If you were here in 2011 (I was using several other accounts that got banned), you are probably feeling the same way as me right now.

Let's just say that the events that unfolded yesterday are far more exciting to those in the know than the explosive growth we recently experienced.

Not going to spoil it for the newbies, they need to learn this lesson for themselves...

Disclaimer: I am not buying or selling Bitcoins right now.

https://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

What? You guys must be looking at a different chart to me.

Your response to yesterday is that you are a victim of your own success.

It might be easy for you to think like that while you smash profit records, but that is not success.

Your job is to facilitate and execute trades, when you can do that you are successful. With that in mind you are a complete and utter failure.

The reason the price is going down is because the same people that were buying when it was going up are now selling.

We are now in a bear market.

[Let's play a game.]

Let's play a game.
What happens next?


#1











































Microsoft!













#2











































Enron!














#3











































Apple
















#4

If you have been here for a while, you are probably making all kinds of gains.

I bet you love this shit. I know I do.

We have a huge flood of newbies. As the price is going up most people decide not to sell since they can just sell higher at a later date.

What we are experiencing right now is called a melt up.

Melt up is a term that refers to the general improvement of the value of the stock market not correlated with improvements in the fundamentals of the economy. This usually refers to bubble type movements, where investors buy into an asset because the growth is rocketing upwards instead of fundamentals of the asset, or the result of general inflation.

A dramatic and unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset class driven partly by a stampede of investors who don't want to miss out on its rise rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy. Gains created by a melt up are considered an unreliable indication of the direction the market is ultimately headed, and melt ups often precede melt downs.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/melt-up.asp

The following week will look like this:



Of course it wouldn't actually break out of the chart, this is just me not being bothered to change the whole thing.

So what do you think?

I predict that a year from now the bitcoin price will be in the quadruple digits.  I just want to enshrine this prediction in its own thread.  I hope somebody remembers to dig this up a year from now.  In the meantime I hope to take advantage of the current bitcoin bubble.  My the odds be ever in my favor.

Get ready, there is a great buying opportunity incoming

To calculate the price increase I simply divide the difference in price over 2825 days until 2020.

$1,000             $0.3/day          $2.1/week
$5,000             $1.72/day        $12.04/week
$10,000           $3.5/day          $24.5/week
$25,000           $8.80/day        $61.6/week
$50,000           $17.65/day      $123.55/week
$75,000           $26.5/day        $185.5/week
$100,000         $38.35/day       $268.45/week
$1,000,000       $353.9/day       $2477.3/week

Anyway, it is not likely to work out like this as it will occur in waves but the point is that people have gone batshit crazy because of a $20 increase in one day. We are nowhere near the point where this will happen on a daily basis, not least of all because Gox couldn't handle it.

But anyway, what do you think is a viable amount to go up by per day/week? If your answer is just $3.5/day then you are basically predicting a price of $10k/BTC in 7 years.

Seen a few graphs showing the declining USD.

I am interested in two things:

1. The declining Japanese yen.
2. Can somebody just make a site like this for all currencies?

Look, I used to be a web developer. And I used to get pissed off whenever people brought up the term "web 2.0".

"Hey, I need you to make me a site, please make it look web 2.0"

     

But you know what? The press and general public lap that shit up and it caught on.

Today I came across this: http://rt.com/news/bitcoin-challenge-dollar-currency-121/

He is calling Bitcoin web 3.0.

I think if we collectively started to use this term, even though it's fucking stupid it could catch on.

If people start saying "Hey I need you to make a website, make sure it's web 3.0 compatible" then the battle is over.

To make this happen we need something. A visually recognizable aesthetic that is applied to the term "web 3.0". An example would be some kind of social payments system, or just an art style that can be associated with Bitcoin.

We need something on the same level as those fancy expensive design companies, the type that work for pepsi/coke/mcdonalds, serious brand shit.

It does't need to be expensive. phpBB pulled it off with their cutting edge subsilver theme when it was new and that is also free software.

Remember when everybody (over 50% of all web users) used IE6? As a web developer that sucked.

Somehow Firefox managed to take a huge share of the market in a very quick amount of time.

Similarities between Firefox and Bitcoin:

• Open source
• Popular with tech/geek crowd
• Improvement over existing market leader/s
• Has a message to deliver to the people

It might help to look back at exactly what Firefox did in order to get so popular.

Off the top of my head I can remember a "switch to Firefox" campaign which included fancy images that people used as forum signatures and on their websites. I can remember some webmasters even went so far as to block their site on IE telling users to switch (not recommended).

I don't think this applies to Chrome since they benefited from Google's near unlimited marketing budget.

On this note, the most popular feature Firefox brought to the table was extensions. Yes, Bitcoin is dealing with money and there are security risks, but I think extensions and an extension marketplace would be pretty amazing. Realistically that will probably have to come from a new client rather than the basic one, and there would have to be a team dedicated solely to maintaining this feature.

[We are in a bubble]

Lets look at some charts.

The first chart is going to be a 2 month chart with a 12 hour time period that shows the rise and fall of the '11 crash.

The second chart is going to be the last 2 months with a 12 hour time period.



The million Bitcoin question is: Are we in a speculative bubble?

Now for some possible answers.

We are in a bubble

Look at the fucking graphs. You have got to admit they look very similar.

Dragonfly doji, indecision forming... a storm is brewing.

No, we are not in a bubble

There is nowhere near as much uncertainty about the price this time. It's a lot more stable. Also the user base is much stronger now. More services than ever are using Bitcoin.

The real answer

Who knows.



Extra thoughts

If we are in a bubble and it were to crash right now, and follow the same pattern as the '11 crash. It would stop at around $50.

I'm not saying it's a bubble, but what I am saying is that if it is, this chart is showing us the peak.

This is your last chance.

After this there is no turning back.

You take the blue pill, the story ends. You sell every last Bitcoin and run with your profits.

You take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and we see how deep this rabbit hole goes.

Gather round everybody. Let's show our favorite bear some love.

Just read this: http://pedroshotel.com/bitcoin/

He says “With Bitcoin we will be able to lower our transaction cost. It’s perfectly suited to our type of business where nearly all of our reservations are taken online or over the phone.”

How can you send BTC over the phone?

I am not talking about an app, I am talking about a regular old-fashioned phone call.

Reciting a Bitcoin address over the phone would be ridiculous.

There is an opportunity here for an entrepreneur to get in on this. Make a solution! (possibly binding addresses to phone numbers?)

and cookies

cheese eggs