The cyclical patterns seem to show generally on the logarithmic chart views that the market shows signs of recovery and start of bull trends a few months before the BTC halving, then post halving there is a long term organic increase in price over many months which then peaks towards the ends as FOMO sets in and everyone from your no-coiner friends to your grandma starts asking you how to buy bitcoin / crypto.  Then the market crashes when there is very high volatility and extreme rapid increases in price in a short period of time, then bear market follows.

History doesn't repeat itself, but often rhymes.

Agree, look at for example with the Cyprus banking crisis to name one example. The banks were "stealing" savers deposits, many luckily moved into BTC which caused a very sharp increase in price, that was not long after I was on the sidelines of going into BTC when it was around $5 or $10 and I thought it was expensive.  Only for the Cyprus banking crisis to send it towards ~$200

LOL! 


I agree with ormin, his tradingview analysis, charts and predictions have been close to accurate in the past. 

Also the recent more than doubling in price of XEM had nothing to do with adoption.

Neither was the ATH in early 2018 to do with adoption, it's a lot to do with moving money from BTC to alts, speculation, and post BTC halving long term after effects.  The ICO boom was a catalyst in the last bull run, as were the free BCH, Segwit and the futures trading starting in December 2017.

Rather than a single coin adoption causing price rises, it's mostly the overall sentiment that has a bigger effect on price.  There were some s***coins that rose to ATHs with hardly any adoption, purely through speculation and FOMO.

Keep up to date with the latest announcements at https://forum.nem.io/

https://forum.nem.io/t/symbol-brand-update/24305

By the way, NEM up 20 % this morning, broke through 4.2c resistance.

---

Prediction was right. Now onto the the next resistance level.

https://uk.tradingview.com/symbols/XEMUSD/technicals/



Disclaimer: Not financial advice.

I don't believe so. We have to wait for snapshot, then your XEM balance can be brought across from XYM nemesis block when it's released.

So if you have 100 XEM in XEM wallet, you will receive 100 XYM in XYM wallet.  In total you will have 100 XEM and 100 XYM.  Two different blockchains and tokens.

NEM Foundation Support Update - Technology and Product

https://forum.nem.io/t/nem-foundation-support-update-technology-and-product/24269

"TL;DR - New year, new brand, new ways to connect. Get direct help in NEM2 Slack, and follow along with release updates. New test network and existing test network will run in parallel. Symbol branding being implemented. TREZOR will not be available until after XYM launch due to new TREZOR listing criteria. Final testing happening now on opt-in data processing practice runs.



Communications & Support Update


As we are getting into the home stretch of testing before the public network launch, we are updating how tech and product are communicating with and supporting our community.

⇨ Communications: We will post regular updates as we move through release cycles and these final phases to the public network launch.

⇨ Support (Where To Go To Get Tech and Product Questions Answered.)


NEM development Slack group


The latest invite link is always available at the bottom of the developer center site: https://nemtech.github.io.

The most popular Slack channels for help relating to testnet and general testing are:

#help
#sig-testing


Latest Update: Symbol Testnet


With the latest release it was required to generate a new nemesis block. Instead of restarting the existing network, we typically start a new network alongside the existing one (this approach allows for minimal to no impact for all the various internal and external developers and partners who are leveraging the network)

New network was launched on Wednesday 1/22 and after verification of the network behaving as expected a new public release was made of the code for version 0.9.2.1 (https://github.com/nemtech/catapult-server/tree/v0.9.2.1).

This marks the first test network launched with the new ticker “symbol.xym” which was recently chosen after the finalized community vote.
All future test networks and eventual main net launch will use the new ticker and related branding (more on that below).
The previous network that has been running for a couple of months will continue to run for another few weeks, we will then begin to shut down the base services for it. This will give everyone ample time to move their testing and efforts over to the new network when it is convenient. While having ample time you should begin to migrate your testing efforts now.

There are currently at least two more known sets of updates and fixes coming to the core server code base, some of which will require a reset/restart of the network, and some that do not. Over the next couple of weeks the core development team will be prepping these updates while finishing off some scoping and estimates for implementation and testing timing. As we progress on development more updates will be provided on scheduling of any future test network updates and resets.


Moving to the Symbol.xym Network


Moving your existing development and testing efforts from the old network to the new symbol.xym network is relatively easy depending on how you have been engaging with the network.
⇨ If you have created any accounts, wallets, etc, note that they will not exist on the new network. Any balances, mosaics, namespaces, etc that were created on the previous network will have to be recreated on the new one if they are part of your ongoing testing and development.

⇨ NOTE: this update was built with the same parameters as the previous so if you have any network parameters such as currency mosaic IDs or network generation hash values hard wired in your testing, your connection should still work without changes

As noted above, should you not want to disrupt your current dev/testing efforts feel free to slowly migrate your setup over the next couple of weeks, we will announce as we start shutting down previous version services.

If you are/were running a test network node you will need to use the latest version which behaves in the same manner but has been prepared with the new nemesis created for the network and a couple config updates. You can find it here - https://github.com/nemfoundation/symbol-testnet-bootstrap.

Links and details also updated in the latest documentation release here - https://nemtech.github.io/guides/network/running-a-test-net-node.html#running-a-test-net-node.

⇨ NOTE: If you were before, or are planning to run permanent testnet nodes and harvesters feel free to drop notes on the #sig-testing channel and team members can send, or re-send, larger amounts of symbol.xym to increase harvesting odds.

For those that have been using and testing the desktop wallet, we have setup a new temporary repository for the movement to the new network:
 
GitHub

nemfoundation/symbol-desktop-wallet-beta - https://github.com/nemfoundation/symbol-desktop-wallet-beta/releases
Initial beta repo for they Symbol XYM desktop wallet - nemfoundation/symbol-desktop-wallet-beta

If you previously were using the wallet you can delete the previous installations as this new one will point automatically to the new network.

Server Support For Older x86 Architectures
Currently the builds and releases of the core server is focused on x86 architectures that are not very old.

We have received messages from various testers via the #help channel that have experienced errors trying to launch nodes on hardware that is much older. We are aware and will be putting some efforts into test builds to target older x86 arch’s and will update when there are builds/releases available for testing.


NIS1 Opt-in Updates


Lots of questions are being asked about the status of opt-in preparation and readiness.

The team is in the final testing stretch to simulate and verify the opt-in data processing side of things. This covers the process that will occur after the opt-in snapshot height is reached and the tools being built will read and verify the NIS1 opt-in data and generate the output that will be fed into the nemesis creation for the new Symbol network. Once this final testing phase is completed we will be ready to package and release the first parts of the opt-in tool.

The first phase of opt-in tool release is in the form of the NEM Wallet (also called nanowallet). Users that use the NEM Wallet will be able to download a new release and perform the opt-in procedure.

The library that powers the NEM Wallet plugin will also be made available for any 3rd parties or people interested in programmatically performing opt-in via their own custom process(es) or client(s).

We are also looking into packaging the library into a focused stand-alone mobile application for those that do not have access to a computer that can run NEM Wallet. More updates on this to come, this will be released some time AFTER the NEM Wallet plugin/release.


Symbol Hardware Wallet Support


Work has been progressing on hardware wallet support, with initial focus on TREZOR and ledger support.

TREZOR work has been completed to the point of being in the final ready state for packaging and submission to review. We have recently learned that TREZOR now has updated criteria for welcoming new tokens to their hardware (which is problematic with launching a new network/token.)
Must be a “top 30” token.
Must leverage new implementation technique for better support between old/new TREZOR hardware.
Pass basic review of a pull request for their firmware.
⇨ This means we will be pushing to finalize the approval process with them after the XYM token launch when it settles into its place in the markets.

Ledger support is still under development, we will have more updates in February for the state of it and their related update/listing criteria as we move things along.

Some of the NEM team is looking into other backups for hardware wallet support beyond TREZOR/Ledger, as they progress research and conversations the tech and product team will take that input and engage where needed.


Symbol Branding and Product Updates


As many of you in the community have already seen, the project is creating a new brand (https://forum.nem.io/t/branding-proposal/24060/133) for the launch of the version 2 network and related products/services.

The final piece was settled recently with the completed vote for the ticker for the public network token. The branding agency and NEM marketing team are now working to create and finalize all the necessary design and branding assets needed for the launch. This includes design assets that will be leveraged in the various products and services that we have today and new ones that will be worked on in the future.

In the coming weeks you will start to notice a range of minor then major updates for reflecting the new branding. This will include the block explorer, desktop wallet, the cli tool, developer/documentation site and several other areas in the project.

We encourage everyone to set up a node and try testnet, let’s grow together! Guide here - https://nemtech.github.io/guides/network/running-a-test-net-node.html "

Thanks, some good analysis on the charts. 

There is a mild to medium bullish sentiment in general.  There was a slight correction yesterday in crypto, but bouncing back very well, hopefully should continue short to medium term.  Long term in approx 18 months time, I'm speculating new ATHs in many crypto based on my research.

Seeing support at 0.036 (was previously around 0.032).  Need to break through 0.042 see higher highs.  Seeing a lot of bullish momentum recently. Any healthy corrections will be short-lived.

Welcome back Ormin, good to have your analysis. It's been a long time. Hope to see some forecasts in tradingview.

NEM Announces Public Testnet Launch, Introduces New Product: "SYMBOL From NEM," A Next-Gen Full-Feature Blockchain Engine

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200110005074/en/

Public testnet and Symbol (Catapult) Launch

https://forum.nem.io/t/public-testnet-and-symbol-launch/24154

The first draft of the Catapult whitepaper is ready for review:

https://nemtech.github.io/catapult-whitepaper/main.pdf

Preview:

"NEM had its humble beginnings as a ”call for participation” on a bitcointalk
thread in January 2014. The cryptospace had just experienced a boom at the
tail end of 2013 - although nowhere near where it would go a few years later
- and there was a lot of enthusiasm in the space. NXT had just launched as
one of the first PoS blockchains, and much of the early NEM community was inspired by
and had connections to the NXT community. This includes all three of the remaining core
developers.

Although there was some initial discussion on what to build, we quickly decided to
create something new from scratch. We wanted to challenge ourselves and see if we could
build something useful. As a result of lots of effort - mostly nights and weekends - this
culminated in the release of NIS1 mainnet in March 2015.We were pleased with what we
built, but knew we took a few shortcuts, and continued improving it. Eventually, we came
to the realization that the original solution would need a rearchitecture to fix some central
performance bottlenecks and allow faster innovation in the future.

We are grateful to TechBureau who provided support for us to build a completely new
chain from scratch - Catapult. We are hopeful that this fixes many of the problems inherent
in NIS1 and provides a solid foundation for future improvements and enhancements. Our
mandate was to build a high performance *blockchain* - not a DAG or dBFT based
system. In this, we think, we succeeded.

This has been a long journey for us, and we hope this is the last blockchain that we
build from scratch. We are excited to see what yet is to come and what novel things you
use Catapult to build. We would like to once again thank the contributors and the many
people who have inspired us. . .

Trustless, high-performance, layered-architecture, blockchain-based DLT protocol -
these are the first principles that influenced the development of Catapult.
While other DLT protocols were considered, including DAG and
dBFT, blockchain was quickly chosen as the protocol most true to the ideal of
trustlessness. Any node can download a complete copy of the chain and can independently
verify it at all times. Nodes with sufficient harvesting power can always create blocks and
never need to rely on a leader. These choices necessarily sacrifice some throughput relative
to other protocols, but they seem most consistent with the philosophical underpinnings of
Bitcoin.

As part of a focus on trustlessness, the following features were added relative to NEM: -
Block headers can be synced without transaction data, while allowing verification of chain
integrity - Transaction merkle trees allow cryptographic proofs of transaction containment
(or not) within blocks - Receipts increase the transparency of indirectly triggered state
changes - State proofs allow trustless verification of specific state within the blockchain. . ."

https://nemtech.github.io/catapult-whitepaper/main.pdf

NEM Foundation Technology Department update December 2019

Contributions Period: November 2019

Summary
November Tech Update

* Core devs released a new version of Catapult, codenamed Fushicho 3, which is the second iteration of our release candidate version. The update comes with an update on nemesis epoch time and adds a maximum harvester balance in the network configuration.

* NEM Foundation is moving the focus to public test network. We have executed a network reset and are planning on more tests during this month, some with regards to delegated harvesting and the split between node beneficiary and harvester block rewards share. Stay tuned!

* The NEM Developer Center is constantly being updated to integrate the latest Catapult features. Find out what has been worked on by our Technical Writers.

* A new version of the Command Line Interface for Catapult is now available (nem2-cliv0.15.1) with an update of the SDK, offline transaction signing and a few others.

* The Block/Network Explorer (Super Explorer Framework) project has seen many contributions over the course of November and is now running on pair with the Public Testnet for Catapult.

* The Desktop Wallet project has also seen many contributions and the team is currently working on stability fixes as well as planning the opening of a HackerOne program.

* The Mobile Wallet project is moving along with its private beta implementation with fixes to QR Codes generation and hierarchical deterministic wallets generation.

* The Faucet using the Public Testnet for Catapult lets you claim funds on our Public Testnet for Catapult.

* Last but not least, the core devs have started writing the catapult whitepaper.

Full details: https://forum.nem.io/t/nem-foundation-technology-department-update-december-2019