...then cut it in half to make sure it's not gold-plated tungsten.
Beat me to it. This is why I'd never buy a precious metal, especially gold. How can you ever be sure it's real? Fairly simple XRF + thermal conductivity + resistivity tests will completely guarantee that a bar of gold is what it says on the face. For extra paranoia there's more complex ultrasonic testing. Thanks guys, I was always interested for real when and if one day gold would be needed but there's bitcoin now  If someone is desperate to sell it to you for bitcoin, it is probably real. Gold isn't doing too well at the moment. If they don't care too much, it's probably fake. |
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The price is not even halfway to top. This seems clear, there is not even need for technicals. This time we are going mainstream for REAL and big money wants in. I won't surprise for the interim top being +$2,500 - and 5 figures in the next 12/24 months.
Bitcoin is steadily arriving to its tipping point: it either succeeds or becomes one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history.
We're not ready for mainstream yet, but agree, this bubble is far from over. |
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I don't think China is leading the price any more. Just buy when you are comfortable. Choose a price a bit below the current price that you are comfortable with, then place a bid just below that, and wait. Short timescales in bitcoin are just random noise, ignore them.
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I agree with most of your post, but I think we are well into the early adopter phase, if not through it already -- actually this timing is what worries me the most.
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Okay, I wasn't going to do it, but I'm going to do it. I'm going to drop the conspiracy theory thing.
I do know that the major exchanges have LARGE holdings of bitcoins. And I assume they themselves can put buy and sell orders into the market (with it being fairly anonymous).
That being said... I'm not saying another word.
: )
cj
To be honest, people have been tearing their hair out for days trying to decide which way the market would go. People spent lots of coins painting that double top picture, but other big holders were fighting back. Remember that with all downturns, the real intentions of the big holders who dump on the way down is to accumulate. However, now there are so many holders that it was harder for these bears to drive the price as low as they liked, and so you could clearly see sentiment turning. A couple of stronger than expected rebounds was enough to prove that the markets still have legs, so bears got back in before it was too late. If they haven't lost all their coins, they will try again later at a big profit-taking dip. |
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alt-coins may be valuable in the future, but do your own due diligence, buy something that no-one is talking about and accept it as a sunk cost.
Every time you hear about how XXX is being pumped, or how much YYY has risen, never buy -- you're playing in their playground. I'd view any such news as an opportunity to sell.
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some large buyings at bitstamp, but still pretty walled by that 1500 btc guy
as long as he remains sitting there, bitstamp won't follow gox
whales creating arb lol You know, we kind of decided that $900 is the cap for now. yeah, meanwhile everyone else has decided $800 is the floor. Trading is a losing game at this point unfortunately. |
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Quoting in context: If we go crazy from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash. That is the way turbulence works. This makes it relevant to try to estimate the top and the bottom.
My take:
- Top $2200, bottom $475. Before Christmas.
I was following your posts, there is always a crash in your post, each day you post the same prediction, Man, Bitcoin distorts your sense of time beyond remedy...  My first bearish post was this: I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen: - Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300. - It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs. - Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation Two bubbles in 2013 Who could have thought... Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community. Check the timestamp - it is 43 hours ago. Not even 2 days! I previously was a bear for less than 2 days when the April bubble initially popped (correctly), then a short time at $48 last March (failed), a little bearish before the final capitulation in June (correctly), and during all of the bear market in 2011 (correctly, with stellar results). Even if this one proves to be false, I still have 60% track record. (52% is enough to make money, needless to say that the majority is not even close). Even if I am wrong on this one, I will admit it latest next Monday. This leaves maximum about 10 days (out of 1000) that I have been a bitcoin bear with no reason. 1% of the time. Bear with it.. Henry Brade (Technomage) was right, I was wrong. We had a FB debate last week. I still think that $2200 by Christmas and crash afterwards is a possible and probable scenario. My analysis says that each crash low is 2x the pre-bubble ATH. So the essential content of that post still holds, and I am not about to deny that one. I give better odds that we see my sale price of $672 that that we don't see it. $2200 by Christmas! |
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One thing is for sure: These sideways markets really fuck with your mind.
When I see Y5300 in China and shit myself when it goes down to Y4900, I try to remember that it is the same as $53 to $49
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chinas trend is more downward then sideways. this is significant. we must be at a peak for the short term
are you talking about the day-by-day trend on the front page of btcchina.com? if so, what other hobbies do you have besides extrapolating? That chart is misleading. Their high was more like 7,000. |
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We could go up to somewhere above $1000, but I don't see this as a high potential upside right now. Bitcoin is a risky investment, and at this point in time I don't see the rewards being consummate with the risk. There's a real risk we're on the verge of mass hysteria and subsequent bag-holding. Another bubble could be a long time in the coming if so.
Fine to hold, but eventually holders will become impatient and want to increase their stash. They do this by dumping.
Might make sense to buy a little all the way down, but it's less risky to wait for the bottom to be in and buy on the next upswing -- it will probably be cheaper.
Christmas isn't traditionally a strong buying season, so the bottom may come early next year sometime.
Of course, I could be totally wrong. But to me this is as much about managing risk as going balls-in.
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They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"
That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k. Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue. Is this a serious comment? Where do you think new money learns about Bitcoin? This certainly isn't your earliest adopters buying BTC up to $900.  The vast majority of our friends (not techies or by any means "early adopters") were not interested in investing at $60, they were bored of us and our Bitcoin rambling. Now that we're at $800 and Bitcoin is in the media, they are desperate to buy. If they all do, we will shoot up to $2000 or $3000 -- I absolutely agree with the bulls. However, be careful what you wish for. We may well crash in a blaze of glory, and most will be burned. TBH I have much higher hopes for bitcoin. Something that appreciates more sensibly year-on-year is much more valuable to all of us. $3000+ by the end of next year, for example would be very exciting. $500 and restrictive BTC regulation in China -- not so much. Don't you see how you confuse your hopes with your predicts of future? Lets first decide where the price might go and then talk is't a good or bad thing for bitcoin. These two are clearly different things. Sure, $3000 then $50. Most will cash out at the latter. Or should we paint an alternative picture? Remember, the pictures are painted by the big holders, not (only) the new money coming in. |
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They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"
That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k. Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue. Is this a serious comment? Where do you think new money learns about Bitcoin? This certainly isn't your earliest adopters buying BTC up to $900. The vast majority of our friends (not techies or by any means "early adopters") were not interested in investing at $60, they were bored of us and our Bitcoin rambling. Now that we're at $800 and Bitcoin is in the media, they are desperate to buy. If they all do, we will shoot up to $2000 or $3000 -- I absolutely agree with the bulls. However, be careful what you wish for. We may well crash in a blaze of glory, and most will be burned. TBH I have much higher hopes for bitcoin. Something that appreciates more sensibly year-on-year is much more valuable to all of us. $3000+ by the end of next year, for example would be very exciting. $500 and restrictive BTC regulation in China -- not so much. |
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They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"
That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k. Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point. Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue. On one hand, I agree with you long-term. On the other, they are dead right. You only have to browse these forums on the vertical rise days and see the mania. The rise is driven 100% by speculation in China, and will fall hard if it continues -- only a matter of time. Damping the flames and triggering a recession now is absolutely the smart thing to do. I say this in the best interest of our future wealth -- a meltdown and ensuing over-reactionary regulation is not what we want. |
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Put it this way: We are considering adding a big red popup on our website stating that we do not advise people to buy BTC, for our own safety.
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I think the somewhat negative CCTV coverage is having an effect in China.
what happened? The Chinese dear leaders sold a bunch? No, if they wanted to sell they'd tell the masses to buy. If they are warning the masses away it's because the leaders want to buy before the prices goes higher. This is just wishful thinking. The only thing the leaders care about is stability and maintaining power. They absolutely do not want to see anything that could threaten this. |
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I think the somewhat negative CCTV coverage is having an effect in China.
I missed this. What did they say? They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away" Exactly that. |
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I think the somewhat negative CCTV coverage is having an effect in China.
I missed this. What did they say? There have been several reports on the radio and TV about the "bitcoin phenomenon", they have been quite widespread. The messaging is that bitcoin is extremely volatile and risky, and they do not advise investors to enter. Obviously they are most concerned about this escalating into a gold rush and causing destabilisation. Not terribly negative, but it should help to make the market more rational. |
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I think the somewhat negative CCTV coverage is having an effect in China.
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There is some extremely irrational investing advice in this forum, be careful.
Bitcoin has a very high potential upside. This galvanises people and turns us all into dreamers. We see people getting rich and want it too. A very high potential upside.
However it is also insanely risky. There is no law that states that Bitcoin will keep going up. In fact, it will go in the direction that will benefit the people who are already rich the most. If price outstrips adoption, price rises will not be exponential for a while.
Now, for most people, it is wise to take on high-risk investments. When you put the money in you accept it as lost, a sunk cost. If you are lucky, that pays off handsomely. It's a great idea. But the key is, you have to write off that initial investment.
For you, it is not -- the money was not yours, and you can't afford to lose it. You're in no position to write it off -- it was theft. You certainly can't take those decisions on behalf of others. In fact, your college is much more important, and many other opportunities will come in life.
You must also understand that easy riches is not the opportunity here. In life there are far more important opportunities that will make you into a person you can be proud of.
At this stage, if you are staying in due to potential greed, I'd advise you to liquidate some of your principal soon, and eventually keep only the BTC with which you could buy with profit. This will be very painful, especially when you see it go up, but it is wise to be careful when everyone else around you is greedy. Seeing all the responses here, I think you can judge for yourself, regardless of your age. These people who are so eager to see you buy now, will sell when the shit hits the fan. And they'll do it before you.
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