Fixed that for you.

You mean at nearly $11.  Heck, if you dawdle too long $12 might be wishful thinking.  People are believers again, difficulty estimates are starting to creep back up.  $20/BTC by end of the month!

I've already ordered my helicopter and my yacht.  Just selecting the appropriate trophy wife now.

And then 20 by end of the month, with 100 by end of the year.  A million per btc by end of the decade.  I've paid for my hardware and power, now time to be GREEDY.  Bitcoin billions for everyone!

Well, I'm convinced enough to pull my sell orders.  We're overdue, let's have that rally!  Nothing but bulls and clear sailing ahead.  Make me feel smart about betting double or nothing.

I realize this is on the FAQ, but when whining about power used to run the bitcoin network have you considered the power used to run banks?  The gasoline used by bank tellers to commute every day?  The amount of industrial waste generated when producing armored cars, credit cards, deposit slips and even uniforms and guns for police acting as a deterrent to bank robbery?

Bitcoins are by far the most eco-friendly currency at the moment.  The amount of resources to support the entire bitcoin network is could very well be less than the total carbon footprint of a *SINGLE* bank branch office let alone something like the Citibank headquarters.

If your argument boils down to being green then you'd be a completely "unethical" hypocrite if you didn't convert all your conventional currency into bitcoin this instant.

Been ready for two weeks now, my staggered sell orders have been in place since the run up to $12.  Just waiting for your (and other bulls) funds to clear through Dwolla.  I (and the rest of my fellow miners) much prefer to sell coins for over $12 than under $10, so let's get on with it!

My trading strategy calls for a partial sale by Wed of next week no matter what the price, so a rally by then would be really awesome. 

I'm not sure you can take volumes at MtGox as a reliable proxy for number of coins having traded hands at the end of the day.  There's a lot of froth being caused by bots playing with each other as a result of reduced commissions.   And day traders are all on mtgox, since no other exchange has enough volume or volatility for anything over $1000 in play money.   I strongly doubt $73000 new dollars are finding their way to mtgox a day let alone 5-20x that.

Only the operator of mtgox has a clear picture of how many bitcoins vs how many dollars are being deposited as opposed to being taken out, and as a result what % of newly minted coins are being hoarded in comparison to the historic 80%+ levels.  I'm one of those jonny-come-lately miners, and I can tell you all I'm doing is depositing bitcoins and receiving dollars.  I have no reason to believe my behavior is atypical of the other 3/4 of the mining power.

What I think happened as a result of 3/4 mining power being added since June is a shift from a mining demographic content to hoard most and sell a small % to those of us wanting to sell most and hoard very little.  This IMO is not a bad thing.

His model showed a possible short term bottom in the 3s, with strong support at 5.80.  It also showed a possibility of $13 as a short term resistance.

Both of these scenarios were realized in a 48 hours from the time of the prediction.  As far as I'm concerned that's just uncanny, and a much better record than my ass which saw $5.80 as well, but not the $12 shortly thereafter.

For now there is another very fundamental difference in BTC vs gold.  The general populace and as an extension government agencies universally recognize gold as a valuable commodity with an undisputed cash value, and a theft of even $500 in gold will be given due consideration. 

Requesting investigation of theft or fraud ranging in the millions of $ worth of BTC is unlikely to end well for the victim.

It's just way too easy to make a mistake and lose substantial amounts of money with bitcoin in addition to that.  Gold won't instantly evaporate when your hard drive crashes, nor will letting someone take a snapshot of your house key mean they irretrievably and anonymously get posession of your gold. 

TL;DR: The safeguards for preservation of existing means of wealth don't apply to bitcoin, and that's a big issue when comparing BTC to other currencies or stores of value.

Everyone's aware of the press event and IMO we've already priced in a bunch of appreciation.  If there are no new slaves building the pyramid after the event we may be saying hello to $6 again.

I'm hoping for $12 before $6 myself.  Been mostly hoarding mined coins for 2 weeks now and I know I'm not alone.

Actually, difficulty DOES have an effect on price.  Think about it this way.  You are new to bitcoins and you want to be long some, with your choices being mine or to buy.  If you do the math on power costs and at current difficulty your cost to mine is $7/btc with a bitcoin appearing once every 3 days while cost to buy is $5.80/btc, where do you think BTC prices will go short term?

Conversely, if the BTC is selling for $32 but it costs you about $2.50 to mine it at currently difficulty with a coin appearing every day where do you think BTC prices will go for the next few months?

There are other secondary effects.  If I look at difficulty and it looks like I'll have an easier time coughing up coins in the coming 2 weeks than today then it makes little sense to hoard.  If it looks like difficulty is going to drop a *LOT* then yeah, fire sale time.

That said my barometer of difficulty is deepbit.  Deepbit was going up about 100 Ghash/day, then that slowed down to 50 Ghash/day, and is now holding about even at around 5400 gigahash.  I'll panic if I see that drop to 4000 (which could happen if we trade at below $7/btc for more than a few weeks).  Until then it still looks like smooth sailing.

It's nice to hope.  I've got sell orders staggered all the way up to 17.  I'd be borderline orgasmic if most or even all of them got taken.  I'm with you guys, let's all hope another benefactor comes in and feeds a few more hundred K to the bitcoin beast.  If price stagnates and God forbid difficulty starts a downward price cycle it won't be fun for any of us for quite a while.

It's shocking we had as much correlation as we had.

Everyone came to a concensus on a 5.80 as a rock solid resistence using our collective crystal balls, analytics, guts, asses and lo and behold that's exactly what happened.  You also called a relatively immediate $12, which my ass didn't see as likely at all.

So overall, excellent predictive results even though time frames don't seem to match up precisely.  If only we had derivatives which let us act on expected volatility.   Then again, if we did have them perhaps we wouldn't have such spectacular manic/depressive cycles.

You and all the other bulls, unfortunately.  I'd much rather sell at $30 than at $10.

If you were trying to offload tens to hundreds of thousands of bitcoins would you not be doing exactly that?  Heck, it may not even be the thief.  Maybe an early adopter lost his job and is thinking a few hundred thousand dollars in hand and a fed&secure family beats potential billions in the future.

If you have a monstrous pile of coins to offload you'd want to add up the bids until they total a reasonable amount over a minimum you're willing to take then take an instant dump on them.  Wait for fresh money to be added by bargain hunters, repeat.

Which is exactly why I think the money that's being extracted right now will NOT be coming back to push prices higher in the future.

Weekend effect kicking in.  Time to kick back and wait for Tuesday if you want to sell.  Another "buying opportunity" may present itself as people seeing a 20-30% profit in a week decide not to see it go negative.

You ain't kidding.  I've got over a week's worth mining ready sell on mtgox.  As bitcoin dropped to roughly Europe power costs to produce without even accounting for hardware depreciation & wear/tear I've pretty much moved to the "double or nothing" mindset for my mined coins.  I'm going long through mining quickly enough, so no need to buy on the market.  But I am ever so ready to take a dump onto any significant rally.

I think the anticipated conference rise has already been priced in.  It got priced in during the spike from $7.5 to $12, in fact.

Good that someone is ballsy enough to invest.  I'm trying to be "all out", but just not managing to time the peaks.

I call BS on 300k in new investors being as likely as 300k being cashed out.  Fresh meat is a bit hard to come by, but plenty of people have millions of dollars worth of bitcoins on hand.  It's just that they can't cash out without that turning that into hundreds of dollars of bitcoins on hand.

Plenty of people got in at the 5.80 resistance level or thereabouts and are looking at nearly double their money.  Meanwhile, many miners expressed the same sentiment -- "I'm not selling at or under cost."  Variance makes it hard to tell, but it looks like we kept on mining without slowing down while the price tanked.  Which means we all should all be sitting on quite a few coins -- I know I've got more at mtgox than ever, and I'm getting a bit antsy.

So I'm not sure I'm buying into the entire explosive rally thing.  The assumption being: every dollar pulled out while selling coins is available to buy back in -- but once again, from personal experience that's not true.  The money I've pulled out by selling coins over the past few months is never, ever going to buy bitcoins.  It's going to AMD and Antec.