This is a very basic take from a volumetric analysis of Bitcoin. Data dates back from yesterday, but today's confirms this prediction.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. THIS IS JUST ME SHARING MY OWN. Hopefully to kill some of the unnecessary FUD out here.
I'll go briefly over the following points:
How we call this prediction for BTC.
Extrapolation to global market cap and other cryptos.
What it means for the crypto space.
Why this information should help you.
Note: I'm not a native english speaker so please forgive in advance any approximation in terminology. Hopefully you can correct my words rather than criticize (assume it's logically correct but using the wrong words, before bashing. I'll humbly accept any criticism too, the point is to discuss.)
1. Volumetric Analysis
Observe this chart, especially the horizontal volume bars on the right, relating to pricing:
https://i.imgur.com/ePOS4Ag.png(Source: Trader of Futures, Published on Jan 29, 2018 on YouTube, link at the bottom. You can watch the video if you want more details about volumetric charts).
Most people look at Technical Analysis from a price standpoint (candles, etc), but this is more backward-looking than forward. In essence it shows what has happened, not what is about to happen.
From a volume standpoint though, you can effectively characterize two very important aspects of a given value:
horizontally (time axis), you can retrace the actual weight, so to speak, of a move. How much global pressure there is/was in moving (the actual move is based on the average of ups and downs in a given time-frame, but how much volume overall tells you if the market is dull/weak or jacked/strong).
vertically (price axis), you can effectively characterize the actual levels at which traders are comfortable. When you see a low in volume on the Y-axis, it means that people are avoiding this price point, hence the valuation will usually either stop there ("support" or "resistance" level) or move past it. Which way depends on fundamentals (internal/external), which we'll discuss in 3. below.
You can see very clearly that BTC is dull right now over January (horizontally), there's not much incentive to upset the current (downward) trend. Down moves are strong, comparatively to consolidations (horizontal/up moves).
You can also identify the following support levels:
~$8.44k
~$5k
~$3k
Notice how the volume is much bigger below 8.4k than it is above: this is strong sign that many people are comfortable buying below 8.4k, indicating that there are little chances we go below (everything will be bought). This is currently the strongest next support level for BTC.
Notice also how it's much, much bigger below $5k: reasonably we can assume that BTC cannot move lower. If we break the 5k barrier, it will be bought almost instantly in the $4k-$5k range.
It's all intuition and sentiment, but given the current situation of cryptos (see 3. below), it is very likely that we will go down to 8.4k. It is also very likely that we'll pick back up after that.
Currently, there is resistance around $12k. To break above that level, we'd need volume (horizontally, a push up with enough weight). We'll see how it goes once this bear phase becomes bull again. It's hard to know when the shift back up will happen, but I'd expect in February, and breaking past $12k in March or so.
2. Extrapolation to global market cap and other cryptos (top 25)
Based on prices from yesterday, a dip to $8.44k for BTC would be about 0.85 its price when I took the values (9913 at the time).
It seems that the market is vastly correlated to BTC globally, so if we simply assume a linear move for the market globally, here's what we can expect:
https://i.imgur.com/nJb5Uiw.pngIn blue, a 0.85 dip. In pink, a 0.51 dip down to $5k-ish.
Again, it's very likely we will hit the blue values. It's possible, although rather unlikely we'll hit the pink ones.
For any value that's not in this chart, just multiply your coin's current value ×0.85 to get a feel of how much lower it will likely go.
For a more thorough price prediction, we should look at volumes (in pricing, Y-axis) of each cryptocurrency. I don't have time to do that, but you can and would therefore identify the proper support levels for each coin. I assumed here that it's overall "about good enough" to get a feel.
3. The crypto space right now
This is the most subjective part of this post so I'll just echo general sentiment.
Some people have a clear interest for cryptos to go down temporarily
Now that the crypto market has been somewhat legitimized, more and more people want in. They're not willing to buy at ATH obviously, so many are waiting. Others already in are taking profits as they see/saw this bear coming. It's all normal and a factual expectation of any market soaring high, then pausing a bit before going much higher if the underlying fundamentals are good.
The crypto scene right now is a bit of both, good and bad fundamentals (from the tech which is good but mostly beta/alpha, to the use-cases and general legal environment which is uncertain for now and therefore more on the bad sides of things, until such time we clear these unknowns).
Basically, whales are now waiting for the right time to enter. This is our $8.4k support level, as long as there's no major event to upset it (war, stock market crash, basically any macroeconomic bomb).
The somewhat official Bitcoin (BTC) is currently falling out of favor
Versus other cryptos, BTC dominance over the market went from 66% to 33% in a month. It's a huge loss of dominance that it's very unlikely to recover. Many people are already predicting that Ethereum (ETH) will soon take it over.
People also realized that BTC was no more viable as a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system" (words taken from Satoshi Nakamoto in the white paper) and that many other cryptos could be valid candidate. The space is in tremendous innovation, it's a really before-early-adopter phase right now.
Internally regarding Bitcoin itself, there is also much controversy due to forks over fundamental disagreements (namely Bitcoin Cash BHC) and a questionable new direction taken by self-proclaimed official caretakers of BTC (namely "Blockstream").
This is the reason for the feud between r/Bitcoin (BTC) and r/btc (BCH). I won't go into it here, but let's just say that overall it's a bit of shitshow that doesn't reflect good upon any bitcoin fork right now, and that appearances can be very, very deceiving, willingly or not from their respective promoters. Personally, I've been flabbergasted at what I've discovered, and I'm pretty sure it will be a big bomb if it ever reaches the attention of major media (it probably won't though).
Basically, BTC is falling out of favor fast from the general public, and this is causing the general crypto market as a whole to pause, reflect, and probably evolve, but that's never as smooth as it seems.
My personal prediction is that the top 3 coins a year from now may possibly not include any bitcoin(s).
Tether, Bitgrail, Bitconnect: time to do some cleaning
These are just examples of FUD-inducing events (some would say with good reasons!) that keep nagging this space with pains that keep it volatile and uncertain.
It's not clear at all when the crypto market will become suitable enough for the real mainstream to enter, not even questioning its use cases for now. But there are thresholds in security, trust, compliance that we have yet to pass with flying colors.
Again, this is causing more uncertainty. Since it's very hard to pinpoint the exact reasons for a surge up or a fall down in value of crypto-values, market actors are taking a stance back before making their bigger moves. Ergo, wait, see what's what.
South Korea, China and the USA are to make big legal moves
We don't know yet what will the legal situation be 6 months from now. What's sure is that official authorities have taken a big deep look at cryptos now, and Asia is by far the biggest investor especially in the mainstream. We're nowhere near that level in the west, although the importance of the USA in the global economy amplifies its decisions from a media standpoint.
Europe is also making moves, although as usually these days, it's a bit of an old dwarf versus Asia and America; its rather conservative population is unlikely to make massive moves (a notable exception is Switzerland for its relative independence from the EU).
This is again more general uncertainty, especially in Korea and China, that begs investors to wait a bit before they move. Hence, the bear is making its run. Big money, the kind that has a clear interest for a lower price, isn't doing anything to stop that trend (see first point).
Big, real, good projects take time
If you look at the development roadmaps and expectations from big projects team members (ETH, NEO...), you'll see that they expect to meet certain very important milestones (notably in scaling) by 2019 or even 2020. We're not there yet for general mainstream VISA-threatening adoption, guys. We still have A LOT of work to do.
Did I already mention that this market needs time?
4. What this information all means for you, how does this help?
Obviously the most important parts were 1. and 2. regarding your investments.
You now have a clearer picture of where we're going, most likely. You can anticipate how much your values will drop if they keep going down. So you can now arm yourself with patience, knowing that it is to be expected.
A bear market sometimes makes casualties, in the form of values (coins, companies, entire sectors...) that had no solid-enough grounds. There are bankruptcies, some teams/projects get bought. Others earn their legitimacy, too.
Don't panic. Just rationalize your investments:
Are the projects you support solid? It's not about being big (top 25) or small (in the high hundreds on CMC...), it's about being good, realistic, solving problems. It's about having people that can deliver on their objectives (track record, experience, behavior with other actors and on social media). I have more confidence in some rank 1,000-ish cryptos in my portfolio than some top 25.
How deep are their pockets? Dedicated their team? Can they withstand a month or even year-long bear market? Can they keep the payroll going until there's money coming in, i.e. a valid product? How timely is their product versus the chances of adoption? (this is why I insisted on making part 3. above).
You can't necessarily know the real answer to all these questions unless you're an insider, but some projects are better than others at making these unknowns known. Trust your intuition. If something feels off to you, it probably is to some degree. Question is, how comfortable are you supporting them with your own money?
Final words
Expect the dip to continue.
Until you see a market cap of ~420 billions, it's just the natural continuation of current volumes. It's OK, you already know (now...) what it means in terms of numbers in your portfolio. You wouldn't be here in the first place if you weren't ready for dips in-between highs.
If we break below that, sub-$400bn, then chances are we'll be heading for a 50%-ish dip, down to ~250bn. It's OK, too. Don't panic sell. Just be brutally honest with yourself before that, to let go of projects that you don't really believe in (moonshots ICOs and over-hyped coins), remain confident as ever in the ones you trust to see the light eventually.
This is a long term game, we're before early adoption in terms of tech.
There will be many such dips before we get there.
But we'll get there, eventually. That's what we all believe. And we have solid grounds for that belief, it's not faith, it's an educated guess based on how this world and business works.
If you want to double in (buy more), look at volumes to get a general bearing on your favorites.
Look at volumes on your coins. On the general market. Look how big people are moving, not just how high/low a given value is moving (it could be very low volumes and mean not much, if anything at all).
Don't be the sucker that only looks at candles. Spoiler: good traders don't really care for candles. Price analysis. TA. This is all just a reflection of the past. Volume is where it's at to anticipate moves, and you can only mix that with experience and intuition for the market. That's what investing on markets means.
You should never invest in something you don't understand, in a company or project you can't judge for yourself. For instance I understand tech, so I'm comfortable investing in Silicon Valley tech companies. But I know shit about retail even though I read Sam Walton's and Jeff Bezos biography. So I don't invest in those. If you invest in crypto, you should at least know a bit about crypto-tech itself, and you should know about the industry your particular projects are targeting.
None of this post is financial advice (I'm not qualified for that). But this is my only investing advice for you: know what these guys you're giving money to are doing. Be able to have an opinion about their goals, how it fits in the real world.
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