Was haben sie gesagt? Man fragt sich ja sofort, wieso eine Bank sich mit ihrem Erzfeind verbrüdern will.

My personal estimate for the next low point in 2013 or 2014 has been $20 for a while. $30 would not surprise me, but single digits would also not surprise me.

Why? My model of the bitcoin market is that we have a layer of people who actually use bitcoin, people who pay with bitcoins for goods and services. But this layer is thin. I guess, if that were the whole bitcoin market, a bitcoin would carry a single-digit dollar price.

Above that we have a few layers of speculators. There are some long-termists who hold bitcoins for years, regardless of its highs and lows. We have some moderately slow traders. Finally we have the get-rich-quick crowd, some of which write their obvious "BUY!" posts here. They are trend-followers. (Buy, buy! The price is rising. - Sell, sell! The price is falling.) They create the bubbles, of which I expect to see a third one.

It is these latter ones that will now get increasingly nervous. As the price keeps falling, they will sell at a loss, in order to prevent an even greater loss. They will sell right down to the bottom, and that's how it should be, because they have no place in this market and are only damaging the bitcoin idea. Fortunately they will always bankrupt themselves. Unfortunately they will only make room for new speculators, until the entire world has learned its lesson. That will take a third bubble, and a fourth one, perhaps even a fifth one.

The problem for the better speculators, those who buy low and sell high and thereby stabilize the price, is to determine in advance where the price bottom after the last bubble will be.

I think it would be below $10, if it were not for the new, clueless speculators stumbling into the bitcoin market. They will start the next bubble before the previous one is fully deflated, and that is why it is difficult to predict the bottom price.

I am very interested in useful information and ideas that help to predict the bottom more precisely.

$20 - remember, you've read it here first, actually already months ago in some other threads.

Yes, that is certainly true. A typical Windows computer cannot be called secure.

Android phone security remains a big issue. Users have to be told where the risks are. Security advice for dedicated and non-dedicated phones would be a start.

There are some very bad nightmare scenarios, like a Google administrator or programmer slipping a Trojan module into a Google app. (They are not open-source.) We should at least think about such possibilities.

I keep seeing ideas to increase security gradually, like by keeping secrets in memory only for a short time, displaying them on screen for the user to write down manually, etc.

I don't understand the purpose. All such measures do not ultimately create security. I would call them pseudo-security. If the phone is compromised, they are all exercises in futility, because for a Trojan that has taken over the phone and is attacking the wallet it does not matter much where and for how short a key is present—it will grab the key anyway.

My proposal is to forget about such measures and concentrate only on true, unbreakable security. The user has to be told clearly where the attack vectors are and what exactly he has to do to keep the wallet secure.

One possible way to create security may be to use a separate, sealed device for the cryptographic processes and provide only one communications channel to and from that separate device that is so narrow and observable that it cannot be compromised without that being noticed. By sealed, I mean either dedicated hardware or hardware devoid of any uncontrollable communications channels, like an Android phone without SIM card, without WiFi, without third-party apps, without installing apps, etc.

Make it clear to the user that they should use a full-function wallet on a single, normally used phone only for moderate amounts and tell them clearly that, if the phone is compromised, their bitcoins can get stolen, instead of heaping ineffective measures on the app that create a false sense of security in the unsuspecting user.

It did drop below $70.


There may well be a next bubble. If we keep the rhythm, it will burst in 2015 somewhere above $1,000.

To some extent markets are predictable. Otherwise there would be no successful speculators.

Often, like with bitcoin, it can be hard work. You have to watch and evaluate lots of different indicators, and you have to understand the basics of the market, for example, that the bitcoin market consists of 5% real users, paying for goods and services, and 95% overly greedy speculators. Due to bitcoin's deflationary rules, it is something like a bubble economy, creating a new bubble every two years. So you have to understand bubbles as well.

It can be done. If you stay cool, switch off your emotions, and look at bitcoin from a realistic point of view, you can predict the bitcoin price at least better than the get-rich-quick crowd.

My prediction is that the price will go down to new lows later this year or the next. $20 comes to mind.

Very true, but I would formulate it more positively, like:

Replace fiat with bitcoin, and they can all do something more useful, like creating value, rather than merely protecting it.

Schade. Aber wenn's gut wird, können wir es wiederholen.

Lasst uns das mal nicht hier veröffentlichen. Ich will ja nicht, dass die halbe Stadt kommt.

Ah, I thought you were talking about a bitcoin-based credit or debit card. Now I know what you mean.

Yes, a hardware wallet is a very interesting development. I hope that would finally be a safer way to handle bitcoins, not to mention possible additional functions.

Be very careful. Fraudsters could offer such a card on a shiny web page, knowing full well how much many people are longing for one.

Ich höchstwahrscheinlich leider auch schon wieder nicht. Aber es werden bessere Zeiten kommen.

Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws.

Mayer Amschel Rothschild

Nah, there's more to it. How about this one?

Capitalism should not be condemned, since we haven’t had capitalism. A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank. It’s not capitalism when the system is plagued with incomprehensible rules regarding mergers, acquisitions, and stock sales, along with wage controls, price controls, protectionism, corporate subsidies, international management of trade, complex and punishing corporate taxes, privileged government contracts to the military-industrial complex, and a foreign policy controlled by corporate interests and overseas investments. Add to this centralized federal mismanagement of farming, education, medicine, insurance, banking and welfare. This is not capitalism!

Ron Paul

Please add more citations! I'll make a start with this one:

The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception.

Friedrich August von Hayek

Writing something that nobody understands can mean two things. The author is either a genius or a complete idiot.

Just wait two years, then you'll either see that or something very much closer to zero.

Gerne. Sag' vorher Bescheid. michna.com

Das hier?

Nero Pizza & Lounge
Rumfordstraße 34
80469 München
Germany

http://nero-muenchen.de/

Weiß noch nicht sicher, ob ich komme.

Hans-Georg

I am not missing it. It is one of the most noteworthy things right now.

But the question is not how many people offer bitcoin payment. The question is how many bitcoins are actually moved, and the answer to that is, not many.

Remember, the rally and bubble started at $3. Now I estimate a base price of $20, which is a more than sixfold rise already. Moreover, it is quite possible that the starting price of $3 a year ago was already high, because the first, 2011, bubble was not fully deflated when the second bubble already began. A fair base price then might well have been $2.

Anyway, let's carry on. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

No. It has been predicted end of March/beginning of April already, i.e. before the bubble burst. The approximate prediction was that, after the bursting of the bubble, we would see a sequence of bull traps in a gradual decline that will last between half a year and two years.

The price actually behaves similarly to the 2011 bubble.

There is not much supporting bitcoin, only speculators. When they see the price fall, they will begin to sell to save whatever value they have.

The really interesting question is, how low will it go? My old prediction was $20, but I won't be surprised if I see single digits. I'm still sticking to that prediction. The bitcoin value used to pay for goods and services determines the base price below which bitcoin cannot fall. Unless, of course, the real traders also lose trust in bitcoin.

Anyway, that base price is very much lower than today's price. You cannot support a high price solely on the speculation that the price will be high, because sooner or later somebody will shout that the emperor wears no clothes. You have to have something more real underneath, and that can only be the use of bitcoin to pay for goods and services.