I'd be wary of gambling heavily on BTC not rising - given that you've twice so far made assertions BTC will fall and been totally wrong (the first time you were so convinced you made a new thread about how BTC was going to fall and silver rise - and of course both went in the opposite direction). Why are you so confident you're right this time that BTC won't rise further?
I think the real problem here is you have misunderstood both what I said about BTC and the loan on BTCjam. I won't quote our recent, audited financial statements, but I will point out that the loan is tied to mtgoxUSD. You must have missed that  I thought the fund was meant to gamble on selling silver options (was never clear WHERE you could sell covered calls that were covered by silver you personally held) not on the exchange-rate.
Don't think too hard about it. Basically we're a "silver store". We sell silver. Beyond that, if you have any questions I'd be pleased to answer them. |
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Also have you ever thought of dropping all fees for listing orders and have the people who buy into orders pay all the fee instead. I think this would encourage traders to put up more listings and improve fluidity. It's also what the GLBSE did IIRC.
That's a good question. I have thought about it. GLBSE when I first started using it did it this way, then it seems like later on it was silently changed to both sides paying. I remember being pretty pissed when I realized this because I'd stupidly been placing orders that I could have executed right away for just a few satoshi's difference. It doesn't necessarily have to be all or nothing. It could be 0.1% to place an order on the book and 0.3% to execute for instance. That might be a more balanced approach and still encourage more use of the order book. What does everyone else think? Would it really have the intended effect of better liquidity? It should be maker/taker (adding liquidity, i.e. limit orders = no fees) right? |
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Hello. As part of our aggressive, multi-pronged expansion plan, I have initiated the following loan request on BTCJAM: https://btcjam.com/listings/2172TU.SILVER Business Development Loan Amount @ Rate ฿50.00000 @ 1.0% MtGoxUSD 105% Secured Payment ฿17.00111 every 5th of the month User usagi User Loan Activity 0 Active, 1 Repaid Expires 2013-03-15 00:00 (in 13 days) Term 90 days Description TU.SILVER business development loan. TU.SILVER is the largest precious metals fund in the community, with more than 20 times the liquidity of all precious metals funds combined. TU.SILVER's volume is around 60oz per month. I usually order 20oz. of silver at a time as coins. However, I can save more than 50% on shipping if I order 50oz. of silver at a time. Additionally we can get a bulk order discount of up to .50 cents per ounce of silver this way. This is very significant when you're trying to attract customers by beating your competitors in price as well as service. Basically the plan is to buy silver in one form or another in bulk and then sell it for a profit. I suspect my volume would be even higher than 60oz. a month if I could move silver a bitcent lower than I do now. Please see TU.SILVER's profile page here: https://bitfunder.com/asset/TU.SILVERPlease see TU.SILVER's audited monthly financial reports here: http://kongzi.ca/silver/20130224TSR.pdfNote: This is a 100% secured loan. As it should be. Note: Loan will be paid back ahead of schedule if we move the silver before then. |
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Once a soldier asked his commanding officer for a day's leave to attend his sister's wedding.
The officer asked him to wait outside the door for a few minutes while he considered the request.
The officer then called the soldier back in and said, "You are a liar. I've just phoned your sister and she told me she's already married."
"Well, sir, you're an even bigger liar," the soldier replied, "because I don't even have a sister."
Questions for Discussion
1. Why did the soldier tell the officer a lie?
2. Why did the officer tell the soldier a lie?
3. Can you remember telling such lies?
4. How does the well known proverb "A foot cannot stand on two boats" relate to this story?
5. Compare and contrast this joke with the scene where Piggy's glasses are smashed against the rocks in "Lord of the Flies".
Activities
1. Re-tell the joke in your own words.
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Uncanny resemblance. The leftmost part is quite important though (big correction after huge appreciation is less bearish LT for an emerging technology/product)
Yup. This is where elliot wave theory gets it's credibility from |
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You have nowhere near the number of data points to ascertain a linear function. For all you know, it's asymptotic, kinda like Bitcoin  This isn't about what I know, but for what it's worth you're right, I don't have all the data points -- the silver store I work for does. And I can tell you from the proprietary charts I've seen, it's linear. |
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At last we have the real impact on the market which, since this is Bitcoin is the only thing that really matters in that regard. The possibility of a fuckup.
So far every price collapse was initiated by some sort of hack/scam/fuckup people loosing money and the market confidence in one way or the other. The possibility is there, it could happen with the coinbase takeover or or not in which case there will be another catalyst.
No, this is not true "since this is Bitcoin". You need to think. Plenty of screwups began with a market crash, but certain people like to perpetuate the myth that it's the other way around. This is damaging to the community. The real problem here is that we are not ready for "P2P finance". People who were never taught finance in school, now think they know all about money because they have been spending it all their life. Or something equally puerile, like "because Bitcoin". "Plenty of first-hand experience," or something like that. |
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Do you have any analysis as to why this trend is unsustainable? It perplexes me why there are those on the forum who are only willing to accept slight success for bitcoin. What if a small country adopts bitcoin as their national currency? What if a major e-commerce site integrates bitcoin? Those that prophesy a downtrend because bitcoin adoption is unsustainable should at the very least back up their arguments with logic.
That's not to say a major flaw could be discovered tomorrow and the price tanks to $0. Both are possible, why do you think one is probable over the other, and what proof other than napkin logic and feelings do you have?
I should clarify, I mean the trend with relation to precious metals. I do not believe BTC will appreciate much farther against silver and gold. That's also what I meant by exit plan; in spite of new money, you can't eat bitcoins. do you think it's unsustainable. It doesn't matter which relationship we are discussing. If it is a generalized belief, that's all well and good. This is the speculation sub-forum after all, and all opinions are welcome. I don't however, agree with statements like The trend right now is unsustainable. This is what we know.. We don't know this, and you haven't offered up any explanation as to why you feel this way. As an aside, currency was not made to be eaten. If you are, you're doing it wrong. In comparison to percentage gains and losses on logarithmic charts to the upside we are seeing a linear progression towards zero in silver/BTC. We know it's unsustainable because precious metals can never be worth zero. Especially an industrial metal like silver. The scary thing about the charts is that the progression is linear. It's not stopping. People will double and triple on these moves. Imagine investing just 150 BTC $35 into $28 silver. (203 oz.) When BTC falls back down to $20, and silver goes back to $38, which are just normal, expected technical points, you now have 386 BTC. More than 100%. We don't know when we will hit these technical points but we must expect to hit them to be honest traders. Otherwise, if there is no other news, no supporting macroeconomic picture, we're just gambling. |
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I should clarify, I mean the trend with relation to precious metals. I do not believe BTC will appreciate much farther against silver and gold. That's also what I meant by exit plan; in spite of new money, you can't eat bitcoins.
Looks like someone hasn't heard of the McCorvic index. What are you trying to say? |
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Do you have any analysis as to why this trend is unsustainable? It perplexes me why there are those on the forum who are only willing to accept slight success for bitcoin. What if a small country adopts bitcoin as their national currency? What if a major e-commerce site integrates bitcoin? Those that prophesy a downtrend because bitcoin adoption is unsustainable should at the very least back up their arguments with logic.
That's not to say a major flaw could be discovered tomorrow and the price tanks to $0. Both are possible, why do you think one is probable over the other, and what proof other than napkin logic and feelings do you have?
I should clarify, I mean the trend with relation to precious metals. I do not believe BTC will appreciate much farther against silver and gold. That's also what I meant by exit plan; in spite of new money, you can't eat bitcoins. |
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Somebody bought 1 million worth of btc and now giggles at all the dead bears.
I think it's a small move yet compared to what lies right ahead.
Bitcoin is being used to represent real world goods and services, and as that representation increases the (essentially) same amount of bitcoins needs to represent the same amount of goods and services. Compound this with the rise of ASICs, bitcoins have become a lot more scarce to people who normally have bitcoins. I predict this will cause a wave. I think, that when ASICs start hitting a lot harder (mid-march) that is when you will see the rally end. I'd also like to see the velocity of bitcoin increase a lot more than it is now. |
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This is probably the top.
oh look its proudhon. This is probably the top. It's going to be right around here, I'm fairly certain. Now you are just doing it for the lulz Nahh, because people have seen speculative frenzies like this before. This isn't a new situation to anyone but the likes of ElectricMucus (lol). It MAY jump as high as $40. Who knows? Who cares? You CAN'T cash out at the top. You just want to stay with the trend. The trend right now is unsustainable. This is what we know. Do you have an exit plan? Surely you know the saying, bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered. |
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This is probably the top.
oh look its proudhon. This is probably the top. |
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Any plans on finally wrapping this up?
BMF had over 3700 shares of this. I'd like to know what happened too |
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Today, ninjas are everywhere; on TV, in your brekffast cereal, right behind you.
Could a secret group of super ninjas be secretly taking over the world?
We've all be assured by all ninja sources that ninjas are good.
I'm curious after reading so many times its impossible what the general belief is at this point
what do you think? Could a super ninja take over the world?
Please share your comments...
~Usagi
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One thing that's glaringly missing in bitcoin stock exchanges is option trading.* Not just the BTCUSD options on MPEx, but option trading on the assets - for example S.DICE. There's nowhere to place call and put options, or get leverage for most assets with any actual value. *I am aware that Cryptostocks has this, https://cryptostocks.com/shareoptions but I'm not sure if it's because of the exchange having about two serious assets or if the bitcoin community isn't interested. Thoughts? Thoughts? One, don't listen to MPOE-PR. You will learn who is dog around here pretty quickly if you follow that rule. Two, you can trade options on Crypto::stocks. I wish you could do this on BitFunder too. I trade options in GMP and VCX and one or two others. I make about 5-10% a month just from the options. But options trading requires "real money"; the underlying investment which I make maybe 3-4 BTC on, costs me 50 BTC. So if the market moves against me I could lose a lot. If your not sure you have a solid investment don't trade options. Options are never for people who aren't sure exactly what they are doing. I think the figures are something like, 70% of options traders go broke in three months. As an aside, I just had a chat with a forex trader and I asked him why he did it, as 98% of futures traders went broke within six months. And he just laughed and said I'd never make any real money trying to play it safe with options. *shiver* |
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Ian,
When do you estimate dividends will resume?
I was wondering the same thing, I once again find myself with a stake in BAKEWELL. When will dividends resume now that the ASICs have been paid for? Edit: Ahh, found this: Dividends are currently suspended.
I was preparing to order the Avalon ASIC on the morning of the 31st... The total of the funds raised from the transitional tranche alongside the growth fund brought us up to just over BTC130
...I could use 75 to order one box, and sit on the rest... or I could take a loan to kick us up to 150 and order two.
I found a shark tank deal for a BTC20 loan. To repay this loan BAKEWELL will direct 100% of its hashpower to our creditor @ 50btc pps rates against our debt until the BTC20 is paid back.
Once the initial BTC20 is paid back BAKEWELL regains its hashpower and will resume dividends on the regular schedule.
Then the BTC received on the growth fund will be forwarded to our creditor for a short time in order to cover their profit for the loan.
I guess then that's what you meant by BTC7.92 paid back. Hmm, at ~0.31/day thats gonna be 35-40 more days. So essentially not until the ASICs arrive :/ |
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so we've broken the all-time-high. what now? how many expected a bubble top? the momentum of this rally is shot. if nothing happens (flat prices), what will you do? if price drops 10%, will you sell? 205? 30%? 50%? our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating. i expect if we fail to maintain the (approximately) 2% daily average growth for the month of February for the rest of this week, we will correct with high volatility. if we exceed it, we will bubble up. This situation is absolutely fascinating to me. The uptrend has not been broken and we have significant acceptable downside. Back to $16, actually. Although that window is fading FAST. I think the market is short-term hot but long term this is just the trend we have been seeing for quite some time.  |
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FREE SILVER COINI was playing some Starcraft II the other day when my wife came over and asked, "Honey, what's this?" and plunked down in front of me the most dirty, smudgey, disgusting thing I had ever seen in my entire life:  "Eww," I said, "Where did you find that? "I was cleaning the top of the wall and it was really dusty. You must have put this there a couple of years ago. Does it help? I took a look. The coin case was all dusty and broken, but there was absolutely no damage to the coin itself whatsoever.  "It fell down and broke when I was dusting. Is it ok?" she asked. I looked at it for a moment and then my eyes widened. I slowly reached over and opened the case. My eyes reacted with shock when I saw a visually perfect 2006 Australian Kookaburra!  I quickly put the cover back on without touching the coin and flipped it over.  This was an amazing find! With a quick kiss to the wife I began typing up this message. I had an idea. I was going to give this silver coin away -- FOR FREE. But I wasn't going to just let this find go to waste. I was going to use it to promote my new silver coin shop, TU.SILVER. So the plan is simple. On March 7th, 7pm and seven minutes, JST (Japan Standard Time), I will pick a number* between one and the number of issued shares of TU.SILVER. I will then run down the list to see who is holding that particular share. I will then announce the winner here, in this very thread. The lucky winner can then send me an anonymous e-mail where to ship the coin! Or, should he/she wish, I will simply place this coin into safekeeping and transfer that account 10 shares of TU.SILVER. So there you have it. Someone is going to get a FREE SILVER COIN on March 7th next week, and it COULD be YOU! Happy stacking! Note: No purchase is required to enter. You can enter this contest by answering a skill testing question: Why do you love TU.SILVER (500 words). Please PM answers to me and I will consider each entry as worth one share of Tu.SILVER for the purpose of this draw.*Edit: I will place a 1 bitcoin bid from the TU.SILVER kitty (1Kitty8g4AMrU8QaLCntESmrvJNmz1QUGk) to Satoshidice. The number I roll will be divided by the number of shares of TU.SILVER, and the remainder will be used to choose the winner.
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1.1 btc For my sig
Mine for 1.09 BTC!!! Oh wait, nevermind. Usagi's awesome. Mine came as a .24 and a .01 this time as well. For what it's worth, it's because I paid people using a cryptostocks.com account, and I didn't notice they take the fee out of the withdrawl amount. This is braindead IMO, so I had to go back and send another 0.01. :p next time I'll just pay from another account. Well guys, last payments went out. I hope you're as happy with this as I am! Great work guys. Some of the signatures you came up with were really cool. As it turns out, TU.SILVER made enough money to cover this advertising and was still able to pay a small dividend. However, I took a chance with that as I was unsure of how well we would do in February. I've decided to wait and see how our sales go in March before offering another signature auction. But I do plan to offer one again, so, <bateman mode> keep your eyes open!</bateman> Until then, please have fun and enjoy your silver! |
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