Great chart! Hope it's right. We'll see if the trend continues...

Be ready to hold 2+ years before we break above 30k?

Mate, this was not a mistake and Lazlo himself doesn't consider it as the biggest mistake of his life. I have watched his interview and he said he's not regretting his actions. He has embedded his name in bitcoin as long as bitcoin lasts, as the first man to make a bitcoin transaction.
Also consider this;
As at when Lazlo bought his pizza, btc was worth about $0.004 and 10,000 of it should be about $41. So, it still easy for anyone to buy two pizzas with $41. Even if he didn't spend it for pizza, eventually he would have blown it on other things.

That's why sometimes it's important to use concrete metrics instead of broad terms like "adoption". For example, we can look at Bitcoin's usage for consumer transactions and compare it to use of Visa, or compare how much people hold Bitcoin and how much people hold gold or other assets that are traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation. Also the volumes are also important - so here we can look at Bitcoin's share in investment portfolios, volume of consumer payments, etc.

First, Bitcoin will never get to 100% adoption, of course. Similar to cash vs cards, not everyone is living in a cashless society, and it will never happen. People will always use cash for different reasons.

Let's try to estimate where it is today.

Current population is about 8 million

There are about 800 thousand active Bitcoin addresses. Of course there are users that are not moving their coins which are not counted here, but also there are probably more than one active address per user, so those might even out.

That's about 0.001%

I reckon the real number is around that level, considering the whole world.

What do you mean by "100% mass adoption"? When all people in the world switch to Bitcoin? Then it would just be "share of global population that uses Bitcoin". Or is it percentage of some theoretical maximum of Bitcoin adoption? And what do you mean by adoption? Does it mean owning any amount of Bitcoin? Or does it only count if you regularly use it as a currency?

Good afternoon, I would like to show some calculations and analyzes based on the active addresses of bitcoin, halving, rewards and price. And from that, design a price for the end of the cycle.

Let's go now for an onchain analysis, analyzing active addresses, Bitcoin prices, halving and my psychedelic thinking.
I will take it easy and I will detail everything so that understanding is easier, because if you get lost on the way, it will be difficult to understand.
First of all, everyone knows that every 4 years BTC halving takes place, which the first was in 2012, then 2016 and 2020, and with each halving the BTC reward decreases by half (2012 -25btc, 2016 -12 , 5btc, 2020 -6.25 bt.

After that introduction, let's go to the calculations, in August 2012 btc was worth 10 dollars and had 221,404 addresses(wallets) active, dividing that number we have a GV( acronym I invented) 221,404 / 10 = 22.1k, at the end of the discharge cycle in 2013, a year after halving, the price was $ 900 and there were 677,484 active addresses, we then have a GV of 677,484 / 900 = 752, dividing the 2012 GV by the 2013 GV we have 29, remembers the reward number ? We then have 29 GV | 25 (2012 reward).

In August 2016 - we have 2,498,538 active addresses and a price of 611 dollars, with a GV: 4089, in December 2017 - 6,279,188 active addresses and a price of 19,179, 6,279,188 / 19,179 = G. Remember the other Bitcoin reward number? 12.5 * - *

In August 2020 — we have 5,092,567 active addresses and a price of $ 11,700, 5,092,567 / 11,700 we have a GV of 435, the number of addresses of the year of halving pro pico da alta is usually double , so we have a total of 10,200,000 addresses on average, remembers the reward numbers, the GV of the peak of the high is usually the GV of the halving divided by the number of the reward, that is , 435 / 6.25 = 69.6.

Finally, we took the number of active addresses of 10,000,000 and divided it by the value 69.6 to deduct a supposed high value between December and January, which would give 143k.
Adjusting some variables, we have an average of 120k to 143k dollars at least for the end of the bitcoin rise in this cycle.

There are many other analyzes, which have different objectives, the main ones are to know even the moment that we are in the btc cycle in order to enhance profitability. Remember, don't try to guess the price of btc, but have a long-term thought, and invest a bigger money just in the pessimistic moments where smart money comes in.
att FakerBTC, soon more psychedelic thoughts for btc.

In the medium are the images proving the price of bitcoin at the time and the active addresses, the website was used https://glassnode.com.
My contact:
https://medium.com/@fakerbtc/btc-fakeradress-ef78e0682236
https://twitter.com/fakerbtc

This thread gives the best of the value difference between years. The same level of variation could happen after years. After this same time period we can see similar level of growth. The same is being mentioned through a small meme post.

Although Bitcoin might achieve more value in the short run, it is guaranteed to be worthless someday. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, and may not for centuries, but eventually, it will be worthless, and we can’t predict when that will be. Gold will continue to have value unless something very unexpected happens.

Are you an astrology expert or something?
I've never seen someone to make analysis of the Bitcoin price based on zodiac signs.
We already know that it is almost impossible for the Bitcoin price to hit 1 million dollars.You just need common sense and basic understanding of economy and finance.There's no need to be expert in astrology or numerology in order see this conclusion.
Why don't you create a horoscope for Bitcoin?That would be interesting.
I guess that the future of Bitcoin is aligned by the stars.Everything is determined and we are all a bunch of puppets that have no agency and autonomy.The stars are what controls our lives,so we have to trust the astrologists more than any other experts and scientists.

It's greediness to keep holding your tokens when price is surging, many made the mistake in last bullrun season of 2017 and after February 2018 bears attacked the market dragging every single coins and tokens to its feet, Bear market is always the best time to buy coins and build portfolio and Bull market is the best time to make gains and take profits