Can you check when that Trendon Shavers first appeared? It may be either an invented and slowly built-up identity or a stolen one.

Of course he may also be the real one, in which case I would suspect that he left or will leave the US this week at the latest.

True, but by far the most did.

That is the whole idea of offering 7% interest per week (equaling 3,300% per year). That put pink dollar notes over the eyes of "investors". They calculated that they could become rich with a relatively small initial "investment", but only if they compounded the interest.

If more had decided to collect their interest via auto-payout, the whole Ponzi scheme would not have worked so well, because the exponential growth curve would quickly have turned into a fundamental problem.

It did anyway, but a little later, because even the few auto-payouts grew roughly exponentially. The pirate then tried to flatten the exponential curve a little by lowering his rates, but that triggered more payouts, as predicted, and ultimately killed the Ponzi scheme instantly last week.

Now we can speculate how precisely the pirate foresaw the end, whether he was taken by surprise by the withdrawal reactions, and whether he had actually hoped to continue for several more months, but I tend to think he had his bailout planned quite a while ago already.

If indeed he had planned everything carefully, then we must assume that he is not Trendon T. Shavers, if that person actually exists at all. Somehow the name looks synthetic to me, something like, "I will create a trend to shave you." Is Shavers a known last name at all? Do you know anyone named Shavers?

That sounds quite different. The Monday in his announcements has already passed. His announcement says in a somewhat cloudy way that withdraws would begin on Monday (day before yesterday) and would be spread out over this week. So, according to his words, the last payment could be delayed until the coming Sunday.

This should indicate that something is wrong, as there has been no payment whatsoever, just as predicted by several people here, including myself. Of course some will still hope that he suddenly begins to pay, and some will keep hoping that until Sunday and even later.

My personal stance is that I never believed anything the pirate said, but he will still be measured by his words.

Would you still want me to bet?

And why did you not answer the question: Where did he say "a week or 2"? And what exactly did he say?

Don't overlook that that was my question to which you answered, but which you did not actually answer.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.

Let's use the Vandroiy bet terms. They are well thought out and have been finely honed over the course of a week, if I remember that correctly. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, then you will pay me. If Vandroiy loses, I will pay you. I think that is a fair offer, and I also think that everybody here will recognize it as one.

How much do you want to enter? Anybody else joining in? Unlikely, but the world (not to mention myself) is probably better off if anybody who believes that the pirate is an honest man loses his money.

I appreciate that some here tried to be protective against pressuring somebody into a bet (thanks!), but in my personal case there is no problem, because I think that bets can be useful tools to either stop people spouting nonsense or uncover that they are not serious and don't really mean what they say.

Hehe, no problem.

You mean invest BTC5,000 in the BullShit Trust and wait until they double? Go ahead.

Vandroiy's bet terms have been published. They cannot be altered.

Now you do. I'm saying it. I believe I've said it before, in the form that I believe he has been selling "his" bitcoins already over a longer period of time.

By the way, this also makes it difficult to predict the bitcoin valuation over the next few days and weeks. Some people were speculating that the pirate would sell bitcoins and thus depress the price, but this will not happen.

Of course, those who mistakenly believe they will get their bitcoins back will believe that the bitcoin price will fall, because at least some of the "investors" would sell their newly gained bitcoins. But this is a fairy tale.

I'm not fully informed about the bet conditions. Did you not offer a bet with an upper limit, BTC100 or 250, only to users with 250 posts?

A BTC10,000 bet would require more serious preparations, contract, escrow, etc. I would first have to understand why you offer a bet, which, at this time, you are sure to lose, probably entirely obviously in a few days.

Very good proposals. Seconded.

Going through the state authorities or the FBI will damage bitcoin, as it hands over more ammunition to make bitcoin illegal. Private detectives may be the better choice.

And it is a very good idea to form an interest group to share the costs. I guess this interest group could be quite big, so the cost for each individual may be low. A remaining question would be how to share the costs, but even if everybody paid the same amount, that would be a reasonable solution.

However, you have to be aware that you will never get back the accrued debt. The best you can hope for is a part of the principal, the amount you originally paid in, without interest. But I think anyway that the main intention should be to catch the thief and have him punished.

Answer my question.

But if you want me so badly to bet, I'll do it. I don't qualify, but if Matthew takes it anyway …

Where is that bet thread? I don't remember the conditions. Was that the bet where no bitcoins are moved until after the bet is decided?

Matthew, if you read this, please explain to me why you are offering this bet, although it is becoming more obvious day after day that you will lose it. What are your intentions? Are you planning to drop out and disappear if you lose?

Get used to the thought that the pirate could not care less. Nobody will see a penny.

Same for me. But there are other bets I'm in already on betsofbitco.in . Those are now closed, as the scam is closing down. These bets are also bigger than the small ones offered here.

Where did he say that? What exactly did he say?

imsaguy spreading his typical foggy nonsense. Or can anybody here possibly make sense of that garbage?

You are either one of pirate's helpers or one of his accounts. Time to shut up, don't you think?

Where did he say that and what exactly did he say?

Of course not. Apparently the registration procedures are extremely lax in that place in Texas. There is no information on a Trendon T. Shavers, not even his age. It seems questionable that any person with that name really exists.

In any case, pirateat40 is not that stupid.

Also, who said that pirateat40 is Trendon Shavers? Was it perhaps pirateat40 himself? LOL

I recommend to concentrate on identifying and finding pirateat40. Collect and write down whatever information you have that could help finding him.

Prepare for legal action. He needs prosecution. And so do his henchmen. We all know pretty well who they are, at least as far as their bitcointalk.org identities go.

We may have to wait for another few days, until even the most gullible people recognize beyond doubt that it was a scam, but let's be prepared as soon as possible.

Yes, I also believe this is the most likely process. I predicted it on August 15th already, which makes me wonder why he could not predict it himself. But perhaps he did, and it was just a gamble.

Nonetheless the wind-down procedure can easily take more time than anybody expected, so it shouldn't surprise us that he is trying to play for time. It doesn't seem to work very well though. The first noisy "WHERE ARE MY BITCOINS?" thread is already gathering comments, and there will be more.