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1  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin is "dying". on: May 18, 2023, 12:30:05 PM
Hello everyone. I don't want to sound pessimistic, but it looks like bitcoins ideas are dying.

I spend a week on this forum talking with people about Bitcoin and asking their opinions in threads. And I came to the conclusion that the whole idea of Bitcoin is being killed in front of our eyes.

The problem is that most of the people in crypto see Bitcoin as an asset like a stock to invest in and then sell later. No one even thinking about the future of Bitcoin as means of currency. Bitcoin was created NOT as an asset, we use it as one, it was created to solve a banking problem and create money of freedom that can't be faked and printed. And somehow people are literally forgotten about this whole point of Bitcoin.

I created a thread asking people what they think bitcoin will stabilize enough to become a currency for people to use and literally everyone said to me that it's an asset and it will never stabilize. And, don't get me wrong, sounds logical and I agree with that.
But if we treat Bitcoin like this, why are we waiting for the "mass adoption" and want businesses to accept Bitcoin that is not stable in any means to use it as a currency?

Another big problem is that everything in crypto spaces becomes centralized. Recently I tried to sell my crypto without KYC and I didn't find any good platforms to do it! Just think about it...nowadays you need to pass KYC to sell crypto without high fees. That's crazy.

Almost all platforms and even some wallets require your ID which is the opposite of anonymity. And because of that there are fewer and fewer platforms that offer you services without KYC and therefore because there are not many of them here they hike up their fees to the sky.

 Add to that the fact that even wallets are not safe. Ledger literally offered people to save their seed phrase in the cloud. The mere fact that they CAN take your seed phrase and upload it somewhere is a reason to never use ledger anymore.

So considering all this, it looks like crypto right now is moving to centralization and control over our funds. Bitcoin is just an asset to people and I don't see how everyone can use it as a currency.
That's why I think that bitcoin Ideas are dying.
2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin IS an asset. Do you think it's bad? on: May 15, 2023, 07:03:34 AM
Hello everyone.

Lately, I've been talking with a lot of people on this forum and before that, I really thought that most people here treat Bitcoin as a technology that gives us freedom and represents ideas of satoshi, but I realized that everyone I talked to treat it just like an asset to invest in.

I don't want to say that it's bad, it's just surprising me. I created a thread where I asked if people think that Bitcoin will become stable enough to become a new currency cos I thought it was the whole idea, but everyone was telling me that it will always fluctuate and it's just a method to earn money.

What do you guys think about that? Do you think it's okay that we as a community treat Bitcoin as an asset and not as a technology that should be used to give people freedom from the banks?

Personally, I think that Bitcoin is a great asset, but it's strange to think that crypto just becomes a new stock market where people follow hype and money, and not technology and progress.
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / When Bitcoin will become stable currency? on: May 10, 2023, 02:19:02 AM
I was thinking about Bitcoin as a currency a lot lately and I have some doubts about how currently we see its future.

The problem is, in order for Bitcoin to become a currency everyone will use, it should be stable. I know that you might say that people will still use it because it's not about stability, it's about freedom and technology. I agree with that, but Bitcoin needs to be stable in order for people to treat it like money, and not like an asset.

Just look at what people are saying right now, experts say that people shouldn't hold USD because inflation is just 5% a year, but imagine if you have bitcoin that can go down like 5% a day because some whales sold it. It will be problematic for people to use it on a daily basis because of that.

I know that people say that when Bitcoin will be adopted, it should become stable because there is a limited amount of it, but I don't see how it's gonna happen. From what I see people treat bitcoin as an asset to invest and hold and I can't imagine that will change in the future.

Why do you guys think Bitcoin will really become the "money of the future" and people will actually use it like one?
From what I see, I think it's possible that people in the future will still trade bitcoin or try to buy as much of it as possible to manipulate the market.
4  Economy / Exchanges / Your thoughts on crypto exhcnages. on: May 01, 2023, 07:29:28 AM
After I saw tread93's post on this forum about Binance, I started thinking about the role of crypto exchanges in adoption.

In my opinion, exchanges are great for people who want to try buying crypto and don't want to dig into a ditails. I think it helps more people to "experience" Bitcoin and I think most of them are then more to wallets when they realize how crypto actually works.

My second take is that exchanges are representing crypto and bitcoin in some ways. They try to get licenses in countries, deal with the government, and, in general, are the face of crypto for some people. It can be bad considering that exchanges could go bankrupt like FTX, but in general, I think exchanges speed up adoption.

I think the best way is to use the exchange to buy crypto or like a P2P platform, but hold all crypto on the wallet, preferably a cold one.

But what do you think about it?
I know that many people hate centralized platforms so I want to hear your thoughts.
5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / What will you do with bitcoin? on: April 25, 2023, 04:51:32 AM
Hello guys!
Today I was thinking about Bitcoin and where it will finally go up. And I came to the conclusion that I don't really understand what is the right thing to do with Bitcoin after it will "go to the moon".

So I wanted to ask you all, what are you planing to do with bitcoin when it will go to 70k, 80k etc. Are you planing to sell it or you will keep holding it?
If you will sell it, at what price are you planning to do it?
6  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Important update on Bitcoin. Why is it falling? Will it go lower? on: April 23, 2023, 12:36:10 AM
Hello guys!

Could of days ago I wrote a post while Bitcoin was going up that it's a bad time to buy it and it will go down because of the macroeconomic factors. And now, could of days after, bitcoin is really falling.
So I want to explain why and remind you of what you can expect next.

So while bitcoin was pumping, some people were hesitating if they should buy bitcoin right now, but for me, it was pretty obvious that crypto winter is NOT over. It's not that I'm really smart of something, I just try to ignore all this hype that comes from Bitcoin going up 1-2k. I just follow the same signals for the last half a year.

So first of all, I want to recommend staying skeptical about people saying that bitcoin will keep pumping without any visible reasons. And also try to ignore FOMO. You won't miss anything and you still have a lot of time to buy bitcoin at a good price.

So that being said, I want to share my thoughts on what to expect from Bitcoin next.
My predictions have not changed, I still think that Bitcoin will fall or stagnate for the next half a year. It's all connected to the economic crises that are still happening in the US.
I still think that the best signals to watch are FED actions and interest rates. When FED will start cutting them, I think it would be a good time to buy crypto.

There are some speculations that interest rates will soon go down, but I don't really see a strong reason for that. We still see that core inflation is high so FED still needs to push more to lower it. So we probably see another 0.25% raise at the next FED meeting. And after that, there is a possibility that they will start cutting them in Q4 of 2023.
But I think it's pretty early to assume that, so lest just keep watching inflation reports.

I wish everyone a nice week. Stay safe.
7  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin is going down. on: April 20, 2023, 02:38:19 AM
Hello everyone.
As you can see, bitcoin is going down and I believe that it will keep falling.
As I explained in my last posts, this Bitcoin rise wasn't sustainable. There are literally no reasons for Bitcoin to go up now.

So I want to remain you guys again that right now is not the time to buy bitcoin.
Inflation is still high, interest rates are still getting higher, FED is not planning to stop any time soon, and the economy is suffering. All these reasons won't let Bitcoin rise from the ashes YET. But I believe we will see the end of it this year, probably in Q4.

So I recommend holding on to your cash/stablecoins right now and waiting for the signals to buy Bitcoin.
And as always, the best signals to look for: FED start cutting rates. When this will happen, it will mean that economy will start recovering soon so it's a great time to buy anything you want before crypto and the stock market will go up.

Have a nice day and take care.
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / The fall of crypto influencers. on: April 19, 2023, 02:37:34 AM
I made a post about crypto influencers not that long ago talking about how people still trust them despite all the cringe and stupid stuff they post.
In the the last post, after reading your comments, I came to conclusion that most of the people who follow crypto influencers are:
1) Normies (or lazy people who don't want to do research and want to follow trend)
2) Bots
3) Bitcoin uneducated people

I think the third category is the most interesting one because I don't know how long it will exist considering what is happening with Bitcoin right now.
We can see that there are more and more programs about Bitcoin awareness and crypto education. More people are getting interested in what bitcoin/crypto actually is. And one of the signs of Bitcoin adoption is the promotion of Bitcoin education.

I think in the next few years, influencers can lose their "influence" over uneducated people because they're gonna be fewer and fewer of these people on the internet. And I don't think that bots and normies are sustainable audiences so I think influencers will see a hard time soon.

And overall, bitcoin education will decrease people's need for influencers simply because they will already have all the knowledge needed and all these Twitter posts about "PUMP IS COMING" will sound pretty stupid. And you shouldn't be the most educated person to see it. And it's pretty obvious that all these Twitter people post specifically for people who don't have a good knowledge about crypto because most of these posts are just basics and hype.

So what do you think?
Will we finally see the fall of influencers or there still will be enough stupid people to follow their advice?
9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / It's NOT a good time to invest in BTC. on: April 17, 2023, 07:27:46 AM
Hello bros, just want to make a new update on the bitcoin.
I started to see people asking if it was a good time to buy Bitcoin or not. I think it's a pretty lazy question cos everyone should do their own research, but if there people are truly wondering about it, I will try to give a short answer to it.

There were a couple of weeks after my last post about the best time to buy Bitcoin and my opinion STILL didn't change.
Yes, we can see that bitcoin is going up, we see that inflation is going down little by little and other signals. But I will keep advocating that we still didn't get rid of the MAIN reason economy is suffering and Bitcoin is not 60k.

Interest rates are still high and FED just keeps rising it. And that's where the real problem is. You should understand that some signals might be good and show that economy is recovering, but while inflation is still higher than needed, FED will keep rising or then holding interest rates. It means that it's NOT over and we might see another huge Bitcoin dump in a near future. It's obvious that some sectors of the economy showing some good results but only because of the LAG EFFECT of the interest rates.

I still think that we won't see real gains until inflation will go down enough and fed will start cutting interest rates. I said it before and I will say it again: I think the best time to buy bitcoin will be after interest rates will go down. It's easily the best signal to buy for me. And it's also the least risky one.

So be careful. If you truly don't know if you should buy or not, do some research and always look at the bigger picture and not some small local signals.
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin has a bad reputation (we should fix it) on: April 09, 2023, 12:50:08 AM
Hello everyone!
I've been thinking a lot about Bitcoin adoption lately and I think that adoption is still pretty slow partly because of the Bitcoin reputation. Despite it being a progressive technology of the future, a lot of people still think that it's a joke.

So there is different opinion among people about Bitcoin. Some people consider Bitcoin as "criminal money" because it's often used on the dark web and helps criminals to get away with selling drugs and stuff.
There are also people who think that Bitcoin is a bubble that will explode and lose its value, so they don't trust it. It's probably because these people don't know how Bitcoin and blockchain work.
And there is a third group of people who think that Bitcoin is used just for gambling so they don't want to buy it.

I think it would be good if we can convince these people that they are wrong. I know that an obvious way to do it would be an education, which will help A LOT. But as for now, do you think there are other ways to change these people's opinions?
Like would it be good if we could create a system that somehow will make the life of criminals who use Bitcoin harder?
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Ultimate (simple) guide on when to buy Bitcoin. on: April 05, 2023, 06:51:46 AM
Hello everyone!

Recently I see a lot of questions being asked on this forum like "Is it the best time to buy Bitcoin??", "should I buy Bitcoin right now?" etc.
So I thought that it would be a great time to give a simple answer to these questions.

I already have topics when I talk about when to buy bitcoin, but here I want to simplify it for everyone who still wondering about the timing.

So, first of all, bitcoin is a GREAT technology and we all agree that it WILL go up and will cost much more in the future. That's why any time is actually a good time to buy Bitcoin. But if you want to lower the risks of investing in the wrong time, consider DCA. I still believe that DCA is the best method to invest money in Bitcoin.
So the simple answer: if you don't want to risks and you belive in Bitcoin tech, then go and start DCAing right now.

But for those who want to time Bitcoin, then right now is probably NOT the best time to buy BTC. Many people who say that Bitcoin has got up to 29k so it will keep going down just because, are probably wrong, cos they just ignore all macroeconomy statistics.
I said it the last time and I will say it again: The economy is STILL in a bad place. We should not forget that high-interest rates are destroying an economy to lower inflation. So we are not done and it's not over yet.

So when to buy Bitcoin then?
Personally, I still think that we should follow what FED is going right now because they decide what to do with interest rates. I think the best time to start buying Bitcoin will be the moment FED will start lowering interest rates. After that (now immediately) economy will start getting better and, obviously, bitcoin will go up too.
And I also think that when that will happen, bitcoin will be much lower than right now. Because statistically speaking, FED won't start lowering interest rates until something will go completely wrong and something big will collapse. Only that will be a good signal for them that it's time to stop.

So, to recap everything I said here: if you just don't care about timing and want to buy Bitcoin, then start buying it right now (but only by DCA), and if you care about timing and want to take a risk to get bigger gains, then wait for the FED to start lowering rates and for the economy to become better.
12  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin usage in crime activity. on: April 02, 2023, 01:28:10 AM
Hello crypto bros.
Today I want to discuss a pretty big problem that bitcoin adoption is facing.
Bitcoin is great in means of anonymous transactions and getting away from the banks and government control, but the problem is, it's the exact problem why criminals are using it. And it's a pretty big one. I'm not saying that criminals use bitcoin more than fiat, but we all can see that illegal services are widely accepting bitcoin.

The problem here is that the system should have some way to fight these criminals because we don't want bitcoin to be associated with drugs and sex trafficking,  but the problem is, by solving these problems we should get rid of anonymity which is a pillar for the bitcoin technology, so it can't be done. And this problem might be a big obstacle in mass bitcoin adoption and regulations that are coming.

So I want to hear your opinion: how to make bitcoin technology "safer" so we could fight a crime committed with crypto and help with bitcoin adoption without taking away the main features of bitcoin like decentralization and anonymity?
13  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin can't become world currency (at least now). on: March 26, 2023, 01:45:50 AM
Hello crypto bros!

Personally, I think that bitcoin won't become a new world currency like USD or EURO, but I think it would be widely accepted and used. But looking at some projects like El Salvador I just keep wondering, are there gonna be countries that will try making bitcoin their official currency and make all transactions using it?
Do you think there gonna be any consequences for that?

Why I think it's highly unlikely:
I think one of the problems is that it will be more expensive for people to use bitcoin than fiat. We can also say that it will create a huge load on the bitcoin network to make all these transactions so it will probably be even more expensive and slower because of that. Also worth mentioning that bitcoin is still pretty volatile and I don't see it becoming more stable in the future. And the whole system will depend on the miners and if there gonna be any problem with them, then the system will suffer. And another thing is that when people will see how volatile bitcoin is, they will try to exchange it to more stable asset that will dump the price of BTC as well.

So as a result, I think that bitcoin will probably stay as an asset and anonymous money. And it's not a bad thing, we need this kind of technology to exist.
14  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Do you feel bad while paying with BTC? on: March 24, 2023, 04:36:42 AM
Hello everyone!
Recently I was thinking about BTC payments and I believe that the system is moving towards bitcoin adoption and paying with bitcoin. And it's great!

But the problem for me is that anytime I think about paying with BTC I feel somehow uncomfortable. I always remember the guy who spent 30+ bitcoins on pizza and now these bitcoins are worth a fortune. Like I don't want to be this guy and pay with an asset that WILL go up in price. It feels like you paying more for the product from a future perspective.

What are your thoughts about this? Personally, I usually try to buy with stablecoins if I have some, it just feels more natural for me. I don't want to touch my BTC while the market is still bad.
15  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin will pump soon? Lower interest rates in june. on: March 22, 2023, 04:09:17 PM
Hello crypto bros, it's me again with an update on my "inflation" and "the best time to buy bitcoin" topics.

I already talked about how we all should wait for the FED to start cutting interest rates cos it will be a great signal that bitcoin and stock markets WILL go up. (because the economy will get better)

So today I want to talk about a possible date when it could actually start happening. If you will check the CME website you will see that the market expectation is that FED will start cutting interest rates in June. And it's a very important thing for the economy and crypto.

First of all, it would be a big signal for people to invest in crypto. Secondly, it will mean that economy will start recovering which will be huge for all markets including crypto.

But you all should know that things won't happen in one day or month. Bitcoin will pump, but then it will start growing slowly. The economy needs some time to recover. But it will already be a starting point for us to buy bitcoin.

So let's hope that we will see FED cutting interest rates in June. Good luck to everyone BTC Wink
16  Economy / Economics / The problem with Credit Suisse and banking sector. on: March 16, 2023, 03:23:58 AM
I think you all noticed that the stock market went down again and this time it's because of Credit Suisse.
It is still one of the biggest banks in Europe so the European banking sector has some problems too.

Their bonds, CDS, everything is going down and it's bad news not just for people from Europe but for everyone cos this is international.

Credit Suisse had some problems in previous years but this time it's wild. They delayed their annual report and announced that they have weaknesses in internal control which is awful for the bank. And the largest shareholders started saying that they won't give any money to Credit Suisse. People are withdrawing from this bank for the last 3 months but now it's got even worse.

Because risk is getting higher, people move away from banks to invest in more stable assets. The US is helping banks to bail out depositors but banks still have to keep credit flowing which is pretty hard considering the loss of trust in this sector.

I think the best decision right now is to wait for what will happen next because it's pretty hard to predict where the market will move next.
17  Economy / Economics / Bank Bailouts and Stock Market. on: March 13, 2023, 10:33:13 PM
Hello everyone.
I think some people interpret this whole situation a little bit wrong so I wanted to share my opinion on this topic.

I think the banking contagion is now over. The government and federal reserves backstopping the banks with the protection of assets above 250k. So we won't see more bank runs because people know that their money is protected now so banks are safe.

Some people and media also say that the system broke and that means that federal reserves won't rise interest rates at the next meeting. And I think it's completely wrong. I think they will just rise rates for another 0.25% as a response to the SVB situation. The inflation is still pretty high and FED will keep fighting it, they can't afford to stop right now.

So I think we will still see a lot more bankruptcies, there will be more layoffs and the stock market will keep suffering from that. This also means that bitcoin will probably find a new bottom.
18  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin price. Inflation persists. on: March 12, 2023, 05:58:12 AM
Hello crypto bros.
I made a post couple of days ago talking about the best time to invest in bitcoin and I mention that inflation still looks bad and we shouldn't expect the economy AND bitcoin price to get better anytime soon.

Today I want to make an update on the inflation and job reports.
The economy added 311k jobs which are way higher than expected. And it's bad for inflation cos we don't see softening in the labor market.

This is very important because it's another indicator that inflation is still pretty high and the next time when FED will be considering how high they should rise rates, they will be analyzing this report. It means that probably FED made a mistake and started FED pivot pretty early.

What does it mean for bitcoin?
I still stand by my words that until inflation won't get better -> FED will keep rising rates -> which will damage the economy and stock market -> bitcoin will suffer too.

So I still think that bitcoin will stay below 22k for a pretty long time and the signal that it will change will be much lower inflation and lowering of the interest rates.

Just wanted to give you this quick update, stay safe bros.
19  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin will (probably) go lower. on: March 10, 2023, 07:34:10 AM
Hello everyone! Today bitcoin went below 20k and it will probably go even lower I share my opinion on why it will happen.

Not too long ago I wrote a post about the best time to invest in bitcoin/crypto and this moment still didn't come.
I was saying this before and I will say it again: bitcoin will go down and it MIGHT even go lower than 15k.

Disclaimer: I'm not trying to be bearish or say that bitcoin is bad and you shouldn't buy it. I still think that DCA is the best tactic to choose in any circumstance. So keep buying bitcoin, it is the future of money and great technology.

But my opinion is that right now it's not the best time to buy bitcoin and it will go lower because of some reasons. The main reasons for me are that the inflation is still too high, the economy is suffering and rates are still high. There is also a statistical fact that all previous times when FED pivots happened, the economy dipped even lower and found a new bottom. We still didn't see this fallout so it's safe to assume that it's coming.
Latest statistics also showed that inflation is higher than expected and FED could start hiking rates once again.

My advice will be to wait until FED will start lowering rates which will mean that the economy will start recovering and money will flow into crypto and bitcoin.

Anyway, keep safe and don't panic, we will get through it. Grin
20  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Thoughts on Doge coin. on: March 07, 2023, 08:46:50 AM
I have strange relationships with doge coins.

I like investing in altcoins and I believe that there are a lot of good projects that bitcoin maxis are ignoring. And you definitely can't say that altcoins are useless.

But if you think about meme coins, they are mostly useless and pump only because of the hype. So it's a dangerous asset to invest in, that's why I don't like meme coins.

But two years ago I decided that I want to try buying some doge hoping that it will fly up and I was wrong and lost some money. From that time, I decided for myself that these coins are not worth investing in. And after two years I still think that it's better to invest in coins that have some kind of utility/project.

But I still see that there is a huge community of people who still buy doge and wait for it to go "to the moon" despite it still being a coin that only Elon can pump.

So why do you think people still want to risk their money buying meme coins instead of buying bitcoin or some good altcoin? I think that even if doge will start pumping, it won't go x10 because its market cap is too high.
Do you still buy doge or other meme coins?
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