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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2019, 11:17:32 PM

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#0,3m

6 blocks found in the last 180 minutes.


The worldwide average "Electricity Only" cost of mining is likely around $7500/BTC. Maybe some miners are shutting down temporarily? Probably just variance though.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 19, 2019, 02:58:18 AM
I sure hope Satoshi didn't blow it with the curve he chose.

Fees are going to have to, umm, increase, to incentivize miners.

No need to incetivize miners. It's a self-regulating system. If they can't make enough money, they will drop out which makes the remaining miners more profitable.

Also, fees may increase as well and small transactions will be squeezed out. This is ok. There is no reason to use the worlds most secure transaction network to buy a cup of coffee.

It remains to be seen that this would work long term, although so far the adjustment of hashing to price fluctuation was impressive.
I worry a bit about mining concentration in the hands of the vertically integrated entities, like the recent P. Thiel venture.
It might cause further centralization and such centralization might cause undue re-consideration of bitcoin's rules (in time).

If bitcoin is still mined worldwide by then, I doubt any changes to the rules would be possible. It would require consensus and the world I know can't get consensus on any topic. Therefore, the only way to change the rules is to fork off. That could happen many more times and the value will follow if there is a market for it.

I think big daddy Bitcoin will be just fine though.

3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 19, 2019, 02:41:13 AM
I sure hope Satoshi didn't blow it with the curve he chose.

Fees are going to have to, umm, increase, to incentivize miners.

No need to incetivize miners. It's a self-regulating system. If they can't make enough money, they will drop out which makes the remaining miners more profitable.

Also, fees may increase as well and small transactions will be squeezed out. This is ok. There is no reason to use the worlds most secure transaction network to buy a cup of coffee.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2019, 09:15:25 PM
That Ellipal Titan looks interesting. Yeah, I figure the next bunch of hardware wallets would just use scanners and stuff. Those can't be easily hacked unless they were altered before you got it to misread QR codes.

Even if there is something wrong with it, or it was intercepted before you received it, it seems like you would be able to verify what the QR code says before you broadcast the transaction so it shouldn't be an issue. Similar to an Electrum air-gapped setup, you always verify what you signed before broadcasting the transaction.

I also wouldn't trust any hardware wallet to generate my Mnemonic in case it was tampered with or the manufacturer is doing something sketchy.

I don't know if I'd want to be one of the first to buy one from a new company but maybe Trezor and Ledger will take the hint and do something similar.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2019, 08:48:15 PM
Trezor (security by open-source) or Ledger (security by obscurity)?

which do you prefer?

I don't trust anything connected to the internet. The next generation of hardware wallets use QR codes instead like the Ellipal Titan.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2019, 05:48:18 PM
Quote
"When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency."

Quote
So, the value would be zero, if it's not listed on any exchange at the time of a fork, and it's not even listed on sites like coinmarketcap. No value = zero.

I mean, maybe 10,000 of that fork can buy a pizza, but if no merchant accepts it as payment, on the day of the fork, then it's not even worth a pizza.

I think it would be harder to prove the value was zero than to prove it was something greater than zero. It can't default to zero. Zero is a number that must be supported as well. There is always someone doing OTC trades or an exchange somewhere doing futures.

If it turns out the coin can't be sold or transferred when you get around to it, or if you transfer to someone else for a few pennies, that could be a loss to offset the gain as long as you can justify the value. If you give them to someone though, that could be considered a gift and you couldn't claim a loss.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2019, 05:27:11 PM

It is true. This only applies to people subject to US taxation (citizens and residents) and it doesn't matter where they dump the coins.

Yes, you owe the tax whether you sell or not. It is the same for U.S. stocks when a company goes public, original employees of the company are often given stock in the public company and they owe tax on the value of the stock on the day the company goes public whether they sell or not. This normally means they have to sell some of the stock to pay the taxes due.


What if a fork isn't on an exchange on the day it's created? Does that mean it is treated as zero value? Most Bitcoin forks struggle to get on an exchange within weeks of their creation. Some never even get on an exchange.

This is from their FAQ:

"When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency."

https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/frequently-asked-questions-on-virtual-currency-transactions

I guess you would have to have a good justification for showing what the fair market value was even if it wasn't on an exchange such as any trading activity you could find on this board or elsewhere.

Again, I'm not a tax lawyer.. but in relation to coins on an exchange, I take "when it is received" to mean that you gain control at the time the coins are credited to your account on the exchange, and you should pay income for fair market value at that time....   At least to me that would be a good faith effort that would prolly be kosher with the IRS.   The "provided you have dominion yada yada yada" part kind or precludes getting taxed at the moment of creation if the exchange drags its feet by a couple weeks.. as you specifically DO NOT have dominion over the new coins till the exchange posts them to your account.

You're right. They specifically address if the fork coins are on an exchange, then it is taxable when the exchange distributes them. The problem is only if you hold the keys to the forked coins.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2019, 05:13:55 PM

It is true. This only applies to people subject to US taxation (citizens and residents) and it doesn't matter where they dump the coins.

Yes, you owe the tax whether you sell or not. It is the same for U.S. stocks when a company goes public, original employees of the company are often given stock in the public company and they owe tax on the value of the stock on the day the company goes public whether they sell or not. This normally means they have to sell some of the stock to pay the taxes due.


What if a fork isn't on an exchange on the day it's created? Does that mean it is treated as zero value? Most Bitcoin forks struggle to get on an exchange within weeks of their creation. Some never even get on an exchange.

This is from their FAQ:

"When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency."

https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/frequently-asked-questions-on-virtual-currency-transactions

I guess you would have to have a good justification for showing what the fair market value was even if it wasn't on an exchange such as any trading activity you could find on this board or elsewhere.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2019, 04:40:49 PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2019/10/09/irs-issues-new-guidance-on-the-tax-treatment-of-cryptocurrency/#4f7b79d459e5

Looks like they want to treat the hardforks and airdrops now as taxable income events. Hopefully someone can explain how that isn't the case. All I need is to worry about now is keeping track of the 50 shitcoin hardforks and airdrops that get created everyday. That makes no sense so I assume I am wrong somehow.

No you're right. But you don't have to worry about it. It's rather a good news in fact, I hope it will be enforced heavily.

The idea is that you can be taxed ONLY if you sell the result of the fork. If there is a fork and you don't do anything with the coins then nothing is taxable.

How is it a good news? Well it decreases the incentive of a fork. Because tons of people won't get the new coins, knowing they will be taxed.

Hence less shitcoins and less forks.

That's incorrect. If you receive airdropped/forked coins, you're responsible for reporting that as income. Period.
The only loophole is that you're not responsible if you can't actually claim the coins, or have no control over them. An example of that would be if your exchange doesn't distribute the forked coins to you.

If that is true. Every Whale will dump (in the USA) rather than take a chance for another hostile fork of bitcoin and owing $50k to such or something because he did not dump.

I mean that means NO one could afford to HODL BTC in your own wallet due to malicious actors. Indeed north korea or Iran could 'fork' your coin for just that purpose. chaos.



It is true. This only applies to people subject to US taxation (citizens and residents) and it doesn't matter where they dump the coins.

Yes, you owe the tax whether you sell or not. It is the same for U.S. stocks when a company goes public, original employees of the company are often given stock in the public company and they owe tax on the value of the stock on the day the company goes public whether they sell or not. This normally means they have to sell some of the stock to pay the taxes due.

The good news is that losses offset gains so if a coin is worth $100 the day it was created but you sell at $1, you can claim a loss of $99 per coin when you sell as long as you claimed the gain when the coin was created as well.

Next time you vote, vote for someone who understands bitcoin or at least someone who wants to reform the IRS.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2019, 04:24:07 PM
If your BTC are in a personal wallet, and a hard fork/airdrop occurs..  If you are unaware of it, and never download the new wallet... It will prolly come down to how understanding the IRS auditor is..  either you owe it, cuz you *could* get control if you downloaded the new wallet,  or you don't owe, cuz you obviously wouldn't download a wallet for something you were completely unaware of...

I think this makes sense. What if there was some Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Green, Bitcoin Purple, Bitcoin Silver, Bitcoin Platinum, Bitcoin Diamond, Bitcoin Whatever ...

And you never downloaded the wallet, so the fork coins actually never moved ... when they do decide to tax you, the value of the coins at today's rates should apply, otherwise you can just say, I'll pay you in the forked coins ... What is your Bitcoin Whatever address, I'll send the tax owed on it.

That would make more sense.

But then, I don't know if the IRS will interpret it that way. They can't tax you what it was worth yesterday, when you are paying them today. As any gains or losses were unrealized.

Sure they can and they will. It doesn't matter if you sell them. When you sell them, that's a separate taxable event which would probably be a loss if the value dropped since the coin was created.

If you had access to those coins and were aware of those coins, that is 100% taxable based on the value when they were created or when you had access to them, whether you accessed them or not.

In an audit, it would be hard to argue you didn't know about it or didn't have access to the coins, if they can show you as a prominent member of the bitcoin community and you had the expertise to access the coins.

Selling them today or paying the IRS has nothing to do with the gain realized when the coins were created. If you do sell them at a later date, that is another taxable event.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2019, 02:53:36 PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2019/10/09/irs-issues-new-guidance-on-the-tax-treatment-of-cryptocurrency/#4f7b79d459e5

Looks like they want to treat the hardforks and airdrops now as taxable income events. Hopefully someone can explain how that isn't the case. All I need is to worry about now is keeping track of the 50 shitcoin hardforks and airdrops that get created everyday. That makes no sense so I assume I am wrong somehow.

No you're right. But you don't have to worry about it. It's rather a good news in fact, I hope it will be enforced heavily.

The idea is that you can be taxed ONLY if you sell the result of the fork. If there is a fork and you don't do anything with the coins then nothing is taxable.

How is it a good news? Well it decreases the incentive of a fork. Because tons of people won't get the new coins, knowing they will be taxed.

Hence less shitcoins and less forks.

That isn't what it says at all.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2019, 02:52:36 PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2019/10/09/irs-issues-new-guidance-on-the-tax-treatment-of-cryptocurrency/#4f7b79d459e5

Looks like they want to treat the hardforks and airdrops now as taxable income events. Hopefully someone can explain how that isn't the case. All I need is to worry about now is keeping track of the 50 shitcoin hardforks and airdrops that get created everyday. That makes no sense so I assume I am wrong somehow.

They don't understand the difference between a fork and an airdrop so of course they screwed it up by combining them.

In either case, they treat forks like airdrops and they are clear that if it's technically possible to exercise control over the fork coins, then they are taxable on the date of creation at the market price regardless of whether you access them or not. The selling of the coins is a separate taxable event.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 09, 2019, 10:03:28 PM
ETF decision (drum roll) REJECT rule change     Cry   https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nysearca.htm

So, basically, 95% of the Bitcoin market is fake volume and/or unregulated and therefore it is not possible to monitor the market for manipulation. Also, that 95% can't be separated from the real 5% in a reliable way that prevents the fake/unregulated/manipulated exchanges from affecting the price of the real exchanges and therefore, the ETF is denied.  

Based on that, i don't see how it will ever be approved.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST on: October 03, 2019, 03:07:28 PM
$10455
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 30, 2019, 10:15:58 PM
Asians don’t give a fuck about the environment, all they care about is money.

Solar is now cheaper than coal and getting ever cheaper fast (hint: the fuel is free).

China gets a fuck ton of sunlight - it’s just blocked by the Asian Brown Cloud which is a result of burning coal.  Once they start to transition properly, they will get a positive feedback loop.  

More solar panels = less coal = less pollution = more solar radiation = more cost effective solar panels = more solar panels ....





As an added bonus the US could stop sending its troops to die for Saudi Arabia once we break away from oil dependency. 

Wow, pretty offensive and obtuse and coming from a liberal no less. Chinese does not equal Asian. Take a trip to Japan or at least do some research before spewing this garbage.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 16, 2019, 09:41:22 PM

What does the 2017 vs 2019 one look like now?

Irrelevant. 

It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...

Not really, these idiot traders like to paint the chart for fun. It's not organic, it's manipulated up and down.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 16, 2019, 09:33:50 PM
The 2015 fractal that everyone loves to hate says we are on track.  

The next 3 months are an excellent time to dollar cost average in.  This should be our final round of consolidation at the “bottom” before we start the long slow climb over the next two years.

<img snip>

For the second time in one day...wishful thinking.
The old fractal is dead...long live the NEW fractal.

"You cannot step into the same river twice."

Heraclitus

What does the 2017 vs 2019 one look like now?
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: !!! Q3 game is life, Quarter 3 prediction game !!! on: July 03, 2019, 12:20:18 AM
$28,842

*It will be 3x our recent low of 9614.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 29, 2019, 01:38:35 PM
Is bitcoin dead?

It will be if CZ doesn't learn wtf it is.

.@binance will actively block any stolen funds coming our way. The key is fast reporting (victim) and real-time blocking (exchanges). To this end, we developed an anti-fraud system just for this. Will make it available to all real soon, free of charge. #SAFU

No blacklists, thanks all the same, CZ.

RIP Binance, it was good while it lasted.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2019, 11:27:00 PM
Just saw this terrible quotes commercial on TV that mentioned cryptocurrencies.

https://youtu.be/aAlC0fwWM8Y
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