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Hey guys.. sorry to let you wait for so long but i got a crapload of stuff to do that is currently way more important than virtualminer. I think i can find enough time to finish the needed changes on monday so i can reopen it monday evening or tuesday (CET)
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I exist, just had a shit load of things happen all at once.
On top of that, the whole network on the OS fucked up. I haven't had time to even look into the issue.
All Bitcoins are safe, and will be refunded as soon as possible.
I think I'm going to move the wallet.dat to another computer so everyone can get refunded.
Anyways, just wanted to let everyone know that I didn't just run away.
THats ok, just take your time :0) |
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... but there IS a correlation..
A correlation prooves nothing. The statistics I have learned allows to say if there is no correlation then it is pretty sure not related. Population and temperature is correlated as well, so lets kill some people for a better climate! We can´t safely predict the weather for more than 3 days, but climate for the next centuries?
We're not talking about the weather. Here we talk about climate. True and we can predict that? Use the same technique on weather or stocks and your done. Look at the math inside the computer climate models. It is pure crystal orb contemplation.
Its just the vast amount of variables that really makes the job hard..
If you look into the climate models you will see a lot that is certainly not crystal orb contemplation. True so true, but one "crystal orb" is enough to make the result void. Tuning those parameters (you call them variable) until the wanted result appears, is what I consider cheating. AS i said, climate reflects large scale cycles and not so much irregularities or pseudo random events if you take a reasonable timescale. Weather is pure "randomness" - as are the stockmarkets. Also noone is predicting future climate, noone sane would ever try to. Our current models cant even simulate the known past well enough to be considered good for predicting. But with the error margin known for remodeling the past scenarious can be created for the future. Sorry if it sounds like talking down on you - i really dont want to do that, but you must be sure you know your vocabulary. Weather is not climate and predictions are not scenarios. We can predict weather to a certain degree, but as you know with a high error for more than three days - simulating climate or creating scenarios is totally different. Noone tells you it will be 3K warmer in 100years, scenarios tell you it MIGHT be between 2K and 5K warmer in roughly 100years IF certain parameters wont change or worsen. Also the models for climate modelling are changed every few years at the moment, each time they get better or at least higher in resolution and take more parameters into account, but normally they show quite the same results which is NOT a result of cheating or tampering with parameters to make them fit.. |
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No one really knows what they are doing, and humans are fallible and subject to biases.
Well.. in paleoclimatics we mostly know what we are doing. It would be a lie to say that we know everything we do, but at least "understanding" the past works. Applying it on todays systems is hard due to the human impact. So whats the deal with the clouds when modeling thousands or millions of years in the past? Without humans or satellites taking records (I think insolation is the term) they seem like a big unknown. Not sure about the inner workings of many models, but as far as i know clouds tend to be neglected or just described very very roughly. That happens due to the scale of climate models. Clouds are very short "events" in time and show as far as i know pretty constant insulation patterns over longer timeframes. So one cloud cannot be computed, but if you know the average cloudiness of an area in a year or 5 or 10 you can compute with such constants. Climate models mostly work with timeframes of 5yr+ - many that i know even only for 50yr+ intervals. So if you compute 50yrs a few clouds dont create much problems... Also the area observed or simulated is important. Many models work on big scale cells. Europe, for example, is often divided into 200x200 cells - which is a very coarse resolution. Of course, higher resolution is possible but due to the many variables used highly imprecise in simulation. Also Insulation is especially driven by a very few variables that are well understood: astronomical cycles (see milankovic cycles) and water/ice movements. Those impose strong signals that make clouds, if they arent part of special circumstances, quite neglectible. But i am not a pro on this topics.. |
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Remember its not just those few people that run arround IPCC meetings that make climate science. There are thousands of scientists worldwide doing climate stuff and only the loudest part - the most annoying most of the time - are those getting media attention and therefore access to journals like PNAS, Science or Nature.. you must have either something groundbreaking or really really (publicly) interestering to get into those.. if you are jsut someone who works with that stuff youre normally not politically orientated and do your work..
sorry if i get too "excited" here but when doing climate research you often enough have to listen to the argument that youre either bought by the oil companies or the other side... but truth is: most people are not as biased as media makes the crowds think..
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No one really knows what they are doing, and humans are fallible and subject to biases.
Well.. in paleoclimatics we mostly know what we are doing. It would be a lie to say that we know everything we do, but at least "understanding" the past works. Applying it on todays systems is hard due to the human impact. There is an exceptional amount of noise in climate data due to overlapping cycles and black swan events.
Oh there is? I dont really know much about that noise. D18O is quite a strong proxy - most of the time correlating to milancovic cycles, not really giving any noise. If you look at CRU and other recent datasets they are also quite good... It becomes noise or very imprecise if you goo very far back or into the closer past.. thats true. But for the times that matter much of the data is very good.. This REQUIRES subjectivity to interpret, so the field is unusually subject to bias.
Yes and No.. But most of the analyses are done with statistical methods so that the subjective interpretation of raw data shouldnt matter much. The overall interpretation is normally clear enough to not to be prone to human biases. If D18O shows warm climate, palm trees were growing and CaCO3 did accrete you can pretty much say: Yes it was warm.. Also peer review is a nice measure against bias.. Add in the obvious political consequences and you should trust the findings even less.
See above. ALso political consequences are always quite over estimated. You pretty sure know your governments.. Getting funding is not easy, especially in a young field with a few top-scientists that see things the same way and review grants according to their own biases.
What about the normal grants from institutions like NSF, DFG and others? Normally they arent granting just because a topic is sexy.. also its normally not just a few top-scientists who decide.. |
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Which holds only true for exactly that period of time, thus pretty irrelevant for any kind of proof.
Thats wrong. You can check the data from GRIP, NORTHGRIP and similar projects for at least 100k years.. CO2 has been raising and sinking for a while, but when looking at the Eemian, the previous interglacial one cannot see the high raise of CO2 that we have today. So yes, this raise of CO2 is special - but it is hard to say how much it in fact influences the climate, but there IS a correlation.. In fact temperature started rising before industrial revolution came along.
That is right, but as said above.. its hard to judge if this change we have now is still "natural". Milancovic cycles as well as the Eemian would suggest a warming - yet none that is as rapid as the one we have at the moment. Looking at the fossil records there are only very few examples of such rapid climate changes in the Quaternary, and those were afaik(!) all related to events. We can´t safely predict the weather for more than 3 days, but climate for the next centuries?
We're not talking about the weather. Here we talk about climate. If a reliable extrapolation method existed, it would be used on stock exchanges.
The stock exchange is, as stupid as it sounds, much more chaotic than any climate patternsince chaotic factors like human behaviour isnt part of the climate. There are some good models for climate but so far none was possible to 100% model the past - so there is no model that could predict the future. But that is why scientist talk about scenarios and not about predictions. Our crystal balls are as useless as everyone elses. Look at the math inside the computer climate models. It is pure crystal orb contemplation.
If you look into the climate models you will see a lot that is certainly not crystal orb contemplation. Its just the vast amount of variables that really makes the job hard.. 1.) It is more than just rocket science. Rockets are meanwhile very well understood while climate is not.
Rockets are now studied for almost 70 years whilst the climate is still a very young scientific topic. Sure, Milancovic was able to relate certain climatic fluctuations to astronomical influences, but true climatic modelling couldnt be done without the computing power we see today.. Give climate sciences some time.. if it is as old as rocket science much much more stuff will be known... |
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Hate to go public with such a thing - and i guess you have your reasons.. but i paid 1.4 Bitcoins the other day for a deal on DCS and did not receive the game or a refund.. i also got no answers on PMs.. so.. time to rant a bit.
Mate, you are normally very reliable, what happened??
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Domain is back up, got my refunds from paypal.. now back to finishing up some things and then one big step into BETA again...
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Alright... saturday is not gonna happen. I got an E-mail telling me that the transfer will be postponed till 1/31st due to the nature of all that happened.. seems like my old host still has a firm grip on his registered domains so they have to wait if he rejects my authorisation for the transfer.. fair enough if it things werent that fucked up ><
Currently i am redoin some stuff locally.. i gonna strip the exchange from the game and put them into the newly created website - first off all the possible ui for the exchange looks better and its easier to maintain multiple modules than one largish one.. stay tuned for some more changes... lets see whn you all will be able to see them though ><
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Übers Ohr hauen, glaube ich nicht. Den das Geld ist ja schon bei Ebay, muss nur noch auf Auszahlung warten. Habe ja erst nach dem Eingang des Geldes verschickt.
...bis er es zurückverlangt, da bei ihm ja nie ein Artikel eingegangen ist... |
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Klingt als wolle er dich übers Ohr hauen. Ebay Username? Vielleicht ist der ja bekannt..
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Ok.. and another update.. i got the game's wallet back as well as the domain.. I will try to get the game back online by Saturday.. cant promise though...
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Hab gute Erfahrungen mit spendbitcoins gemacht.. Dort die BTC auf Paypal überweisen lassen -> Auszahlen, danke.
Gerade bei kleineren Geldmengen eindeutig günstiger als Gox oder (idR auch) BTCE
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Hi,
Ich suche eine Wii, die nach möglichkeit einen Homebrew channel hat bzw mit Sicherheitskopien umgehen kann und soweit wie möglich technisch in Ordnung ist. Angebote bitte im Thread.
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Update:
Talked to the ICANN registrar for one of my domains and got told that the owner of that company that hosted my vps "is gone" and "most likely not to return". So far i could create authcodes for one of my domains, one domain is already and transit and another one is about to be transfered to me. Once i have these codes i gonna register with a new VPS provider. A paypal case against 1web.de is filed to refund me my 4 months of payment that i did in advance, chances are low to get those funds back though.
So things are.. running
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May add:
Bought there something as well, shipping was fast, price fair.
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Sort of news.. So as i came back home an hour ago i started looking up whats happening. Seems www.x-isp.de is down, thats the address of my provider.. same with odac.de which is the site where i can control the my domains and IPs. The VPS is UP.. i can connect to it by entering the ip directly BUT i cannot give you an a.b.c.d/virtualminer since its not configured that way. Therefore i have to declare the game as "temporarily down" since noone can enter... Currently i look for a new VPS provider since its not only virtualminer that is affected but also a more important project i host there - as well as the page for Tenebrix that i host for Lolcust.. Once the server is back up or rather reachable again i will revert the game to beta till the stupid exchange is fixed... |
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Well.. Unforseen things are a bitch. I am not at home or near any computer and my vps provider did "something" x-ISP seems to be as down as my vps.... About reverting to beta: thats what i will do once and if the ISP turns up again..
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Ad-blocker and popup blocker.. that is interestering. THAT was so far never a problem.. mind to tell me what softwares you used? It's another FAQ item ,0)
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