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My withdrawal/delay info, inspired by db:
2013-04-11: 2xxx EUR, arrived 2013-05-27 (46 days)
2013-04-16: 3xxx EUR, arrived 2013-06-11 (56 days)
2013-05-03: 7xxx EUR, arrived 2013-07-22 (80 days)
My last one arrived today, after 80 days of waiting! |
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TL;DR — he claims that SEPA EUR and PLN withdrawal backlog is at 1st week of june
Sadly not true. My SEPA EUR withdrawals from 2013-04-19 and onwards are still stuck at "confirmed". Not true indeed. Also my May 3 withdrawal is still at "confirmed". So the EUR SEPA delay is approaching 3 MONTHS. "May take up to 3 weeks", "Backlog is at 1st week of June". Fucking liars. |
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Just popping in to say I also enjoy this thread.
+1 Keep posting lucif, this thread sparked my interest in TA and I've learned a lot from you! A few days ago I was just wondering why your ignore button was so bright... I still have no idea why so many people put you into ignore; I'm curious to know that, but I've never weighted your posts based on that thing! Actually, apart from the curiosity about "why", I never cared.
Also this. Thanks Rampion for telling the story behind this mystery. Anyway, just wanted to point out that there's probably lot of people like me who appreciate what you're doing although not taking actively part in the conversation! |
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My withdrawal/delay info, inspired by db:
2013-04-11: 2xxx EUR, arrived 2013-05-27 (46 days)
2013-04-16: 3xxx EUR, arrived 2013-06-11 (56 days)
2013-05-03: 7xxx EUR, arrived 2013-07-22 (80 days)
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rEssKDdagSGP1WTch6WUYoDirWYkVTEgmB
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Thread is lagging bad! 890 vs. 1180. POST POST POST!
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Shrewd Finn. I would not feel safe sending large amount of my money to Slovenia or Russia.
But Poland is ok?  |
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So carpe diem and spread the word!
IMO better version:  Also: Interestingly enough, several Bitcoin-related apps started spiking on the Spanish iPhone market over the weekend. Bitcoin Gold shot up in the Spanish iPhone Finance category from 498 to 72, and another app called Bitcoin Ticker zoomed from 526 to 52 in just one day. A leading service called Bitcoin App jumped from 194 to 151 between Friday and Sunday as Spaniards brooded over the Cyprus crisis.  |
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i live in a small place on the edge of akershus / østfold, and ive gotten a few of the shop owners interested in bitcoin  hopefully i can go buy groceries etc with bitcoins in a few months  That gives me an idea. Instead of having the Bitcoin conferences in big cities like London, New York, Prague where we are not noticed, we should have the conference in a small town where it makes a much bigger impression. In most countries, there are regional Tourist Authorities that try to attract conferences to their resorts, especially in the low season. This can be used as a leverage for bitcoin adoption. So we say to a big hotel/resort that we will take 200 hotel rooms if they agree to accept bitcoin for payment. And simultaneously we say to the local chamber of commerce that we will bring 300 conference attendees to their town if the local businesses add bitcoin to their payment options. That seems like a decent plan. I bet a lot of bitcoiners would be willing to trek to a more out of the way destination for a goal like that. I doubt that "If your local businesses accept bitcoin then we'll come" is the way to go, but more like "We're coming, tell your local businesses we have bitcoins to spend and we're going to buy where they are accepted." With the exception of the venue itself perhaps. Shop around until you find a satisfactory venue that will accept coin then go tell chamber of commerce, local media etc. Might work even better for like a week long bitcoin party/vacation/conference. great idea. Perhaps a low cost area as well ? Poland, Latvia ? Thailand, Phillipines ? +1 for Thailand. Bitcoin2013 in Thailand and 2014 again in Europe... and in Finland of course (by then every business accepts bitcoins here).  |
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I've send question about this to gox support. Will let you know what's the answer.
So there's the respond: "It has been confirmed by our developer that this is real. " Wow. So did it ever end up on bitcoincharts' market depth chart? |
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This is some fucked up shit. Why oh whyyy I don't have 100 250 posts yet - want to make an exception Matthew? |
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So it is thus accurate to say that I prefer 32k BTC instead of 10% of SatoshiDICE, but I would not prefer 15k BTC instead of 10% of SatoshiDICE. My investment preference only shifts to the BTC at the 32k for 10% exchange rate. Further, I wouldn’t sell another 10% for an additional 32k btc, for at that margin my preference shifts back to SD.
If some portion of the Bitcoin investment world has a matching inverse time preference to to mine, and is thus willing to pay 32k BTC for 10% of SD, then we all have a deal and the exchange is made. Otherwise, my exchange preference and that of the market do not align, and we continue on as we were.
Are you planning to call off this IPO since the second tranche is practically untouched after 24 hrs and the third one should also be released by any moment now? Seems like your conditions above (emphasis mine) are not going to be met. What price you're going to use when buying back shares? I mean, if someone is now buying in for .0034 and then you decide to cancel the IPO and buy back for .0032 there's immediate 6% loss (plus possible MPEx/GLBSE fees etc). Didn't find a clause for this when glancing over the conditions. No intention of "calling off" anything. If shares don't get bought, then I get to keep the dividends to myself. No biggie. Ok. Just thought you might have something particular in mind for which you need exactly 32k (personal or fixed 3.2k budgeted for that ad campaign, now it's only getting 640 btc). What about those remaining shares, keeping them for sale or removing after certain period of time? Might even end up buying some shares after all. Have really mixed feelings about this IPO though, let's see what happens. |
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So it is thus accurate to say that I prefer 32k BTC instead of 10% of SatoshiDICE, but I would not prefer 15k BTC instead of 10% of SatoshiDICE. My investment preference only shifts to the BTC at the 32k for 10% exchange rate. Further, I wouldn’t sell another 10% for an additional 32k btc, for at that margin my preference shifts back to SD.
If some portion of the Bitcoin investment world has a matching inverse time preference to to mine, and is thus willing to pay 32k BTC for 10% of SD, then we all have a deal and the exchange is made. Otherwise, my exchange preference and that of the market do not align, and we continue on as we were.
Are you planning to call off this IPO since the second tranche is practically untouched after 24 hrs and the third one should also be released by any moment now? Seems like your conditions above (emphasis mine) are not going to be met. What price you're going to use when buying back shares? I mean, if someone is now buying in for .0034 and then you decide to cancel the IPO and buy back for .0032 there's immediate 6% loss (plus possible MPEx/GLBSE fees etc). Didn't find a clause for this when glancing over the conditions. |
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Not sure what your "p/s" vs "p/e" distinction is, though?
If you calculate your share (1.9%) straight from the bets, that's what you get in, ie. revenue (or "sales" in Price/Sales ratio). You have to deduct any expenses you have from that number to get your profit (or "earnings" in Price/Earnings ratio). Your expenses per day are 4.68 BTC thus your avg. expected profit per day is 99.69 BTC - 4.68 BTC = 95.01 BTC. Same thing with monthly/yearly figures. Your investors will not receive your revenue, but profits, ie. net income where your expenses have been taken into account. That's why P/E is used in valuation, not P/S. Like dooglus said: The performance of the site is certainly very impressive, but it would be better to have your statistics be correct too. There's no need to exaggerate them.
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And annual dividend yield of IPO prices is 19.15%. Why are you defrauding your investors?
Oh noes, he is *only* paying out 19.15% a year! What a rip off! I could totally get that by investing in the fiat world at ... um ... somewhere? I think "defraud" refers to the incorrect math being done... Well, really made it too convenient for him to quote only that part of the msg. |
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UPDATED STATS (Aug 24) When the IPO was announced about 6 days ago, the P/E ratio was 10x. Some people said that was too high of a valuation and we've been debating this as is proper. I updated the stats today to reflect the past week of numbers, as well as added a new metric showing P/E based on past 30 days (not based on all time performance). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dG5SQklHZG4wRm1GMW9DRWpMMW5UQkE#gid=0Current P/E based on all-time performance: 8.79x Current P/E based on past 30 days performance: 4.72x Thus, if SatoshiDICE remains flat from here, and neither grows nor shrinks in usage from actual past 30 days' performance, it's priced at a 4.72x multiple. Annual dividend yield of IPO prices is 21.20% I can't stress enough that all these numbers are based on actual real-life performance, they are not wild-eyed estimates of possible future growth figures, etc. I think it will be hard to continue to argue that this asset is priced unreasonably. You're still calculating P/S ratios, not P/E ratios. Also, you can't use 320k as your numerator when calculating these P/S ("P/E") ratios, since you plan to sell most of your shares with higher prices, making effective avg. price of your share as .00345, not .00320. Correct P/E (not P/S) ratios are: Current P/E based on all-time performance: 9.95x (down from 11) Current P/E based on past 30 days performance: 5.22x And annual dividend yield of IPO prices is 19.15%. Why are you defrauding your investors? |
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I stand corrected (partially). Correct P/E is 11, not 10 or 15. Didn't realise you're still suffering that massively from variance. Edit: To be clear, your actual revenue per day is 72.35 btc, expenses 4.69 btc and profit 67.66 btc. Then, the projected daily/annual profit (based on zero growth in revenue/expenses and statistical house edge) is 86.48/31,566 btc (not the 91.17/33,278 mentioned above, which is indeed revenue, not profit - the difference is expenses). |
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Do not get my wrong, I hope you guys sell out, it would be nice to know people are willing to wait 15 years to break even. I just sadly do not think that is realistic right now. We will see.
Wait 15 years to break even... what are you talking about? If SatoshiDICE didn't grow at all (which it will) and you were never able to sell the share (which you can), then it would take about 10 years to break even. Maybe he talks about actual profits (65 BTC daily), not some mysterious "expected" profits/earnings (4,798.63 BTC x 0.019). You know, E in that P/E ratio is called Earnings, not r Evenue (for a reason). You're happily calling your revenue as your ("expected") profits/earnings. Profits/earnings is normally something you get after deducting expenses which, btw., include advertising costs which "will be increased to between $500-$1,000 per month" (from "$100-$300 range") therefore weakening your E and making P/E ratio even higher. So people, please stop using P/E 10 when speaking about this IPO, since the correct P/E ratio is 15 (345,000 / 65 x 365). Since the site will grow, and since you can sell your share whenever, the equation changes substantially. A conservative estimate with a doubling of site revenue within 2-3 years means you'd have made 100% within 1-2 years because the stock price would double to maintain the same 10x p/e valuation. The attractiveness of such an investment to professional investors should be apparent.
No, it doesn't mean that. Again, you're speaking about revenues and totally forgetting (rising) expenses. Secondly, P/E ratio can and most likely will change over time, reflecting eg. changes in business environment and profitability of your venture or simply due to changes in stock/market price. P/E isn't some static figure you can shove down your "professional investors'" throats and make them follow it blindly, but a dynamic ratio which measures a variety of factors reflected either in stock/market price or earnings of your venture. Inability to both understand this business dynamic/logic behind P/E ratio and distinguish revenue from profits/earnings is alone sufficient reason for me not invest in this venture. |
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it's like Magic; it just won't go down. A drop from $12 to $10.80 ...is what, going up? lol the spike to $12 was due to the volatility from the $1B glitch. you know as well as i that $10.80 is not anywhere near as deep as you want it to drop to. afterall, you sold at just over $11 where we are now. hehe, not to mention that 'high to low' spread ≠ drop Not to mention that gox also cancelled most of the asks during the glitch. I'm surprised the price didn't top higher. Bullish sign for me. |
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