[If you already decided not believing me, then quit the post now.]

I’m tired of ignoring people questioning the 1300 BTC event on just-dice.com, and YES, even ignoring is tiresome. Here am I trying to explain that carefully and patiently, hoping I can do it once and for all. I know it’s hard, but I’m trying.

If you already decided not believing me, then quit the post now. It’s not worth reading. If you want to know what exactly happened, keep reading, and thank you for your patience.

That day, I withdrew all of my coins from just-dice.com under the account name of “celeste”, 1300BTC. Since it’s an amount larger than what contained in the hot wallet, I submit the withdrawal request on site, and contacted dooglus on IM. Under his guidance, I got my coins.

Shit happened. Dooglus forgot to remove 1300BTC from my balance, which I was completely unaware of.

Meanwhile, I was still a heavy investor on JD, the investment was in another account. Therefore, when I left café table for smoking and chatting with others, I still kept an eye on JD’s stat from time to time. When I noticed from my iPhone screen that my investment rose up more than 10 BTC, I thought, wow, who lost that big!

Turned out “It’s celeste!”

When I went back to my table, looked at my screen, the browser opened, and the balance is 0. If you were me, you’d think very hard to figure out what just happened. Balance changed from 0 to 0, but lost 1300BTC! I tried to contact dooglus on IM, but he’s sleeping. I left message for him, and waited.

Before that happened, I won more than 4000 bitcoins on JD, and had been discussing related issues among several friends. When I left the table, there’re three others sitting there, but none of them would admit he or she touch my computer.

“Who will left his laptop in a café, with half million dollar worth bitcoin, unprotected?” Good question. But the fact is there’s NO bitcoins in my laptop. I store part of my coins on blockchain.info, and the rest in paper wallets, no local storage at all. I cleared my account balance on JD already, (another investing account was never logged in from this laptop), were you me, could you have any incentive to protect nothing?

“You have google authentication enabled, others cannot login!” YES, but I did left that GoogleAuth barcode image on the desktop screen, which you could call it my fault.

“OK, you left your laptop in a café, and you went out to smoke, and you left the barcode image on desktop screen, but what’s the chance that a thief know just-dice.com, and know how to play?” GOOD QUESTION! Along with another good one: “… and he played just like you!”

I had been extensively discussing what I thought about JD, all of my friends knew my thoughts, my “strategy”, and some of them even tried out and won. The idea is simple enough: if you caught some patterns, you could win big and lose small. (Whether I’m in a gambler’s fallacy is beyond the topic in this post.) Any of them (even some of friends of friends) might well place bets just like me.

I respect dooglus and his project. After that event happened, I tried hard explaining details to dooglus, while realizing it’s almost impossible convincing him and others. But I did try. I’ve been a heavy investor on JD, and still am. I don’t want to do harm to JD.

With all due respect, I have to claim that the main fault came from dooglus. The starting point was he forgot clearing the already withdrawn balance. And I had a hard time too, I knew it’s one of my friends in the café that day, but had no proof to spot whodunit.

Dooglus made the decision, and rolled back database.

FACT:

• I got nothing in this event.
• No one lost any coin in this event.

No one got hurt, no coin damaged, only left me a bad reputation: a thief stole nothing. I once argued with Dooglus, “do you think if what I told you is true, I’m the only victim in that event?” People call me a thief, with nothing was stole; they call me a scam, with no proof at all.

What could I say? I did nothing wrong, I never and will not hurt anyone.

THANK you for reading.

https://letsdice.com/bet/detail/?bet_id=1199214

won more than 8 BTC, more than $1000 with 0.1BTC of 97% chance...  

https://letsdice.com/jackpot/history/

After launching letsdice.com, I started a new project, Carouse7.com, a slot machine farm.

Of course it is an investing opportunity.  

The project will be done within 60 days.

I've created a google group:

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!forum/carouse7

... which will be updated from next week.

Cheers.


update:

I thought you claimed letsdice wasn't you but a "friend".

YES. I got a great idea, and he programs better than I do, therefore, I chose to invest him.

And now, I have another great idea. and as promised in LD's IPO, the investors of LD will automatically have some shares in the new project.

And yes, martin will develop. However, I need to polish my idea first. Did I make myself clear?

 

The IPO will be ended 5 hours and 19 minutes later.

Any investment after deadline will be refund. If the investment didn't reach 10,000, then the rest would be sold later one market with the price higher than original value. 0.01BTC would go to the bankroll, any profit above that would be taken by the team as upkeep fee.

Does this sound reasonable?

[CHEERS]

UPDATE: 8136.0 invested!

CHEERS!

All free coins were sent!

=========================

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=288036.msg3142838#msg3142838

To check my luck, I placed a single bet on JD with 300BTC:

https://just-dice.com/roll/124870903

Since I won, I'll do another spread out:

1 BTC for 10 BTC investment on http://ipo.letsdice.com

from now on, 120 BTC available!

[On-chain and Off-chain mode]

On-chain and Off-chain mode

Introduced and popularized by just-dice.com, off-chain betting system is quite revolutionary, and letsdice.com follows and is trying to make it more user friendly (as a courtesy to JD).

While off-chain mode is fun, on-chain mode is somehow more secure and reliable, which is why letsdice.com keeps it as a special feature, and makes it completely compatible with satoshidice.com (as a tribute to SD).

LD (letsdice.com) features a JACKPOT, which is exciting:



The House Edge 1% or 1.98%?
The basic house edge of letsdice.com is 1.98% (Since we're trying to have both on-chain and off-chain mode, which is compatible to SD).

However, here's the main point: out of 1.98%, 0.48% goes to the JACKPOT (to players), and 0.5% goes to the players' referral rewards (to players). Therefore, in the end, the house only keeps 1%.

Build-in betting bot

While it's pretty tedious to placing bet manually, letsdice.com provides a building bot betting for you, it's fully customizable.



Invites your friends, profit with their probable winning


(Data extracted from the first day of public beta)

You can invites your friends to play, and the system will place them into your tree, no matter they are winning or losing, you get rewards calculated by the wagered (rather than "profit"). Chances are both your friend and you are happy!

...coming

When officially launched, there will be a simplified version of betting: true dice!

I’m not a native speaker, so please be patient with my English.

I noticed just-dice.com in the late June this year, and found it innovative compared with satoshidice.com, and was of course entirely not aware of satoshidice.com would buy back all of its shares on the market.

“Wow! It’s cool! I can be the bank (albeit “part of the bank”)!” I thought. And I invested several thousand coins on just-dice.com. The profit came nice… until one day…

I figure out there’s a hole in the game. I told what I thought to the site’s owner, Dooglus. Partly because of my poor English, I wasn’t capable of convincing him. (sorry, I don’t think I should write up what the hole really is here.) I was told that I was in a gambler’s fallacy. And for some days, I thought I was in a gambler’s fallacy too.

Two weeks later, I divested, and tried to prove I was right: what if I could win? I did it. But got addicted. When I was up, like 1000BTC, I thought, wow, now you must believe me! But whether Dooglus believe me or not, I just couldn’t stop, I played, or gambled, and continuously won. I was up like 4400BTC.

(An incident happened, which I have no interest to discuss here. They call me thief here: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-gambler-cheats-satoshidice-competitor-just-dice-out-of-1300-btc/ However, Dooglus knew how that exactly happened. He didn’t disallow my further investment and play.)

Meanwhile, I found “be part of the bank” is not as beautiful as I once thought.

• My investment had been continually diluted.
• I couldn’t enjoy shareholder’s benefit as I once invested on satoshidice.com (and in the August, we were told that satoshidice.com wanted to buy back all the shares in the market).
• In the long-run, people would place smaller and smaller bets. Gone are the days people placed 10k in a single bet. With my investment diluted, profit has to drop.

I sometimes switch from invest and divest. However, I was told I was in a gambler's fallacy again! I do respect Dooglus and his girl friend Deb, but I found I have no way to convince them I was NOT in a gambler's fallacy. At last, I even found it's almost impossible to convince them that I'm not a gambler at all!

I decided to develop my own dice game site, one that supports both on-chain (compatible to SD) and off-chain mode (as fast as JD), and most important of all, the site should go IPO, by which investors could enjoy an appreciation of share price.

I did develop a site, towtoad.com (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272092), but it turned out the layout was too ugly to stand. I just have no designing talent. When the towtoad.com was in public beta, a guy called Martin (clearly a pseudo name, since his last name is called “Gale”) approached me, and we discussed a lot. I found one of his ideas especially interesting, building a users’ tree, give them incentives to invite other players. “Wow, it’s genius, the site would go popular by itself!” So I decided to give up my own developing (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=280036), and started working on an IPO plan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=288036.0).

I won more than 4k from just-dice.com, so I’d happy to buy IPO shares with these coins, since the cost of these 4K BTC is zero for me. If I can own a lion’s share of the IPO shares (40% of IPO shares), I think it’s enough for me. I’ve made that money out of nothing.

oh, BTW, I won another 300BTC two days ago from JD, and spread part of them to the investors of letsdice.com. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=288036.msg3089090#msg3089090)

...(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272092), instead, I invested what I won from just-dice.com to a team,

and it turns out that they're building an amazing project.

The news would go public within this month.

Cheers!

I've made a new dice game website, now functioning, but still needs improvements.

PLEASE leave bug report or suggestions in this thread.

DEMO: https://demo.towtoad.com

ATTENTION: Before it is officially launched, DON'T deposit! the account will be filled with 100 balance after you lost all.

[1B5wz89xpRUGpnWDtqeVvCBMpkbTngo2mt]

No question, no answer, no bargain, the price is set: 111BTC (that's my lucky number)

http://nakowa.herokuapp.com

I won more than 4K BTC (equivalent to half million dollars) within 3 days, and quit. They say I’m purely luck. Possibly. Were they true, I must be the luckiest person in the world!

I wrote 18 rules for you. Test your own luck.

Bitcoin Address
1B5wz89xpRUGpnWDtqeVvCBMpkbTngo2mt

Public Key:
041ee085a2003c8d70460d621935b3de0dbe049948acfe90ad017a726bded8aac9f02e71e029d79 b0e4d2e4af64a375db127c2514124c0977f93f129cea8b14d41

Signature:
HHl7o6bHOwB0NdUGCAUmuQFcIEiePiVdqOX8s5/pOSu091+mefp8qInGy9iBlFNh7Vs3cHFoGU2XkNlDBbm51uM=

Message:
This is nakowa, or celeste.

[it allows users deposit as investors, share the profit of house edge with the site.]

It's amazing how satoshidice.com and just-dice.com are revolutionizing online gambling industry.

satoshidice.com just sold out for 12 Million Dollars, and just-dice.com is replacing its leading role.

satoshidice has several advantages that traditional online casinos don't have:

1. no registration
2. proven fairness
3. bitcoin itself as clips

with the same mechanism of proven fairness, just-dice.com goes further:

1. registration needed, at the same time keeps players anonymity.
2. instant feedback (no need to wait for transaction confirmed)
3. clips enabled, but tied to deposited bitcoin directly.

of course, the most revolutionary feature just-dice.com has is that it allows users deposit as investors, share the profit of house edge with the site.

However, one flaw of satoshidice style blew just-dice.com out (at least temporarily): Nakowa (nickname also used as cici, celeste, that is, me) won more than 3k bitcoins within 3 days. (here's the data of my bet history: https://just-dice.com/whale.zip)

What is the flaw? No max and min bet size set. In any tradition casino, max and min best sizes are all set, for example, min: 1, max: 5. In this way, the house controls the variance of outcome in a range. I never won from satoshidice.com that large amount of bitcoin, but did from just-dice.com, because it's just feedback instantly, and less tedious to place bets.

You have a large bankroll, and you bet alternatively with a very small bet size (0.01) as a test, and looking for pattern of (wlwlwlwl) (50% chance of win should be set), then bet large after a small bet loses. It's just looks like a gambler's fallacy, but it's a very simple, effective and safe way to create much larger variance. As long as your bankroll is large enough, and you "big" bet size is relatively small so that you feel comfortable, you can easily win a very large amount. If you could possibly stop after a large positive variance created, you win.

(Warning: DON'T think you can easily understand what stated above, and you can win on just-dice.com. To win, you'd better have the ability to control your emotions, and at the same time some positive luck.)

From the investors point of view, just-dice.com might well be profitable, but two factors need to be considered:
1. As the profit of the house goes up, more investors will be attracted, the percentage of an investor supplies to the house shrinks. Although the wagered may well go up a lot, the expected return of profit for an investor is less than fixed.
2. the investors can't enjoy a multiplied profit from the rise of share price as do satoshidice.com share holders (some of them enjoyed a 32-fold profit!).

Is there any way to create a better online casino than satoshidice.com and just-dice.com?

I myself is designing a slot machine game, would you give me some advices?

 

I'm nakowa (other names used: cici, celeste, and now towtoad).

I've been talked about a lot in the thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.0

Perhaps this the most shocking play before I stop betting big:



But how? I'll tell you all in the near future...