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1  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Rise to 75% (Bloomberg) on: August 30, 2023, 08:49:29 PM
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Rise to 75%

Following a notable victory in a recent court case against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), spot Bitcoin ETF approval odds have now risen to 75%. Specifically, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noted the significance of Grayscale’s victory in court preceding the jump in odds from 65%.

Grayscale has recently won its significant lawsuit against the SEC, with the court ordering the regulator to “vacate” its rejection of a spot Bitcoin ETF application. Subsequently, the move has propelled the odds of an ETF arriving this year up another 10%, with it appearing more likely by the day.

Bitcoin ETF Odds Jump Again Following Grayscale Victory

The race for the United States’ first spot Bitcoin ETF has been an interesting one. For the past several months, digital asset companies and traditional finance enterprises alike have submitted applications for the offerings. Headlined by the participation of asset management firms like BlackRock and Fidelity.

Although the US has yet to approve the creation of such an offering, that is looking more likely to change. Now, the spot Bitcoin ETF approval odds have risen to 75%. Indeed, the notable increase was a result of the SEC’s most recent court defeat at the hands of Grayscale.

Bloomberg’s Balchunas noted that the 75% odds are connected to a spot Bitcoin ETF approval this year. However, he added that those odds would increase to 95% by the end of 2024. Moreover, he stated that the “unanimity and decisiveness of the ruling were beyond expectations,” leaving the SEC in a difficult place.

Ultimately, the oddsmakers noted that the SEC’s defeat is a sign of increased difficulty facing the regulator. Specifically stating that they “will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deals, negative PR, and Hashdex’s novel approach.” Eventually, it is ever more likely that this year will see the very first spot Bitcoin ETF approved for operations in the United States.
2  Economy / Gambling discussion / [Boxing] Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo - September 30th in Las Vegas on: July 01, 2023, 08:21:03 PM

Canelo Alvarez’s next fight had been rumoured to be Jermall Charlo, but instead it is twin brother Jermell Charlo facing the Mexican on September 30; Canelo is the undisputed world champion at super-middleweight, with Jermell jumping up two weight divisions from super-welterweight

If anybody sees odds for the fight please share in the thread.

3  Economy / Speculation / One Bitcoin May Be Worth $1 Billion by 2038, Fidelity Says on: May 31, 2023, 05:02:56 AM

I think we could all enjoy this prediction coming true.

Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity forecasts Bitcoin to reach $1 billion two decades from now, shortly after an earlier $100 million prediction for 2035.

One Bitcoin may be equivalent to $1 billion by 2038, according to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity. Timmer backed up his assertion with a 4-hour BTC/USD chart that combined the stock-to-flow model with his demand model. In Timmer’s words:

“Metcalfe’s Law holds that, as the number of its users grows linearly, a network’s value (or, by inference, the bitcoin price) grows geometrically.”
The implication is that the utility value of Bitcoin will outgrow its operational network. This operational network encompasses buyers, sellers, exchanges, and ATMs. In addition, it also includes participating retailers, both directly and indirectly, and some leading organizations such as the Dallas Mavericks and AT&T. Rounding out this network are a few insurers, several banks, and a multitude of small businesses.

Timmer’s own demand model grows very slowly in proportion to the stock-to-flow combination supply model. The asset management director’s demand model predicts that BTC will reach $1 million by 2030. On the other hand, the stock-to-flow combination model forecasts a price of between $1 million and $10 million by 2030.

Jurrien Timmer’s demand model seems to historically represent the floor or the bottom of the price. The stock-to-flow model appears to be a better fit for the peak. However, the gap between both models widens significantly after 2030. One of the suggested reasons for the widening gap after 2030 is the change in the value of the dollar. It should be noted, however, that this reasoning is not set in stone.

Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Billion Because of Changes in the Dollar Value

Timmer stated that the value of the dollar changes in relation to other assets. He further pointed out that $1 invested in stocks in the 18th century is worth about $4 billion of today’s money. Going by this assumption, $1 million today could be worth $1 billion in twenty years’ time.

Changes in the dollar’s value, especially depreciation over several decades, render the same amount with less purchasing power. This is why huge sums back then appear less by today’s standards. For instance, $1 million could purchase a lot of significant things a few decades ago. To put this in perspective, reasonably higher-end houses in the US cost between $20,000 and $50,000. The same $1 million may not suffice for the same class of houses today.

There is an increasing number of billionaires across the globe today. Some observers even believe that we may see the first trillionaire in this lifetime. The same applies to organizations, with several companies now passing the $1 trillion market cap valuation.

Fidelity had previously pegged BTC to hit $100 million by 2035 using the same stock-to-flow model. Jurrien Timmer also made those predictions back then. As untested and uncertain Timmer’s predictions are, he is not the only one with such lofty forecasts. Deutsche Bank also forecasts that Bitcoin will dominate by 2030.
4  Economy / Reputation / 20000 posts on: May 23, 2023, 03:37:30 PM
Your boy LFC_Bitcoin hits 20,000 posts here on bitcointalk. 20,000 posts and 7146 Earned Merit, maybe I need to go outside a bit more Grin Cheesy

10 years in bitcoin now, it’s been a real journey and will continue to be. Bitcoin has given me everything, it’s one of the best things that ever happened to me. Being an early adopter gave me opportunities I never would have had otherwise. I’ve really enjoyed myself on the forum too and made some real life friends.

Here are some of the stats I have on

This forum is one of the very best places to learn about bitcoin. I’ve picked up so much knowledge here in 10 years. I’ve learnt things that are not readily available elsewhere so let me raise a glass to everybody, Legendary Members and Noobs.  
5  Economy / Gambling discussion / [Boxing] Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder - May 6th in Mexico on: March 14, 2023, 07:10:01 PM

Mexican star Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez confirms homecoming fight against Britain's John Ryder on May 6; WBC, WBA, IBF and WBO super-middleweight belts all at stake in undisputed title clash at Akron Stadium in Guadalajara.
6  Economy / Gambling discussion / [Boxing] Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury - February 26 in Saudi Arabia on: January 17, 2023, 03:14:38 PM

Tommy Fury finally set to fight Jake Paul as Saudi Arabia throw millions to host bout instead of UK.

Boosted Odds from -

Jake Paul  1.62
Tommy Fury  2.32

Wouldn’t surprise me if Fury pulls out again. His girlfriend is due to have her baby soon, not that he needs an excuse to run away from a fight Wink
7  Economy / Gambling discussion / 🏏 Men's T20 World Cup 2022 🏏 Discussion thread on: October 11, 2022, 03:44:16 PM 🏏 Men's T20 World Cup 2022 🏏

     Official Website -


The ICC Men's T20 World Cup (earlier known as ICC World Twenty20) is the international championship of Twenty20 cricket. Organised by cricket's governing body, the International Cricket Council (ICC), the tournament currently consists of 16 teams, comprising the top ten teams from the rankings at the given deadline and six other teams chosen through the T20 World Cup Qualifier.'s_T20_World_Cup

Mens T20 World Cup starts this weekend, and this is your place for all discussion, bets and tips.

Who do you think will be champion, who will be the top batsman, who will be the best bowler?

Let's hear your thoughts and predictions!

I really like seeing bet slips so share your bet slips too!

8  Economy / Gambling discussion / Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley 2 - December 18 on: December 06, 2021, 04:32:56 PM

Tommy Fury has pulled out of the fight due to a “medical condition” and Tyron Woodley is stepping in for December 18th for the official rematch.

9  Other / Off-topic / URGENT APPLE SOFTWARE UPDATE on: September 14, 2021, 12:22:17 PM
Please update your devices.

Apple has released iOS 14.8, an urgent iPhone update that all users should install now. That’s because it comes with a warning—iOS 14.8 is an important security only upgrade for two vulnerabilities that Apple believes adversaries are already using to attack people’s iPhones.
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Uruguayan Lawmaker Proposes Bill to Treat Crypto as Legal Tender on: August 04, 2021, 09:47:14 PM
The project, presented by ruling party senator Juan Sartori, includes a regulatory framework for crypto exchanges and miners.

A senator from Uruguay has introduced a bill to make cryptocurrencies legal tender in the South American country.

The bill, which was presented on Tuesday by Sen. Juan Sartori, seeks to provide “legal, financial and fiscal security in the business derived from the production and commercialization” of cryptocurrencies.

“Crypto assets will be recognized and accepted by law and applicable in any legal business. They will be considered valid means of payment,” the project states.

Sartori’s bill would establish that cryptocurrencies “are products of free sale by those entities and individuals who wish to commercialize them,” and states that any natural or legal person “may receive and/or send funds in legal tender from and to their own bank accounts or those of licensed companies.”

If the bill becomes law, the government would issue a “first license” that would enable companies to trade crypto assets on exchanges. A second license would allow “storing, holding or safekeeping crypto assets,” while a third would be used to issue crypto assets or utility tokens with “financial characteristics.”

According to the bill, Uruguay’s executive branch would grant the licenses to entities that are in compliance with anti-money laundering secretariat (Senaclaft) and the Central Bank of Uruguay. For other transactions, the “use of all these instruments will be free and will not require prior consent, permits or licenses.”

Sartori’s bill also stipulates the regulation of crypto mining. Miners wouldn’t need a special license like a doctor, but would need permits from Uruguay’s Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mining in order to operate.

The measure also includes the “promotion of technical training for electrical, civil and computer engineers in the generation of virtual assets.”

According to the bill, Senaclaft “will keep a registry of virtual asset service providers” and of those individuals or legal entities that wish to carry out activities of generation and commercialization of virtual assets.

Sartori belongs to the ruling National Party. He ran for the National Party’s nomination for president in 2019.

In the Senate, the National Party and its allies, which form a coalition named Coalición Multicolor, hold the majority, with 17 of the 30 seats.

To date only one country has adopted bitcoin as legal tender: El Salvador, which approved a bill earlier this year.

Article Credit:

Andrés Engler
Aug 4, 2021 at 7:57 p.m. UTC
Updated Aug 4, 2021 at 8:27 p.m. UTC
11  Economy / Gambling discussion / [Boxing]: Manny Pacquiao vs Errol Spence Jr - August 21 on: May 21, 2021, 10:24:42 PM


Manny Pacquiao has signed a deal to fight Errol Spence Jr. for the unified welterweight championship on Aug. 21 in Las Vegas, a source told The Athletic's Mike Coppinger on Friday.

I think I’m gonna bet on Pacquiao to win, he’s looking good value. I know he’s older now but you don’t lose your boxing brain, he’s still so fast too, one of the greatest ever.


12  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Donate to Cøbra (pending court battle against Craig Wright) on: April 24, 2021, 07:42:46 PM
I’m sure you’ve all read about Craig Wright (Faketoshi) attempting to prove ownership of & claims he wrote the bitcoin whitepaper & is Satoshi.

This week London’s High Court have permitted Wright to chase down Cøbra over ‘copyright infringement’.

You can read the full story here -

Any way, my reason for starting this thread is just to see if anybody wanted to donate to Cøbra’s publicly displayed bitcoin address ahead of court litigation. You can see his bitcoin address on his official Twitter -

My BTC address is 1Cobra3fJstD9g3DJ2oaUpDps5gJsZa4eS and my PGP key fingerprint is 61559B1EEFB3F8DA6C40BAAC6F85594478CE4C7A.

(Please follow the link to verify his receiving address for yourself).

I just wanted to give people the chance to donate to Cøbra. We’re all here for a true love of bitcoin. Good honest trustworthy people who have dedicated their lives to bitcoin deserve our support.

(Sorry if this is in the wrong section of the forum - Wasn’t sure where to post - Feel free to move if necessary)

13  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Taproot Speedy Trial Code - - Merged Into Bitcoin Core on: April 15, 2021, 02:59:10 PM
Taproot Speedy Trial Code Merged Into Bitcoin Core
The merge puts an end to a long road of activation discussions – now all that's left is Taproot's actual activation.

Article Credit - Colin Harper - Apr 15, 2021 at 2:50 p.m. UTC

The code for Taproot’s “Speedy Trial,” an activation method for Bitcoin’s biggest upgrade in years, has been merged into Bitcoin Core.

On April 15, Bitcoin Core developers Fanquake and Marco Falke merged two complementary pull requests authored by AJ Townes and Andrew Chow for Speedy Trial. With Speedy Trial now merged into Bitcoin Core’s source code, Taproot’s code is ready to start its first step toward activation when the code is released in May.

Bitcoin’s community, from developers to avid users, all agree that Taproot, which implements the Schnorr signature scheme into Bitcoin code, will be a boon for the network by making complex transactions (what the cool kids call “smart contracts”) more scalable and private.

Read more: How Bitcoin’s Taproot Upgrade Will Improve Technology Across Bitcoin’s Software Stack
No one has agreed on how to bring Taproot online, though. Because Bitcoin is decentralized, it requires painstaking coordination between actors to make sure an upgrade is released properly. After months and months of activation discussions led to a stalemate, Bitcoin developer David Harding and Russell O’Connor devised Speedy Trial as a way to put an end to the impasse.

How Speedy Trial works

The compromise allots a three-month activation window, during which time the network requires a certain threshold of miners to signal for the upgrade; if this threshold is reached, then Taproot is “locked in” and activates three months after the threshold is crossed.

Should this trial fail, then Taproot doesn’t activate (and the network will have only wasted three months trying, hence “speedy”).

The compromise brokered an agreement between those who wanted an activation via Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) 9, which means the upgrade fails if miners don’t adopt, and BIP8, which gives node operators (those running Bitcoin’s source code who act as “servers” for the network) an option to force the upgrade with a user activated soft fork if it fails.

Miners have shown no signs of blocking the upgrade, making the drawn-out discussions a source of frustration for some stakeholders.
14  Economy / Reputation / AdkinsBet - My personal experience on: January 24, 2021, 04:13:51 PM
The AdkinsBet scam accusations have been bothering me for a while.  It began to remind me of scam accusations against other trustworthy casinos that turned out to be fake.

I automatically believed the accusers which is probably a little silly. Any way, I set up an account with AdkinsBet this weekend & made some bets to test them out.  They offered good odds so I figured why not.

I was quite lucky on an accumulator & won 0.01BTC from my stake.
I made my first withdrawal request which was processed successfully with no issues.

It makes me think that the scam accusations against them are possibly match fixers & or multi-accounters.

Any way, hopefully all the scam accusations get settled and they are able to be another trustworthy sportsbook that myself and others can use.
15  Economy / Reputation / Bossian Reputation Thread on: December 04, 2020, 12:04:59 PM
Some time ago I made a bet with Bossian. He said we would not see a new ATH by 1st Jan 2022 & I said that we would.

Full bet details are here -

He has today paid me in full (0.05BTC).

I have left him positive trust, can I please request that others remove their neg trusts because he has paid me.;u=2525660
16  Economy / Gambling / Where can I make this US Election bet? on: November 23, 2020, 10:34:10 PM
I really want to make this US Elections prop bet, but I can’t see any Bitcoin sportsbooks who are offering it.

Adkinsbet is offering odds but they only just registered on the forum last week so I’d really prefer not to use them. I believe they were recently under a DDOS attack so best not to start betting with them.

Merit available for anybody who can suggest a reputable BTC sportsbook who are offering the above bet.

Thanks in advance.

(Screenshot - Betfair)

Note: All low quality posts made by sig spammers will be deleted (thread is self moderated).
17  Economy / Gambling / Sportsbooks that aren’t paying out on Biden winning the US Presidential Election on: November 10, 2020, 08:49:08 PM
I placed a bet with on Biden to win the election. They have paid me out my winnings.

A few people I know made the same bet with Nitrogen Sports & another guy with betBTC & they’re all worried that I’ve been paid out but Nitrogen & betBTC are stalling.

Is anybody else experiencing the above issue? Clearly Biden is the new POTUS yet Nitrogen & betBTC are stalling.

Every single news outlet is reporting that Biden is the winner and I’ve seen his speech.  
My guess is that any sportsbook refusing to pay out on Biden is desperately hoping for some nonsense court case which has a close to zero chance of happening.

If anyone wants to contribute about being paid/not being paid, I encouarage you to post in this thread. It’d be really good to make the community aware of any difficulties anybody is having with certain sportsbooks.

It’s good to know in advance of the next elections which bookies pay up fast and which don’t.

Thanks guys.
18  Economy / Speculation / Predict the bitcoin price range as we enter the New Year on: September 27, 2020, 12:46:50 PM
I’m just genuinely curious to see the sentiment amongst bitcointalk posters. Please no trolling which includes being overly bearish or bullish. Just vote for what you genuinely think, no agendas.

Personally, I’m thinking option 4 ($12,001 - $14,000).

It’ll be interesting to see the results.
19  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Craig Wright To Face Trial on: September 21, 2020, 08:36:03 PM

Craig Wright Must Face Trial Over Alleged $11B Bitcoin Fortune as Request for Summary Judgment Denied

The District Court for the Southern District of Florida has denied Craig Wright’s request for summary judgment in a case that involves claims over ownership of about 1.1 million bitcoin (worth over $11 billion).

In an order signed on Monday, Judge Beth Bloom at the Florida court denied Wright’s motion seeking summary judgment that would have prevented the matter from proceeding to a full trial.

The case, first brought in 2018,  involves the plaintiff Ira Kleiman’s argument on behalf of the estate of his late brother David, that half of Wright’s bitcoin worth and intellectual property belongs to Kleiman. The plaintiff has argued that the bitcoin in question was also mined together by Wright and Kleiman.
Wright’s request for summary judgment was comprised of six claims including statute of limitations, the plaintiff’s inability to prove the existence of an oral partnership and the court’s lack of subject matter jurisdiction.
In the past, Wright has claimed that he was the inventor of bitcoin under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, an assertion many in the crypto world have disputed due to a lack of corroborating evidence.
According to an order issued by the Florida court on Sept. 4, the trial involving Wright’s bitcoin fortune has now been moved to Jan. 4, 2021.

Stick him in jail & throw away the key.
20  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Move xx.xx amount of coins from one specific address to another (Bitcoin Core) on: August 09, 2020, 02:20:44 PM
Is there a way of moving a certain amount of bitcoin from one address in Bitcoin Core Wallet to another address in the same Bitcoin Core Wallet?

Is there a command?

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