we just see the tip of the iceberg.
Just the tip? Promise? she said |
|
|
|
Time.
Depends on when you look for the permanent upward trend, what time scale, from start, until now.. well there is...
from now into future could well be... you can cherry pick to show periods of down trend in the Bitcoin timescale if you want , to get whatever result you are looking for though.
MtGox does not equal Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is not Mt Gox, also maybe some of us simply have a different analysis and have a different idea of what will happen with MtGox, and if or if not a particular event would prove to be that important over a timescale of the next year, two years... so that does not make them, stupid, it just means they may have different opnion, or maybe a different risk tolerance than you do.
also I think you give to much credence to the idea that someone spreading some "good btc news or vibes" or bad for that matter make a huge whole lot of difference
If you look at the entire history of bitcoin bubble-cycle, then the next bubble will always drop to the point where the previous bubble reached. And with this quarterly timescale, you can see that the risen demand in China made the price go up, and now this demand is gone without a substitute. So, no mater what period I observe, I see that the right place should be around 200-300$. MtGox is not Bitcoin, but MtGox IS A BIG PART OF THE BITCOIN MARKET! How can this be so hard to understand? If people are saying that the market is turning up, without knowing the outcome with MtGox, then they are either stupid or they are lying. When it turns out that MtGox is insolvent, then the press won't cover how people lost their money trusting MtGox. MtGox is not the hot subject here, the press will talk how people lost their money investing in bitcoin. How bitcoin is just a play money, manipulated by guys who run places like MtGox. And that will scare away any new investor with a half a brain, because he can see that there are actually no regulations that would keep his money safe, when trusting the bitcoin market system. That he would just have to invest in blind faith, and only fools do that. Ok , circles , I do not agree with your analysis regarding MT Gox, lets revist this in two weeks time ok? cool |
|
|
|
Ok... so stock markets look healthy atm, all must be well then in the market place then?
Gold and Silver, little rally last few days, but been quite low for quite some time, so they must not be worth much...
Sorry to bore you, but no gun to your head old chap, so if you do not want to read hit ignore, with all respect.
Happy to discuss otherwise, without asking you not to post
I don't think that the stock market looks very healthy at the moment. There are also many uncertainties, and that's not considered healthy. Healthy is the market where there is little chance of bad surprises. It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox return it's customers $ and BTC. It's hard to imagine how someone could be this stupid, so I bet they are just manipulating the market and motivating the sheep to buy, so they can sell themselves. Time. Depends on when you look for the permanent upward trend, what time scale, from start, until now.. well there is... from now into future could well be... you can cherry pick to show periods of down trend in the Bitcoin timescale if you want , to get whatever result you are looking for though. MtGox does not equal Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is not Mt Gox, also maybe some of us simply have a different analysis and have a different idea of what will happen with MtGox, and if or if not a particular event would prove to be that important over a timescale of the next year, two years... so that does not make them, stupid, it just means they may have different opnion, or maybe a different risk tolerance than you do. also I think you give to much credence to the idea that someone spreading some "good btc news or vibes" or bad for that matter make a huge whole lot of difference |
|
|
|
Well we agree all but on the one point then... (in bold)
With that point I do not agree that is the case, the entire market dispite these recent newses developments i.e China, Mtgox,code bug vs code feature, is stronger than it has ever been.... with more backing and interest than it has ever had... more regulatory clarity than it has ever had around the globe.. more investment and more users than it has ever had... and also it is still standing.. these are all very good signs.... the money is invested and is seeding and fruiting now already, the regulations are being written, the ecosystem built, the users and belivers are all talking and eventually even their grans are going to have Bitcoin walllets if they want them or not (in my family anyway) so it is those wheels in motion as we speak, right now that money, those devs, that work, the plans, the work of lawsky and co on the regs, all of these things are occuring right now.. as I type. So it is that coupled with an understanding of the power of network effect, coupled with the fact that I do not see Mt Gox taking down Bitcoin, I do not see the malleability issue doing so either, I do not see it being banned, so in the mid term I cannot see any reason wy it would go down in price either.. thats my point... I think that the problems will get less as the ecosystem develops which it is doing so, and as soon as Lawsky & Co do their thing, and the legal picture is clear , then the projects will spring up everywhere (some are already in dev now ,and some will start once regs are clearer) and the ecosystem will spring up super quick, and some of the big players that spring up next, will be in the public domain for decades.. These developments are happening right now they are the foundations... they have been poured, and they are now just getting ready to set.
Do you consider that last year the price at $1100+ was unstable and to high, and that we have just had "bitcoin going lower"
Else, what is your ideal figure I wonder? and why ?
With that point I do not agree that is the case, the entire market dispite these recent newses developments i.e China, Mtgox,code bug vs code feature, is stronger than it has ever been.... with more backing and interest than it has ever had...
Please don't make these long and boring speeches on how strong you think that the market is. I can see how "strong" the market is by looking at how "well" it preforms. Only time when the price has any momentum to go upwards is right after an major fall. I don't work in a way that "encouraging words about the strength of bitcoin will keep my faith". I can see that the only reason why bitcoin price hasn't plummeted yet is because of "the cult of hodling" and the ASIC market. I see that the main reason is that miners payed good money for their ASICs, that won't bring in any ROI with these prices. So, this is a desperate hold and it can't last like that forever. Over time, miners are cutting their losses and selling their mining equipment and coins cheap. This will eventually trigger the hodlers to sell also, and that is the final end of this stupid and overly stretched dead cat bounce. Really... thats how you tell how well the market is performingOk... so stock markets look healthy atm, all must be well then in the market place then? Gold and Silver, little rally last few days, but been quite low for quite some time, so they must not be worth much... Sorry to bore you, but no gun to your head old chap, so if you do not want to read hit ignore, with all respect. Happy to discuss otherwise, without asking you not to post |
|
|
|
Half way through, it is a nice read.. I agree with what he is saying about the next layers, in fact I already invested in Nxt, Mastercoin,Protoshares already last year, and soon to be eMunie too I think also want to chck out Ethereum, looks like missed the boat on Counterparty, though I do not know much of them yet... I never really mention the alts on this thread though... I do think that there is some good potential with these DAC's thanks for the link... back to it.
|
|
|
|
I think your two goals are kind of at odds with each other...as soon as there is a hint that there is more stability and more "markets" lets say exchanges improved ecosystem and adoption growth and clearer regs etc.. as soon as the market gets (even more of) a whiff of that then , the price will go up to price it in, not down, unless "they" manipulate the exchanges to get a better price to buy in at...hmmm
Yes, that's the point. Investing into BTC is only attractive if there is a reason for the high price or the price would be low enough. When the price is high without a reason, other then desperation of fanatics, then it's not a good investment. News I care about are:a) Opening/Closing of markets b) Changes in legislation c) BTC code Rest of the news don't mean much to me when speculating the price. During the previous period a,b and c have only been negative. So, to me, there is no rational reason for the price to be much over then it was before the China boom. It's not the first time when markets are not rational and hold the price up by fanatics or manipulators. And this kind of irrational market, that is held up by pillars that are on a verge of breaking, is a big no-no as an investment opportunity. The price has to rest on a more solid base then on "will of the HODLERS", or it has to create real increase in demand. Either one has to happen to shock this 2 month old dead cat to life. It could of already have been in a slow and stable uptrend if the market would have been more rational and finished the "loss of China" crash without denial. It's stupid because it only wastes time.. Well we agree all but on the one point then... (in bold) With that point I do not agree that is the case, the entire market dispite these recent newses developments i.e China, Mtgox,code bug vs code feature, is stronger than it has ever been.... with more backing and interest than it has ever had... more regulatory clarity than it has ever had around the globe.. more investment and more users than it has ever had... and also it is still standing.. these are all very good signs.... the money is invested and is seeding and fruiting now already, the regulations are being written, the ecosystem built, the users and belivers are all talking and eventually even their grans are going to have Bitcoin walllets if they want them or not (in my family anyway) so it is those wheels in motion as we speak, right now that money, those devs, that work, the plans, the work of lawsky and co on the regs, all of these things are occuring right now.. as I type. So it is that coupled with an understanding of the power of network effect, coupled with the fact that I do not see Mt Gox taking down Bitcoin, I do not see the malleability issue doing so either, I do not see it being banned, so in the mid term I cannot see any reason wy it would go down in price either.. thats my point... I think that the problems will get less as the ecosystem develops which it is doing so, and as soon as Lawsky & Co do their thing, and the legal picture is clear , then the projects will spring up everywhere (some are already in dev now ,and some will start once regs are clearer) and the ecosystem will spring up super quick, and some of the big players that spring up next, will be in the public domain for decades.. These developments are happening right now they are the foundations... they have been poured, and they are now just getting ready to set. Do you consider that last year the price at $1100+ was unstable and to high, and that we have just had "bitcoin going lower" Else, what is your ideal figure I wonder? and why ? |
|
|
|
Sell me some cheap coins then please : )
Sold my coins couple of weeks ago, but I want to see BTC as an good investment again! 2 things would attract me to buy back in:a) Opening of new markets with solid volume in new geographical locations. b) Sudden price drop to an more secure level. As I can see, then no development has been done to market bitcoin in south- or central-America. Regions where it could truly flourish. So, my realistic hope, in coming back into the game, is that the price drops to a more secure level. Desperation of fanatics doesn't feel secure at all. If you are looking for pure fanatics you maybe in the correct thread, desperation is optional as is dignity - sounds a little like some dates I have had in the past.. Anyway. I think your two goals are kind of at odds with each other...as soon as there is a hint that there is more stability and more "markets" lets say exchanges improved ecosystem and adoption growth and clearer regs etc.. as soon as the market gets (even more of) a whiff of that then , the price will go up to price it in, not down, unless "they" manipulate the exchanges to get a better price to buy in at...hmmm The other ingredients to your pie just need to be time and patience methinks... unless there is bad newses as in new newses, then the sudden drop you are looking for has already just happened... we may of course get another, but then we may not... and if we do I would not imagine it staying there too long...and I would hope not too.... but from here now if the train stays on the tracks, then the more secure level you talk about may well be a price upwards from here, the fundamentals are all still the same as they were 1, 2, 6, 12 months ago.. the only difference being, if anything the different fundamentals have all had a bit of a testing and have proven quite sturdy so far which scores them a few more points, an it looks very much like the trend from here is growth, in investment, infrastructure/ecosystem, awareness, user numbers, vendors that accept BTC etc etc.. and those trends all look as if they are all going to continue and most of them will all be doing their own advertsing and devdelopment too.. another few cranks of that rachet , and we are going to see more action in the price. So becareful trying to catch that bottom. Just my opinions and I tend not to do desperate  |
|
|
|
With these volumes the current "uptrend" won't last very long. Like I said before, a crash is needed to stimulate trade. Stop being greedy and make the coins cheaper, so they would look attractive to other people as well. This shit's chess, it ain't checkers. Stop being a  . Or you will be back in your cave, all alone, playing with your precious.. Sell your coins to save bitcoin! Sell me some cheap coins then please : ) |
|
|
|
Because (most of) the guys that buy on localbitcoins are not set up to trade on Mtgox - validation, sending over fiat etc... it is not a quick set up at best of times, and at the moment.... no point in sending BTC as they are instantly devalued as you send them there, until you can get them out, so unless you send them there when at value of $350 and you are hoping they tank to $250 - so all in all useless unless you have fiat there already its a no go.. there are things like BitcoinBuilder where you can play a little and stil get 30% market discount as of right now... |
|
|
|
Can everyone just remember there is a human being at the other end of these messages
+1
I take exception to that! Ha Ha ! This made my day : ) I am sure Creekbore meant no offence old robot ChartBuddy. |
|
|
|
Ok, i´m turning bull now. That MtGox breakout convinced me that we are in a bull market right now. My first step will be to transfer 50k $ to MtGox, to get some cheap coins while they last, after that i´m transferin all my BTC to BTC-E and use it to go all in FTC , that 1700 BTC buy wall over there is proof enough that it will go to the moon. End of the story will be that i´m even more rich in about 2 weeks, i´m lookin forward to it.  does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute does not compute This terminal will self destruct in 10, 9 , 8 .......  Fonzi trap?  |
|
|
|
I will be happy, and count it as a success, if bitcoin becomes a viable and attractive alternative to credit cards for legal international payments via internet.
I can agree with that statement if you omit legal. Legal isn't equivalent to moral and in many cases is the opposite. I'm not sure why we should judge anything by whether or not it is legal. I agree that "legal" is not "moral" and often opposite to it. But I am not a libertarian -- I believe that government, laws, taxes, etc. are necessary, we must fight to improve them, not to abolish them. So what I meant is: if bitcoin will only (or mostly) be used for illegal activities, I wiill not consider it as being a success. Not that I think that to be very likely, though. Given Silk Road and all that, I would say that bitcoin is worse than banks for those purposes... "Balaji Srinivasan at Startup School 2013" is a glimpse of the future, in my opinion. This is relevant to your post. I hope you take the time to watch. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOubCHLXT6AA great watch!! thanks for that..  |
|
|
|
Personally I welcome Jorge's presence here, he is a benign character and takes a different and thoughtful view.
He has tried to look at trends from different angles and has spent a lot of time watching for behaviors that can be of use to us all - whether we are sceptics, or believers.
OK,. in my opinion, he isn't always right and he does see the problems we have adding up to a prognosis which is (on balance, from his POV) not likely to succeed.
However, he is not a troll, his posts are thoughtful and I always read his stuff.
So, I am sorry chaps - better ten Jorges than one Fonzie anyday.
Bom dia, Jorge - keep it up, but expect many (including me) to disagree with you.
I think it was Voltaire who is supposed to have said: "I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it."
Yes, I agree with you. However, trolls like Fonzie can be easily ignored because he is a nobody and more importantly a self-professed troll.. in short, nobody takes him seriously. The problem I see with Jorge is that he is an educated and accomplished person which lends force to his opinions. However, it seems he has not taken the time to properly inform himself about the subject which he is pontificating on. Which makes him much more of a danger than people like Fonzie. I welcome Jorge but I ask that he moderate his negative view until he has a better understanding and until he has some way to substantiate the basis for his negative views. But I must admit, I do like Jorge and I hope that he stays with us in the forums. + 1 |
|
|
|
As an experiment ... go to Google trends....
Thanks for the links. The peaks seem to match significnt changes in price and the growth of the "market". Interesting too. Are those numbers complete (e.g. could the Chinese be downloading the software from a local source not counted in those graphs?) My picture of the typical Huobi client is a low or middle-class person, who does not understand English, has no programming knowledge, and keeps his bitcoins in his Huobi account. He cannot use bitcoins to pay for things in China and does not usually travel outside the country. Would he need to download the software and/or create a private wallet in order to open an account at Huobi? Yes it is interesting and I think that we will see the correlation stick for some time and also the trend increase to continue to grow with higer peaks as the network effect takes effect..and as adoption and interest and users and new and awareness grows, along with the legal situaiton and the ecosystem, then the peaks will get higher both in trend charts user numbers and eventually... price.. I imagine the figures are not complete. Yes the could be downloading client locally as could people in the US not sure exactly how these figures are complied either. No to downloading a client to trade on Huboi And as to what you imagine the average Chinese bitcoin user to be ... I think that whilst the demographic you suggest does exist- there will be a large number of users that are in Beijing and in Shangahi on the bund in their offices, multilingual , affluent and very interested/invested in Bitcoin and that is not me guessing... I know..and I also know a lot of UK expats living in China that also are interested in Bitcoin. I am curious, in a few months when Lawsy and co release their regs, and maybe offer Bitlicense, and if it does not stifle Bitcoin, which at the moment it looks and sound as if they are going to go light touch... and then a large well established set of services and exchanges set up and it gets marketing pushes from various sources.. and even maybe makes it to the superbowl ads one day .. or some such.. would you reconsider your point of view then? Also you mention Paypal, well the guy behind Paypal is an interesting chap.. do you know anything about him and the Paypal story? |
|
|
|
|
Fonz .Nope... just countering with solid points... what are the fundamental reasons Bitcoin will fail and we will not see another few cycles of the network effect? growing adoption/user numbers and awareness, a stronger and more trusted ecosystem, a clearer regulatory path?
It is also a very useful and cheap service ... people like useful and cheap.. and soon it will most likely be, established, safe , cheap and effective... which will only help its cause more.. so what stands in the way that will not make the price go higher in light of these factors?
Jorge said it himself, supply and demand so what happens when there is more demand than supply? which it looks very much like there will be over the next (Edit) few years as the factors I mention above play out and come to reality..
They are all valid quesitons right? because this is the reply to why should be belive that prices will go over $700
|
|
|
|
To date Bitcoin has for many been one of the best investments in human history, monetarily.
Sigh. Bitcoin was an excellent investment, in hindsight - for those who bought before nov/2013 and will be smart enough to sell before it collapses. But, in hindsight, buying lottery tickets was much better investment - for those who bought the winning tickets. Bitcoin has been a terrible investment for those who bought in late november, or since january. Bitcoin is still a terrible investment, because there is no reason to believe that the price will increase, and several reasons for which it may decrease. No stock trader cares for, or even cares to know, the past history of the price of a stock. One cannot use ancient price history to justify a claim of future price increase. Indeed, resorting to that argument only highlights the lack of any real justification for that claim. The cause for the increase from 17$ to 1200$ is obvious: the opening of the Chinese market by BTC-China, OKCoin and Huobi. That was basic economics: larger market, fixed supply = higher price. What event is expected to happen that could propel the price much higher than 700$? I do not want to change anyone's mind here. Adults have the right to spend their money anyway they like -- investing in risky ventures like bitcoin, poker, or lottery tickets, or even throwing it away. And they have the right to try to convince anyone to do the same -- as long as they honestly warn him of all the risks and unknowns, without fallacious arguments or unfounded promises. Gambling with your money is OK, scamming other people is not. You are quite right, larger markets and a fixed supply increases the price. But how many people do you think use Bitcoin Worldwide? I would hazard a guess and say a little over a million. Now say bitcoin really becomes (a little) mainstream and 5 million people use it. Say those 4 million new bitcoiners start to use it now with the recent drop. You don't think that will propel the price higher? With all the recent media coverage, let's assume that everyday 3600 new people start using bitcoin and everyone of those wants only 1 bitcoin. Now you have an increased demand of 350 (3600-newly mined bitcoins per day ~3251) bitcoin per day. Now, the average bitcoiner hodls to a certain degree, let's say 50% increase in value before selling (I know it's way higher than that, but hey...). Let's also assume that all exchanges run at the same optimal price (again, I know...) and that there are no bad news that rally a dump (...) . Then you have a demand of 350 per day or 127750 bitcoin per year left to satisfy, and that is with every miner out there selling his bitcoins instantly. Can you guess now why everyone says that the former logarithmic trendline will continue? I just thought you could use a little supply and demand mathematics. So the answer to your question of what event is needed to propel the price upwards is easy: time. and not even that much of it. Exactly , all I am waiting for here is a few more cycles of the network effect to kick in and for the ecosystem to grow a little more, the legal side to get more clear (all of which appear are happening as we speak) and then we are going to see more growth in price... this whole thing has only just begun, personally I think this is quite obvious. |
|
|
|
Is this real? What is this??
The license plates should give you the answer  The plane flying into a bridge and that you have never heard of it should give you the answer... Sorry cough ... I mean yes this happened... do you want to buy some really rare coins?? PM me |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
