Those shorts haven't even been covered yet according to ZH article. This thing could bring down a lot of people. What do you mean by not covered yet? |
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