yea that's the thing. 2013 had the marcus and willey situation but 2017 had bitfinex and the spoofing, wash trading, tether etc.

i completely agree on adoption. i mean you have people from all walks of life interested in crypto right now

also agree on the correction. we had a 70% peak to trough on this one which is only 10 points shy of 2013 which was a MUCH bigger rally with a MUCH crazier nuclear blow up.

so really...i was spit balling with this question. what do people actually think of this year and even the current situation with good/great news being sold fairly hard. we still haven't reclaimed the 200SMA. we also are tracing out a wedge pattern if the 6k low holds. if it does and we keep making these lower highs you eventually get to the tip of a wedge which almost always equals a breakout one way or another. if the 6k low is broke then you have a decline situation with lower highs and lower lows. if 6 goes the 2014 situation starts looking reasonably likely. chart patterns often repeat themselves. we have already had a 70% retrace. 2014 was 80% that's how close things already are.

there is no moral. it was more of a thought out question. does it feel like 2014 again?

we also are no where near the biggest dump in prices. not even close. 2014 had an 80% retrace. the only thing that is "largest" is the sheer number of dollars per coin but that is kind of meaningless.

as i mentioned above, an s9 is making about $3 a day at 11kwh which is a standard price in the US. profits are pretty terrible right now if you're mining.

it's not fud on the mining. i'm looking at current difficulty and current price/electricity/maintence. i'm sure there are now a lot of miners as #1 they were extremely profitable for the past year and #2 they have them. the number of new s9's being sold i would imagine is much lower. at 11 cents kwh an s9 is making around $3 a day. who is spending $1200 on a miner for $3 a day?

we also have the unresolved bitfinex / spoofing / tether situation and how much effect it had in 2017

alt coins have been following bitcoin so again my comment on gpu mining looks a lot like what i just said about the s9. an alt coin that suffers a 98-99% loss from today's price is dead. without funds how will the project further develop and be competitive? they become a gamblers coin at that point. there are what? 1500 alt coins or so? by the time you get to #100 on just marketcap you start getting into some shady projects. even popular penny coins like electronium. dude. they can't even make their phone app work correctly and this today is ranked at #100. it's also not any any of the major exchanges. there are 1400 worse than this

i wasn't around for this but i know some of you were. i was studying the charts earlier and noticed since bitcoin was invented it has had 2 parabolic bull markets. 2013 and 2017

in 2013 the bitcoin price run was basically 20 to 1000 or a 5000% increase. in 2017 it was much smaller at 2000% but still very much a run. 2014 also had mt gox go nuclear.  also note at the lowest point in the last bear market bitcoin never even got close to where 2013 started before the run up. the market low was found in spring of 2015 around $220 or 10x higher than the start of 2013 however it was an 80% peak to trough. after this it was an uptrend for years with corrections along the way. we had a MUCH smaller run in 2017 at only 2000% vs 5000% in 2013 and no mt gox blow up. it seems very unlikely to have a repeat as the news is actually really positive and you run into problems with the network in general below 5-6k minimum now. we also have already had a 70% correction with no where near as bad of news and no where near as big of initial run up. an 80% correction would be BTC 4k.  miners will start shutting down due to low profitability around 6k and or difficulty will have to fall....in fact that's already starting. you actually get more coin selling hashing power now than you did at this time last month. many of the dec/jan gpu miners are likely already leaving.

the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.
 

my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.

long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.

i suspect even more have been lost. if satoshi was Hal as many of us wonder it's highly possible his family destroyed a good deal of the original holdings or did not know where they were etc. we know some were left to his kids but with the hell that family went through it seems highly likely they sold all or nearly all by now. i would be shocked if they have more than 100 hidden away. just an enormous amount of coins were mined 2009-2011 and the value was very very low. lost copies, bricked computers, lazy people, the list goes on. i would not be the least bit surprised to find out the maximum coin number is closer to 15 million

hard to say. never have seen such an extreme level of bearishness on crypto as i have right now. lot of people seem to feel it's going to zero. useless. they are just gambling. sell strength and walk the chart down.

if you believe the value is zero

why are you here?

i don't necessarily think it's that. it's the market mentality. we aren't in a clear uptrend yet so a lot of people are still selling into strength. lot of them may not believe in any of this and just see it as gambling. they take their profit and run figuring everything is a pump rather than learn about what's being developed

i'm just going to throw out something. after 574 pages do you guys really think this is going to be settled? there are a couple very distinct brain types and each has a hard time relating to the other. you have fear based skeptic decision makers and intellectual hope base decision makers. some say this is a right wing / left wing thing as righties are often more fear based decision makers and left wing hopeful. i'm not sure if this is 100% but on to my point

when you see someone so skeptical that they believe in flat earth what that is telling you is

#1 they don't trust "the system"
#2. they may use words like indoctrination when describing standard education  
#3 they mostly believe only what they can see and feel

How some of these people are religious still mystifies me as the belief in god requires you to step into just that...a belief. my only remote theory is that they see religion as a security blanket. a way to feel that what they think is justified. this is quite different to what i would call an intellectual belief in god where a person simply says "i'm not 100% sure but it seems likely there is more to the universe than what we know and it's just as likely if not more so that some being had a hand in the creation of all we see vs pure random chance" you may also notice VERY left leaning people have difficulty with this as they find security in the idea everyone and everything is pure random chance. big bang happened. random chance took over and we have what we have with evolution on a macro level.

back to flat earth. i think Elon could put one of these guys on a rocket and shoot him to space where he could actually see the planet. this might change their mind or they might just believe there is a painting over the window and it's all fake. they couldn't possibly have been wrong for so many years could they have? we have that infamous tweet from the flat earth society. "unlike earth mars has been observed to be round. " if this isn't a pure skeptic i don't know what is

so in short. this is 574 pages of nothing. they aren't changing their mind and neither are the intellectuals who keep laughing at the flat earthers

if there's one thing to be learned from this it's to identify your strengths. right wing fear based skeptics are often better traders and are more likely to get into events intellectuals deem "silly" case in point where we are. bitcoin. there were a lot of ultra libritiarian types who loved the idea of bitcoin. they made fortunes. times advance and now blockchain is being looked at for worldwide adoption. low and behold the hopeful liberals start appearing out of thin air in a space many of them deemed crazy just years prior.

so come on. learn your strengths and weaknesses and realize the world may not see things the way you do. learn how to deal with people who don't. it will make you stronger and one hell of a lot less hostile toward the "other party"

besides wondering why there are so many alt-right, flat earth conspiracy nutjobs on here

the best case for satoshi is Hal. An alter ego to keep heat away from him during development

the staggering amount of unmoved bitcoin is almost certainly lost. if there is a way to check last movement dates going way way back, large accounts that haven't moved since Hal died would be highly suspect. especially if they were active when he was in development. i'm sure much more has been lost besides his but what he had is likely to be very VERY large. countless stories have been told of people losing keys and hard drives crashing or just being recycled. a lot of mined coins in 2009-2010 may have simply been discarded.

this is of course not counting major holders who hodl large amounts. winkle. bitmain. possible roger, OG developers, random billionaires etc.

the endgame seems very easy to figure out. once the majority of the float is removed from active trading it takes very VERY little to bring the price up. as that happens you create FOMO and euphoria. people buy their .0001 btc and pay whatever. when the price is brough to 50-100k a coin, even 1m is not out of the question. the large holders can sell into strength a few coins at a time. 20 years out they have more money than anyone in recorded history.

it's really that simple

5 years ago i bet many people who were on this forum had many bitcoins, hundreds if not thousands. today. many of us have partial bitcoins, some have 1 full coin, maybe 2-3, very very few have hundreds and practically no one has thousands

the float is being removed bit by bit

now if you want to put your tinfoil hat back on, like after i slap you for thinking the earth is flat, there is one conspiracy that may hold weight. if you only have 10-100 major bitcoin holders they could easily form a syndicate. they push the price to an agreed upon amount. people FOMO like mad. they have set deals on who can sell how many each week. again, think 20+ years out. these people will own the world. it's rothchild v2.0 . what about alt-coins you may say? well this again could tinfoil one of a couple ways. #1 i'm not the only person who has realized this. ICO coins are made. pumped and sold for BTC. electronium comes to mind here. large and i mean LARGE orders of this crap coin have been traded for BTC. create a crap coin, pump it, unload for BTC. theory #2 the major players are behind a lot of the alt coins and use them to do something similar to #1. they get more BTC on the cheap by unloading said coins and drawing new people, new us dollars and new euros into the market. theory #3. ICO's will be regulated against in the major world markets drastically strengthening what it takes to bring them to market. they may call it the crypto protection act or some such thing. this again drastically shrinks the pool leaving fewer coins with at this point a very interested public. again, guess who owns large numbers of the best ones. even this most recent sell off....the price falls down to just above where it's profitable to mine with an s9 let alone the industrial asics. the ability to buy more cheap is there and you sour weak hands, they unload out of fear. it's only been like 5 months since the peak and countless comments now are very bearish. these people have likely sold and want to see it either burn or go lower. if it doesn't they will eventually fomo pushing prices right over that december high as they will now be competing with even more people over that small number of available bitcoins.

x2

i agree. bitmain is basically the poster child of centralization. i think we all know they own a HUGE amount of bcash but they likely own a fking ton of bitcoin and litecoin as well. their business model seems very straight forward to me. keep prices of said coins high enough to be profitable. sell asics. reap massive profits. difficulty goes up, rinse and repeat with the next gen. this can be done as far to the future as i can look. all they have to do is make sure coin prices rise accordingly. with the billions in profit they rake in and the float on coins like bitcoin so small. i mean between them, the twins and what's been lost how many are really left to float?  

even if you do this the ROI is miles ahead of anything else on the market

i don't understand why some of you are trying to break down the oh no it's not 45 days it's like 70-90 when either argument reaches the same conclusion. they have one miner with an ROI lightyears above anything else out there on their site or GPU land. it doesn't make sense. something is missing from the equation. either they expect dev. forks or they expect a dump and massive difficulty increase and or prices are going to rise on this asic before launch.

what searing points out above was basically the elaborated version of my full thought process

what are your thoughts on the other profitable GPU algos like lyra, dagger and scrypt? i can absolutely see this nuking equihash but do you really think it will be the end of gpu mining? if so, why?

something is just odd about this. let me elaborate.

the E3 is priced at 2000-2400. it mines like a 6 card rig and costs about the same as one

this new z9 is like 12 grand in GPUs but only priced at 2k? if bitmain sold 12k in gpu's they would be asking at least 9-10k for it

sooo what gives? are they just expecting a fork? at current this thing is what? a 45 day ROI which is something i have never seen since i have been in crypto. did this ever exist years back?

the price to performance just seems out of line

might be worth keeping this thread up. but, to the best of my knowledge kraken is going to handle the changover for existing token holders of EOS.

1. is this correct?
2. what exactly changes besides moving to their own blockchain? is the old EOS just going to be frozen in time never to be recovered and we all move to the new version or with it be similar to a litecoin split where we had bitcoin and litecoin at the same time?

at this rate it will be over 30 by the end of may

modern LED lights only use 7 to 10 watts each. even the older spiral bulbs are maybe 20w. no one uses incandescent in the US anymore

best thing for someone to do is measure with a kill a watt then calculate what else is on the line. my advice is turn off a breaker you plan on using and see what else dies. if it's just lights. 100w is like 10 lightbulbs which means the rig could have a max draw of 1200-1300w to stay at 80%

yea but that's using watts

you can have it running on your cell phone at 30hs and it uses very little battery

it's free coins for participating

litecoin is basically bitcoins only legitimate child . there is also some really curious math with litecoin. let's review. litecoin has 4x the supply of BTC. litecoin is mining 25 coins per block right now. litecoin is trading at $150. litecoin came out roughly 2-3 years after bitcoin. get in your delorean because we're going to look at bitcoin in 2015. in 2015 the block reward was 25 coins. in july 2016 it dropped to 12.5 which is where the runup started. by 2017 it was just an uptrend. in 2015 the average price of BTC was around 600 which is exactly 4x LTC. literally...if you missed out on bitcoin you have virtually the same tech in litecoin only better in some ways staring at you right now. people may slam charlie lee for selling most his holdings but consider this. he didn't want to have litecoin be his personal plaything. he didn't want a centralized coin, he wanted litecoin to stand on it's own. personally speaking LTC and ETH are two stories i really love.