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1921  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: 'sk_wait_data' problem on: November 10, 2011, 03:10:21 PM
I am on cable with no problems downloading.
Bitcoin has started but is not showing after some 2.5 hours and I have to leave home and shut down computer.
You are saying "no problem downloading". Like one network connection downloading single file? What about using a Bittorrent client Transmission to download Fedora-16 ISOs? I've seen many cable modems and home routers failing under the load of multiple peer-to-peer connections: this is exactly what bitcoin does. Using Transmission to download a freshly released Linux (like Fedora-16) should max out your network connection and will be a good test.

First simbly reboot the cable modem and the gateway router. If this doesn't help only then reinstall your Linux. Transmission is included with Ubuntu: use it to download some well-seeded torrent and and verify port forwarding on the router.
1922  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: 'sk_wait_data' problem on: November 09, 2011, 07:19:59 PM
It is pointless to look at wait channel in system monitor. Bitcoin is a multi-threaded application and to get a real picture you would need to watch wait channels for each thread.

To get a sensible picture of what's going on open a terminal and do "tailf ~/.bitcoin/debug.log", or alternatively start the bitcoin from the command line with the "-printtoconsole" flag.

By the way: sk_wait_data() simply means that the thread is waiting for the data to come through the network socket. I see no problem with this. Bitcoin is indeed heavily depending on the correct network operation.
1923  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series (Probability) Analysis on: November 09, 2011, 02:36:15 AM
Aside from tick spikes, I don't remember TradeHill sustaining higher prices than Mt. Gox.

@2112: I don't understand your critique. I just made a small profit via TH buy-->Mtgox sell (thanks Chod). I wish I could repeat, as I'm now illiquid on TH, but happy none the less.
But do you understand why a perpetuum mobile cannot keep moving forever?

I'm kinda stumped. This joke here is too much for me to comprehend.
1924  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series (Probability) Analysis on: November 09, 2011, 02:04:48 AM
No. Because there will be times when Gox is above TH, and times when Gox is below TH. You do the transfers when it is profitable for you to do so. If your balances go too far the wrong way then you might have to eat a fee on a Dollar transfer in order not to let one account go illiquid.

If you can not do this it reveals that something is lacking in your money management strategy and you are better off not attempting arbitrage between the exchanges. If it were easy, everyone would do it...
It seems to me like you are describing a sure way to lose.

Arbitraging in general is taking advantage of too-much inter-exchange friction in one asset class (BTC) by exploiting less friction in another asset class (USD). Arbitraging doesn't assume that one can guess in advance the profitable distribution of the portfolio between the exchanges.

I've found your proposal of arbitraging BTC/USD price differentials by doing BTC transfers between the exchanges hilarious joke. But you seem to write in all seriousness. I really don't know what to think about it anymore. Was this supposed to be a multi-level satire?

I made a full quote above in the attempt to discourage ex-post-facto editing.
1925  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series (Probability) Analysis on: November 09, 2011, 01:08:09 AM
And it would be best to do your re-balancing with Bitcoin to avoid costs and delays.
Wouldn't "re-balancing with Bitcoin" in effect nullify the arbitration advantage you are trying to exploit?
1926  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: bitcoin-0.4.0-linux not running on: November 02, 2011, 07:41:39 PM
tcp        0      0 0.0.0.0:8333            0.0.0.0:*               LISTEN      1579/bitcoin  
What does "ps -fp1579" show?

Seems like process id 1579 is still running. Probably you forgot to stop the bitcoin process before removing the bitcoin files. Any Unix allows open files to be deleted, but they are just unlinked. They will get deleted as soon as the last open handle closes.

You could just try "kill -9 1579", although I wouldn't recommend it without checking first.
1927  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: PyBtcEngine: BTC backend in Python (with C++/SWIG) on: October 29, 2011, 02:48:16 AM
optimal Smiley
So you are saying that you wrote an NP-hard Bellman solver in Python? My interest is certainly piqued.
1928  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: someone fucked up and lost ALOT of money on: October 29, 2011, 02:36:39 AM
MagicalTux is a dev of MtGox.
I just wanted to remind everyone in this thread that recently MtGox had acquired bitomat.pl and its development team. Or at least some time of that Polish development team.

So it is conceivable that those 2609.36304319 BTC is the cost of training of someone from that team.
1929  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series (Probability) Analysis on: October 29, 2011, 02:14:44 AM
I just read the posts by BTCurious and chodpaba and want to make another "not even trolling" comment.

The thing you call "psychological measure" is more formally called "perceptual distance". You can solve your problems by using LSD (no kidding!, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-spectral_distance) or even better http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itakura-Saito_distance.

There are two main problems with that approach:

1) the math involved is significantly more hairy, but on the other hand Paul Wilmott introduction is quite good; if somebody's willing to commit the time to understand it.
2) is that there's comparatively little openly published information about the use of nonlinear statistics in finance.

The current situation is that anyone who really knows nonlinear statistics and is willing to work in finance is probably already employed by some quantitative finance boutique.
1930  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is the price slowly climbing? on: October 28, 2011, 08:41:28 PM
Good luck making sense of frequency data in a non-linear system...
With non-linear transformations the frequency is called "quefrency" and spectrum is called "cepstrum".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cepstrum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homomorphic_filtering
http://reference.wolfram.com/legacy/applications/signals/CepstralAnalysis.html

It should really jazz-up netrin, as he likes log-scaling a lot.

Edited: added a reference to Mathematica because they have cooler graphs, although in black-and-white only.
1931  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: 0.5 release progress update on: October 28, 2011, 07:40:51 PM
(let me know if you can help test, especially if you have a 32-bit Intel mac running 10.5).
I just want to remind that everyone who has an Intel Mac can run 32-bit applications. If your system is 64-bit native then start the app with "arch -i386".
Code:
$ cat bo.c
#include <stdio.h>
union {
        char b[4];
        int w;
} t = { 0x11, 0x22, 0x33, 0x44 };
int main()
{
        return printf("%08x,%i\n",t.w,(int)sizeof(void*));
}
$ gcc -arch x86_64 -arch i386 -arch ppc -mmacosx-version-min=10.5 bo.c
$ ./a.out
44332211,8
$ arch -i386 ./a.out
44332211,4
$ arch -ppc ./a.out
11223344,4
I'm still using Leopard (non-Snow) Macbook, so I will test your builds if you post them somewhere for download. Thanks in advance.
1932  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Freedom Box on: October 26, 2011, 09:02:29 PM
The entire software wouldn't have to be written just the database.  It wouldn't be a trivial task but it could be done.  Alternatively you could use a 1.7" hard drive but those are going the way of dinosours as flash gets cheaper and cheaper.  Maybe possibly do some kind of caching to reduce number of writes required by the database.  I am sure there is a solution.
I fully agree that it could be done. After a rewrite Bitcoin's blockchain is actually an ideal application for the flash storage: only appends, no re-writes, massive reads. So no wear-leveling and any filesystem would be required for the storage of the biggest item: the block-chain itself.

But the combination required: (1) rewrite of the Bitcoin client (2) dedicated raw flash storage (3) suitable modifications of Linux kernel to expose (2) to (1); make this whole project unlikely.
1933  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Freedom Box on: October 26, 2011, 08:04:45 PM
The OS, client, wallet, and blockchain can fit on a 4GB SD card.  Eventually you will wear it out but who cares.  Flash storage is incredibly cheap today.
Not with Berkeley DB used for index logging. The write-ahead-logging is the worst case for the wear-levelers: almost-all writes and almost-no reads. Complete software redesign would be required. And to make a redesigned software bug-compatible with the official Satoshi client is an exercise in pointlessness.
1934  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Freedom Box on: October 26, 2011, 07:57:00 PM
You could easily do a light version that did not try to validate every transaction.
That is what I'm saying. You could do all kind of modifications to the original Bitcoin P2P protocol and see if it can survive. Original design was really Peer To Peer. With modification it will become Parasite to Parasite.

The question still stands: what is the ratio of Parasites to Peers that the overall bitcoin protocol can still tolerate?
1935  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Freedom Box on: October 26, 2011, 07:41:11 PM
dis
The idea is to run a debian OS on a cheap ARM SoC that plugs into your wall.
Doesn't have a disk big enough. Without the copy of the blockchain all the lite-clients could be just blindly circulating the invalid transactions. For now the vast majority of clients are able to consult the blockchain and suppress the invalid transactions.

In a way, this could be a good test of the resilience of the bitcoin P2P protocol.
 
1936  Other / Meta / Re: The Case against Solidcoin, and it's place on bitcointalk.org on: October 26, 2011, 05:36:34 PM
Keep it. I read bitcointalk because it is the best uncensored news source available.

As a software professional I want to know all the news and all the rumours about all good and all bad projects. SHA-256-coin SCRYPT-coin ROT-13-coin, I want to read about all of them.

If some pro- or against- people give you moderators trouble then give them a week timeout to cool down.

But please don't get themselves involved into the censorship games.

Thank you for keeping this board open to all ideas, good and bad. Keep up the good work. If you start need to offer ads, please do so, I don't have any ad-blockers. Grow your site's traffic and business. Good luck.
1937  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 25, 2011, 09:53:48 AM
so what do you think?  did i at least somewhat answer your question?
Sorry, it seems like my original reply had disappeared into the ether. You shouldn't use the phrase "prevents file copying", but something like "allows efficient detection of duplicate copy versus the original" or "detects and suppresses the attempts to multiple-spend the original value".

Other than the above it seems like what you wrote is correct or very close to correct. I will not attempt at nitpicking who was first and who was second. But your writeup reads like a pitch, not like a diligent analysis.

While I understand and somewhat share the goal of overthrowing the banking cartel, I cannot share their methods of doing that. I see absolutely no reason to dispense with the generally accepted principles of accounting like e.g. double-entry and utmost good faith. It is quite unfortunate that nobody in the core development team is familiar with accounting practice. Moreover they are quite proud of not understanding accounting, universally despise accountants and bankers (even the conscientious ones) and actually seem to cherish the opportunity to poke out their eyes and ridicule their needs.

It is my opinion that as an investor you shouldn't rely on the opinion of Internet experts like Gavin, theymos, Dan Kaminsky or 2112. You should sit with somebody whom you know well, with whom you worked with for many years, and who had deployed and integrated some financial software in a business that you understand. Only then you'll have a real knowledge of what will happen when the Bitcoin rubber will meet the dirty road of financial reality. You're saying that the Bitcoin withstood 3 years of attempted attacks. I'm asking: why during those 3 years nobody had attempted even a toy integration project and shown that the books balanced?

Since you've asked about my technical perspective, here are the three points that should become hard questions to ask the core developers:

1) Their reliance on a "gitian" build system that is pretty much a rehash of "secure Ada compilers" from the days of Uncle Ronnie fighting Star Wars using imaginary weapons. This is just pure pandering to paranoia, not a software security methodology. It is nothing more than a tar pit that actually makes serious integration work pretty much impossible.

2) Their reliance on the JSON-RPC communication protocol that is completely unsuitable to the needs of two-way communication. The band-aids of "long poll" (implemented) or "monitor" (not yet implemented) are showing lack of literacy in the available technology, eg. FIX protocol (in use by financial institutions for almost 20 years) or ZeroMQ or AMQP.

3) The overall project dynamic is completely strangulated by the vested interest of miners. Even a simple off-by-one bugs aren't getting fixed because fixing them may offend miners. Check out this post by ArtForz and the discussion on the preceding and the following page.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=46498.msg555148#msg555148

This is completely unlike any other open-source project and worse than the majority of the closed-source ones.

I summed the "mining income" of the last 3 blocks: 150.0200. Of this 0.0200 was for the useful work of securing network transactions and 150 was the distribution lottery tickets that will decay exponentially to zero. If you feel that the current banking cartel is ripping you off then wait until the sole discretion at setting the transaction fees will be in the hands of the current mining cartel.

Bitcoin may be the solution to the current worldwide problems with fiscal management. But not in the present implementation and not with the present leadership.

Edit: Oh, and by "leadership", I don't mean Gavin Andresen personally.
1938  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 23, 2011, 09:48:43 PM
What Bitcoinica facade? You call it a scam?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42267.msg517942#msg517942
1939  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 23, 2011, 09:25:21 PM
did i not say it right? how about the first p2p file sharing system that prevents copying?  how would you say it?
I really don't know what you are trying to convey.

I can say that I'm really interested in the perception of the Bitcoin project, both amongst those who can read the source code and those who wont understand it. For the project with about 25 thousand lines of hard-to-read code the amount of misunderstanding among the software professionals is within my expected boundaries.

For non-practitioners in software I just don't have a frame of reference. I'm just trying to comprehend what they are imagining or believing as the features of Bitcoin. And if they believe then whom and in what claims. I find this very interesting and this is what is continuing to draw me to this forum.

Clearly you are an experienced investor, since you've quickly seen through the facade of Bitcoinica and Zhoutong's posts. Also clearly, you must rely on somebody's else opinions about the actual underlying technology.
1940  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 23, 2011, 07:18:12 PM
1.  the first sourcecode that prevents file copying while allowing public access.
I'm curious. What does the above sentence mean? Anyone?
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