About three days and no posts. This is about as quiet as I've seen this thread.
I just got a phone call. Things are about to get very not quiet. In a good way. Start F5ing. grnbrg. Dear Diary, It's day 6. Everyone's F5 key has been broken for 2 days now. Supplies are running low and the nerd stink in the room is getting overwhelming. Fortunately, grnbrg and LR's re-enactment of "Christopher Walken - Puss In Boots - Happy Cat" was so flawless it inspired us not to resort to cannibalism. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEjKmsMkPKQI'm certain it will all be over "soon"™.     |
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How come you get insider information, but the rest of us don't?
Lab_Rat wanted someone to be able to disseminate information and answer questions if he is too busy to do so. Based on the relationship built over on the BFL forums last year, he asked me if I wanted to be that contact. He is trusting me to answer the questions I can based on the public information that is available and to not release any information that I might get that is not yet public. I probably should have kept my mouth shut last Thursday, but a release sounded imminent, and I wanted to wake things up a bit. Other than being able to identify which users own which bond addresses, based on the trading I have overseen, I don't think I've had access to any information that hasn't become public in fairly short order, though. grnbrg. Yeah, well, this is business not teen idol. how about we just all get the information at once. Nothing personal grnbrg, I like you. but this is starting to feel like a repetitive game with other peoples money. I don't like to be teased when it comes to money. Since we gone off the path of the original agreement of what would/would not be paid to the holders, I would like to see some results and not just hear that some mysterious results are somewhere in our future for like 5 days. |
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I'm not planning on buying GHS on CEX, no worries.
But I'm also not moving over the rest of the HW due to the high network percentage.
Buying back bonds right now is just not a good idea as I'm trying to raise as much funds as possible to get LRM to expand. There are a couple projects going on that are limiting LRMs flow of cash making that move irresponsible.
I'd have no problem with this in April or so.
I'm likely going to take the alt coins for the time being to use 100% toward hardware.
It seems expanding LRM will be an ongoing process. When would you do a bond buy-back? In principle, buying back bonds is a good move for LRM & bond holders. It would increase weekly monies useful for more hardware purchases (i.e. LRM would expand faster) and increase dividends for bond holders (not to mention sustaining or even growing value per bond). And I wouldn't classify any good move as irresponsible. Unless perhaps, you know that you have another move or project that can easily beat bond buy-backs for the long term. For example, if you could acquire a better than bond GH/ BTC rate immediately in the form of hardware, then that might be better than a bond buy-back on the front end (not necessarily better for the long run; I'd have to do some math) - i.e. better for LRM & bond holders. Or if you had some mega clearance level deal in the works a month off, which hasn't been disclosed, then that might be better than a buy-back. If you don't know that your specific intentions are better or not, then share your intentions more often, you could take advantage of group think on potential moves for LRM & bond holders. There are plenty of intelligent people with vested interest in LRM success tracking this. it would only make sense if fees taken in for expansion where greater than current growth rate + next period's growth (next diff change). at that point you could say hell or high water we have met our hash investment needs. . . .so a while from now |
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What were the presale prices for cointerra?
originally it was $14000 for 2 TH (a TerraMiner IV in december batch) then january the price was $6,000 per 2 TH box... and thats the price its stayed for the remainder of the preorder period. I don't expect them to retain those prices after they start shipping. Pre-order prices have a high implied discount versus 'in hand and shipping in two days' prices. Historically, no Asic company has raised prices, even with products in hand. It's highly doubtful that the price will ever go up, since the return continuously goes down (even more so after shipping a crap ton of new hash to the network). |
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Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:
* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share
If we then plug in the numbers for AM's proposed batch size of 2-20 Ph/s and assume that this is put together by 14th May, using genesis block again gives the network hash rate to be 263.8 Ph/s. This gives the following: * 2 Ph/s would represent 0.76% of the network, which is worth 383.04 BTC per round and 0.0009576 BTC per round per share. * 20 Ph/s would represent 7.58% of the network, which is worth 3820.32 BTC per round or 0.0095508 BTC per round per share. Let's say that their batch size is 20 Ph/s. A large proportion of that will be for sale and not go into their mines. I'd say around 0.005 BTC per round per share should be expected after the new chips start mining. So, it's unlikely dividends will increase above what they are now. It is even more unlikely that AM stays at 100TH forever. It is possible that AM delivers earlier than april/the competition and hardware sales could equate to more profit than mining with that amount of hardware. I hear where you're coming from, but the next generation of hardware isn't being released into a first-to-market environment. It will be valued near break-even or better, unless none of these other companies ever do anything. the days are near gone where you'll be getting 10 btc for a miner that will only ever give you 0.5 btc. So, mining or not, the amount of hardware hash manufactured will track closely regardless of if you mine with it or if you sell it. . . . unless the plan is to sell non-professional low hash hardware to fan boys and noobs. |
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If HF was going to mine with our equipment and keep the funds would they really do so on such a public pool? Remove the tinfoil hats  totally agree... it would be unlikely for hashfast to be mining with customer hardware when customers have got pitchforks and torches outside the castle. there is little to no chance that this is a hashfast address. it just much too open... its the number one contributor on eligius. why would they be operating a 'secret mine' so openly. much too blatant (thus extremely unlikely to be them) ! although i do wonder what happens during their burn in tests... they must mine somewhere. i wonder, even if the burnin was just a few hours for each miner... i wonder how many bitcoins could be earned doing legitimate burnins on 550 batch 1 baby jets. If HashFast was mining with your hardware (which I'm not even remotely suggesting), they wouldn't need a pool at all. It would be highly unlikely a pool would be involved. |
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They wouldnt have been able to squash competition regardless. Not with 110nm chips and not when the market was so frigging large. Moreover, a lot of companies already presold their gear anyway, how were they going to stop BFL ?
I'm not sure anybody can "stop" BFL at this point, other than BFL (at least in the near term). The other competition, didn't exist at the time and wouldn't have been able achieve the same level of funding and investment if somebody had been able to pump more in hand product onto the market. Most of these pre-order companies started after AM hit the market. High prices and smaller volume opened a door for these companies to secure pre-order funding. AM could have leveraged the massive distaste for pre-orders and kept the funding these companies are using for product development for themselves. There are logistics barriers that were faced, but most of those have solutions (Amazon for Business, etc). Was there a barrier to massive production? Don't know. I do know that most people would have gladly bought product in hand (that was priced to at least break even with small margin) than do another pre-order. This would have left the other ASIC companies with fewer customers regardless of what they could promise in future hash. A lot of the available bitcoin would have been routed into AM's coffers instead of the competition's. This, in turn, would have left any start ups in a position to have to rely more heavily on VC/Partner funding and created higher risk for those investments. As the hash rose, the margins would have decreased and created less incentive for new entrants. If, AM had dumped the originally promised peta-hash of product on the market, the landscape would look quite different for the competition. Aside from the already sold pre-orders @ BFL, it would have strangled the massive amount they gained after AM's first few runs. The lack of product and profit loss pricing, drove people back into the pre-order market. Sure they couldn't have sold enough to satisfy the entire market due to practical limitation and market size, but could they have taken 60%, 70%? It would have allowed them to take a larger share than they could have mined without destabilizing bitcoin with 51% mining (which at one point was an actual problem). Instead, we got short term gains and overpricing (IMO). Anyhoo, gotta run  ty for the rational convo |
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I know its rhetorical question, but allow me to answer this one nonetheless - They did something awesome once, but can they do it again?
The awesome thing they did was being the first (and for quite some time, only) industrial bitcoin mining operation producing their own asics, at a time when almost no such chips existed. That is something no one will ever be able to do again. Also, I would put this: Do they have enough liquidity to produce their now called "3rd Generation" chips (even though there has only been 1 gen for AM) Firmly in the "pro" list, rather than with the "cons". AM has a huge stockpile of money, thats a serious advantage in any industry. They dont have to worry about finding funding or taking in enough preorders to pay for some NRE. THey can just do what they think makes sense and if need be, think big. They even have enough money to develop several alternatives (be it chip designs or whatever) in parallel, if they think that makes sense. I dont see how that is a negative. The question wasn't rhetorical in the least. Being first to market in high demand situation, they had a unique opportunity to dominate the asic market and squash the competition. IMO, instead of leveraging an economy of scale, they chose to perpetuate the scarcity and charge premium prices for their products. The most common question I hear from people, concerning ASICs (other that what is it), is "Why would a company sell a product that makes a customer money for less than the potential profit?". There are a lot of reasons. First, Money (read profit) in hand is always better than money over time. Leveraging customers to deploy massive hardware deployment mitigates the risk of a single deployment and helps bitcoin as a whole (for example, AM hit a ceiling on being able to deploy it's own hash. . . also see the principles behind bitcoin itself). Additionally, getting a fair deal creates a loyal longer term customer base. In the long term, selling shovels in a gold rush makes you reliably rich. There is also limiting opportunity for competitors to enter the market, ensuring proper liquidity in your customer base to create long term profit, and brand recognition. These last 3 are especially relevant, as they are what's hurting AM the most right now. I could go on for hours about each of these principles (and have in many conversations with friends), but this is the basic drive by of the common mistakes made by "first to market" startups. First to market is the flash in the pan that creates opportunity, the hardest part is leveraging that into a long term strategy that creates an unshakable pillar of an industry. Secondly, "huge stockpile of money" is relative. It may seem like a lot of money when viewed by single person, but I've seen many a startup achieve burn rates, in industries with smaller barriers of entry, that would turn the reserves of AM into a bad case of whip lash. The first chip produced was the "easy" one. It was a direct port of FPGA code into silicon. This type of chip is reachable for a small to moderate invest and even achievable by individuals for limited applications. The next iteration is the one to watch. It will make AM a real company producing products not achievable by a small group or individual. Cross your fingers. I really want AM to succeed. AM is the little engine that could. They are the embodiment of consumers coming together to innovate and provide for themselves based on their own needs. Being in china, it's even more of an interesting story of free market. I've found this company fascinating, stimulating, and extremely interesting to follow. I've also observed some ridiculous short term gain mistakes common to a lot of start ups. I follow patterns and ask questions, regardless of how much I want something to happen, there are a lot of questions that should be asked/answered. You can witness them emerge in the flare-ups in these forums (albeit not well worded most of the time). When I see someone entering this forum high on the hope, dreams, pump-and-dump hoopla and hype, I want to present them with the questions/state as I see it in hopes they will ask them, find the answers and be comfortable with whatever choice they make. All that being said, I so want AM to come back like the eye of a hurricane. I'd love to see them market a product that presents fair equity for customers and company. I have yet to see any information or strategy that gives me a reason to believe they are on a path to do so. It doesn't mean they aren't, it just means I don't see any information that says they are and that's what I look at for evaluation of value. The rest is just gambling in the dark imo. Which is fine, but when a new person shows up, they need to be aware of that. |
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Hi guys very new to the board but reading up Bitcoin a lot over last few months. Ive read White Paper still overwhelmed by potential I see in this disruptive tech. Posted quite a lot today have noticed there seems to be disingenuous tl:dr attitude which I may have unwittingly been fuelling which explains the reason Im now conscious of having to keep my posts short as poss. Heres my contribution. I have set a goal of making 100 Bitcoin during 2014. I have some inheritance money and will buy and hold the majority (btc quantity will not rise but value might) but want to invest in a high risk:reward venture such as Bitcoin securities yeah. My Uni room mate basically sent me here so here I am. Is Asic Miner something you would recommend to me Ive been told will go back up in price again soon? Last question is it just scare mongering when people talk about companies getting shut down by the Americans when Bitcoin is a global phenomenon?
Let the slaughter follow, but. . .No No No No No No No . ...there's no way I'd suggest doing that. Your best bet is just buying some bitcoins over a scheduled period of time after doing your research and being comfy with the idea. You need to be VERY educated about what your getting into. AM Cons: - Do they have enough liquidity to produce their now called "3rd Generation" chips (even though there has only been 1 gen for AM)
- Is the 2 phase liquid cooling a good idea?
- Now that they've fallen from even showing up on the hash charts (Which IMO was the only and best presence they ever had), will they be able to return?
- Tons of peeps on this thread and these forums will take you for the ride of your life, if you come on here saying you have stupid cash to spend on bitcoin
AM Pros: - They did something awesome once, but can they do it again?
These are my opinions, please read and make your own. . . . this is a free market, one of the few, your risk is your own. Do not come into this blindly. Bitcoin alone is a risk reward scenario. . . be educated or the rest is a blood bath |
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Edit: further more, buying a miner with btc to mine btc is pointless. BUT, buying one with fiat to get BTC is why they exist in the first place. The model of selling miners for BTC is a fail model, AM could really use this to it's advantage, if they can capitalize in yuan. then leave their mining profits in BTC, but use yuan to pay their supply line
I agree with this. We may see an increase in demand for mining equipment in China. If BTC exchanges in china or AM have their funding in order, they would immediately deploy BTC ATM machine network. As long as you aren't the chinese bank, I see nothing that says you can't. In fact, I only see there were they are saying it is legal and fine to use. |
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looks like that was from 10 days ago? not the recent news? please link to the "more recent" one, cuz it seems like peeps are just rehashing the same on for 10 days If you mean this: http://forexmagnates.com/china-bans-payment-firms-from-working-with-bitcoin-exchanges/then: It's just the bank expressing what the chinese government expressed, Banks and traditional money services are being walled off from bitcoin. their fear is that if bitcoin fails, the gov would have to prop it up to keep their currency from going down with it. China will have to find a "local bitcoins" type solution to get into bitcoin. . .or buy miners. Products have to be denominated in Yuan, but it doesn't mean that can't be converted to a bitcoin value for payment. Unless you have another source that is a quote from a quote. basically people can do bitcoins, but china's financial system has to stay the fuck out of it, because at this point they want to take a wait and see if it fails, before trusting their economy to it Edit: further more, buying a miner with btc to mine btc is pointless. BUT, buying one with fiat to get BTC is why they exist in the first place. The model of selling miners for BTC is a fail model, AM could really use this to it's advantage, if they can capitalize in yuan. then leave their mining profits in BTC, but use yuan to pay their supply line |
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looks like that was from 10 days ago? not the recent news? please link to the "more recent" one, cuz it seems like peeps are just rehashing the same on for 10 days |
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Price of each share?
last 0.26667 and going down daily ............. Why is that, empoweoqwj? because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions. Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me. I would describe it as "partly irrational but highly understandable". All AM shareholders would love to believe Gen3 will be amazing, regain 10% of the network, AM won't be sabotaged or fall foul of some "regulations" in China, bitcoin won't collapse, FC won't run off with our money etc etc. So there are lots of risk factors out there. That is why people don't look further than this week. Just depends on your risk profile. If you love risky stuff, buy some AM shares in the next month when they dip under 0.20. You could well make an amazing profit. But it could equally well blow up in your face. Nobody knows. IMO it also has to do with network share and the future (next February?) easily hitting 15 peta hash. With the currently targeted future AM chips being a generation behind what's hitting the market now, there are so many risk factors outside of dividends that it's a hard sell, again imo, that AM has a truly reasonable chance of recovery. The currently 30 gh/s product line finds itself barely palatable to any serious miner. When AM was showing on the hash chart a huge portion of pie, it was a name that was unavoidable and on the tongues of anybody talking about mining. Now, truly unfortunately, it has fallen subservient to the likes of P2Pool, Deepbit, and Bitlc.net (?!?!?). I know the coin grab from miner sells was very enticing, but I feel the raw hash power and publicity of topping the hashing chart was extremely undervalued. There are individuals on some of these pools sporting more power than AM currently possesses. Can this one company really compete with the 100s, perhaps 1000s, of individuals already pushing past the peak hash AM has shown. Don't get me wrong, I have really enjoyed this company and this thread, but I don't have a lot of hope for it. I just hope that FC & AM didn't spend too much of the piggie bank on all that copper tubing and cooling. There is a huge mountain in front of AM and I hope they are up to climbing it. |
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Endlessa: how many TH/s do you think we need to go solo?
I'll do the math tomorrow and figure it out, but I wrote a mining simulator back in march/april (to see how personal hash would perform under different scenarios) and it seemed optimal to be able to solve 2/3 blocks per cycle. You have not take in account hash growth and acceleration (rate of block solves past current difficulty, when difficulty changes it's almost instantly lower than network hash would dictate realtime, so it skews the "theoretical" maths). so as a safety margin, my tests said about 3 would help mitigate non-solve periods due to lucky/unlucky and competition (unexpected large deployments mid cycle). so you don't end up chasing the proverbial difficulty tail, so to speak. those were just my tests . . . feel free to verify edit: a cycle being a difficulty change |
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Would be awesome if we could see the mining payout wallet. We could both run a 7/10 day average to see hash and see what is actually being mined. Do we know that addy?
just realized that would only help if we were solo. ..hopefully soon |
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Would be awesome if we could see the mining payout wallet. We could both run a 7/10 day average to see hash and see what is actually being mined. Do we know that addy?
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FC has so far over-delivered not only once. They only sell what they have, they don't hype...
If we force him to spend his time communicating things that may change at a later point, or holding our hands on a daily basis, we are forcing him to give up one of the big advantages that we have.
No your watching revisionist tv. FC has never ever ever delivered the network hashrate AM was suppose to have mining. FC has never sold an item with a fair price that offered break even value given the difficulty. Also, most people aren't asking for "daily communication", but would like to know why the fuck they shouldn't sell their share given there has been nothing offered up but something "amazing" is coming and "wait till the next announcement" P.S. fuck you if your response is "It's more profitable to rip our customers off than to mine with our equipment" (Why mine with something you know will not return more money than you can rape a bunch of "losers" (sarcasm) for?") |
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Update 11/9/2013: TerraHash is still in business, we have not filed for bankruptcy yet. The refund from Yifu was cashed immediately back then, we did not make any profits from the recent surge in BTC prices. Again, we are still committed to provide as much refund as possible. I will update again in a couple days on how we are going to proceed with that.
Holy. . .. SHIT . . .your still in "BUSINESS" . .you aren't in business friend. . . your in the midst of a death throw. . . your the last in line of a centipede chain. .. your the retarded child in Kentucky falling down a well (Violent Femmes reference)... you sir are anything but "still in business" . .. you may qualify for "still breathing", but that is surprising considering the shark pool you shit yourself in (ie these peeps are pissed off) . . dude sell everything you have and grovel I have "no skin in this game", but you pissed a lot of people off with resources they appear willing to burn to crush you into the dust you came from. Are you retarded? You didn't file bankruptcy. If there was ever a moment in time to do so, it is now. not bankrupt, but you can't give people their money back? your either a liar or . .. well fuck I can't even come up with wtf ever else it would be. you have to bankrupt. . .or. ..well I'll let the others decide the rest. I hope to dear sweet mother of all gods (read as money) that you are an LLC. just my opinion, not fact, but you sir deserve a Darwin award |
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Hey Hey. . I ummmm. . . heard about this thing called MPP . . anybody got the inside track on this /sarcasm
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