ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[chriswilmer]

Nobody cares about mining or div now.
Next gen will be break it or make it for AM.
Price begin to rise , i think we will never see shares this low.

+1

[explorer]

Nobody cares about mining or div now.
Next gen will be break it or make it for AM.
Price begin to rise , i think we will never see shares this low.

With no prospects of new chips for a few months. Seems more like the beginning of a pump and dump to me.

At this rate you might have to be the one to sell lower then, as nobody else seems interested.  New recent high of BTC0.32 

[Mabsark]

Nobody cares about mining or div now.
Next gen will be break it or make it for AM.
Price begin to rise , i think we will never see shares this low.

With no prospects of new chips for a few months. Seems more like the beginning of a pump and dump to me.

At this rate you might have to be the one to sell lower then, as nobody else seems interested.  New recent high of BTC0.32 

That's the purpose of a pump and dump.

[Equilux]

Nobody cares about mining or div now.
Next gen will be break it or make it for AM.
Price begin to rise , i think we will never see shares this low.

With no prospects of new chips for a few months. Seems more like the beginning of a pump and dump to me.

At this rate you might have to be the one to sell lower then, as nobody else seems interested.  New recent high of BTC0.32 

That's the purpose of a pump and dump.

Is it inconceivable that there would be a kind of investor that has patience for more than 3 months and recognizes the possible (and fairly likely) massive upside of AM?

[explorer]

Nobody cares about mining or div now.
Next gen will be break it or make it for AM.
Price begin to rise , i think we will never see shares this low.

With no prospects of new chips for a few months. Seems more like the beginning of a pump and dump to me.

At this rate you might have to be the one to sell lower then, as nobody else seems interested.  New recent high of BTC0.32 

That's the purpose of a pump and dump.

Is it inconceivable that there would be a kind of investor that has patience for more than 3 months and recognizes the possible (and fairly likely) massive upside of AM?

  It is guaranteed. Anyone still hodling or buying shares fits this description...

[empoweoqwj]

Nobody cares about mining or div now.
Next gen will be break it or make it for AM.
Price begin to rise , i think we will never see shares this low.

With no prospects of new chips for a few months. Seems more like the beginning of a pump and dump to me.

At this rate you might have to be the one to sell lower then, as nobody else seems interested.  New recent high of BTC0.32 

That's the purpose of a pump and dump.

Is it inconceivable that there would be a kind of investor that has patience for more than 3 months and recognizes the possible (and fairly likely) massive upside of AM?

Yep - just about everyone that is left holding shares

The last of the "one-week brigade" will probably get shaken out after this week's divs ....

[User705]

Hopefully it goes lower.  Would be nice to grab some more shares.  The way to look at is that AM is currently worth around $70USD million and is paying dividends.  That seems low if you believe in the eventual mass success of bitcoin.

[minerpumpkin]

0.00061248 BTC this week, half of last week's dividends. I think it'll shake up the latest upswing (it does, already) and maybe scare some of those 'new AM100 investors'. But I still believe in a strong depth at 0.2 BTC. A lot of people are tempted and inclined to buy that low, including myself.

[Timetwister]

So we are mining about 46 000 ghash/s and there are 400 000 shares. That means that each share is just 0.115ghash/s. At about BTC0.25 per share, that's BTC2.17 per ghash, which is absurdly expensive. I wonder how much do we get selling hardware, but if just mining is considered, then shares are super overvalued.

[empoweoqwj]

So we are mining about 46 000 ghash/s and there are 400 000 shares. That means that each share is just 0.115ghash/s. At about BTC0.25 per share, that's BTC2.17 per ghash, which is absurdly expensive. I wonder how much do we get selling hardware, but if just mining is considered, then shares are super overvalued.

The share price is not based on currently technology.

[bobboooiie]

So we are mining about 46 000 ghash/s and there are 400 000 shares. That means that each share is just 0.115ghash/s. At about BTC0.25 per share, that's BTC2.17 per ghash, which is absurdly expensive. I wonder how much do we get selling hardware, but if just mining is considered, then shares are super overvalued.

So is your self belief about your logic. This is not a mining bond which is what you are trying to describe in your speculation.

[Timetwister]

So we are mining about 46 000 ghash/s and there are 400 000 shares. That means that each share is just 0.115ghash/s. At about BTC0.25 per share, that's BTC2.17 per ghash, which is absurdly expensive. I wonder how much do we get selling hardware, but if just mining is considered, then shares are super overvalued.

The share price is not based on currently technology.

Of course, it's just expectations on improving the hashrate and being able to sell hardware. But right now, if nothing changes, shares are very overvalued.

[bobboooiie]

So we are mining about 46 000 ghash/s and there are 400 000 shares. That means that each share is just 0.115ghash/s. At about BTC0.25 per share, that's BTC2.17 per ghash, which is absurdly expensive. I wonder how much do we get selling hardware, but if just mining is considered, then shares are super overvalued.

The share price is not based on currently technology.

Of course, it's just expectations on improving the hashrate and being able to sell hardware. But right now, if nothing changes, shares are very overvalued.

https://i.imgur.com/NwFYgvs.gif

[empoweoqwj]

So we are mining about 46 000 ghash/s and there are 400 000 shares. That means that each share is just 0.115ghash/s. At about BTC0.25 per share, that's BTC2.17 per ghash, which is absurdly expensive. I wonder how much do we get selling hardware, but if just mining is considered, then shares are super overvalued.

The share price is not based on currently technology.

Of course, it's just expectations on improving the hashrate and being able to sell hardware. But right now, if nothing changes, shares are very overvalued.

A case of stating the complete obvious. If things don't change, the company will be dead in six months. That's the gamble.

[WillBit]

https://i.imgur.com/aN7JTrt.png
https://i.imgur.com/BavF1ww.png

[Mabsark]

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

[stslimited]

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

lol

Ive been wondering why AM shares have held up in the .28 range at all, I can understand if people don't want to realize their paper losses and not sell, thats easy

but what I don't understand is why there is liquidity any where between .03 btc/share and .28 btc/share

[Mabsark]

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

lol

Ive been wondering why AM shares have held up in the .28 range at all, I can understand if people don't want to realize their paper losses and not sell, thats easy

but what I don't understand is why there is liquidity any where between .03 btc/share and .28 btc/share

I think they must be under the impression that the tape out date is when the new chips will start mining.

[Mabsark]

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

If we then plug in the numbers for AM's proposed batch size of 2-20 Ph/s and assume that this is put together by 14th May, using genesis block again gives the network hash rate to be 263.8 Ph/s. This gives the following:

* 2 Ph/s would represent 0.76% of the network, which is worth 383.04 BTC per round and 0.0009576 BTC per round per share.
* 20 Ph/s would represent 7.58% of the network, which is worth 3820.32 BTC per round or 0.0095508 BTC per round per share.

Let's say that their batch size is 20 Ph/s. A large proportion of that will be for sale and not go into their mines. I'd say around 0.005 BTC per round per share should be expected after the new chips start mining.

So, it's unlikely dividends will increase above what they are now.

[jimmothy]

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

If we then plug in the numbers for AM's proposed batch size of 2-20 Ph/s and assume that this is put together by 14th May, using genesis block again gives the network hash rate to be 263.8 Ph/s. This gives the following:

* 2 Ph/s would represent 0.76% of the network, which is worth 383.04 BTC per round and 0.0009576 BTC per round per share.
* 20 Ph/s would represent 7.58% of the network, which is worth 3820.32 BTC per round or 0.0095508 BTC per round per share.

Let's say that their batch size is 20 Ph/s. A large proportion of that will be for sale and not go into their mines. I'd say around 0.005 BTC per round per share should be expected after the new chips start mining.

So, it's unlikely dividends will increase above what they are now.

It is even more unlikely that AM stays at 100TH forever. It is possible that AM delivers earlier than april/the competition and hardware sales could equate to more profit than mining with that amount of hardware.