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I am a newbie to bitcoin mining. I got a S9 miner. Let me make my question simple for Kano pool. I used Antpool for about two weeks. I got average 0.0028 BTC per day from Antpool, with average 14TH/s. Antpool pays everyday. If I switch to Kano pool with average 14TH/s, do you think I can get better than 0.0028 BTC per day? Maybe Kano cannot pay for this much every day, but on average, from a week/month perspective, do you think better than 0.0028 BTC/14TH per day average is achievable for Kano pool? This is not asking for guarantee, but just for a general ballpark estimation and expectation. Thanks.  The answer is yes you will get more at kano pool...... BUT it depends over how long you evaluate and when you evaluate. If your period of evaluation is short then you may earn a lot less or a lot more. The longer the period of evaluation gets the higher the certainty that you will earn more. If you have to get a payout every 2/3 days then PPLNS is maybe not the reward method you should look at even though your reward over a longer period is higher. Sorry, I know there are a lot of 'to long/shots' but all is probabilities and no one can guarantee - as you know. Edit: A good indication may be what others earned relative to you the last month or two but again, history is no guarantee of future. |
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Remember there is no direct measurement of Network hashrate - it is back calculated by the blocks found. There will always be statistical variance on the blocks found, so the hashrate calculation will follow along.
Yes, back calculation on a sample.... always exactly this <-------> accurate.  |
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Yes. I'm still trying to figure out where the 2-3 Exahashes go from BTC during certain times. I see it hit 18+ to sometimes down to under 15. This huge amount power going on and off is a big determinant if we see bigger adjustments moving forward.
Interesting - certainly contribute to the jumps. |
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We are about 15% through this difficulty period blocks -
- An estimate: If the network continue at the current rate of finding blocks: 2 203 417 299 950 +14.10% 18/01/13 04:33
Note: Only thing I am sure of is that the figure above is not the next difficulty change. It only gives an indication of the hashing power above/below for the first 1.74 days into this period.
If anyone has better estimate please share
That would be a big jump from this last adjustment of ~3%. I've noticed its better to wait until the last couple of days to get a better idea of what it will be. Hashrate can go up or down a lot of days during the 2 week time periods. Yes, the confidence on any estimate now is very low so early and one can not really make any conclusion from a prediction. It only gives an indication of the hashing power for the first 15% of time. There did however come in quite a bit of hashing power in the last part of the previous period which I think was not well reflected in the ~3% difficulty change. Lets wait and see where it goes. Will continue sending updates every couple of days |
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We are about 15% through this difficulty period blocks -
- An estimate: If the network continue at the current rate of finding blocks: 2 203 417 299 950 +14.10% 18/01/13 04:33
Note: Only thing I am sure of is that the figure above is not the next difficulty change. It only gives an indication of the hashing power above/below for the first 1.74 days into this period.
If anyone has better estimate please share
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Have anyone seen a block lying around ?  |
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Increase in difficulty hurts everyone on the network and the same % for all hashing power. The mining calculator for monthly(30 day) BTC earn at H hasing power:
[...]
Well said. The only part that I'd add is the pool has to grow at least as fast as difficulty does, else variance will get worse. Ideally faster to reduce the likelihood of blocks from hell. M Good point. |
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So does a diff increase hurt any more or less for a low hash rig vs a high hash rig? At first I thought it would hurt less if I had a bunch of machines. But the more I think about it, it would probably hurt the same?
Increase in difficulty hurts everyone on the network and the same % for all hashing power. The mining calculator for monthly(30 day) BTC earn at H hasing power: BTC earn = (B*H*N*S) / (D*2^32) B - Reward per block (say 12.5 BTC) This is where we WIN with kano as we get paid out transaction fees and its getting more important H - Hashrate per second (1 Th = 1 000 000 000 000) N - Number of days in month (say 30) S - Number of seconds in day ( 24*60*60 = 86400) D - Difficulty From above you can see, for a 3.11% difficulty increase D will change to (1+3.11%)*D which means on the other side => (BTC earn)/(1+3.11%) So everyones BTC earn goes down by the same % no matter the hashing power. Another question was: If the price (USD) rises with the same same % (3.11%) over the difficulty change interval will the payout stay the same. Yes. USD earn = (BTC/USD price)*(BTC earn) , now if difficulty go up 3.11% and USD/BTC go up 3.11% : USD earn = (1.0311)*(BTC/USD price)* (BTC earn)/1.0311 => back to USD earn as 1.0311 cancel. Just some thoughts - Even though the general feeling is that we dont want Bitmain to have a monopoly and need more competition this is maybe not always good for us miners. Competition may/should push the cost of equipment down BUT more players will push more Hashing power into the network. One company should have some limit to their production capacity that will limit the flow of hashing power into the network.(i hope, you never know with the chinese) Also, to raise the Network 13.5 Eh/s (say that is the total BTC network hashing power) by 10% requires 1.35EH/s THAT IS many many S9s (1000 000) We need to secretly love Bitcoin cash and hope it stays profitable to mine. It pulls alot of the SHA-256 hashing power out of Bitcoin. Ok, more than I wanted to add. |
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First block of 2017 was 446033 with diff 317688400354.03 Now the diff is 1931136454487.7 so ... over the past year it's increased by a bit over 500% (or it's now a bit over 600% of what it was a year ago) ...and with Canaan and Bitmain pushing out SHA hashing power in the PH/s EH/s per month :/ |
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Am I missing anything in my quick analysis of diff going up every two weeks?
Assume 3% (conservative, I hope) every 2 weeks, that is 216% a year. As long as the price of BTC goes up by 216% in 12 months from now, and I don’t add any hashrate to my current rig, my monthly income should stay constant?
Yes, your reasoning is right. With rough calcs: Number of periods per 365 days 365/14 = 26.07 difficult adjustments. Say 27 as with +3% the 2016 blocks per adjustment is reached before 14 days. (1+0.03)^27 - 1 = 122% per year Average growth rate over periods back from 01 Jan 2018 4.9605% Growth over 52 periods 6.3150% Growth over 25 periods 6.7718% Growth over 20 periods 6.8812% Growth over 15 periods 8.0766% Growth over 10 periods 5.8569% Growth over 5 periods Note:Still to updated with December where difficulty increases were ~14%... so lets guess 6% average per 2016blocks/14days
(1+0.06)^27 - 1 = 382% per year Update: +6.32% over last 25 diff. periods I've looked at the numbers and with the current cost of $2830 for S9 13.5Th/s one will break even after 1 year with figures below Base Electricity rate: 0.135 $/kWh (incTax) Costs : $130.53 /month/miner Power: 1.375kWh/miner . 5.7Amp Base date and diff. 01-Feb-18 2 078 871 567 453 Difficulty rate: +6.00% /14 days Block reward : 12.5 BTC Price base :$11 000 Price growth: 2.00%/14 days Edit: To many caveats and disclaimers to list  |
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Looks like a 3.2% increase in difficulty is about to hit. That puts it around 1.93 trillion.
M
Not too bad 1931136454487.72 +3.098% |
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Any other difficulty estimates ? Seems like quite some extra hashing power came online this last week.
1 931 295 625 328 3.11% 18/01/01 03:29
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Nice mining guys.... already a good end to 2017
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That is good news Shipment of S9's came in - I convinced my friend to point his to Kano as well. His 7 are now up and running, I added 4 - so +148.5 TH today. I ran out of power cords for 3 more, and pending shipping 3 from Bitmain and 1 at customs that I need to apply for my import licence.
New Year's Eve block dance!
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Yes, it looks like around +1.5% increase. Will be interesting to see how much network hashing power come onboard over the next month or two. my estimated next difficulty calculation : 1 890 290 596 971 0.92% 18/01/01 10:50
will probably end up between 1.0-2.5%
Any other estimates ?
Based on the prior blocks in this difficulty round, it's currently 9.88 mins between blocks. That puts the next difficulty around 1,895,655,751,456.57, or about 1.2% increase. Scheduled for the wee hours in the morn of the first day of 2018 (US mountain time). M |
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my estimated next difficulty calculation : 1 890 290 596 971 0.92% 18/01/01 10:50
will probably end up between 1.0-2.5%
Any other estimates ?
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Network: 55m 1s (501394) WOW, a 55 minute block and counting.
that is good, we dont want the difficulty to go up |
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Congrats Gopher! Lets see the blocks roll in OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT:
Gopher is up to 70 TH/s 4x 13.5TH and 1 x 14 TH And they do just a wee bit more, making it 70 TH ish :-) Jan 21-30 Delivery came EARLY!!! YEAH!
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My estimate for next BTC mining difficulty: drop between -1% to 0% around 2018/01/01 14:00 1 869 539 787 755 -0.19% . 18/01/01 14:33 Any other estimates ? |
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Got another of those 'bazillion web logins' going on on the web site again.
You'll find logins disabled for a while.
Silly bots. Can you pick up any pattern ? |
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