Aand deepbit's down.  So much for my market intelligence.  Should have been monitoring multiple pools I guess...

That's what they WANT you to think.  If they actually wanted to liquidate they'd just take a dump on the buy orders.  This is The Manipulator, he's back!  After taking a monstrous assblasting at $8 and $6 he's ready to try again at $4, as I predicted.   He just wants cheap bitcoins.  BUY BUY BUY.

Seriously though, 6k coins is about current daily mined volume, or only $24k.  It's nothing.

Legal action?  Really?  Legal action?

I'd love to see the contracts CH has with his 9 buddies.  What kind of compensation was exchanged in return for entering into those contracts?  Internet funbucks are great and all (especially if it's 1.2 million internet fun bucks that the guy issuing later claims can't be redeemed), but I wonder if those contracts would ever be enforceable.  For a contract to be valid a reasonable person must be capable of understanding the terms.  Any half-competent lawyer could spin the byzantine SC "architecture" into verbal spew complex enough to make it look like the scam it is.  If one of the 9 destroys what little value SC has there won't be enough money in the ecosystem to pay the kind of ninja lawyer that could make what looks like a scam contract stand up.

Then there's the whole jurisdiction thing.  What I said is valid in the US, international law may be different.

IMO going "all in" is another horrible strategy.  TA, which you appear to practice, is simply a way of estimating probabilities of direction over timeframe.  If you go all in and you're wrong you have no outs.   A single fundamental event outside your control could destroy your ability to play another hand. 

In other words, that poker-inspired strategy is just as bad as buy-and-hold in a bear market.  Of course, nothing is as bad as a 100% all-in falling knife catch, but I don't believe anyone is dumb enough to do that.

I've been saying that we're not out of the denial phase myself.

At this point I'm seeing capitulation at $1.25.  It will be confirmed by a crash in deepbit hash rates.   A 20% reduction in hash rates from the peak is not capitulation, that's just a few bulls turning bear early.  If we keep slowly leaking hash rates and price instead I'll adjust my capitulation target accordingly.   If we somehow lose 80% of the hash rate at $3 instead I'll adjust my bottom call upward.

We shouldn't see capitulation until the long thanksgiving weekend and/or christmas and/or new years.  Longs have been severely punished during long holiday weekends in the past and if that repeats during end of year holiday season we may finally be done with the bubble deflating phase.

So far my calling the previous $4.20 support a new resistance (and by extension this month's stagnation target) level has been more or less correct.  The big question is: how low will it drop next month?  Even with a 10% difficulty drop we're still pretty close to power cost for most miners, a $1 drop could result in losing massive hashing power for months while difficulty adjusts.

And this, kids, is the first honest admission of a failed trader.  Also the reason we're still at $4.  Sunk cost fallacy in full swing.  Miners are investing their power bill, also not selling -- they're massively bullish on future price.   Those looking at unrealized losses are in the "denial" metal stage of post bubble.  The part where everyone convinces themselves to hold for the long term.

Saw it with my wife and her $80,000 in Lucent stock in 2001.  "It's down, I can't sell now." "It's just a correction." "Oh well, I'm in this for the long term, it'll recover." "I'm down more than 50%, that's a huge loss.  I'll be writing it off for years." "It can't go any lower, it's still a great company." "I'll just keep holding." "Ok, it's not worth selling now..."  "You trade garbage like this all day long, you deal with it.  I can't even look at this piece of shit any more." 

I thought it was a very good lesson.  $80k of unrealized gains may not be a lot of money for many, but for a 26 year old it would have been a *very* noticeable chunk of her yearly take home.  The ~$5k by the time she was ready to sell not so much.  Over the next decade she's become a much, much better trader and investor as a result.  Unfortunately, the tiny amounts people have invested in bitcoin won't be teaching the same kind of lesson I don't think.

The only ones with a NEED to buy are those who shorted on bitcoinica with a 5:1 margin.   They deserve their loss.  The rest of us can hedge our BTC sales by buying mining hardware if we choose to.  It's just that I feel there are way too many bitcoin bulls for $4.20 to be anything but a resistance level.

Besides, why do I care if I used to buy at $3 to sell at $3.30 and it jumps to $100 overnight?  I'll just buy at $100 to sell at $110.  Buy and hold is a *horrible* strategy in a bear market.

This part I agree with.  I don't think it'll be from $4 though...

Example:

12.10.11 11:03 Buy   0.00849   0.1   0.000849

That's right, someone bought .1 tenebrix to paint the chart and make it look like it's trending up.  It works, there's no way to see volume after it scrolls off the trade history.  These tiny, insignificant exchanges are tailor made for siphoning BTC from greedy and stupid shitcoin speculators.

SC may have more (fake?) hashing power, but TBX now has 10x the depth.  At its high TBX had 1880 bitcoins of depth.  And that's a scamcoin chain as well!

I think we've learned the greedier and scummier the derivative chain the shallower the market.   Some people are dumb enough to buy, but they're definitely in the minority.

Now the question is: how many BTC will the "SC rich" throw up on the exchanges to make it look like it's doing well?  And will those suckered into mining it yesterday be smart enough to cash out during the pump?

He could have bought from the ask side for .0088.  As you say, even .00001 SC would have painted that chart.  No, I just think that's someone being exceptionally stupid.

In the meantime if you're stuck on windows: download VirtualBox, download an ubuntu 64 bit livecd image, boot that and enjoy.  You'll be getting a few more mhash/sec than you would running a 32 bit cygwin binary. 

But someone is desperately trying to prop them up.  Now bidding .006 BTC per SC, with the next highest bid at .0031.  Could that possibly be any more transparent or any more amateur?  2.4 BTC worth. 

Because there are only 60 bitcoins up on bids on btce... woop as I was typing this, 30 were taken.  High bid .0031.

Stick a fork in this one, it's done.

20k blocks mined first day.  Assuming adoption picks up (and it would have without such bombshells) the generation rate would never "catch up" to difficulty rising.  We saw this early on.  The higher the difficulty went, the faster the block generation went.

Looks like the retarget rate was designed for this behavior.  

So instead of 3.5 years steady state you're probably expecting more like 6 months at call it a modest 8000 blocks/day average.

Had he disclosed the 13 mil premine I doubt we'd have seen anywhere near the same kind of adoption.  Hell, the bitcoin millionares were probably instructed to get EC2 to pump up the appearance of adoption with.   Ten98 was one of the top miners on squidnet.org, I think we can guess why now...

Managed to sell my SC windfall on btc-e.  When I started selling there were 80 BTC up for grabs, down to 64 now.

Managed to get out at .0085 BTC/SC on btce while everyone was discussing the magnitude of this scam.  Thanks for the free BTC.  There's still 70 BTC up for grabs if people are fast.

But he's more trustworthy than Visa, which is why he and his cronies deserve 10% of the network revenue in perpetuity, and a 13 million coin head start.  On top of whatever pittance the rest of the peasants propping up his scam get.

13 million premine, 10% tax, flood of coins during the first few days?   Constant lies (amount of pre-mine less than GG and Tenebrix?  Really?  In what world is 13 odd million < 7.7?), half-truths and misdirection?  Are you KIDDING me?  Why is anyone even debating whether this is in any way shape or form a scam or not?  There are no doubt even more pleasant surprises to be found when (or if?) the source is ever released.

You would have to be braindamaged to support this centralized, crony-driven cryptopyramid clusterfuck.  Why it's even allowed to advertise for free on a forum devoted to an open source, non-commercial, distributed crypto currency is beyond me.

Bring on Litecoin.  I'm support a scammer tag for CH 100%.

It's a sad day when the best thing you can say about your premine is it's less than the guy who thought grabbing 6 years worth of network capacity was a fair amount.  Of *COURSE* tenebrix has less capacity, you'd have to be a complete cretin to buy into that chain "long term."