Sine (red) with zero crossings at the halvings, superimposed on a rolling power regression (yellow)  Pretty nice, taking into account phase jitter There's gold in them thar hills signal under all the noise |
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Chart 1 shows the back-test of the Redneck Fourier indicator for cycle tops.  The log of bitcoin's daily closing price appears in blue, indexed by block height on the horizontal axis. Major grids mark the halvings, which occur every 210,000 blocks. Minor grids on quarter cycle, or about one year. Following the Redneck Fourier indicator, negative zero crossings indicate tops in bitcoin's halving price cycle. The idea in this chart is, wait for the negative zero crossing then sell or go short. But the RF can also be used to forecast. Choose a rate of increase and draw a straight line, like this  The Redneck shows about when and where the market top is likely to occur, under conditions where bitcoin's price appreciates on that slope. Mark that point where the yellow and blue lines intersect on the graph. Repeat the exercise for different slopes and join the points in a line. Redneck thinks the price is going to bounce off that ceiling.  I performed a back-test of the prognostication function at block 630,000, plugging bitcoin's price history up to that point (dark blue) into the Redneck. The black line shows the Redneck's predicted ceiling. Pale blue shows what actually happened.  I ran the test again at block 650,000  |
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 Horizontal axis: block height. Red in positive territory: bull market. Zero crossings (marked green and yellow) indicate begin and end of bull. wordpress.com/post/hardworkandlowpay.wordpress.com/852 |
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The next halving (block 840,000) will happen on April 23, 2024. You read it here first.
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Bull market when green is above red.  Death crosses where green drops below red indicate major tops. Block height on the horizontal axis. |
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If anybody's bored and wants something to play with, here's a bash script to estimate the number of days until the next halving #!/bin/bash
date --iso-8601
bid=$(curl -s "https://www.bitstamp.net/api/ticker/" | jq -r ".bid")
ask=$(curl -s "https://www.bitstamp.net/api/ticker/" | jq -r ".ask")
#p0 is midmarket price to 2 decimals
P0=$(bc -l <<< "scale=2; ($bid+$ask)/2")
echo "mid-market BTCUSD: "$P0
#height=$(curl -s "https://blockchain.info/latestblock" | jq -r ".height")
height=$(wget -q -O - "https://blockchain.info/latestblock" | jq -r ".height")
time=$(wget -q -O - "https://blockchain.info/latestblock" | jq -r ".time")
#May 11, 2020 19:23 halving time 1589225023
#seconds since last halving (sslh) = $time-1589225023
sslh=$(($time-1589225023))
#days since last halving (dsince) = seconds/86400
dsince=$(bc -l <<< "scale=6; $sslh/86400")
#projected days of 2020-2024 halving (dproj) = (time-1589225023)/((height/210000-3)*86400)
dproj=$(bc -l <<< "scale=6; $dsince/(($height/210000)-3)")
echo "projected duration of the current halving:"
echo $dproj
#rounding procedure
#extract decimals, double, add 1
num=$(bc -l <<< "scale=6; 2*($dproj-${dproj%.*})+1")
#truncate, subtract 1, divide by 2
num=$(bc -l <<< "scale=6; (${num%.*}-1)/2")
#add to original variable
dproj=$(bc -l <<< "scale=6; $dproj+$num")
#truncate
dproj=${dproj%.*}
echo $dproj "days"
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 That green trace is the bitcoin usd moving geometric mean over 105,000 blocks, one half cycle. chart2 below better illustrates the sinusoidal nature of bitcoin's price cycle as its moving geomean swings between peak (pale blue) and trough (red).  The horizontal axis units are block height divided by 140, so the halvings occur at multiples of 1500. As you can see, the geomean had a zero crossing at 3000 (the second halving). The price action recently is getting compressed in time. The geometric mean had a zero crossing early, before the third halving. And the latest geomean peak appears to have come prematurely  . Maybe people are trying to front-run the halvings. |
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 Horizontal axis, block height divided by 140. Red, moving geometric mean over 210,000 blocks (one halving). Green, moving geometric mean over 105,000 blocks (half halving). Yellow, their ratio (times 100 to bring it into the frame). Sell signal when the rising half cycle ratio crosses 2; I guess crossing 2 in the other direction indicates buy. Which we are approaching now. |
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Answered you on the other forum where we hang out.
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 Take the 105,000 block moving geometric mean, multiply it by the blue sinusoid which has a period of 210,000 blocks (one halving). You get the red trace. Vertical lines mark halvings. |
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i think 'hour' messed you up...it looks like two but is in fact only one syllable
It's a dipthong. Conventionally defined as a single syllable, but for me those compound vowel sounds always occupy a phonetic gray area. |
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Fucking great shit, dudes!!!  It seems i have found a remedy against that Chronic Fatigue Pain-In-The-Ass. Nattokinase, alternating with Lumbrokinase every other day, combined with Red Ginseng. I'm on this for a good week now. Today i was roofing a house with friends, 8 hours of hard work in glaring sunlight, and i feel really tired, but not exhausted. This would have sent me to bed after one or two hours,leaving me feeling exhausted and brainfoggy for a few more days. But today there's no brainfog, no muscle twitching/pains, no fatigue, no heart palpitations, no Post Excertional Malaise at all! I*m feeling fucking great, i finally shaked off that fucking curse that got me for the last 11 years! When i got a hint that Red Ginseng, combined with the two other enzymes, removed blood clotting and Small Fiber Neuropathy in Long Covid patients, i thought: "Hey, this might work with my postviral fatigue syndrome...", and it did. When i watched the Bitcoin charts at the end of the day, it turned out to be the cream topping of all Now there are only the memory problems left, and that high sensibility to noise and light. I'm sure there's a way i can get rid of that too  This is awesome! My wife has been hit with covid a second time and being a CFS sufferer it's really knocked the shit out of her. You able to PM me or post here the amounts of each you've been taking? If it can help her out I'm more than willing to try Sure, always happy to help  day1: 1-2x Nattokinase 100mg caps (2.000 FU's - which is the concentration of the active ingredient) 1-2x Red Ginseng caps 600mg (120mg of Ginsenoside) day 2: 1-2x Lumbrokinase 20mg caps 1-2x Red Ginseng caps 600mg (&repeat) On very active days i stick to the double dose for now, each one in the morning and early afternoon. Single dose seemed to do the trick after no more than a week. Avoid Ginseng when taking blood thinners, since it can enhance problems with bleeding and wound healing. No (other) negative effects recorded. Another benefit i got with the Ginseng-Kinase's mix is quite noticeable easing of breathing. It seems to do as some studies reflect, improving the blood flow/supply in the finest of vessels, which are also supplying nerve endings, the main problem with Fibromyalgia (muscle pains from light to normal activity). Lumbrokinase is a bit more pricey (relatively. So it's still affordable), you should get the Red Ginseng and NK capsules pretty cheap. Just watch customer's feedback about supplements, there is a broad spectrum of quality in the supplement market. For completeness: I also had a Vitamin-B mix with RDA's of B1,B2,B3 and B6 around 300-400% and B12 no more than 120% RDA (i don't tolerate B12 too well), which had positive kognitive effects, and an additional dose of Thiamine (Vit. B1) 400-500mg after waking up. I also take 25mg of zinc (just before sleep) for many years, which helps with mucosa recovery, but this is more targeted at my fructose-malabsorption problems, as well as a simultaneous dose of Bromelain (500mg). That's all. Dietary Vitamin B and Zinc enhancement is being advised at ages of 40+, when cell activity is beginning to slowly decrease over the years. I wish you and your wife the best in combating that nasty fatigue! Thanks for posting this. |
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Any CBDC implemented by the Fed must be open, permissionless, and private. This means that any digital dollar must be accessible to all, transact on a blockchain that is transparent to all, and maintain the privacy elements of cash. Sounds familiar but I just can't put my finger on it. https://twitter.com/RepTomEmmer/status/1481283945492852743The coin can't be 'private' and have a transparent blockchain at the same time. This guy's pretty confused. |
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The road to $80k  |
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In September I posted charts suggesting bitcoin's price might languish until at least Q2 2023, grinding along at about $40k support.  The red curve on the big chart shows bitcoin's centered 100 week geometric mean. A transform revealed an apparent sine pattern in the geomean, seen in the upper corner chart. The yellow sine wave is my best fit. The lower corner chart converts back into price domain and extrapolates the sine wave. Indication: we might have a couple of years of bearish action, but not a dire crypto winter. So far, so good. |
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The bottoms of that last chart come off as somewhat conservative, but I suppose that bottoms do tend to be conservative anyhow... but seeing so much sub $100k bottom projection in 2022 and into 2023 causes me less enthusiasm than seeing tops (even though I have been growing more and more fond of bottom analysis in recent years). I will note that I can still appreciate the overall chart as still being quite bullish if we would thereafter consider that the projection of the yellow line would likely have some flat in 2023 and then perhaps start to slope UPpity in later 2023..and so at some point our bottom projection would thereafter get permanently above $100k... maybe around late 2024? - early 2025-ish? Pushing time series extrapolations out that far is pretty speculative. This stuff is a moving target. Like the way I kind of smushed the lumps under the previous cycles so that the last lump would fit. This is the transform I used for the cyclical superposition. Fitting all the bumps under bitcoin's price means they all can't be perfect.  |
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Take a quadratic regression of time as a function of bitcoin’s daily closing price since July 7, 2010 (Mt Gox and Bitstamp concatenated):  Time is not a function of the price in the mathematical sense of "function", since there are multiple possible values of time for a given price (whenever the same price occurred at two or more different times). I merited you for the effort anyway, but I think you can do better. Okay, bro. |
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Take a quadratic regression of time as a function of bitcoin’s daily closing price since July 7, 2010 (Mt Gox and Bitstamp concatenated): Solve the quadratic and invert the axes, putting yourself back in the time domain:  Divide by 2.5; call this bitcoin’s historic price floor:  Manipulate the price floor to fit the halving cycles by superposing a cyclical function on the monotonic trend:  The yellow trace extrapolates an ad hoc curve-fitting of the halving cycles. |
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