Bitcoin Price Update for September 7, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

The bulls have so far been able to successfully defend the 600 $ level, rather surprisingly, although price is now in an area in which it will be tough to continue higher without some sort of a recharge of the technicals.  We are starting to think that what has been a nice little 5% rally off of the 565 $ double bottom is just the beginning of a much larger move to the upside, perhaps to test the top of the current trading range between 450 - 700 $, however we also think that the indicators need a near term pullback in order to sync up with the higher timeframe charts.

Speaking of charts, let's take a look at the 6-hour for an overview of the shorter term setup.  We can see that SCMR is still painting bright green bullish candles and is building strong dynamic support between 565 - 570 $, also where volume profile PoC sits, as well as around the 590 $ level (which is new).  We also have upside stacking in the EMA's in addition to a break and hold of a flattening 200-period SMA which now sits around the top of the pivot area at 600 $.  Lastly on the bullish side of things, the A/D line is confirming the move to the upside and exchange volumes are finally picking up, both of which tell us to continue buying dips.

On the other hand, we are currently running up against heavy resistance which makes a pullback around current levels more probable.  Notice that price is well within the OTE short zone, well outside of the volume profile value area, and is getting awfully close to the triangle downtrend line which now resides around 620 $.  Additionally, Willy is now officially overbought, RSI is as well and is painting a bearish divergence, MACD is rolling over back to the zeroline, and PPO is heavily overbought too. 

Considering the near term technicals in the context of the longer term bull market we think we are getting closer to the upside resolution we have been calling for for months.  That said we also think that a pullback is due in order to recharge the technicals, washout late longs, and give investors another chance to pick up coins sub-600 $.  We would be small buyers in in the 590 - 600 $ range, and would come in with more size in the 575 - 580 $ area.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 6, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

And, we're back!  After some long overdue and much needed time off, we return with renewed invigoration and conviction regarding our recent forecasts.  Despite a continuation of the absence of fundamental catalysts, the technicals proved to be enough to spark a breakout from the previous 565 - 585 $ trading range as expected.  Now with price sitting just above 600 $ but just below the still intact symmetrical triangle, we stand at a critical juncture with regard to where we might be headed over the course of the next few weeks.  So, without further ado, let's take a look at the daily chart below for a classic medium term view of the current state of the market.

We can see that indeed price is now near the upper bound of the triangle consolidation that the market has been stuck in for almost three months, which means that multiple resistance areas exist right overhead in the form of the pivot area and the downtrend line.  Also notice that SCMR is still painting some dynamic resistance around the key 630 $ level, although we finally have new support at 565 $ along with green candles and a myriad of reversal signals.  Additionally, we have some decent market structure to work with following a small Adam & Eve double bottom in the 560's $, and we continue to watch a still intact Elliot Wave ABC correction.

Moving on to momentum and volume we can see that Willy and RSI are now firmly in uptrends despite rapidly approaching overbought territory, MACD is picking up some steam above the zeroline, and PPO is now neutral but trending higher.  Not only that, but the near term EMA's have crossed over bullishly and the 200-day SMA has held as support while continuing to press higher, signaling we are still in a bull market.  Finally, volume is not as bullish as the other indications considering that there remain multiple large volume profile notches both above and below that market that could use some work, not to mention exchange volumes remain anemic, however the A/D line continues to indicate that buyers are still outpacing sellers even at these levels.

From a longer term perspective bitcoin remains in a wide consolidation range between 450 - 700 $ as players continue to position for the next substantial move.  While our call for a rally up to resistance going into this week was the right one, we also realize that there could be some minor downside from here if we stick to our roadmap from last week.  One final downside washout back to support at the bottom of the triangle between 550 - 570 $ would allow us to jump back in once again for what we think will be at least a test of 630 $.  This would also recharge the momentum oscillators which would greatly increase the chances of moving above 630 $ once we are able to get there.  At this point, there just might not be enough left in the bulls' tanks to push through such heavy resistance on the first try.

To sum up, we are staying generally bullish but near term cautious.  Dips can continue to be bought, and now that we have confirmation of upside bias we can put a little more juice in these trades than we have been for the past several weeks.  Things should be getting exciting again soon in Bitcoinland (at long last!).


GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 2, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As we have been forecasting all week, bitcoin has indeed remained trapped in the 565 - 585 $ consolidation zone (and within that primarily in the 570 - 580 $ area).  Yesterday we saw a small test of the lower end of that range, and today we are making moves back into the mid to high 570's $.  While we cannot rule out a spike in volatility over the next few days, we think most of the action will materialize later in the long weekend (Sunday going into Monday).  Despite the fact that the technicals still are not all that clear on directionality seeing as though this flat market has transitioned into indecision, we still see no reason to change our generally bullish bias going into Autumn.

Speaking of flat technicals, let's take a look at the 6-hour chart once again for an idea of where we may be heading over the next 24 - 48 hours.  We can see that price remains in the symmetrical triangle however it is slowly creeping down to the lower trendline over time.  Also, SCMR is painting yet another upside reversal candle, but is once again price having difficulty following through on any pick up in volumes.  Also note that price is still pinned to the large volume profile PoC while the A/D line continues higher, and it appears as though the bulls are trying to put in a rather elongated double bottom around 565 $.

Moving on to momentum we can see that Willy and RSI are gaining some strength following bullish divergences over the past week, MACD is still flatlined around the zeroline, and PPO remains neutral. Finally, the 9/18 EMA cross is almost complete flat as well, and the 200-period SMA continues to press lower, now sitting in the heart of the near term OTE short zone.  Considering what is still a rather convoluted technical picture over the short to medium term, we remain hesitant to move back into the market in size on the long side prior to a clearer signal on a break of the current trading ranges.  Until then, we will remain cautiously long in our VST ProTrade and comfortably long in our MT ProTrade.

Optimally we would like to see the market move up to our VST exit target over the next few days prior to a washout back to the downside which would allow us to add to our longer term trade.  Despite this apparent bullishness on our part, we realize that the current extended consolidation off of the 780 $ highs could have alot more room to run until the market starts to trend again.  Ultimately we are still in a large 465 - 700 $ range, which allows for trade flexibility although keep in mind that trading large ranges is often harder than it looks or seems. 

Finally, we will be out of pocket for the next few days due to the Labor Day holiday in the US, however we will issue email and Slack alerts if warranted by extreme price action. Also, AKWAnalytics should be available on Slack during the morning hours over the weekend, but if not please leave a DM and he will get back to you asap.  Thanks and have a great one!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 1, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As we start to wrap up one of the slowest weeks in bitcoin's history in terms of price action, we continue to sit patiently in our long positions.  Despite the possibility of a breakdown out of the medium term triangle consolidation, we still like the risk/reward profiles present in our VST and MT ProTrades. Having said that, we are currently not expecting any substantial increase in volatility over the next few days but we do think it will pick back up as we head into the latter half of the long holiday weekend.  As has been the case for months, our bias remains to the upside, however we fully acknowledge the possibility that a dump down to the 500 $ area is possible prior to another test of the upside, which is why we are keeping tight stops on the shorter term trades.

Moving on to the technical details, we can see on the daily chart below that indeed the symmetrical triangle remains in full effect and price remains right in the middle of the formation.  Also notice that price continues to hug the volume profile PoC despite large notches on either side it, and the SCMR upside reversal candle painted a few days ago remains intact as well (although it has been flirting with a cancellation so we are not out of the woods just yet).  Speaking of SCMR, note that neutral bars are still coming in and we still do not have even minor dynamic support other than at the 525 $ level going back to June, so conviction is low on both sides of the ball.

As far as momentum and volume, it should come as no surprise that Willy and RSI are still chopping around in no man's land while MACD and the EMA's continue to flatten out.  Additionally, PPO is still showing weak buy signals while the A/D line continues to move slowly to the upside on low exchange volumes, telling us that there is at least some weak demand still at these levels.  Finally, the 200-day SMA remains in an uptrend thus confirming the longer term bull market and its lengthy consolidation, however multiple support and resistance areas both below and above the market will likely keep price range bound for the time being.

Generally speaking we continue to think there is a chance of a breakout from the triangle over the weekend and going into early next week, although we would be surprised to see things go beyond the OTE zones noted on the chart even if that materializes.  Until then, however, the 540 $ support level and the 630 $ resistance level remain the ones to watch for potential breakouts.  Until one of those key areas is tested the market will remain stagnant and, frankly, downright boring.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for August 31, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Although things were looking pretty good yesterday for near term bulls, the market once again turned south following a tag of the 580 $ resistance area.  Now price is sitting back down in the 570 - 575 $ area where it has felt so comfortable for over a month.  We are not expecting any action in the market until later in the weekend going into early next week, therefore we remain neutral on a market that is stagnant and indecisive at current levels.  We will continue to remain patient overall given a still mixed bag of technicals and some waiting time until the next fundamental catalyst (Bitcoin Core 0.13.1), however we are willing to hold our small VST ProTrade long for the time being.

Today we revisit the 6-hour chart for a look at the short to medium term prospects.  We can see that price remains flat within the pivot area, and also continue to hug volume profile PoC, while market structure vacillates between bullish and bearish.  Also note that trading volumes remain anemic and volume profile looks relatively thin on either side of the current trading range, however the A/D line is still slowly pressing to the upside so it appears as though there are still buyers around current levels. Additionally, SCMR continue to paint mixed signals as we had a potential upside reversal that was cancelled a few bars later, but now we have a re-confirmation of the reversal although there has been no follow-through in price action yet.

Moving on to momentum we can see that the near term EMA's are almost completely flat, the 200-period SMA is still bearish, and PPO is close to signaling slightly overbought conditions despite practically no movement to the upside so far this week.  Finally, we can see that Willy and RSI both failed to push sustainably above their respective centerlines, while MACD continues to dance around it's zeroline as well.  None of these indications are all that encouraging, at least not from a near term perspective, so for now we are expecting more of the same until we get closer to the holiday weekend. 

Considering how tight the market is coiling right now, and has been for some time, we think that when a break of the symmetrical triangle/consolidation range materializes it will send some shockwaves of volatility through the market.  The key levels to watch are now 540 $ on the downside and 630 $ on the upside, so keep an eye out for a break of one of these levels over the next few weeks.  A break lower would likely take us down into the MT ProTrade add zone just below 500 $, while a breakout higher would likely send prices up to more significant resistance in the form of the OTE short zone around 700 $.  For the time being, however, we continue to sit on the sidelines in order to wait for more favorable setups.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-31-2016

SPECIAL 30% DISCOUNT AVAILABLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, USE 'NEWSBBA' AT CHECKOUT (https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/subscriptions.html). CONTACT IF INTERESTED IN PAYING WITH BTC.
To receive graphs, protrades, daily updates, acess to $BTC, $XMR, $LTC, $ETH, $ETC and access to our slack channel of traders you'll need to upgrade to a paid membership. We will continue to post our free updates in here. Cheers!

Market Commentary (BTC):  

Despite still being trapped within the 565 - 585 $ area, price is slowly moving up to the top of that range as expected.  While follow through on this move has been anemic, we think price action will pick up if the 580 $ resistance level can be broken on decent volume.  We say this due to some emerging technical signals on the medium term chart, as well as the fact that Bitcoin Core 0.13.1 (which will contain SegWit code) is now over 30% complete.  Even though we are still in the final days of the summer doldrums, we think this combination of positive technicals and fundamentals could give the market some juice to the upside.  To find out where we might be heading, lets turn to the 12-hour chart below.

We can see that price remains firmly within the symmetrical triangle, as well as the pivot area, and is sitting right on top of the volume profile PoC.  Also note that SCMR painted a confirmed upside reversal yesterday, the first since June, and despite no new dynamic support yet we can see dynamic resistance slowly weakening over time.  Additionally, market structure is starting to come in slightly more bullish and the Vix is indicating that an increase in volatility is likely nearing, therefore we think a move up into the volume profile notch around 600 $ is a possibility over the next week or so.

Having said that, we still have mixed signals coming from momentum and volume which is why we are not ready to call a breakout rally imminent just yet.  Notice that Willy is heading back to the downside despite the possible reversal in price, RSI has not been able to break above the 50-line, and the 9/18 EMA cross remains flat for the time being.  We can also see that MACD has finally jumped over the zeroline although without much fanfare, while the A/D line continues to slowly press to the upside. While we think a move higher is more likely than not, we don't think it will be very large in magnitude considering the mixed oscillators as well as the heavy resistance overhead in the form of SCMR, OTE, volume profile, and the 200-period SMA.  Getting through 630 $ will still be a very tall task for the bulls, but 600 $ is a more realistic possibility.

Overall we continue to slowly move into the bullish camp given we now have a short term risk/reward profile that we can live with, which is why the new VST ProTrade was issued.  Despite this tempered positivity, unless price can breakout of the larger triangle that we remain in between 540 - 630 $ then the market will stay in this sideways consolidation, albeit with a bit more volatility, going into September.  We are still hopeful that we get another shot to add to longs down in our buy zones, but for now this small long scalp will have to do.

Thanks! AKWAnalytics and S3052

Bitcoin Price Update for August 29, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Once again no surprises over the weekend as price remains locked in a tight consolidation, although we did get a small break from the 570 - 580 $ range when price dipped into the mid-560's over the weekend.  With a new range in effect from 565 - 585 $ and considering we are going into a long holiday weekend, we think the price action will remain subdued over the course of this week.  Having said that, there are some early technical indications emerging on the shorter term charts that are signaling a potential move to the upside to test resistance at the top of the range.

With that in mind, lets move to the 6-hour chart below for a look at the short to medium term outlook. First of all, notice that price is still within the symmetrical triangle, as well as the pivot area, as it has been for some time, and it now appears to be trapped between volume profile PoC and the near term EMA's.  Speaking of volume profile, it continues to look relatively healthy compared to the longer term charts so perhaps a move up into OTE is not out of the question over the next few weeks, but for now this looks unlikely over the very short term. 

Moving on, we can see that SCMR is painting neutral candles following a "confirmed reversal up" candle late in the weekend which has not yet been voided despite little progress to the upside.  Additionally, Willy has reversed back to the upside, RSI is back in neutral territory following a bullish divergence, and MACD and PPO are both showing signs of at least a local bottom around 565 $.  These are encouraging signs that could indicate a small upside bias this week, although we are still not buyers of coins at these levels.

Conversely, we have minor dynamic support sitting at the 554 $ low and resistance around 585 $, however major support is nowhere to be found while major resistance still hangs overhead at 600 $ and 630 $.  Also note that the 200-period SMA remains in a downtrend signaling the short term correction is still not over, while the EMA's flatline around current prices telling us there remains indecision in this market. 

While we are not expecting a significant move beyond the 565 - 585 $ range in either direction over the course of this week, we do think a move up to test that 580 - 585 $ area is a distinct possibility.  Perhaps when we get back to business next Tuesday following the Labor Day holiday in the US we can breakout of this range to test our 545 - 555 $ buy zone or the 600 - 630 $ resistance area.  Until then, we remains patient and neutral.

Remember, in a trendless and contracting market, which we are currently in, buying the dips and selling the rips remains the most relevant strategy for short term and more risk-seeking players.  That said, we remain on the sidelines at current levels considering we want to add to long positions at more favorable risk/reward levels.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-29-2016

Bitcoin Price Update for August 26, 2016  

Market Commentary (BTC):  

As we head into the final weekend of August, the market remains stagnant around the 575 $ level. Despite a few pops up to resistance at 580 $ and a few dumps down to test the bottom of the range at 570 $, for the most part the market has been steadily trading sideways for pretty much the entire week. We think this period of extreme inactivity will give way to more volume and volatility within the next several weeks, which is likely not what traders want to hear, but the market just does not seem ready to resolve out of this area yet.  Until it is ready, price will remain trapped in a series of ranges, the most relevant of which now sits between 570 - 580 $.  

Before signing off for the weekend we want to take a look at the daily chart for a a view of what the market has done throughout the summer.  First of all, we can see that price is still right in the middle of a symmetrical triangle consolidation off of the June highs, and is also stuck between a large demand area and a pivot zone from the June lows.  Also note that SCMR is still painting neutral candles and dynamic resistance continues to build at 630 $, although the flattening EMA's and still bullish 200 SMA are signaling that this indeed remains an extended sideways consolidation within a bull market.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy and RSI are still chopping around in no man's land while MACD tries to break the zeroline following a substantial bullish divergence on the recent low's below 500 $.  Additionally, PPO is still showing bottoming conditions, although not as strong as a week or two ago, and the A/D line remains in an uptrend despite a small roll over the past few days.  Finally, exchange volumes continue to wane and multiple volume profile notches still exist both above and below the market.  This is telling us that we may have more time within this consolidation while price discovery continues, with the short to medium term volume bias being to the downside considering the large gap between 480 - 550 $.

Generally speaking we remains neutral and patient while price flatlines around 575 $.  As was the case last weekend, we are not expecting a significant move above or below the current trading range, although spikes are possible, however we would continue to play the near term by buying the dips and selling the rips while we wait for the market to come back down into our buy zones.

Have a great weekend!  GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3I91jxLi-28

Bitcoin Price Update for August 24, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As the tight, sideways chop persists through the majority of this week due to mixed technicals and relatively boring fundamentals, we want to take a closer look at what the market is doing within the multiple consolidation patterns price is stuck in on multiple timeframes.  It has been tough to get a good gauge on the market following the Finex bottom and subsequent bounce, and it still is, however more encouraging signs continue to emerge as we press on in this still contracting 570 - 590 $ range.  With that in mind let's move on to the updated 4-hour chart below for a look at the short term technicals.

We can see that price was able to breakout of this specific symmetrical triangle, although price remained heavy and the apex was quickly tested.  Now the market is riding the triangle uptrend line despite neutral SCMR candles and new dynamic support around 570 $, however there remains significant resistance overhead in the form of the medium term OTE short zone and the minor supply area which has already rejected price at 585 $ a couple of times.  Throw in the fact that the 9/18 EMA cross has flatlined and the 200-period SMA remains bearish and falling around 600 $, and we still have a thoroughly confusing market on our hands for the time being.

Having said that, notice that Willy and RSI are recharging nicely down at the centerline despite a stagnation in price, as is the Stochastic, however the CM PPO is still showing slightly more overbought conditions than we would prefer.  Finally, volume profile looks healthy around current levels although work still needs to be done below the market while trendline and OTE support still sits between 500 - 530 $, but we still have a rising A/D line and low trading volumes so perhaps price remains elevated for now. 

Generally speaking we are still in the camp that a bullish resolution is coming in the next month or two. This is particularly true considering that it seems we are now in the middle of the traditional pre-bitcoin rally altcoin pump, which still gives the charts some time to align themselves prior to that upside move. Despite some early positive signals on the shorter term 4-hour timeframe, the longer term charts are still not there yet.  While we think a move up to test 600 $ and maybe even 630 $ over the next 5 days remains a possibility, we are not betting on it just yet as you can see by the ProTrade levels below.


GLGT!

To receive graphs, protrades, daily updates, and access to our slack channel of traders you'll need to upgrade to a paid membership. We will continue to send our free updates on here.

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Despite the fact that the bitcoin price was able to push up to the 590 $ near term OTE short zone resistance yesterday, a failure to break above there caused another overnight selloff back down to 580 $.  Now we are once again treading water around 585 $, as we did for most of the day yesterday, although we will say that a series of higher lows over the past five days still has us leaning slightly bullish for the time being.  While we are skeptical of a breakout above 600 $ in the next few days, we do think the bulls make a run for it by the end of the weekend.  Another failure there would likely mean we revisit the lower half of the 550 - 600 $ trading range, but as per the ProTrades below we would be buyers of that dip.

Today we want to return to our favorite medium term chart to see if we can glean any clues as to timing and directionality of the next move.  We can see below the SCMR is trying to paint green candles but there are some neutral ones scattered in there as well.  Also note that dynamic support is still building around 570 $, which is also where a volume profile mini-PoC sits, and is right in the middle of the current pivot zone.  Additionally, the 9/18 EMA cross is starting to turn back to the upside, the 200-period SMA is still rising but will be resistance on the way back up, and there is a large volume profile notch that needs some filling in just above 600 $. 

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy is above the centerline but is rapidly approaching overbought territory while price remains relatively flat, RSI is above the centerline as well but has stalled out, and MACD remains pinned near zero as the MA's continue to flatten.  Additionally, despite the fact that the A/D line is still generally trending slowly higher, we have seen a slight dip over the past day or two which indicates there could be some distribution happening in the upper half of the aforementioned 550 - 600 $ trading range.  Finally, exchange volumes remain unimpressive signaling a lack of conviction from either the bulls or the bears for the time being. 

Given a mixed technical picture and poor seasonality we think the market will continue to chop around between 570 - 590 $ through the middle part of this week.  That said, we think there is a decent shot at an upside test of 600 $ prior to a move back down to SCMR support at 570 $ early next week.  While the dog days of summer press on, we remain neutral and patient at current levels considering price action is anemic and risk/reward profiles are unattractive on both sides of the market.

GLGT!
Discount:
30% for the next 7 days. Join our active slack channel (expert pro and above), get access to charts, and 24/7 contact with our traders. Use discount code 'NEWSBBA' Subscribe here: https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/subscriptions.html

Long Term Outlook (UP AS LONG AS 315 $ HOLDS):

Following the Bitfinex fiasco a few weeks ago, the market has been in a period of stagnation in terms of both
fundamentals and technicals. More broadly speaking, the financial markets are still in the “dog days of summer”
(aka, summer doldrums) which are characterized by low volume and low volatility, and which are caused
primarily by wealthy vacationers stepping away from the markets. More specific to bitcoin, the halving has
been properly digested so far, Seg Wit and other code improvements are slowly rolling out, and price is around
where the market seems to think fair value currently is. While we are expecting a least a few more weeks of
sideways consolidation, we remain of the mind that an upside resoltion is coming as we move into Autumn.

When we began working up the charts earlier we were surprised by how resilient and supportive
the weekly chart below looks. SCMR is still not painting any red candles and dynamic support
continues to build just below 400 $. It also appears as though the market is forming a bullish pennant
pattern with the recent low coming in on a bullish volume divergence. Speaking of that 465 $
low, notice that it was right in the OTE long zone, right at the top of the demand area, right on the
uptrend line, and right on historical resistance turned support. This 450 - 465 $ area is strong.

Conversely, Willy remains relatively overbought, RSI looks heavy, MACD has dropped below the zeroline, and the
9/18 EMA cross contiues to flatten. Additionally, despite pressing to the upside in a firm uptrend, the 200-week SMA
is still all the way down near dynamic support at 360 $, which is also the bottom of the downtrend pennant channel.

While we cannot technically rule out a test of the high 300’s $ at some point, we think it remains very unlikey and we
would be strong buyers of that move. The more likely path over the next few months in our opinion is a continuation
of the sideways consolidation between 450 - 700 $ prior to an upside resolution going into the end of the year.

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for August 19, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Incredibly, the bitcoin price simply refuses to move from this 570 - 580 $ range as both bulls and bears get immediately spurned on any minute move in either direction.  Going into what may be the slowest trading weekend of the year seasonally speaking, we are watchful but not optimistic about a breakout of this range.  The lack of fundamental catalysts combined with still mixed technicals means that we must remain neutral and patient going into next week, although we do think a move out of the larger 555 - 600 $ trading area is coming in the next week or two.  Until then, though, we remain on the sidelines.

Today we take another look at the 6-hour chart for the short term overview since we will be covering the medium and long term outlooks in the full report on Monday.  We can see that price has truly flatlined around 570 $ which is where volume profile PoC is sitting, as are both the 9 and the 18 EMA's.  Also note that SCMR is painting all neutral candles now as indecision remains prevalent, and we are lacking in dynamic support and resistance anywhere near current levels.  As long as price remains within the light blue pivot area, risk/reward will continue to be unfavorable for all but the most nimble range traders who can buy the dips and sell the rips within this near term 565 - 575 $ zone.

Getting to momentum and volume, notice that Willy is moving swiftly to the upside despite little progress in terms of price, RSI continues to struggle at the centerline, and MACD remains pinned near zero. Additionally, volume profile remains very porous both above and below current prices and trading volumes continue to be anemic, although a still rising A/D line indicates that perhaps there are more buyers at these levels than meets the eye. 

Finally, OTE long zone support down just below the medium term uptrend line around 500 $ continues to be our preferred reload zone, however we would still be interested in taking a shot on the long side in the 540 - 550 $ area as per our VST ProTrade.  Conversely, significant SCMR dynamic resistance still hangs overhead around 630 $ so that is where we would be taking profits on any long positions.

While it may seem as though this consolidation will never end, we know from experience that just when it looks the most hopeless is when the market starts to move.  We still prefer the idea that we head slightly lower out of this range first before eventually resolving to the upside, but at this point it is pretty much a waiting game until we get technical confirmation one way or the other.

Have a great weekend!  GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-19-2016

**If you're interested in getting more than these free reports, msg me, or contact BBA. We have a slack group, daily reports, charts, and much more.**

Market Commentary (BTC):

Not much to say this morning given the markets are fully in the grip of the summer doldrums. This period of extreme stagnation prompted us to go back and take a look at what happened last summer around this time, and indeed the same conditions were present then prior to an upside resolution later in the Fall. While we cannot guarantee that this same outcome will materialize again this year, we think there is a fairly good chance that something similar does occur (at least in terms of a breakout in one direction or the other). Seeing as though we are still in a slow period as far as fundamentals go, we remain primarily focused on the technicals for the time being.

We return to the 12-hour chart for another look at the medium term setup. There is no doubt the the market is currently locked in a period of indecision and uncertainty seeing as though price has been trading within the light blue pivot zone all week (only a ~25 $ range), and remains firmly in the middle of the symmetrical triangle. Also notice that SCMR has been vacillating between red and blue candles, those being bearish and upside reversal signals respectively, while dynamic resistance overhead at 600 and 630 $ both slowly loosen their grip on the market.
Moving on, we still have a minor OTE short zone sitting between 580 - 600 $ while the OTE long zone remains down around the 500 $ level, which is also still the top of the major demand area. Not only that, but price remains stuck trading around this volume profile mini-PoC that lies between two large notches, although the A/D line continues to press slowly to the upside indicating buyers remain at these levels. As far as momentum goes we are getting mixed signals as well considering Willy has pulled back nicely, RSI looks like it has bottomed near term, and MACD is poking its head above the zeroline.

Despite the possibility of a quick washout back down into support in the low to mid-500's $, where we still want to be buyers, we think the market may turn more bullish than many are expecting over the next week or two. The small but effective Adam & Eve double bottom that appears to be materializing around the 560 $ level is making us slightly more bullish than we were earlier in the week even in the face of a very murky short term technical outlook. We would not be surprised to see the action pick up slightly over the weekend as we slowly move out of the dog days of summer, and we now have a slightly more bullish bias so take that for what its worth.

GLGT

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Market Commentary (BTC): 

The waiting game persists as the bitcoin markets continue to compress during this slow summer trading season.  Despite the possibility that we could remain locked in the 550 - 600 $ range for a few more weeks, this newer 570 - 580 $ range will likely break sometime this week or this weekend.  While the technicals are still not all that helpful in terms of directionality, from a market makers perspective the struggle to make profit in these tight conditions is very real.  In light of this near term uncertainty we want to stay neutral and patient at current levels, although we are still in a "buy the dips, sell the rips" mentality until further notice.

Today we zoom in on the 4-hour chart below given it has been awhile since we have taken a serious look at shorter term technicals.  The first thing to notice is that we have another working symmetrical triangle on this timeframe in addition to the longer term charts, which continues to squeeze price into the current 570 - 580 $ range (and is also where volume profile PoC is and hence where near term fair value is). 

Also note that there is a new minor pivot area from 555 - 570 $ which should provide some support on dips, and SCMR is once again painting neutral/mixed candles following a few days of bullish price action earlier this week.  Finally, the OTE short zone continues to sit right overhead between 585 - 620 $ while the major OTE long zone still lies between 500 - 520 $, not to mention that volume profile leaves much to be desired, all of which is telling us that even a break of the current trading range might not catalyze a very large move this time around.

Momentum and volume are also telling a confusing story considering Willy is heading higher but is hitting centerline resistance, RSI is heading down to test the 40 level, and MACD continues to stagnate around zero.  Additionally, the 9/18 EMA cross has flatlined at current prices and the 200-period SMA remains bearish, although conversely the A/D line is still healthy and trading volumes are slightly more bullish now than they were earlier in the week.  For the time being price will stay within the 570 - 580 $ range until we get a move above or below there.  Our thinking for the time being is that we could move down to test the lower triangle trendline around 560 $ before finding support once again and then attempting to move above 580 $.

All said, we remain buyers down in the 540 - 550 $ area for a shorter term scalp trade, as well as down in the 500 $ region for a longer term play.  Having said that, until there is some conviction on one side or the other, the bitcoin markets will remain stagnant in a large, extended consolidation between 450 - 700 $.  We still think an upside resolution materializes in the latter part of this year, however at this point we are relegated to sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to come to us.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-17-2016

Bitcoin Price Update for August 16, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As the stagnation in the bitcoin markets intensifies once again, patience and discipline become a trader's most valuable tools.  The lack of fundamental catalysts over the near term combined with a still murky technical picture on the medium to long term charts means it's every man for himself in these conditions.  With that in mind, market marker's can create their own small scalp trades within a tight trading range like we are in now due to the size of their capital pool, however us normal traders need to be much more selective in conditions such as these so as to preserve capital to deploy in a more favorable environment.

Getting to the aforementioned technicals, today we are looking at the 12-hour chart once again for a closer inspection of the medium term outlook.  To begin, we can see that price remains well within both the larger symmetrical triangle formation, as well as in the light blue pivot area, and continues to fill in volume profile between 550 - 600 $.  Additionally, market structure looks like it is trying to shift to a more bullish pattern while SCMR continues to paint red candles, although it looks like we should see a potential bullish reversal over the next day or two as long as the 554.90 $ low on Stamp can hold. Finally, dynamic resistance is now sitting overhead at 575 $ while the near term OTE short zone sits in the key 580 - 600 $ area, making it difficult for bulls to push through those levels without some help.

Moving on, notice that despite persistent weakness over the past few days, the momentum oscillators are still not recharged enough for our liking.  Willy is close to overbought but still has some room to run to the downside, RSI is showing a bullish divergence although it too has room to fall, and MACD has remained resilient but is now close to breaking back below the zeroline.  Not only that, but the A/D line has flatlined, trading volumes are still favoring sellers, and there remains a porous volume profile setup down below 560 $.

Generally speaking, we are still in the neutral camp with an inclination to buy dips into our supportive buys zones.  Despite the possibility that we could see a small countertrend move back up into the 580 - 600 $ resistance region, we would not chase that rally considering we still think we could get a shot in the 540 - 550 $ PT area in the not too distant future.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Report for August 15, 2016
 
Market Commentary (BTC): 

Indeed we got a rather uneventful weekend, as expected, despite a pullback to the bottom of the still intact trading range between 550 - 600 $.  Following a local low of 556.24 $ yesterday, price has since been slowly recovering back into the 570 $ area.  Seeing as though we are currently in the heart of the summer trading doldrums we are not expecting much movement this week either, although if the 550 - 600 $ range does get broken somehow then stronger support still lies at 520 $ and resistance at 630 $. 

With that in mind, let's take a look at the 6-hour chart for a snapshot of the short to medium term technicals.  First of all, notice that the ascending wedge we pointed out last week was indeed a bearish signal as price is now well below those levels.  Also notice that we are still in the light blue pivot zone despite a quick washout below it on Sunday, and we remain in a volume profile mini-PoC region with a notch around 580 $ that needs to be filled in prior to a move out of this range. 

Additionally, SCMR is still painting red candles with new minor dynamic resistance building around 575 $, and market structure remains bearish despite the semblance of stability coming back into the market now.  Finally, the 9/18 EMA cross remains ...

Chart here: https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-15-2016

Bitcoin Price Update for August 11, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Bitfinex began trading again yesterday for the first time in over a week, and surprisingly the market has taken it in stride.  Despite a quick selloff down to the mid-580's $ following some restart issues at Finex, the market just as quickly rebounded back up near the 600 $ level.  Now we are once again pinned to the upper end of the still intact 580 - 600 $ trading range, although price did peak up through there on Bitstamp yesterday to reach a local high of 603 $.  While we still think that a test of higher resistance in the 620 - 630 $ region is a possibility over the course of the next week or two, there are some technical features on the shorter term charts that are giving us pause for the time being.

Moving on to said technicals, we can see on the 6-hour chart below that despite price being in a minor uptrend, it is also forming a bearish ascending wedge pattern.  These formation have been fairly accurate in the bitcoin markets over the past 6-12 months so we are giving it due credence. Additionally, we are at the top of the light blue pivot zone, Willy is overbought, RSI and MACD are trying to paint small bearish divergences, and buyside volumes have been unimpressive. 

Meanwhile, SCMR is now painting some green candles despite heavy dynamic resistance overhead at 630 $, market structure is starting to turn more positive, and the A/D line is still pressing to the upside. Not only that, but the 9/18 EMA cross is now turning bullish and there is a large volume profile notch above 600 $ that will need to be filled-in in the not too distant future.  Speaking of volume profile, notice that PoC is all the way up above the 200-period SMA so even if we can push through 630 $, there is more resistance waiting in the wings between 640 - 650 $. 

Considering that the momentum oscillators are relatively bearish while we are nearing the apex of this ascending wedge, we think another move to the downside in the next few days is a decent possibility. The OTE long zone down around the trendline and at the top of the demand area would be our preferred spot to add to the MT ProTrade, however we are not expecting a move back down to those levels just yet.  Instead, at least over the near term, we would still be buyers of a selloff in to the 530 - 550 $ range.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for August 10, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

The market continues to settle into this 580 - 600 $ range as positioning for the next breakout move intensifies.  Given that Bitfinex will reopen operations within the next 48 hours, we are expecting volatility to pick up at least a little bit which very well could drive us out of this trading zone.  A move out of this area will likely lead to a 30 $ move in either direction (550 $ if we break down, 630 $ if we break up), but is unlikely to go beyond that in our opinion. 

Moving on to the technicals, we can see on the daily chart below that price is rolling over right around a historical resistance line, the bottom of the pivot area, and at the 9 EMA.  Additionally, there is a volume profile notch just overhead and market structure is coming in bearish, while trading volumes continue to confirm the move to the downside last week.  Lastly, notice that SCMR is painting red candles again while also showing multiple reversal cancellations over the past few days.  This is not a great sign for the bulls, but is also not a death knell.

Despite these bearish indications, it is not all bad news for the bulls at this time.  Notice that Willy is now testing the centerline while in a slight uptrend, RSI remains pinned in the lower half which means that there is room to run to the upside, and PPO is still painting bright green bars (a bullish signal).  Also, MACD is still showing a substantial bullish divergence from the washout last week and is now challenging the zeroline, while the A/D line continues to press to the upside.  Finally, it now appears that we could be in yet another triangle consolidation with a midpoint right around current levels.  This might help explain the stagnation we have seen over the past week as players resign themselves to the fact that we may be at fair value for the time being.

All things considered, we do not want to alter our forecast in any significant way at this time.  Near term caution, medium term neutrality, and longer term bullish bias are how we continue to view the market at this time.  Until we get a breakout from this 580 - 600 $ range we will remain patient in letting the market come to us, however if price does make a move then the key levels to watch are 550 $ to the downside and 630 $ to the upside.  To reiterate, we would continue to employ a "buy the dips, sell the rips" mentality for shorter term scalp trading while we continue to wait for lower prices to add to the longer term positions. 

More charts, reports, and our slack channel here: https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

GLGT!

Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for August 8, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Indeed the weekend brought some subdued price action with a bullish bias up to the 600 $ resistance region as expected.  Now as we enter the new week, price is staying pinned to the 590 $ level which is a sign that there are not as many sellers in this area as previously expected.  Despite the possibility that the bulls continue to push price to the upside through 600 $, we do not think there is enough juice technically speaking to get through heavier resistance around 630 $.  Having said that, we remain buyers around 520 $ and sellers around 630 $ for the time being.

Back to the trusty 12-hour chart today for a look at the short to medium term technicals.  First, we can see that price has popped back above the 200-period SMA and 18 EMA, but is now running into resistance in the form of the 9 EMA as well as the top of the pivot zone.  Also notice that we are entering a fairly large volume profile notch as SCMR continues to paint neutral candles, so we may be stalled around these levels for some time.

Moving on to momentum we can see that Willy has broken above the centerline but looks somewhat toppy near term, RSI remains below 50 and is flatlining, and MACD is still unconvincing for either bulls or bears.  Additionally, the CM Vix remains bullish considering we have a clear volatility bottom on the 465 $ spike low, while the A/D line continues to press to the upside indicating that there are still buyers at these relatively elevated levels.

Seeing as though the market is running into some trouble here around 600 $ while the technicals continue to repair themselves from the damage caused last week, we still think a move back to the downside is likely prior to a breakout over 630 $.  We would be buyers of that dip back into the lower half of the medium term OTE long zone, upper part of the demand area, and around the trendline. 

More generally speaking, we think the market remains in a longer term consolidation as we have been saying for months, while we maintain our forecast for an upside resolution eventually.  That said, we could be stuck in this 450 - 750 $ range for another month or two so we will continue to hunt opportunities within this wide trading range.  We think there will be plenty of them over the coming weeks, however things may move a bit slower than normal due to seasonal factors such as summer vacations and "back to school".

GLGT!

Chart: https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-8-2016