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Economy / Speculation / Re: Even if you want to buy...
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on: August 03, 2011, 09:50:01 PM
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sure just saying its an option for ppl that want to "buy btc quick!" and don't have USD/EUR in a trading account.
Vig is a bit high at VirWox and volume is thin, but it's no problem and quick
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125
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Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Price Drop
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on: August 03, 2011, 09:21:45 PM
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#1) Many more bitcoins will be in the hands of non-ASIC miners.
Completely irrelevant. The market price is what someone - anyone - sells at. We already know not all mined coins are being sold. Correct, so even if your mythical ASIC miners are willing to sell at $2 a bitcoin, doesn't mean anyone else will be. Mining technology only affects mining profitability not bitcoin price! Not sure why you think you have proved otherwise. Did the price crash when ppl started using GPUs?
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128
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Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Price Drop
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on: August 03, 2011, 08:38:01 PM
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Yes, and in the meantime those who switch to ASICs can undercut everyone mining with GPUs and still make a huge profit. That creates a downward pressure on the price of bitcoins.
#1) Many more bitcoins will be in the hands of non-ASIC miners. #2) No other resources dynamically adjust their difficulty to a fixed rate. If you get a magic gold finding machine, the gold doesn't automatically become harder to find after you use it a few times. #3) All of the price is dependent on miners nonsense only holds true if other bitcoins were being destroyed after use so the only way you could get bitcoins was to buy from a current miner and if the difficulty of mining bitcoins didn't change with technology. It is impossible to have a major disruption in bitcoin supply. Disruptive technology may quickly drive previously profitable mining operations out of business, but it won't do jack to the BTC price which is determined by buyers and sellers. Some of those sellers are miners, many aren't.
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129
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Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Price Drop
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on: August 03, 2011, 07:19:51 PM
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The rest was irrelevant due to the point I singled out. Mining with CPUs wasn't a problem until GPUs came online - and since they were so much more effective that caused a disruptive shift where all CPU based mining stopped. The same will happen in the shift from GPU to ASIC.
I agree with you that GPU mining will eventually be made unprofitable as ASIC mining (and botnets) takes over, but that has to do with difficulty adjustments, not price adjustments. Difficulty is a lagging indicator of both price and technology available (ie; difficulty will tend to reach an equilibrium where mining with whatever technology is available is slightly profitable - which is why mining is a "race to the bottom"). However, barring cartel action by miners, price doesn't really reflect whatever technology is being used to mine bitcoins. You could blow up all the ASICs and GPUS in the world tomorrow and mining difficulty would still try to adjust to where mining was just barely profitable for most operators at whatever the current price was.
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130
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Battle for the Single Digits
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on: August 03, 2011, 07:13:03 PM
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There is very little resistance between here and $8 or so.
Interestingly enough, I think $6-$8 is a good consolidation price for BTC for the forseeable future until more infrastructure comes online, better clients are built, etc.
I sold the few hundred BTC I had laying around yesterday and will buy back in about $7 or so. In the meantime, I will use bitcoins as I need them but not hold them.
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131
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Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Price Drop
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on: August 03, 2011, 06:23:30 PM
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By your analysis, bitcoins should have been super expensive when they were being mined by CPUs.
Mining difficulty/expense has absolutely nothing to do with the price of BTC, only the profitability of mining, since the network autocorrects to produce a known amount of coins no matter what mining power is.
BTC price is determined by demand for BTC. Nothing more, nothing less. A mining equilibrium can settle it at any bitcoin price, from .01 USD to $1000 USD (and likely will).
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132
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Other / Politics & Society / Re: Debt Deal Reached
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on: August 02, 2011, 12:18:14 AM
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FlipPro: There's nothing good about this bill from a "Democratic Socialist Liberal" standpoint.
In fact, there's pretty much nothing good about this bill from ANYONE's standpoint, unless you like a combination of kabuki theatre, delaying the inevitable, and fucking over the poor even more.
Bet the stock markets will get a nice boost this week though. All you traders may want to sell into that rally since by any metric, the US economy is frigging screwed.
But hey, now we get to watch most of Europe default before the US does!
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136
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Economy / Economics / Re: Countries that followed the Austrian School to Prosperity
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on: July 28, 2011, 06:43:23 PM
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Hyperbole goes both ways I guess if you think the Pinochet era was A REIGN OF TERROR!!1. Sure, he rounded up and killed, tortured and imprisoned his enemies but that's no different than what happens now in the world. Do you consider the United States a reign of terror because the administration likes to kill a lot of muslims and torture them in Guantanamo?
Of course I do! (think that the USG is guilty of mass murder and torture) - The US is a police state at home and a nightmare abroad if you happen to live in one of the countries they are currently targeting. The USG is quite literally the Evil Empire at the moment, with the highest rate of incarceration at home and more military spending than most of the rest of the world combined The hidden hand of the market will never work without a hidden fist. McDonald's cannot flourish without McDonnell Douglas, the designer of the F-15. And the hidden fist that keeps the world safe for Silicon Valley's technologies to flourish is called the US Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps. (Tom Friedman, NYT persistent defender of US capitalism/globalization) Of course the Pinochet regime was a reign of terror -- What else do you call it when a dictator assumes power in a military coup and systematically kills, imprisons, or destroys his political enemies, embezzles millions from the government, etc. Really, you have absolutely zero moral ground to stand on here if you are trying to make the case that Pinochet's regime was somehow "freer" or "more democratic" than Allende's
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137
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Economy / Economics / Re: Countries that followed the Austrian School to Prosperity
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on: July 28, 2011, 05:28:39 AM
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you're comparing Chile under Allende to North Korea? hyperbole much? A democratically elected government to a megalomaniacal dictator?
Christ compare Allende - a democratically elected leader to Pinochet's reign of terror, torture, disappearances, and imprisonment of dissenters. Seriously, you do know that Chile is like something out of a capitalist horror show right? Military takes over greatly helped by the CIA, installs dictator, who rules by terror/murder and installs US technocrats and economists as consultants....
You do realize that the "pure" phase of reforms (arguably the most Austrian phase) was by and large a failure, not only because the only way it could be sustained was through massive authoritarian structures of terror but because there was little GDP growth (late 70s and early 80s) and a full scale collapse that pushed 50% of the population back under the poverty line in like 83 or 84.
Anyway, end thread derail, if someone wants to debate Chile let's do it elsewhere.
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140
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Economy / Economics / Re: Countries that followed the Austrian School to Prosperity
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on: July 28, 2011, 02:16:34 AM
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hoooly shit. i can't believe JohnDoe is seriously pointing to Chile as a free market success story. Are all libertarians creeping authoritarian fascists or just this one? (yes yes, I know you're not all secret authoritarians, but really there need to be more AnCaps in this thread denouncing Chile wholeheartedly as it is about as far from a voluntary society as you can get) For god's sake I realize that a dictatorship is a "smaller government" than a democracy, but each step towards smallness is not the same folks. You are as bad as Communists that defend Stalin or Mao.
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