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161  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2020, 10:56:47 PM
I'd say its more logical to conclude if aliens were a factor then its historic rather then in expectation going forward or at least now in this moment.  Simply put more time has passed and the better theory is Aliens are already on earth or arrived and left or died, etc.
   Its possible we cannot perceive aliens as they are beyond the spectrum detectable to us or some other reason we arent aware or they are on the ocean bed and/or near volcanic gaps in the earths crust and some life does exist and rely on geothermic flows so thats feasible also.    When I say alien I mean any life form not earth derived, could be as boring as alien bacteria and nothing more complex.   Could be some life we presume is earth evolved actually came from a meteor and adapted here, etc.

 Low is 50 day MA, target downside really is 6500 and more important and upside 8000 or we can just carry on sideways mostly.

They have been here all along and we are a byproduct.

This is well documented in Sumerian tablets and retold in just about every society that ever existed since.
162  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2020, 08:20:02 PM
I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.
Nothing.
Petrol prices are based on Jun future that's now trading at 22 USD.
Plus taxes and other non-oli related costs reduce price volatility.
So don't expect many nice surprises here.


I don't really understand any of this. Who, if anyone, can buy oil at those extremely low and even negative prices? What does it mean?

One oil future contract obligates the buyer/holder to buy 1000 barrels of oil for delivery during the month of May. That is, whoever holds it at the end of the trading period.

The oil producer creates the contracts and people trade them. The producer might have written the contract at $20 per barrel last month to lock in the price. Since then, the contracts have been traded around, the producer already pocketed the $20 per barrel though.

The person holding the contract today, had to pay someone to unload it (negative price) because they don't have the ability to take delivery. The producer doesn't care who takes delivery, they already got paid when they wrote the contract. I guess they could have bought their own contracts and delivered to themselves at a profit but that would require them to shut down production which is expensive.

The traders effectively paid someone $40,000 per 1000 barrel contract to get it off their account. Not including whatever they lost on the way down.
163  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2020, 07:49:50 PM
Looks like the bitcoin manipulators are trying to take advantage of the oil drama.
164  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2020, 07:29:19 PM
Barrel of oil equivalent = 6.1178632×109 J
Antminer S17+ 70TH/s rated @ 40J/TH


 6.1178632×109 J/bbl x 600 bbl = 3,670,717,926,540 J

 3670717926540 J / 40J/TH = 91,767,948,163.5 TH

 How many bitcoin can I mine in 91,767,948,163.5 TH?

 The probability that any give hash will lead to a valid block is 1/(232D), where D is difficulty
 currently D = 13,912,524,048,946

 So, 91,767,948,163.5x1012H x 1/(23213,912,524,048,946)/Block
 
 = 1.5357666489943172022545931579071 Blocks (currently 12.5BTC/Block)

 = 19.197083112428965028182414473839 BTC

 Wow.  I thought it would have been much more.  
 We're killing the planet!!


We're about to mine BTC900/day so that's 46.8821223895886 barrels per day, that's probably less than heating costs for one bank

Ummm?

It looks like about 390 barrels per block if the above numbers are correct. Even after the halving, this won't change unless the difficulty goes up. If we mined on oil, that would be 56,160 barrels per day.

I think the vast majority of bitcoin is mined on cheap renewable energy like hydro or thermal though.
165  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2020, 07:10:43 PM
These oil option traders who never intended to take delivery are getting ruined. They have to dump the contracts or be stuck with arranging delivery. Option traders should have to be part of the market to even trade, gtfo if you're not in the oil business.

Same goes for the bitcoin option traders, gtfo if you're just trying to make filthy fiat.

Maybe they'll pass a law after this all blows over to ban cash settled options.
166  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2020, 04:17:21 PM
Literally only 22 days now Smiley

My body is ready Wink


https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

$8000 in the next 2 weeks (pre halving). I’m sure of it Smiley

I was considering that "sure" means something very close to 100%?

If I click on "buy" now, depending on when I click, surely I am getting 12% - 13% return in two (or perhaps 3) weeks.tm  aka soon tm

That's relatively reasonable.  Wooooo whooooooo!!!!!!

You're doing it wrong, your score card is inverted. More BTC is the goal, not more fiat.
167  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 17, 2020, 10:19:59 PM
CVN-71, now with over 95% of crew tested

fully 60% of positives are asymptomatic

let that sink in

Excellent news. Herd immunity usually kicks in around 65-70%.

So if we can infect that many people who have no symptoms, this thing will be wrapped up quite nicely quite quickly.

Lock up the immune compromised and let everyone out of their cages.

End of the pandemic.

Thanks for the great numbers. We're out of the woods on this now.

These are the best of the best, young, physically fit (for the most part) and pretty much zero medical conditions. Their immune systems are going to be among the best the population has.

The asymptomatic number and mortality rates are going to vary wildly depending on numerous factors. Look at most of Asia for instance where there are very few obese people and very few deaths from this compared to the fat ass west.
168  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2020, 02:56:45 AM
Many of my friends are planning to sell if it goes to 8k$ to buy low in the 4k's. Many are scared.


... one month before the halving...

I pity these fools

It just goes to show how incredibly hard it is to be a hodler and how few can do it.

It sounds easy, but in practice, only a person who sees more bitcoin as the goal rather than more fiat can do it.

Taking profits means getting more bitcoin, anyone thinking the other way will not make it to the holy land. There are many more tests ahead.

I don't know about the rest of the WO, but I can't sleep if I have fiat, it's too risky.
169  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2020, 08:40:26 PM
Come to find out...that $1200 stimulus check is just a loan. To be paid back in your 2020 taxes.

Link?

Do you mean it needs to be repaid in FULL next year even if that were your ONLY income? 0% interest at least?

It's a refundable tax credit so it's not a loan at all.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2020/03/25/all-you-wanted-to-know-about-those-tax-stimulus-checks-but-were-afraid-to-ask/#31cf9b7d1f9c
170  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2020, 11:08:10 PM

We need to glass China from orbit.

It's the only way to be sure.

the most dangerous war is the one you don't realize you are in

also

anybody that takes that $1200 is part of the problem

That pittance is nothing in comparison to what the fed is giving the Wall Street gamblers. It's only there to placate the masses in hopes of staving off a revolt. I'll take it and buy bitcoin just as anyone who gets it should do.
171  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2020, 06:37:14 PM
I don't frequently go to a Ford forum telling people why my VW is better, ~

You mean you don't go to a Lambo forum telling people why your Yugo is better.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zastava_Koral
172  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2020, 06:28:20 PM

lots going on here
What did I miss? Unemployment up, economy in lock down, and the stock market goes up? That doesn't make sense!
Is that the dead cat bounce?

It's simple. Never waste a good crisis.

Wall Street creates a massive bubble, dumps all stocks, buys bonds, tricks the fed into buying all the bonds, rinse and repeat and pocket trillions leaving the American taxpayer with the bill.

Classic pump and dump.
173  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2020, 08:31:39 PM
Sorry if it is already been posted this look insane to me.

LEAKED! New Footage: MILLIONAIRE Admitting He Is Buying $160,000 Worth Of BITCOIN & ETH EVERY MONTH!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBZ53pBDl2k


IF this is a legit (big IF), it is a nice dive inside a whale mind.
Of course you have to discount a few concept, but something to learn from it.

OR

He's maybe one of you?


I refuse to watch that clip because of the scammy title. Also, the full interview was posted here a couple days ago.
174  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2020, 07:57:48 PM
It looks like the Fed will end up buying junk bonds now. The fed will end up owning everything before this is over. The US stock market is pumping because everyone wants to sell to the Fed at a high price so they can get out or short. The market is tricking the Fed. This won't end well.

This is what happens when you elect a retarded person to run the country. Idiocracy.

I wish Chamath Palihapitiya would run instead of Biden:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAt7Rg1u2l8
175  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 07, 2020, 04:46:51 PM
https://youtu.be/dktBrlikweo
HodL - A Bitcoin Short Film by The Garcia Brothers


Will a public address be considered valid by the Bitcoin network if the last character is left out? Seems FUD.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Address
Quote
The probability that a mistyped address is accepted as being valid is 1 in 232, that is, approximately 1 in 4.29 billion.


I don't think any wallet would accept that as a valid address. The 1 in 4.29 billion you're talking about is assuming you have the right number of characters for that address format. The last 4 bytes are a checksum. If you mistype, there is a 1 in 4.29 billion chance the checksum might still be valid.
176  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 07, 2020, 03:50:12 PM


These graphs are rendered fairly dubious since that China data is extremely likely extremely skewed to the low end.

Part of what you see is data from western/democratic nations being higher numbers simply because they tend to hide less.  Even if they are hiding, they hide much less information than China, and in fact I would not be surprised if the USA numbers are inflated as I understand we are making ANY death that a positive COVID diagnosis is part of the COVID death numbers.  It is possible that someone could have recently had a simple cold and died of a heart attack, and that number gets thrown in...

Yeah, I think each hospital, city, county and state in the US is motivated to report the highest number possible now that the flood gates are open for government assistance.
177  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2020, 05:02:49 PM
slight correction

if you pay in cash he will gladly take the $80 as his staff doesn't have to fight the insurance company for it for it

Why would you think that?

If the bill says $120, you're on the hook for $120 w/o insurance.

Plus, my last doctor was a lady woman.

pro tip

negotiate a cash fee ahead of time

I have done this, it is a real thing.

I don't know if ALL doctors have a separate cash schedule, but many do, it pays to ask.

Probably some good 'ol boy doctors do it, and they'd rather have cash-in-hand than an IOU. On the flipside, I've had to write collections letters to specialty drug patients whose insurance lapsed for $60,000.

Is that a monthly amount? No wonder everyone else has to pay such high premiums. Grotesque price gouging.
178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2020, 04:33:43 PM
"I spent an hour and a half at the entrance to the emergency room of a major New York City hospital this afternoon, watching, observing. No panic. No crisis, no emergency that I could see whatsoever. Zilch. Nothing. I saw perhaps a hundred people associated with the hospital who couldn't have been more unrushed, lackadaisical, and/or unconcerned. Not one person would speak to me on camera (video).   I saw all of four people enter the hospital on gurneys....3 of whom were very old, none of whom seemed to be in any discomfort at all. ......... And for this we shut down essentially all economic activity in NYC-- an unprecedented measure in all of human history. Somebody help me out, because I think I'm going to go insane now......"

-Pamela Rice, NYC citizen, 15 hours ago

What is the fallacy for equating what is currently happening with what would have happened?

I guess you missed the 80 bazillion MSM news reports of NYC hospitals saying they are literally being overrun with COVID-19 patients? Like today. Now. Like hundreds of dead bodies everywhere. Panic, everywhere. Supposedly.

Here's one:
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-deaths-top-1300-as-potentially-catastrophic-apex-looms-later-this-month/2356187/

You know the MSM doesn't publish anything that isn't sensationalized. Who would read a factual piece unless they get a little dopamine out of it? Also, you know lazy Americans, if you have to take care of one extra patient or work one extra hour, that is considered being overwhelmed. Got to get home to the Cheetos and ice cream.

179  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2020, 04:09:28 PM
"I spent an hour and a half at the entrance to the emergency room of a major New York City hospital this afternoon, watching, observing. No panic. No crisis, no emergency that I could see whatsoever. Zilch. Nothing. I saw perhaps a hundred people associated with the hospital who couldn't have been more unrushed, lackadaisical, and/or unconcerned. Not one person would speak to me on camera (video).   I saw all of four people enter the hospital on gurneys....3 of whom were very old, none of whom seemed to be in any discomfort at all. ......... And for this we shut down essentially all economic activity in NYC-- an unprecedented measure in all of human history. Somebody help me out, because I think I'm going to go insane now......"

-Pamela Rice, NYC citizen, 15 hours ago

What is the fallacy for equating what is currently happening with what would have happened?
180  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2020, 02:01:38 PM
Weekly Jobless Claims Rise to 6.6 Million

6.6M people without insurance in the US.
Good.
What could possibly go wrong?


Pretty much anybody who is unemployed can file for state medicaid insurance (public insurance). When I quit my last job I got it. Of course my doctor at the time refused to see me as a patient anymore, because medicaid claims paid out like $20 less per office visit than sweet private insurance...
Let me better understand.
Under medicaid you go to the doctor, you pay nothing, and then the doctor is reimbursed 20 bucks from the government?
So he can decide to allocate his time to higher paying clients with private insurances or you paying 20$?
Is that correct?


No, you pay nothing but the doctor probably gets $80 for a basic visit from medicaid/medicare but he wants $100 so he refuses to see the $80 patient.

Also, not all insurance pays the $100 he wants so he may not accept your particular insurance even if you are covered. If you pay in cash, he will gladly take your $100.
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