Yep. bitcoin was only good for buying drugs before I got into it ... after that it was only a gimmick.
Lol. The stages of learning: 1. Unconscious incompetence - you don't realize how ignorant you are 2. Conscious incompetence - you realize you 're ignorant 3. Conscious competence - you start to try and understand 4. Unconscious competence - you are able to teach Kkasper is currently unconsciously incompetent You're not even competent enough to spell my name.. |
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Yep. bitcoin was only good for buying drugs before I got into it ... after that it was only a gimmick.
It's a gimmick in finance, but it's pretty practical in gambling. |
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I might mention here that your manners and language are not characteristic of an educated mind, nor even of a marginally socialized modest intelligence.
Yes, I know. But I have no reason to remain civil with someone who repeatedly tells me that I have no vision or how I don't believe in fundamentals of technology. I find windjc to be arrogant and ignorant at the same time and personally I would have already prefer corporal punishment on him, but I have to settle with what I can. I will speak to everyone in the language they understand best. I'll only remain civil to people who deserve it. Most of the people who oppose my ideas here deserve it, while windjc is currently the only one here that I think deserves a good ass-kicking instead. And where will you find better stability? "Stablecoin"?
Bitcoin will be stable when it stops growing so rapidly and has more inertia (market cap, if you must) relative to the fiat cross-flow.
Not all investors are so pusillanimous as to find the necessary growth phase daunting. Without growth, no network can become non-trivially homeostatic.
Don't know where I will find it, because it hasn't been created yet. Increase in market cap. will only attract players with deeper pockets and better knowledge on how to play an unregulated market. If market cap. will get bigger then the previous whales won't be as important, but there will be new whales who will be more capable in manipulating the market for their personal gain. That is the sad final outcome of an deflative currency with an unregulated market system. Money can never be attractive as an investment opportunity or it will ruin the entire idea why money should be. Money is no value by itself, but only an intermediate tool to trade value. If you try to make money as an valuable investment, then you will actually screw up the economy. |
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You don't actually understand macroeconomics and finance better than me or you would know that the value in bitcoin is not as a currency.
Oh, interesting! Explain me then, what is the true value of bitcoin. You missed the entire point of this technology.
The technology of what? Cryptography? Python? Personal computers? The Internet? Bitcoin source code doesn't bring anything new to the table, it only combines existing technologies in one innovative idea. So, there is no complex "technology" in bitcoin to be valued, the idea is what is valuable and the idea can be made better by others with their own innovations. Volatility doesn't matter to merchants for reasons that are obvious and because of issues that have already been resolved by companies like Bitpay.
Services like Bitpay will only maximize it's utility with using it as an intermediate payment tool to compete with credit card companies. Currently using bitcoin is more expensive, time consuming and difficult then using a credit cards. Right now it's a gimmick even in this intermediate payment field. It only could be more then a gimmick if it would be a stand-alone currency without fiat to support it. |
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So, we get it. You are a trader. You don't believe in the fundamentals of the technology. You are just here to make money trading. Ok. Great. Take your profits and get some more precious rocks. Bye.
I will say this again: screw you, you delusional prick! When i'm saying that bitcoin isn't the answer because it's too simplistic, then it doesn't mean that I don't believe in the fundamentals of technology. I just understand macroeconomics and finance better then you, that bitcoin won't be able to offer price stability and without price stability it won't ever be a quality currency. I believe that this idea that bitcoin created will soon bring forward a new wave of information technology based currencies, that already have an integrated market regulation system and a more proper system for creating new units. When someone said that Macintosh won't conquer the world as a personal use computer, that there will be competition that will better the idea, then it doesn't mean that he doesn't believe in fundamentals of technology! |
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This is precisely why you are wrong. You think nothing matters before you arrived on the scene. Bitcoin isn't at a make or break point. That is only your immature (time reference) view point. Bitcoin is still in its infancy. It can go to $100 and still be worth $100k one day.
You think the hundreds of millions of VC developing the current eco-system cares whether bitcoin is $100 or $1200 right now? Fuck no. They are innovating for the future. You think wall street cares? Nope. Except that $100 is more attractive than $1000. Too bad its not going back to $100. Its going, maybe to the 200 SMA and that is all. So quit worrying so much and acting like this hasn't all happened before. Its happened over and over and over. History absolutely makes you wise.
I didn't invest before, because bitcoin didn't mater then. I knew about it and I even visited your little forum, but I had no interesting in being involved in an gambling platform that is supported only by drug trade. Can you argue against it, like it had any other utility then buying drugs online? Do you argue against it that the tor drug market was the only thing that gave value to bitcoin then? Bitcoin only became interesting to me when I saw a chance that it could also be more. During the last period the chances of this happening are getting smaller. I also see the simple truth that bitcoin won't be able to create any price stability with this overly simplified proof-of-work mining system for creating new coins. That will be the final stop where bitcoin won't be able to go further. People with basic financial knowledge can see that bitcoin isn't the answer, but it just propagated the idea that will lead to an answer. I just hope that bitcoin still has couple of years of hype left in it, so there will be better cryptos, that would make financial sense, and that could possibly develop into a stand-alone currency. Then the end of bitcoin won't be the end of this idea of privatized monetary systems, but value will flow from bitcoin into another. Only lazy and uneducated hodlers believe that they can just buy, wait some years and become millionaires by just buying early. World doesn't work like that. It's funny how these people present themselves like fighters for liberty and how they promote bitcoin because it's the right thing to do. What they are really doing is hoping that there will be an re-distribution of wealth and they can be the new ruling class in economy, all while doing no work and having no practical skills or education to contribute to society. |
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Or, he thinks long-term.
The more long-term you predict bitcoin, the more you gamble. There are so many real factors that rise probability, that in the coming years, bitcoin will die. Only thing special about bitcoin is that it was the first popular outlet of an very good idea. It's like believing in the 80s that Apple will always dominate the personal computer market, because it was the first to succeed with Macintosh. You can't hold onto this idea alone. Other can better that idea or just market that idea better with their products. Bitcoin value is only held up by speculation
- Definitely not true. Bitcoin adds a great deal of economic value.
Sadly it is. Bitcoin has very little economic value, the idea has a lot of potential for value, but bitcoin itself is an economic gimmick. Mainly because of the overly simplified proof-of-work system to introduce new coins. Because of that, bitcoin will never be a stand-alone currency and it needs fiat to give it value. Right now, with adopting bitcoin payments at your shop has no value in financial efficiency. You will only gain the trouble in converting your money. Only reason why some companies decide to accept bitcoin payment, is for marketing reasons. Starting to accept bitcoin will get you lot's of free press and it will also get you some new loyar customers among those who are loyal to bitcoin. It will make your financial dealings less efficent, not more. If you want to store value, then buy resources like rare-earth metals, that are in constant demand together with technological advancements and their supply is constantly getting tighter.
-"Rare-earth" is a bit of a misnomer. They aren't actually all that rare. And the supply-demand equation fluctuates a great deal. I would definitely consider bitcoin to be a much safer investment than rare-earth commodities, which are not so easy to physically hold, by the way. There may be some rare-earth supply-chain enterprises which are fairly safe investments, but they are unlikely to qualify as stores of value, or to provide such speculative upside as bitcoin.
With Rare-earth metals, it's not hard to find geographical places from where to extract the ore, but it will be difficult to find places that let mining and processing with this environmental impact to happen on their soil. And also to consider the growing demand, I think that picking the right element is the best store of value investment that one can currently do. Bitcoin is not rare, it's only decided by a group of people that it is rare. And you are also trusting a group of unknown people that it will stay rare.
- A very large group of mostly known people whose interests are fairly predictably aligned with my own.
There are about 12,37mil bitcoins in circulation. Can you tell me the names of the known people who own 6mil bitcoins together? or even 2mil? or 1mil? Last time I remember that some big bitcoin holder came into public with his coins was when Winklevosses declared that they have about 1% of total bitcoin circulation. Can you please give me other names that have declared how big their stake is in bitcoin, so I can see on who are these people who I am supposed to trust then? |
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No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If anyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.
So why do you buy Bitcoin, and not just donate to Bitcoin related start ups, if itīs not about making profit? I buy bitcoin because I believe it have a chance to be a reliable store of value, so that I can hedge the risk of inflation. Moreover, I also want to be rich, but prefer to be rich because bitcoin is more successful, not because someone unfortunately buy BTC from me at a large loss. If you buy bitcoins to store value, then you probably don't know much about money. Bitcoin value is only held up by speculation, so trusting bitcoin to hold your wealth is giving your money to the bitcoin hodlers and trust that they won't cash out. That is naive as an investment and a naive way to deal with wealth. If you want to store value, then buy resources like rare-earth metals, that are in constant demand together with technological advancements and their supply is constantly getting tighter. Bitcoin is not rare, it's only decided by a group of people that it is rare. And you are also trusting a group of unknown people that it will stay rare. |
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No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If everyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.
But speculators who chant Choo Choo and are delusional about the future contribute more? For instance how do you contribute to bitcoin? or how does windjc? |
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Would you like a nice Cheddar to go with that whine?
To my point. You bought in October/November. You are new to bitcoin. No one is trying to convince you that we are going to the moon tomorrow. Read my posts. Over and over and over again I state we are in a bear market and we might hit the 200 sma average on Stamp before reversing. That average is at $450+ today and in about 4-5 weeks it will be at around $550. So we are well on our way to full correction, in my opinion.
There. You happy now?
Btw, China doesn't matter. You think that was Chinese money going into Bistamp and Gox? It was money from all over the world.
It doesn't mater how new I am. Before 2013 bitcoin was just play money for buying drugs and the entire market system revolved around that utility. Right now bitcoin is at the doorstep in becoming a legal financial tool. This moment is crucial, if it succeeds it will rise much higher, but if it fails, then it won't get another chance. So, I don't really care about your bitcoin experience pre-2013. I just care if bitcoin will get past that doorstep or not. And currently it seems like it is slowly falling back. And based on what, do you see that the price is actually rising not just preparing another deeper drop? All I can see is relatively strong bottom resistance and very little lift. But without lift the bottom resistance is weakening and we can see this through most of January. There won't be a rise just because there is strong support at the bottom, there also has to be strong support for lift, but it aint there. Without lift the bottom will only weaken and weaken until it breaks. |
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the stock market has been kicking ass lately whachutalkinboutyo? =)
For the whole 10 days? |
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It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.
do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc? if so, why? It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims. You have vision. Bitcoin has been through WAY worse than this. And it keeps on keeping on. You are just caught up in the moment with no historical vantage point. Its laughable that you think a healthy market means one with no risks. Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk. Otherwise be quiet please.(personal and historically unsubstantiated angry opinion) f.a.c.t. I bought at 200$, when bitcoin was actually covered by an famous news program in China that is known for representing the Chinese government stance. I sold at around the start of December, when there were no volume to support the price going up and it got clear that China won't have any legal potential with bitcoin. I only bought back once around 800, for couple of hours after I sold again. The last reason was only because I was intoxicated and bored. So, you religious/lying sack of excrement, don't tell me about having no vision. Pricks like you have been telling me 2 month, that NOW it seems like the price is picking up again, making up childish reasons like "China doesn't even matter!". And for all those two months I held my own decision with only winning by doing this. The slow downfall just continues and continues and it's not difficult to see why. Delusional pricks like you make me feel shame of my interest in bitcoin, because you do make this place look like a cult or a gang of crooks. |
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It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.
do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc? if so, why? It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims. You have zero vision. Bitcoin has been through WAY worse than this. And it keeps on keeping on. You are just caught up in the moment with no historical vantage point. Its laughable that you think a healthy market means one with no risks. Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk. Otherwise be quiet please. (personal and historically unsubstantiated angry opinion) |
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It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.
do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc? if so, why? It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims. |
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Time.
Depends on when you look for the permanent upward trend, what time scale, from start, until now.. well there is...
from now into future could well be... you can cherry pick to show periods of down trend in the Bitcoin timescale if you want , to get whatever result you are looking for though.
MtGox does not equal Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is not Mt Gox, also maybe some of us simply have a different analysis and have a different idea of what will happen with MtGox, and if or if not a particular event would prove to be that important over a timescale of the next year, two years... so that does not make them, stupid, it just means they may have different opnion, or maybe a different risk tolerance than you do.
also I think you give to much credence to the idea that someone spreading some "good btc news or vibes" or bad for that matter make a huge whole lot of difference
If you look at the entire history of bitcoin bubble-cycle, then the next bubble will always drop to the point where the previous bubble reached. And with this quarterly timescale, you can see that the risen demand in China made the price go up, and now this demand is gone without a substitute. So, no mater what period I observe, I see that the right place should be around 200-300$. MtGox is not Bitcoin, but MtGox IS A BIG PART OF THE BITCOIN MARKET! How can this be so hard to understand? If people are saying that the market is turning up, without knowing the outcome with MtGox, then they are either stupid or they are lying. When it turns out that MtGox is insolvent, then the press won't cover how people lost their money trusting MtGox. MtGox is not the hot subject here, the press will talk how people lost their money investing in bitcoin. How bitcoin is just a play money, manipulated by guys who run places like MtGox. And that will scare away any new investor with a half a brain, because he can see that there are actually no regulations that would keep his money safe, when trusting the bitcoin market system. That he would just have to invest in blind faith, and only fools do that. |
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Ok... so stock markets look healthy atm, all must be well then in the market place then?
Gold and Silver, little rally last few days, but been quite low for quite some time, so they must not be worth much...
Sorry to bore you, but no gun to your head old chap, so if you do not want to read hit ignore, with all respect.
Happy to discuss otherwise, without asking you not to post
I don't think that the stock market looks very healthy at the moment. There are also many uncertainties, and that's not considered healthy. Healthy is the market where there is little chance of bad surprises. It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC. It's hard to imagine how someone could be this stupid, so I bet they are just manipulating the market and motivating the sheep to buy, so they can sell themselves. |
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Well we agree all but on the one point then... (in bold)
With that point I do not agree that is the case, the entire market dispite these recent newses developments i.e China, Mtgox,code bug vs code feature, is stronger than it has ever been.... with more backing and interest than it has ever had... more regulatory clarity than it has ever had around the globe.. more investment and more users than it has ever had... and also it is still standing.. these are all very good signs.... the money is invested and is seeding and fruiting now already, the regulations are being written, the ecosystem built, the users and belivers are all talking and eventually even their grans are going to have Bitcoin walllets if they want them or not (in my family anyway) so it is those wheels in motion as we speak, right now that money, those devs, that work, the plans, the work of lawsky and co on the regs, all of these things are occuring right now.. as I type. So it is that coupled with an understanding of the power of network effect, coupled with the fact that I do not see Mt Gox taking down Bitcoin, I do not see the malleability issue doing so either, I do not see it being banned, so in the mid term I cannot see any reason wy it would go down in price either.. thats my point... I think that the problems will get less as the ecosystem develops which it is doing so, and as soon as Lawsky & Co do their thing, and the legal picture is clear , then the projects will spring up everywhere (some are already in dev now ,and some will start once regs are clearer) and the ecosystem will spring up super quick, and some of the big players that spring up next, will be in the public domain for decades.. These developments are happening right now they are the foundations... they have been poured, and they are now just getting ready to set.
Do you consider that last year the price at $1100+ was unstable and to high, and that we have just had "bitcoin going lower"
Else, what is your ideal figure I wonder? and why ?
With that point I do not agree that is the case, the entire market dispite these recent newses developments i.e China, Mtgox,code bug vs code feature, is stronger than it has ever been.... with more backing and interest than it has ever had...
Please don't make these long and boring speeches on how strong you think that the market is. I can see how "strong" the market is by looking at how "well" it preforms (correlation is not causation). Only time when the price has any momentum to go upwards is right after an major fall (historically incorrect). I don't work in a way that "encouraging words about the strength of bitcoin will keep my faith". I can see that the only reason why bitcoin price hasn't plummeted yet is because of "the cult of hodling" and the ASIC market (personal and historically unsubstantiated opinion). I see that the main reason is that miners payed good money for their ASICs, that won't bring in any ROI with these prices. So, this is a desperate (unsubstantialed opinion) hold and it can't last like that forever. Over time, miners are cutting their losses and selling their mining equipment and coins cheap (unsubstantiated opinion). This will eventually trigger the hodlers to sell also, and that is the final end of this stupid (personal and angry opinion)and overly stretched dead cat bounce. (correlation is not causation) - There is no reason see that bitcoin has increased it's speculative demand. (historically incorrect) - No, it's not historically incorrect. You can look at the 1d chart from oct. Only momentum that is left, is from the last China boom. It hasn't picked up because it doesn't have a reason to pick up. It just tries to hold while the force left from China boom is depleting. In my book, this is desperation. (personal and historically unsubstantiated opinion). - The miner circle has the most amount of active coins. Miners didn't buy miners for passive long-term collection, or they would of bought coins in the first place. Like it or not, but miners do have a very big say on supply. It's very important if the stable flow of 3600 new coins per 24h goes to holding or for sale. Especially when demand is very low. Also, your entire reply was an unsubstantiated opinion of my opinion. So this was a an out-of-place remark anyway. |
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Well we agree all but on the one point then... (in bold)
With that point I do not agree that is the case, the entire market dispite these recent newses developments i.e China, Mtgox,code bug vs code feature, is stronger than it has ever been.... with more backing and interest than it has ever had... more regulatory clarity than it has ever had around the globe.. more investment and more users than it has ever had... and also it is still standing.. these are all very good signs.... the money is invested and is seeding and fruiting now already, the regulations are being written, the ecosystem built, the users and belivers are all talking and eventually even their grans are going to have Bitcoin walllets if they want them or not (in my family anyway) so it is those wheels in motion as we speak, right now that money, those devs, that work, the plans, the work of lawsky and co on the regs, all of these things are occuring right now.. as I type. So it is that coupled with an understanding of the power of network effect, coupled with the fact that I do not see Mt Gox taking down Bitcoin, I do not see the malleability issue doing so either, I do not see it being banned, so in the mid term I cannot see any reason wy it would go down in price either.. thats my point... I think that the problems will get less as the ecosystem develops which it is doing so, and as soon as Lawsky & Co do their thing, and the legal picture is clear , then the projects will spring up everywhere (some are already in dev now ,and some will start once regs are clearer) and the ecosystem will spring up super quick, and some of the big players that spring up next, will be in the public domain for decades.. These developments are happening right now they are the foundations... they have been poured, and they are now just getting ready to set.
Do you consider that last year the price at $1100+ was unstable and to high, and that we have just had "bitcoin going lower"
Else, what is your ideal figure I wonder? and why ?
With that point I do not agree that is the case, the entire market dispite these recent newses developments i.e China, Mtgox,code bug vs code feature, is stronger than it has ever been.... with more backing and interest than it has ever had...
Please don't make these long and boring speeches on how strong you think that the market is. I can see how "strong" the market is by looking at how "well" it preforms. Only time when the price has any momentum to go upwards is right after an major fall. I don't work in a way that "encouraging words about the strength of bitcoin will keep my faith". I can see that the only reason why bitcoin price hasn't plummeted yet is because of "the cult of hodling" and the ASIC market. I see that the main reason is that miners payed good money for their ASICs, that won't bring in any ROI with these prices. So, this is a desperate hold and it can't last like that forever. Over time, miners are cutting their losses and selling their mining equipment and coins cheap. This will eventually trigger the hodlers to sell also, and that is the final end of this stupid and overly stretched dead cat bounce. |
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even now in this time of FUD the market is flooding with new users...
Where do you see that the market is flooding with new users? What I see is that there is only volume after during and after another drop in price. After that there will be a slow downwards slope with decreasing volume, until another drop. And that is the slow downward trend that Bitcoin has been in the past 2 months. Some people are saying that NOW is the time when the downwards trend switched upwards, but based on what?! Based on "I have a feeling that it is going upwards"? There hasn't been a single development that would make bitcoin more attractive to speculators. If you want to invest in a shoe store company, then you want to see it open more stores and sell more shoes. With bitcoin, the market system is actually breaking apart more then growing. Growing of the market system is the real thing that will great speculative demand and that is the real thing that sets the price. |
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I think your two goals are kind of at odds with each other...as soon as there is a hint that there is more stability and more "markets" lets say exchanges improved ecosystem and adoption growth and clearer regs etc.. as soon as the market gets (even more of) a whiff of that then , the price will go up to price it in, not down, unless "they" manipulate the exchanges to get a better price to buy in at...hmmm
Yes, that's the point. Investing into BTC is only attractive if there is a reason for the high price or the price would be low enough. When the price is high without a reason, other then desperation of fanatics, then it's not a good investment. News I care about are:a) Opening/Closing of markets b) Changes in legislation c) BTC code Rest of the news don't mean much to me when speculating the price. During the previous period a,b and c have only been negative. So, to me, there is no rational reason for the price to be much over then it was before the China boom. It's not the first time when markets are not rational and hold the price up by fanatics or manipulators. And this kind of irrational market, that is held up by pillars that are on a verge of breaking, is a big no-no as an investment opportunity. The price has to rest on a more solid base then on "will of the HODLERS", or it has to create real increase in demand. Either one has to happen to shock this 2 month old dead cat to life. It could of already have been in a slow and stable uptrend if the market would have been more rational and finished the "loss of China" crash without denial. It's stupid because it only wastes time.. |
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