So let's make the best sort of bet there is : a bet for token consideration. At that time when Bitcoin is worthless, I will pay you 10`000 Bitcoins - thats 0.1% of the Bitcoins that currently exist. At that time when the USD is worthless, you will pay me 20 billion dollars - that's 0.1% of the dollars that currently exist (roughly speaking). This bet has no specified date of closure, it's either party's own and free decision when this "worthlessness" event has occured. Remarkably, neither party has any interest to lie : once their side is truely worthless the closing of the bet is, from a game theory perspective, a rational, +EV move.

Any takers ?

Original article.

Glad your enjoying it, shows loads from a competing business owner and a staff member at that.

Don't delude yourself. You're not competing with him, you're competing with this guy:

It's spelled "Sweden",

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwMxpFERQ1A

[The List]

First off, this list doesn't include proven scammers. There's a different mechanism to handle those. That said, if you hold outstanding unpaid obligations from anyone on this list I'd certainly want to hear about it, either publicly or privately.

Second off, this list doesn't include nickel and dime outfits (which is why people like usagi aren't here). There's currently no mechanism to handle those (outside of reading the lending forum, I guess), but there's also not much incentive.

Third off, this list doesn't include well known, argued to death cases. That's why BFL isn't here: if you don't know by now that a lot of people are suspicious of them and for what reasons you're beyond help.

To sum up: large, dangerous, lurking just under the waterline. Taking the icebergs out of the high seas of Bitcoin finance one at a time.

This list is, as anything woman made (which you'll notice includes all men), subject to error. I will diligently endeavor to correct any actual errors as best I can. On the other hand, anyone and everyone included would claim the list itself and any part thereof is erroneous - simple game theory dictates it. Quite frankly I couldn't care less.

Finally, you'll have plenty of warning before showing up here. In general, I'll ask you some questions in whatever thread you're using to announce your thing and you'll fail to respond adequately. Note that simple stupidity isn't enough to make the cut, significant potential of harm to the clueless investor from interacting with your stupidity has to also be present.

The List

Bitfinex - coupla dudes picked up Bitcoinica's source as leaked by Taaki and are since herpderping around.

Btcjam - not a scam per se, just carries the scam-enabler torch dropped by GLBSE. Repayment rate of 77% declared by op (tho that's probably significantly overstated).

Picostocks - possibly the most laughable thing on the forum. Guy's gonna make a 100Th farm out of bitfuries and other stuff (after having bought 1000 bASIC boards bASIC never sold).

Coinlab/Coinbase/Coincrap - Multiple cases of stealing from users through the "canceling BTC sale when price goes up" scam, amplified by "pay anyone complaining on the forum" double-down. In any event their burn rate takes them out of the picture this year, so damage should be limited, but try and sit at a safe distance.

Opencoin's Ripple - closed source scamcoin built on top of an ill baked, badly designed reimplementation of the Federal Reserve. Owned by Jed Caleb (the first guy who stole from MtGox). Supported by some clueless VC funds, which led to absurd claims on obscure blogs ("larger than bitcoin") and a lot of noise on this forum from well known shill accounts (MisterBigg, JoelKatz etc) dragging some naive/new people along.

Bitcoin Foundation. Pretends with no basis to be representative for Bitcoin. Is organized as a swindle, in the sense that it takes "donations" in exchange for "membership" (ie, like any "investment club" out there) but it never reports income and expenditure. The head and treasurer are the same person (Peter Vessenes), a known confidence artist from the start-up congame, who already blew up a so-called Bitcoin venture or two (above) and who is actually using the donated Bitcoin for his own purposes on his own account. Sells reputation propping services to various known scams (BFL, MtGox etc). Steer as clear as at all possible.

MtGox Notorious fractional reserve "exchange". Famous for having nearly destroyed Bitcoin in 2009 and for having tried (unsuccessfully) to brand it as a Ponzi in 2013. The principal (Mark Karpeles) is currently on the hook with the DoJ for having lied in filings, which means any BTC you send to MtGox is practically speaking a donation to his defense fund.

BFL Collected large sums of BTC from the general public for the past ~18 months, principally via heavy google advertising and with the help of meanwhile notorious scammers and shills (like gigavps, lukejr, quite a pirate-like list) on the pretense they are to deliver ASIC mining technology. Blew most of the Bitcoin on hookers (Josh Zerlan) and blow, managed to buy some functioning chips from competitors (much like their earlier FPGA deliveries consisted of sanded off chips bought on the cheap) and are for the past few months trying to parlay token prototype deliveries into more orders. Any BTC you send to BFL is practically speaking a donation to the forum lolfund.

The ex-List

icbit.se - old site, suspected at some point coupla months ago of running as bucket shop. They did however fully honor their obligations to MP (to the tune of ~500 BTC) and made various changes to their code. I've not looked it into it since, and have currently no reason to suspect shenanigans.

It'd seem irresponsible not to hedge if one's running a farm, and it'd also seem trivial to calculate both how much to sell and for what price based on the known operational costs etc. So I'm curious, what's the friction point?

[I. How it works, user side]

I. How it works, user side. In order to buy a bond you need to:
a) email stating how much you're sending, what interest you seek and to what address interest and capital should be paid;
b) send your capital to 1JPvucRfu3ZzEvfBUQTJwsxMrZjeTqD6zR making sure the 6th, 7th and 8th digit are 8. Example: 100.00000888 BTC.

That's it. Your bond counts starting with the next month, you will be receiving monthly interest payments. On request you will receive your capital as well, but only on a month's end (4th weekend in any month).

II. How it works, MPEx side. Every month's end (4th Friday of each month) the capital needs for that month are calculated. For January 2013 this came to 60,807.41 BTC. Then, all the bonds are sorted in ascending order by their demanded interest rate, up to the fulfillment of the capital needed. All accepted bonds receive the same interest, equal to the highest asked.

For instance, in January this came up to:

198xX3n8ov4ejgEsWjt3SpPRkDuieL3EHA 120.00000888
1D7YtrxnyK3ug3Rvp9jX66T8kVzWww9Jr8 4`478.46233504
1Mn65Q9Xm6NBoPdF8ppS3AzgRLt92ZKtTq 100.00000888
16yqE5GW2iLnXvCX3SHe6r5UbRFAuARond 2`261.23910617
1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW 3`708.33297766
1CqQiHmp2T3TWXZx3J7yueDxH5rVnZ9A94 1`726.89016169
1A2hqHVSUERAT3t1yJ7ggYCQccvH6pZGZm 1`904.91150845
Mircea Popescu 46`507.57389323

In this case all bonds were accepted and MP added more capital, because the total capital needed exceeded the bonds deposited. The interest paid was 9.99%, equal to the highest interest asked (by the guy with the 1,904.91150845 BTC).

In December, on the other hand, needed capital was only 7,292.03 BTC. As a result fewer bonds were accepted:

16yqE5GW2iLnXvCX3SHe6r5UbRFAuARond 2`261.23910617 BTC
1D7YtrxnyK3ug3Rvp9jX66T8kVzWww9Jr8 4`478.46233504 BTC
1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW 552.32855879 BTC

Thus the interest paid was lower (4.99%). That latest guy only had part of his total deposit accepted, because only part was needed.

In the cases where the MPOE bot makes a loss, however, that loss will be applied to bonds capital, like for instance what happened in November:

Loss applicable to bonded capital : 1`961.31822035 BTC
Loss per BTC : 0.04754425.

While the interest paid was 9.9%, so a guy with 1,832.00000888 deposited received 181.36800087 in cash, the loss meant his bond capital retained for next month lowered from 1,832.00000888 to 1,744.89894245 (a 87.1010664 BTC loss on capital partially offsetting the 181.36800087 gain realized on interest).

III. In January bonds were paid a total of 6,074.660259 BTC. That's certainly the largest chunk of change paid out as interest by anyone in January, and I'd venture the guess that if you added up all the interest paid by anyone and everyone, plus all the revenue from PMBs and other such quasi-lending operations, you still won't come close to 6k BTC. If anyone can prove otherwise I'd certainly very much like to see it.

A large chunk of that 6k went to MP, because there weren't enough bonds on hand to cover the sudden surge in options trading that happened on the 24th. This literally means that if you were keeping your BTC somewhere else than in MPOE bonds you missed out, and if you made less than 10% you indeed realized a loss.

Obviously it is not always the case that MPOE bonds pay that much or that well. Here's a survey of their performance over the ~year they have been available to the public.

There are no fees whatever associated with this, but there is a 100 BTC minimum required to participate directly. You may however bypass this by buying some indirect managed instrument, such as for instance are available on Bitfunder.

If you have questions I'll be glad to answer, paste them below.

Highlights: ~10k MPOE (6k interest, 4k dividends), ~1k MPEx (huge sign-ups). 9.99% MPBOR. Almost 200k total contracts traded. Third party ownership for the first time over 10%. My salary revealed. Etc.

Full story.

Haven't seen the old bird for what, months now.

On the basis of last trade,
S.DICE at 100,000,000 shares x 0.00632181 each = 632,181 total BTC market capitalization.
S.MPOE at 1,000,000,000 shares x 0.00062071 each = 620,710 total BTC market capitalization.

Of course the last trade isn't a particularly solid point of reference, and average prices for instance paint a different picture:

<assbot> [MPEX:S.MPOE] 1D: 0.00059613 / 0.00067264 / 0.0007 (12311765 shares, 8,281.44 BTC), 7D: 0.00059445 / 0.00065233 / 0.0007 (23989321 shares, 15,649.06 BTC), 30D: 0.00059445 / 0.00065039 / 0.0007 (51770531 shares, 33,671.44 BTC)
<assbot> [MPEX:S.DICE] 1D: 0.00085848 / 0.00381004 / 0.00699 (551781 shares, 2,102.31 BTC), 7D: 0.00085848 / 0.00447518 / 0.00699 (962889 shares, 4,309.11 BTC), 30D: 0.00085848 / 0.00416676 / 0.00699 (10220055 shares, 42,584.56 BTC)

Still, it's the first time something has passed ahead of MPOE/MPEx, a first that no doubt will be soon surpassed.

Congrats to the winners! Shares of listed companies now account for ~12% of Bitcoin in circulation, and are likely the single largest sector of the Bitcoin economy. Our projection is that market cap of listed Bitcoin corps will be over 100% circulating Bitcoin this year or the next, what's yours?

Just wanted to share.

(Yes, that's about 1/2 MtGox today, or 2x the sum of all other exchanges.)

From the mouth of the wolf himself:

All you have to do is get MPEx mentioned in the press. You will not be paid for anything other than this : getting mentions. Personal blogs do not count, random sites nobody heard about don't count. As a general rule with few exceptions, unless it used to be a widely circulated newspaper before 1990ish it's a waste of your time. Actual print mentions are ok even though the links aren't clickable : I will send copies of the issue to my mother to bother her.

You are free to negotiate your rate, and if you can show ample and convincing proof of previous success in comparable endeavours you may even obtain a retainer. Contact me via email. You can be starting as soon as right now.

Whole story.

The bet on whether BFL ships by March 1st is now 751.19 BTC NO : 784.45 BTC YES (55 confirmed bets so far).

I guess this would actually be the biggest in the history of BTC period if not for that fabled Vandroyi vs Pirate 10k private bet last year.

Gaze upon its nude glory:



It also made it in the press!

[Three years baby]

BATS Notification of System Issue

January 09, 2013 18:39:43

Dear Member,

Please be advised that BATS has determined that upon an NBBO update on BATS' BYX Exchange, BZX Exchange and BATS Options, there are certain cases where the Matching Engine will allow for a trade through or an execution of a short sale order at a price that is equal to or less than the NBB when a short sale circuit breaker is in effect under Regulation SHO. These cases result from the sequencing of certain required events in the Matching Engine related to re-pricing and sliding orders in response to the NBBO update.

In the first case, a visible order that is posted and has been price slid can execute at a price that trades through another market center's protected quote if that away market center locks the displayed price of the BATS order and then BATS receives another order that crosses the working price of the resting order.

In the second case, the system was programmed to allow non-displayed peg orders to re-price in response to a change in the NBBO prior to sliding previously booked contra-side hidden orders that now cross an away market center. As a result, it is possible that in response to a change in the NBBO, the price of a resting hidden order could be crossing the NBBO momentarily and an execution could occur at that crossing price against a peg order that is re-priced in response to the NBBO change, resulting in a trade through. This particular issue can also result in a short sale order executing at a price that is equal to or less than the NBB while a Regulation SHO circuit breaker is in effect.

These system compliance issues have resulted in the following incidents:
Trade Throughs
=============
BATS Options
(02/26/10 - 01/04/13)
Average Daily Incidents: 1.4
Total Incidents: 617

Source.

If you think Bitcoin services suck, you should check out fiat services sometime.

Three years baby.

[no voting rights]

So...all the public shares have a total of 10 millions, that's 10% of total shares.

Let's say I buy 1 million shares to get 1% of satoshidice.

1 000 000 x 0.0032 = 3200 BTC.
It costs 3200 BTC to buy 1%.

Expected to have 2700 BTC / month in total profit. 1% of 2700 BTC = 27 BTC.
It cost me 3200 BTC to get 27 BTC / month and it would take me around 118 months to recoup my initial investment, or around 10 years.

I like satoshidice and I appreciate its potential....but I'm not sure at all.

yeah, i was like lulz....

Given the figures of 65BTC/day, 10% across all shares, and so on, I got about 0.5%/month return. With your figures I got about 0.8%/mo. I understand that under most business plans 7%/wk is a clear scam, but this seems like the other side of crazy..

SatoshiDICE is worth 320,000 BTC or $3,200,000 at $10/BTC?

It would take a long time to pay off the 20btc it costs to register on MPEX 

what is stopping someone from coding up a clone of satoshi dice over a weekend and taking a piece of
the pie... thus reducing your profits.

it seems that is a major threat i would love to hear countered.

what is stopping someone from coding up a clone of satoshi dice over a weekend and taking a piece of
the pie... thus reducing your profits.

it seems that is a major threat i would love to hear countered.

i know of two clones being worked on now, and one for ltc.

its the only reason why iv not started my own yet. however if people buy this stock at this price i will be forced to

There are clones up and running

I'm working on a variant myself

did i read the fine print right, 100,000,000 shares at .0032 or 3,200,00 btc or more than 30 million usd?

that is insane...

So...all the public shares have a total of 10 millions, that's 10% of total shares.

Let's say I buy 1 million shares to get 1% of satoshidice.

1 000 000 x 0.0032 = 3200 BTC.
It costs 3200 BTC to buy 1%.

Expected to have 2700 BTC / month in total profit. 1% of 2700 BTC = 27 BTC.
It cost me 3200 BTC to get 27 BTC / month and it would take me around 118 months to recoup my initial investment, or around 10 years.

I like satoshidice and I appreciate its potential....but I'm not sure at all.

I am convinced you are not a ponzi scheme - mainly because the returns are so unattractive

There is at least 1 clone of SD:  http://btcdice.com/
And a "themed" clone of satoshidice: http://satoshiroulette.com/

with the market expected to grow I dont see people ever getting their ROI.

Also Id like to know what bank SD has behind the casino

why are the bonds being sold 3200% their stated value in the contract. wont they just free fall after the ipo?

Investing in SatoshiDICE actually peaked my interest. These returns are ridiculous though...

0.0033278 BTC for 1/100M of 10%? Are you insane?

Thank the gods that this one did not show up in GLBSE or in any of the other new exchanges that have popped up lately.
20 BTC for opening a account? This is a robbery.
 

"Want a piece of SatoshiDICE"

LOL... With a deal like this, you do not get even a piece of SatoshiDICE'es ass hair.
There are better and more noble ways to burn your BTC.

Subtracting out one-time costs is a fairly common practice for companies that report non-GAAP statements (though in the real world they must also report GAAP earnings and cannot simply hide one-time costs because they feel like it).

Overall, this seems like a terrible investment idea to me on pretty much all fronts.  You're dealing with a non-entity ("unregistered corporation" wtf?) to purchase extremely small amounts of a business that is extremely easy to copy (see Groupon).  SatoshiDice appears to currently be a sole proprietorship and will remain so in reality because these "shares" have no voting rights.

These "shares" bear more similarities to a an annuity than they do to actual equity.  On top of this, I see nothing resembling an audited financial statement.  Proceed at your own, in my opinion extreme, risk.

While a P/E of 10 for a growth company is attractive as a normal investment, a 10 P/E ratio just isn't attractive at all in the world of bitcoin finance. The risks greatly bring down any reasonable P/E ratio, just look at any super high risk company on any major market. Those with growth are still prices in single digit P/Es most of the time. Bitcoin, as of right now, is much riskier than that, therefor companies based in bitcoin should have P/Es to match.

If the IPO had a reasonable valuation, I would give it more thought. Right now a 10 P/E is inappropriate for nearly any BTC based venture.

If SatoshiDICE future growth has so little risk and such high potential then why on earth is the owner selling equity instead of selling bonds?

This reminds me of the FeedZeBirds asset, which was also a profitable website and after the IPO they seemed to have stopped working on it without paying a single dividend, because other projects became more important  

TL;DR S.DICE is overvalued - company should improve its management

I would love to have a pice of s.dice, but the deal sucks for everyone else except for you.
 And I can't see how the company would keep it's value when bitcoin rallies against the other currencies.. thumbs down.

They handily dropped by, no need 

Frankly, meh, if anyone wants to buy into SD at a >$3 million valuation on an exchange that shares its domain name with a porn/gore site, let them.

I wish them the best of luck finding buyers at that rate. I just don't think it's terribly likely that this IPO will be successful 

LOL.... well... one of us is using our real world identity to conduct business, at least  Who are you, again?

And LOL is a highly professional term, expressing humor across the web of space that divides us.

Someone that makes many times more than you without having to beg for monies on the forums. Do you really think exposing your real name makes you more respectable? In the real world all that matters is CASH MONEY. Same reason Matthew N. Wright Is a laughing stock with an orange ignore button and Pirate has 50 people defending him. Most profitable bitcoin business is a joke. Have you ever compared your profit to SR, exchanges, or similar? Good luck on your shitty IPO on that shitty exchange, though.

My train of thought after reading this thread...

Cool satoshiDice IPO..
Wow. way over priced, ~5 000 000 USD$ for this ? ... 10years to payout if nothing fail, or something better come out...
...would I even trust GLBSE ,,, Hmm,,

Then this  ... :

...
Admitedly, MPEx is a bit more complicated to use than GLBSE.

Here's the FAQ http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/faq.html[/url]

It's run by Mircea Popescu (you can contact him with questions: mircea_popescu on IRC  http://webchat.freenode.net/?channels=bitcoin-assets )

facepam moment

1. Dear Lord, what is this ?

    Yes, this is dog.

2. What is an MPSIC ?

    Short for Mircea Popescu Standard Identification Code. It's true that it's not very standard, but on the other hand it's very code-y, so it all evens out in the end....

Yeah yeah,,, fuck off , TLDR ... humor into stock exchanges documentation, R U fkin kiddin me ?

Then went to http://polimedia.us/ ...  Empty white site with a picture of gypsies...WTF ?

Then learn about 20btc fee,

/*insert slow clap meme here* /

This thread is a freakin' hoot.

and this MPEX place seems totally legit.

lmao

Meanwhile,

<mircea_popescu> !ticker s.dice
<assbot> [MPEX:S.DICE] 1day: 0.00449 / 0.00468334 / 0.00478919 (362534 shares, 1,697.87 BTC), 30day: 0.0014 / 0.00341561 / 0.0048 (14083889 shares, 48,105.09 BTC)

So here's the simple truth of the matter: someone sinking 1,000 BTC in S.DICE late August has meanwhile received 97.340735598 BTC in dividends and could have already sold his shares (if he wanted to) for (0.00468334/0.0032)*1000 = 1,463.54375 BTC. This all comes to a 56% return on investment, or 560.884485598 BTC in cold, hard liquid profit. Late August is just about twenty weeks ago.

Someone putting up 20 BTC and getting an MPEx account now has an account worth 30 BTC. That's a 50% ROI also.

You were wrong. All of you quoted here and all the others that I was too bored to fish out. You were wrong.

What now?

[Site will be listed on MPEx]

Introducing BitBet, the Bitcoin betting site. (There's also an FAQ.)

Chief points:

Site will be listed on MPEx, under the ticker S.BBET. You can read all the details there, but basically it's an equal partnership between MP & Matic Kočevar (aka kakobrekla). The IPO will start Friday, January 11th at 0:00 GMT, with a 10,000 share block (0.1%) asking 1000 satoshi per share. Each time a block is sold out a new one of equal size will be placed at a price 3% higher (rounded upwards). Once 300 such blocks have placed the IPO is complete.

Leading affiliate system. To quote from the FAQ,

Could I become an affiliate?

Sure. Simply send traffic to any link on bitbet.us adding ?ref=1YourBtcAddress at the end of the link. You will be credited 1% of all deposits made by anyone you refer for 30 days (normal cookie identification).

Add links to bets in your forum signatures, blog articles, wherever and get the BTC straight to your wallet.

You make BTC just by submitting acceptable bets. Each new bet has a 0.1 (or more) BTC betting pool which upon approval will be split between Yes and No sides. You are automatically allocated the smaller side (as an incentive to make balanced bets). This way, every time a bet you proposed is closed you earn some BTC. Please review the FAQ and only submit meaningful, interesting bets.

Any questions? Ask away!

The source is here: http://mpex.co/faq.html

Anyone willing to do this? Thanks.

Integrated quantum computer system with 128 qubit chipset AVAILABLE FOR PREORDER NOW. Deliveries slated to begin early January. No concerns of Chinese New Year.

Link: http://www.dwavesys.com/en/dw_homepage.html

Sorry everyone. The jig, it is up.

I wish to know who Mencius Moldbug of http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/ is. Finder's fee available. Thanks.

It may please you to learn that the one time we've made a mistake and credited a user's account ~400 BTC twice he declared it and got to keep it.

Take it down a notch. You're a smaller fish than you think in a larger pond than you imagine.

[January 5th, 2013]

Starting on January 5th, 2013 all MPEx accounts that have a zero BTC balance and zero holdings of any kind (including any stocks, shares, options, futures, funds, also including any sums deposited as collateral for option or future issuance) will be disabled. This means you will not be able to use MPEx (”Unrecognized signature. Please email your public key first.” error.)

Starting on February 5th, 2013 all MPEx accounts that have been disabled as per above and have not been reinstated will be purged. This means all account data will be deleted. Accounts’ signature will be replaced with MPEx’s own in our trade history databases. Signed receipts will be discarded. You will not be able to file any claims for anything whatsoever after this date.

In order to reinstate a disabled account you can contact us any time after January 5th, 2013 but before February 5th, 2013. Your account will be re-enabled on request, however, if your balances etc are still zero on February 5th, 2013 your account will still be purged.

This will be a recurring yearly event. Please plan your account management accordingly.

Original article.