This depends on the previous luck and how many shelved shares you have in the system, and how evenly distributed they are.  If your hashrate is consistent, and you have been mining for a while, then there would be not ever be too much change to your "Estimated Change".  You will have a lot of shelved shares, and they will be spread consistently through the stack of shelved shares.  Your new shares (i.e., shares contributed in the current round) receive credit, but at the same time the shelved shares stack is getting bigger, so as the round continues, your older shelved shares drop off past the threshold, so they are not going to be paid out.

As an example, let's say the pool expects 1000 shares to mine a block.  Let's say that your hashrate is 1/100 of the pool, so you have mined 10 of the most recent 1000 shares in the shelved share stack.  You have been mining consistently, so let's say that these shares are evenly distributed throughout the most recent 1000 shares: your shares are #1, #101, #201, #301, ..., #901.  

Ok, That's the status of the stack right now when a new block starts.  If a new block were to be found by the pool immediately, before you have submitted any shares, probably all 10 of these shares will be paid out: #1, #101, through #901 will all be paid out.  So you will receive payment for 10 shares in that block, and all of them will be shelved shares.  All of these shares are removed from the stack, and your older shelved shares will be moved higher in the stack.  

But now let's say that the block isn't found immediately.  Let's say that it is still a lucky round, 200% luck: a block is found after 500 shares.  So your shelved shares are now incremented by 500: the share that you had in the stack that was originally #1, is now #501; the share that you had as #101, is now #601; etc.  So what was previously #501 is now #1001 and would NOT get paid out in this block, and neither would the shares that were previously #601, #701, #801, #901.  However, this is counterbalanced by the fact that you have been mining in this round as well, so you have new shares that now occupy positions #401, #301, #201, #101, and #1.  So you are still getting paid for 10 shares in this round!  5 of them are shelved shares, and 5 of them are newer shares from this round.  Now that these are paid out, your 5 new shares are gone from the stack, and 5 shelved shares are also gone from the stack as well.  But this means that the older shelved shares now move up in position: The share that was originally #501 is now #1 in the shelved share stack, #601 is now #101, etc.  (So #501 went from being #501, to #1001, to #1)

So if you are mining consistently with Eligius for a long time, and your hash rate has stayed relatively constant, then your "Estimated Change" will stay relatively constant.  If you switch back and forth, or have mining trouble, or whatever, then your "Estimated Change" can vary greatly depending on pool luck and exactly where your shelved shares are in the stack.

Your actual award is "As of last block:".  It went up from 0.1977789BTC to 0.21367375BTC.  The "Estimated Change:" is based on what would happen if the pool found a block at that very moment.  In the 1st pic, the round has been going for 01:19:26.  You have submitted a lot of shares in that time, so you would get .00884507 BTC if the pool found a block at that very moment.  In the 2nd pic, the round has been going for 00:29:57.  At that point, you have only submitted roughly 3/8 of the shares that you submitted at the time that you took the screenshot of the previous block.  (30 minutes vs. 80 minutes)

The system is based on Proportional Payment System.  Your "Estimated Change" goes down to 0 with each new round, and goes up as you submit shares.  (Except for taking into account unpaid / shelved shares from recent blocks -- then your Estimated Change might be greater than 0 when a new round starts.)  Your overall Shares Rewarded is at 98.75%, which is pretty high, so you don't have very many shelved shares to pay out.

Every round, while the round has >100% luck, for every 10 minutes of hashes your "Estimated Change" should be a little more than +.001 BTC.  Once the round drops below 100% luck, this number will decrease.

...

I am writing a new blog article, and I will be discussing BTC.  My piece will be why everyone should own some gold, have some CA$H and own some BTC.  Re BTC, I did want to show some of these changes (new miners at blockchain.info's mining pool stats), which seem to be fairly dramatic over the past few days.


Today, I noticed "AntPool" appeared there for the first time (that I have seen).

Would AntPool be related to the manufacturer of the AntMiners?  Another example of the ASIC makers mining with the machines they make (before delivery to their customers)?

THANK YOU for any help!

      

We should be in fail-safe now/soon/eventually/?

My miners status changed to:

         Unpaid Balance   Shares Rewarded
As of last block:      0.00000000 BTC      100.00%
Estimated Change:   +0.18977860 BTC   -3.65%
Estimated Total:      0.18977860 BTC      96.35%

That is with 5TH/s.  The above is not normal.

And the queue shows:

Payout Queue


Total: 0.00000000 BTC
Block Count: 1

Number   Address   Age   Balance
Note: There are also 1426 addresses with timeout balances less than 10 TBC but more than 2 TBC, totalling 0.00000000 BTC which are not included in the automated payout queue and will be paid manually.


But the back-end is running fine and my miners are mining away happily with shares being accepted!!!

Hmm. thanks for that link. I was looking to buy just one and $259 shipped is not too bad. That seems to be the lowest I have seen after shipping.

Since 5/11/14 there have been 28 payouts to Eligius wallet 18d3HV2bm94UyY4a9DrPfoZ17sXuiDQq2B unspent, at 25 coins and 600 a coin is 420,000.00 someone is planning a vacation and we will be the ones financing it but can you really blame them. It would be nice to find a pool that was totally without human weakness. Eligius is doing the best I'm sure and it can't be easy. I have been trying to do some programming myself to crack a wallet and that's minor compared to managing this monster. I even tried to set up solo mining with just one rig and a server and that was a waste of 5 days, but a lot learned. I have much more respect for people who can manage this and they deserve compensation even if a few kids and cats have to go hungry for a day.
Thanks for your hard work and service and please if you ever decide you have had enough and are going to retire at least have the balls and respect to let us know and say good bye. Not like some people that just up and disappear. Everyone has the right to better them selves and the current system denies most of us that opportunity even when we put in 40+ hours a week. I really believe that bitcoin is going to be that
vehicle that will better a lot of people that otherwise wouldn't have the opportunity. They current system is outdated and inefficient so something is gotta change and right now this is the only game going and it is really up to people such as yourself that dedicate their time and skill to better the system and keep people like me in the game. I will make my ROI in another month and after that it's all retirement funds. Anyways BLAH BLAH BLAH! Cheers and keep up the good work!
https://blockchain.info/address/1RCodeej35kS9rGMG7HsbZmB4U8n6mg7D
https://blockchain.info/address/18d3HV2bm94UyY4a9DrPfoZ17sXuiDQq2B

I have 27 S1 coupons that are about to expire on the 29th. Send me a PM with your bitmain userid, let me know how many you need, and they are yours for free.

Well at .419 (x2) I can't buy but at .32 I'd take at least six more right now.

I guess if sales slow BITMAIN will do whatever makes the most sense for them.  

We should all also remember they have been the best H/W seller by a wide margin.  No pre-order nonsense.  No missed dates...etc.

Could you post a link where are you getting them in quantities?
10x

Are the Server Psu's the best way to power the S1's?  Im thinking about ordering 13 more because they're so cheap now.

Hello there Goldar,

sure can be switched on and off with a mini switch.

Let me build one and revise the thread.

Keep following the thread.

A couple things could be going on. First, your payment may be split between different blocks. If you look at the queue (when stats are up) you will see that from time to time people have payments in two pieces that cross a block boundary. The other thing that could be going on is that the pool pays out closer to what you earned prior to the existing block when you are paid. In other words, the "as of last block" amount not "estimated total." The rest gets added to your next payout. If your payout is less than "as of last block" and you aren't split between different blocks, then I don't have any idea what could be wrong.

I'm not sure what you expected when you got here..

There are plenty of people on these forums that have been through it all and around again
They are akin to all of the scams/dodgy dealings that go on around these parts of town

You only have to take a look at what a company like Spondoolies is doing and put all the following into perspective

1. You're offering a product that blows everything on the market currently out of the water.. not even by a small amount.. by a factor of almost 4/1. This would almost be the equivalent of an unknown CPU maker popping up selling a 64core 12GHZ processor.. Yet the information provided on the actual machine is sketchy at best..To achieve these sort of numbers you would need to be at 20nm manufacturing or below.. I mean AMD and NVidia aren't even there yet!

2. Just in the first 3 pages of posts your mannerism have come across and complete unprofessional. You're going to get sceptical people questioning your product and to retaliate already as you have not something a person in a company with this sort of technology would do

3. Transparency especially in Bitcoin is paramount to success. Every question you dodge is another tick in the sceptics check-list.

To be honest it doesn't even matter about all of this.. the fantastic claims of your product is the biggest red flag hurdle you will need to overcome
Prove your hardware works, post videos/screenshots of it working with time/date stamps, allow Escrow from Trusted forum members and send review units to Trusted forum members..

Until you can do this it doesn't matter where you're located.. how bad your spelling is ... I won't use the word scam I'm going to say you have an illegitimate product

Finally a valid question. Are you asking me personally where am i at, or where is the company HQ?