Legacy and the cryptocurrency markets have rebounded today after the latest CPI print came out as expected with 3.4 - down a little from the previous month with 3.5 during March.

You can see how it currently looks in this bar chart, https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733

If the CPI prints another small decrease during the next report, both legacy and cryptocurrency markets could surge to new all time highs. But to play the devil's advocate, isn't the sudden change of mood to extreme bullishness also inflationary?

Arch, the first and only Bitcoin-native application platform, honors the sovereignty principles Bitcoin was built on while simultaneously extending the world's most secure and liquid blockchain with full programmability and execution. This fusion introduces a new realm of possibilities, and for the first time, developers have the tools to build decentralized applications (dApps) and protocols on the most trusted blockchain in existence. Arch leverages the efficiency of Solana's design principles, combined with Bitcoin's unmatched liquidity and security, to facilitate seamless, turing-complete smart contract execution on Bitcoin's native chain.

https://www.arch.network/

https://arch-network.gitbook.io/arch-documentation

I'm too stupid to understand how Arch technically works although I try, but I'm very bullish that one of these days a team of developers will develop something that will be safe and secure for Bitcoin DeFi to build on. There's simply too much dormant capital in Bitcoin to ignore that possibility.

This cycle will be the Bitcoin Renaissance Cycle.

What Jerome Powell will be saying in his speech will determine if they continue on with the plan to cut rates three times this year, or not.

It will be live in the Schwab Network's YouTube channel, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWhVz1ozr1o

What's are your guesses? Will Powell be Dovish? Or Hawkish?

I believe he'll say that it will still be "higher for longer" and that they will continue be "data dependent". I'm confident that he will also say that there WILL be a "soft landing", WHICH is truly LOW probability.

 - There's a possbility that it's merely manufactured.

The UK is facing a manufactured fake food shortage. The government has been at war with it's farmers for many years, forcing them to close with insane new regulations.

It is not "climate change" related. It is 100% government inflicted if there is any food shortage.

https://twitter.com/fxhedgers/status/1782222163774234880

This sort of situation is inflationary, and if inflation doesn't go down, then something will need to break for it to be forced to go down. That indicates a recession, OR if there's too much money in circulation it's going to be worse. Stagflation.

The consumer price index climbed 3.5% year over year in March, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, faster than February's 3.2% pace. Economists surveyed by FactSet had expected an annual increase of 3.4%. The strong pace was driven by upticks in the cost of housing and gasoline.

Core inflation came in at 3.8% year over year in March, the same level recorded in February but slightly higher than the 3.7% year-over-year gain economists surveyed by FactSet had expected.

The news is likely to delay cuts to interest rates by the Fed. Officials want to see inflation decline toward an annual rate of 2%.

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/inflation-march-cpi-data-report-today

The next Federal Open Market Commitee, or populary known as the FOMC, meeting is going to be on April 30 to May 1. The negative reaction of the market yesterday is merely a trading opportunity used by traders because CPI came in hot again. What everyone should be waiting for is Jerome Powell's speech on April 30/May 1.

I believe he will make the same projection, saying rates are going to stay where they are + three probable rate cuts this year. But we already know there will absolutely be no rate cuts if inflation remains STICKY, and the CPI print yesterday has indicated that it is indeed STICKY.

The year has seen inflation numbers have a slight surge, showing that inflation is indeed "sticky". What will Jerome Powell do? Rate cuts are absolutely out of the question. Will Powell increase interest-rates again to curb inflation? I believe not today, but let's listen to his speech and see what he has in mind for 2024.

I'm confident that he'll say "maintain interest-rates at 5.5% until new data suggests a change", and "most probably it's higher for longer".

If the CPI is higher in a month on month basis, I'm very confident that Jerome Powell will remind everyone again that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates "higher for longer. But it's not going to be because of rising commodity prices like Crude Oil. There's going to be a new narrative, and it's going to be a stupid one. Analysts from the legacy financial system will start blaming Bitcoin's price surge for making the Fed's "higher for longer" longer.

Because the economic situation in some regions of the world continue to worsen, politicians are using newly invented economic terms like "Shrinkflation" to to blame the companies as being too greedy, and to "rationalize" the effects of printing too much money and having too much debt - that the government may never repay.

I believe as Bitcoin HODLers, we should welcome more money-printing because Bitcoin will absorb some of that excess liquidity, and make the price surge. But it should also make us more distrustful of the policy makers because they know there's no "Shrinkflation", only inflation and the negative effects of money-printing.

[SCAM]

SCAM

Probably the best solution to replace the inefficient method of bringing NFTs and Tokens in Bitcoin through Ordinals is an off-chain layer called Rollups, WHICH, will bring Ethereum-style smart contracts and Turing-Completeness. Whether or not Turing-complete programs are needed for Bitcoin, and by the community, is debatable. But because it's going to be built within its own off-chain network then it shouldn't truly be a problem on-chain.

SatoshiVM is a decentralized Bitcoin ZK Rollup Layer2 solution compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) ecosystem, using native BTC as gas. SatoshiVM bridges the EVM ecosystem with Bitcoin, enabling the Bitcoin ecosystem to issue assets and develop applications.

We have improved a method that can verify the correct execution of arbitrary functions on Bitcoin, making it more suitable for Layer2 block validation. Verification System of SatoshiVM is a system that can ensure the accurate execution of Layer2 blocks on Bitcoin. This system does not require any modifications to Bitcoin itself. It is capable of confirming whether a series of Layer2 blocks are executed correctly on Bitcoin without any changes to the existing infrastructure. This allows Bitcoin to serve as a settlement layer for Layer2, enhancing the security of Bitcoin Layer2 transactions.

The system leverages the features of Taproot, which enables the representation of the execution process of a set of complex functions through a single hash. By fully executing the ZK proof process off-chain for a block and verifying the proof on Bitcoin through Taproot, the system ensures the validation of blocks. Additionally, when the block miner on Layer2 sends each block validation transaction, they also submit the hash of the corresponding block data and proof data to Bitcoin. Subsequently, anyone can use relevant hash submitted to Bitcoin to obtain comprehensive data from a specific DA layer for third-party verification of Layer2 blocks.

https://github.com/SatoshiVM/whitepaper/blob/main/README.md

Merely starting the converstion, and to start learning from all of you!

A friend of mine texted me that, Ledger users should stay alert and STOP using your Ledger hardware wallets for connecting to "DAPPs". Many users believe that there's a security issue in Ledger's ConnectKit library. It's possible that DAPPs that use the library could allow an exploit, that steals your coins, injected in their very own protocols.

It's laughable to read those articles showing doctored data from China, then find out mere months later that China's opening from the lockdown has not been enough to make their economy surge again to pre-COVID levels. They're property/real-estate sector, which makes up a LARGE percentage of their GDP, is in the edge of crashing.

For the first time in history, China is considering to give UNSECURED loans to real-estate developers. Plus because of those fiscal stimulus that they have already distributed to help their economy, their budget deficit is in the highest in two decades. They are taking unprecedented risk to save their property sector.

[synthetic risk transfers]

Doesn't this sound and look familiar? They say that, "History may not repeat itself, but it does actually rhyme".

U.S. banks have found a new way to unload risk as they scramble to adapt to tighter regulations and rising interest rates.

JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Bank and others are selling complex debt instruments to private-fund managers as a way to reduce regulatory capital charges on the loans they make, people familiar with the transactions said.

These so-called synthetic risk transfers are expensive for banks but less costly than taking the full capital charges on the underlying assets. They are lucrative for the investors, who can typically get returns of around 15% or more, according to the people familiar with the transactions.

U.S. banks mostly stayed out of the market until this autumn, when they issued a record quantity as a way to ease their mounting regulatory burden.

https://www.livemint.com/companies/big-banks-cook-up-new-way-to-unload-risk-11699375225695.html

Are the Banksters of the Banking Cartel using their old financial magic tricks again? During 2007 - 2008, we have learned that "Synthetic Risk Transfers" through CDOs tranched within other CDOs caused one of the greatest financial collapses in history. I always try to be a bull - a PermaBull. But it's actually very hard not to have bearish periods when you know that the banksters never learn. They probably don't care and believe they will be bailed out again.

I believe not, not while inflation is NOT under control. This time there might be NO bail out.

[Censorship-resistance]

Stop talking about regulatory arbitrage. Censorship-resistance, privacy, and tax evasion are bad ideas. We hate that.”

The conversation began with a huge letdown. I had asked Michael Saylor what could motivate greater institutional investment in Bitcoin—after all, if Bitcoin is going to the moon, we’re gonna need a lot of deep pockets to climb on board.

“People with billions of dollars don’t want to invest in crypto networks that support anarchists,” Saylor explained.

https://www.btctimes.com/insight/michael-saylor-on-bitcoins-next-billion-hodlers

Is this the same person who was telling everyone about appreciating the power of Bitcoin because he experienced having $1,000,000 of his own money locked in Argentina with no way to send it out of the country? Didn't he need censorship-resistance to send that money out?

Plus it's understandable that the largest Bitcoin HODLers should not say anything that might get them and their investment in some inconveniences, but actually saying the censorship-resistance is a "bad idea"?

Remove the "Chad", just "Saylor", he is not a friend to the Bitcoin community. He doesn't support its ethos.

Remember this link if private equity companies start laying off their employees, or start collapsing on their own weight, https://www.ft.com/content/be9e095f-71b8-402f-a404-1172d6df1fb7

Because from the way I understood it, some of them have started to borrow capital AGAINST their portfolio to lend to the companies that are IN their portfolio.

Nested leverage investing.

[Stagflation]

Stagflation will probably be an economic term that many of us plebs will start hearing more and more of from the news as the economic situation in many regions around the world continue to worsen. Stagflation is an economic cycle, or condition, when there's slow growth, low demand, low employment, BUT high "sticky" inflation. That's where many countries are probably going.

Plus if you didn't pay attention in your Economics class in school, it's currently the best time to learn about it because it's probably going to come sooner than expected. So let's discuss.

What Causes Stagflation?
There is no real consensus among economists about the causes of stagflation. They have put forth several arguments to explain how it occurs, even though it was once considered impossible.   

Blame Oil Price Shocks
One theory states that stagflation is caused when a sudden increase in the cost of oil reduces an economy's productive capacity.

The oil crisis of the 1970s is the prime example. In October 1973, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued an embargo against Western countries. This caused the global price of oil to rise dramatically, therefore increasing the costs of goods and contributing to a rise in unemployment.
8

Because transportation costs rose, producing products and getting them to shelves became more expensive and prices rose even as people were laid off from their jobs.

Critics of this theory point out that sudden oil price shocks like those of the 1970s did not occur in connection with any of the simultaneous periods of inflation and recession that have occurred since the embargo.
9

Blame Poor Economic Policies
Another theory is that the confluence of stagnation and inflation is the result of poorly made economic policy. Harsh regulation of markets, goods, and labor in an otherwise inflationary environment are cited as the possible cause of stagflation.

Some point to former President Richard Nixon's policies, which may have led to the recession of 1970—a possible precursor to other periods of stagflation. Nixon put tariffs on imports and froze wages and prices for 90 days in an attempt to prevent prices from rising.
10
 Once the controls were relaxed, the rapid acceleration of prices led to economic chaos.

While appealing, this is an ad-hoc explanation of the stagflation of the 1970s which does not explain later periods that showed a simultaneous rise in prices and unemployment.

Blame the Loss of the Gold Standard
Other theories point to monetary factors that may also play a role in stagflation.

Nixon removed the last indirect vestiges of the gold standard, bringing down the Bretton Woods system that had controlled currency exchange rates.
11

This decision removed commodity backing for the currency and put the U.S. dollar and most other world currencies on a fiat basis, ending most practical constraints on monetary expansion and currency devaluation.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp

There are 81% of Bitcoin owners who, probably because of the lack of Bitcoin Education or laziness, say that they'll move their coins to their bank's "crypto storage" if it was available. It will not be a good future, if true.



Let's pretend that pie chart also represents the rest of the world, and that a large portion of the supply has actually been "deposited" under the control of centralized entities. How much of the total supply must be under the control of a Cabal before we could consider that Bitcoin has failed?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech about what the Cabal behind the Federal Reserve will do for the next few months until the next Federal Reserve meeting.

It will be live in this YouTube link,

https://www.youtube.com/live/Y-1SowXR8zY?si=PZo7srAR42NgY4zX

Many expect that because inflation is already decelerating, Powell might pause rate hikes again and give the stock market some time to "breathe".

A "technical recession" is formally announced when a country's GDP falls for two consecutive quarters. The Dutch GDP fell by -0.4% during the first quarter, followed by another fall of 0.3%, bringing it into a technical recession by the official defintion.

But it's not techncially a recession. It's worse, it's actually Stagflation because inflation is also high sitting at 6.0%. They probably don't want the general public to know what caused the Stagflation and keep blaming it on the "supply side" of things.

https://think.ing.com/snaps/the-netherlands-in-technical-recession/

Another country, Hungary, has also announced to be going through the longest "technical recession".

https://think.ing.com/snaps/longest-technical-recession-on-record-in-hungary/

But like the situation in the Netherlands, Hungary's inflation is very high at 20%. That's true Stagflation - a time when the monetary and economic systems are out of control.

[Meet BlackRock, the company that owns the world and the “fourth branch of government]

Sorry if the topic title is sort of "Gloom and Doom", but it's a genuine question. I came across this write up about BlackRock when I was randomly browsing the internet on topics about the history of different VCs and asset managers,

Meet BlackRock, the company that owns the world and the “fourth branch of government” with $9 trillion in assets under management

BlackRock made headlines last month after the company spent $6 billion to buy single-family homes and turn them into rental properties, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. In most cases, BlackRock even paid more money above the sellers’ asking price, killing the dream of homeownership for the middle class.

In just 33 years, BlackRock has grown from nothing to becoming the world’s largest and most trusted asset manager and the company that owns the world. The firm has also become an increasingly influential Wall Street player in Washington, DC, and a revolving door between finance and politics. Today, at least three of BlackRock’s leaders now hold prominent roles in President Joe Biden’s cabinet.

Given the company’s habit of forming shadow cabinets ahead of presidential transitions and its involvement in the new Federal reserve programs, Bloomberg went as far as calling BlackRock our “fourth branch of government.”

https://techstartups.com/2021/08/10/meet-blackrock-company-owns-world-fourth-branch-government-9-trillion-assets-management/

Here's a research paper opening a debate if BlackRock, and other large asset managers, are "fourth branch" OR actually "first branch" of government, https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Thomas_Ertl4/publication/372824190_BlackRock_Co_Fourth_or_First_Branch_of_Government/links/64c96a2ab7d5e40f331ad0f2/BlackRock-Co-Fourth-or-First-Branch-of-Government.pdf


OK, now that we have the same understanding of what BlackRock actually is and what they are capable of, this is what they filed in their registration statement for their ETF,

In the event of a hard fork of the Bitcoin network, the Sponsor will, as permitted by the terms of the Trust Agreement, use its sole discretion to determine, in good faith, which peer-to-peer network, among a group of incompatible forks of the Bitcoin network, is generally accepted as the Bitcoin network and should therefore be considered the appropriate network for the Trust’s purposes.

The Sponsor will base its determination on whatever factors it deems relevant, including but not limited to, the Sponsor’s beliefs regarding expectations of the core developers of bitcoin, users, services, businesses, miners and other constituencies, as well as the actual continued acceptance of, mining power on, and community engagement with, the Bitcoin network, or whatever other factors it deems relevant.

There is no guarantee that the Sponsor will choose the digital asset that is ultimately the most valuable fork, and the Sponsor’s decision may adversely affect the value of the Shares as a result. The Sponsor may also disagree with Shareholders, the Bitcoin Custodian, other service providers, the Index Administrator, cryptocurrency exchanges, or other market participants on what is generally accepted as bitcoin and should therefore be considered “bitcoin” for the Trust’s purposes, which may also adversely affect the value of the Shares as a result.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1980994/000143774923017574/bit20230608_s1.htm

Is it actually possible that BlackRock could co-opt Bitcoin by, hiring their own developers - probably even hire some of the Core Developers, incentivize a hash war, convince/buy into the economic majority to cooperate, start a fork, and declare their fork as Bitcoin?

My advice - BE CAREFUL

Investment and trading books, articles and videos are made by people who might not actually be winning traders. They make their money by writing "investment materials" and sell it to us, the plebs.

Plus "as traders", most of you will lose money and leave. Some of you might return and lose more money. Some might have learned their lesson the hard way and just HODL Bitcoin. The few who actually put in the most time, effort and who are well-capitalized might make it.