We will also be able to significantly reverse environmental degradation (including, as a minor aside, powering bitcoin on equipment that is no longer coal-fired).
We've had the technology to do this for forty years. It's just not being developed, and it won't in the current geopolitical environment. It's wishful thinking to believe that wind, water and solar are ever going to be able to run our modern industrial economies. Nuclear power is simply required if we really desire to move away from using coal. Solar offers more power than we can use. We can even move to harvesting solar in space for literally the foreseeable future. It will begin to be used when it's cost-effective against other forms of electricity. Which won't likely be very long now. We already have perfect solar antennas that pickup solar energy like an antenna rather than like photosynthesis, and can thereby capture a large percent of the energy efficiently, like 99.5%. What we lack are transistors that can switch fast enough to turn light's AC current into DC current. So, by roundabout method, the microchip industry will ultimately solve our power problems  Long term, fusion may pan out also. But I think solar will bridge the gap. What you really need is to change the frequency of the AC current. Most homes and transmission lines use around 60Hz AC, not DC. Also, thorium is far more realistic than a power generating fusion process on Earth. |
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This rather interesting, but don't forget ASIC have only started to ship.. between avalon, bfl, and knc there are probably tens of thousands of units (ordered) waiting to ship... Meanwhile, if you order from ASICMiner, you can have your hardware within a few days. |
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Sooner or later they're going to have to jack up the interest rates or risk rampant inflation. Right now, I think the Fed is still far more worried about unemployment than inflation, but it's bound to happen eventually. I'm kind of surprised he's still buying assets at such a rapid rate, personally.
If they let the housing market fall to fundamental levels many more people will lose their homes. But with the world's stock markets rolling over they will have to make some tough choices soon. Fall? The housing market is already picking up quite a bit. But yes, you're right that a lot of that may very well be due to the dirt cheap interest rates. 3.5% is almost unheard of, even 5% would be relatively cheap historically. But I don't think the Feds really care that much about the housing market. Maybe it's just me, but there are several things that could have been done to improve the housing market that aren't that complicated. But yeah, it'd involve things like marking people's mortgages down to the actual property value and the bank would be forced to take a loss on it. That's really what it comes down to, the banks have more clout than the millions of underwater homeowners. I saw a post in our weekly newspaper where they were talking about an eminent domain idea where the city would come in, seize the property, sell it back and market value to the original owner so that they wouldn't be paying grossly inflated prices. Sadly, it never got off the ground. It'd really be a win win for everyone - except, of course, the banks which sold this whole song and dance to begin with. If the housing market is picking up, why is the Fed spending $85 billion a month on mortgage backed securities while millions of homes sit empty and are being held off the market.... just waiting for a recovery so the banks don't have to book the losses. Probably because the housing market, and the economy, hasn't picked up as much as the Fed wants it to pick up. I feel like the low interest rates are more about helping the economy than helping the housing market personally, although it does help both, ultimately. Either that or they've just ran out of traditional tools because the effective interest rates are 0% now and this is the only thing they can do to affect the economy. I didn't realize it was mostly mortgage backed securities, though. I thought it was bonds in general they were buying. A third round of quantitative easing, QE3 was announced on 13 September 2012. In an 11-to-1 vote, the Federal Reserve decided to launch a new $40 billion a month, open-ended, bond purchasing program of agency mortgage-backed securities. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it would likely maintain the federal funds rate near zero "at least through 2015."[48][49] According to NASDAQ.com, this is effectively a stimulus program which allows the Federal Reserve to relieve $40 billion dollars per month of commercial housing market debt risk.[50] Because of its open-ended nature, QE3 has earned the popular nickname of "QE-Infinity."[51] On 12 December 2012, the FOMC announced an increase in the amount of open-ended purchases from $40 billion to $85 billion per month. So yea, good luck with your "housing market is picking up quite a bit" theory. I would really love it if I were wrong. |
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I don't believe the end is near.
There will soon be new cheap energy sources which will help a lot.
Computers will be smarter and we will come much more efficient.
Internet is empowering individuals more than even in the history of mankind.
I believe the future is going to be great. Of course there will also be problems to solve. Bitcoin might help with that.
You are right that we are seeing tremendous progress in many areas. But traditionally, going back at least to Adam Smith, economists have acknowledge that technological progress led to lower labor demand, increased production, and ultimately lower prices (deflation) in the short term. Sound familiar? After some time, things settle out, but the only lasting gains are funneled to landlords. Deflation makes sure any of the capitalist and the laborer's gains are erased. So remind me again how technological progress is going to break this historical trend and save the markets? |
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The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.
I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right? Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order. Let's compare then smart arse. AM 3.3 BTC per share 400,000 shares 0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic) 110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs 5 Gh/s BFL 274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC 0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs 0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths. If you can sell your AM share for more than 0 BTC after 770 days, then you have no argument. You can't know the price of AM in 770 days, but it likely won't be 0 BTC. Additionally, you can't know the future difficulty so why bother with your pointless simple math. Why would you want to sell your shares if they're so great? Sure, you can sell your AM shares and then make an actual profit. You could have bought a new miner by that point if you went with BFL though and would be making even more profit. The point of those examples was to show that even at stupidly high difficulty, which we probably won't see for a few years, BFL still offers better value. If you buy a BFL, you will recoup the costs quicker than you would if you bought an AM share, even if it did take them a year to ship it, which it wouldn't. Wow. Just wow. Please don't invest in AM. |
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LOL If ASICMINER can not earn additional income form hardware sales, it becomes a regular mining turd and we know what happens to those, when diff keeps going up. (or if you do not, go and find out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241101.msg2555945) Generating serious profit from selling hardware is the only thing that keeps it interesting as an investment. It becomes a regular mining turd with access to hardware at cost that is currently being marked up by a factor of 5-10X production cost. Give it time. Serious profit from hardware sales will come, but ramping up production takes time. |
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mine 3 days but no block found.....  Mine one day, 5 blocks found.... It's called variance. Where is the "I do mine on p2pool" option? |
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I will send out the Monday payout soon after the latest block matures. It is not yet spendable. Details below.
Block Unix Timestamp: 1372020686 Total Payout: 0.15397766
Address shares payout
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr 358324 0.15169291
1Q68UdKBYgBVy7h4gAAXcipaoBPeoJZrXQ 0.999985 0.00000042
13WSYzi1h9S14oN7E8DGbGLk7vHoXC2x3W 174.207 0.00007375
1yrraLgmRZ1fbgtz2BSVXcWVrJnH785QZ 5221.76 0.00221058
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I'm sorry I didn't do the digging to figure it out for you. It appears it is raising the share difficulty that saves your efficiency. I just figured you were the expert and could figure it out easier. Sorry for wasting your time. I clearly keyed in on an incorrect statement, which caused you to dismiss everything I had to say.
Sorry if I look a bit harsh, but I don't spend much time on bitcointalk right now: I have a lot of work currently and I'm slowly recovering from a broken back at the same time so if I even suspect I won't find useful information I don't dig to save time. The meds I take may not help either: they are known to have several side effects on the mood and short-temper is one (I may be predisposed for this one...). Raising share difficulty may not be the solution: as I wrote in the previous post the published results match a configuration with standard share difficulty. I'm sorry to hear that. I truly wish you have a speedy recovery. Thank you for updating the guide to be less discouraging for BFL owners. P2Pool is experiencing very long block times and if BFL hardware can potentially help with that we should certainly admit it is complicated, but not actively discourage them from trying. |
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Bitcoin network
* Increase SHARE_PERIOD (average time between shares) from 10 seconds to 30 seconds, in order to make it more fair for high-latency miners (read: ASICs)
Will this increase the sharechain from 1 day to 3 days? I was planning on keeping it the same for now. The only disadvantage a long sharechain has is making P2Pool take a long time to start up and download shares, along with increased memory usage. I'm rather happy with all the changes, except this one. Going from 10 seconds/share to 30 seconds/share, but without also increasing the sharechain length, means that there will be much fewer paid shares per found block. 24 hours at 10 seconds each = 8640 shares. At 30 seconds each = only 2880 shares. I have a rather slow node (only one Eurupter, it does 320 MH/s), so I have to be pretty lucky to squeeze in my shares during the 24 hour window of opportunity, otherwise they expire unpaid. When the block was found recently, my node was pretty far down on the list. Under these new rules, I might not be on the list at all. That takes away one of the big reasons to do shared pool mining: consistent and steady payouts over time, instead of having to play the lottery for a rare big payout. Please reconsider? Is there a problem now with the payout being spread too thin? I didn't think there was. If that is a problem, then there would be reason to reduce the shares per block. Otherwise, since you're already doing a hard fork, now would also be a great time to also stretch the sharechain to 3 days, instead of 1 day, which would keep the number of paid shares per block the same. Josh If you want to stay with p2pool, but desire lower variance perhaps you can consider one of the p2pool pooling options available in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=234841.0The first option is a ruby based proxy which logs all pseudoshares and then redirects all shares to the same p2pool address. As a miner all you have to do is change your pool address. The other option is a python patch for p2pool that logs all pseudoshares. You can then run the node with a 100% fee and split up the payments based on the logs. Source code is available for both, but I'm not sure if there is a public pool for the patch option yet. I run a server with the ruby proxy solution, but I welcome you to start your own pool with either codebase. |
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So people selling bitcoins on localbitcoins need to be registered as MSBs too? I thought it was only exchanges themselves, but maybe volume is a factor. I was thinking of selling on localbitcoins eventually, so I guess I'll have to look into these laws eventually.
I signed up for Coinbase myself and was reluctant to use them initially because the fees are relatively high compared to the exchanges, but it's so easy to use that I'm willing to put up with a 1% fee. I was hoping to use bitstamp with their lower fees, but since I don't live in Europe the fees would actually be higher than Coinbase's fees overall since I'd have to pay wire transfer fees or SnapSwap's fees if I went the Ripple route.
My personal theory on why the price is lower on non-MtGox exchanges is because the volume is so much less. More volume tends to push up prices, so MtGox prices get pushed up and the other exchanges prices tend to stay lower.
It depends. If you are selling because you want to sell bitcoins and buy dollars you should be fine. If you make it your business to buy and sell for people and take a fee you are a broker and must register. I've had nothing but good experiences with Coinbase, but obviously you need to make your own assessment of the risks of any business you hold money with. |
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ASICMINER is a SCAM and is ILLEGAL. The issuer has not registered his investment with the SEC or other authorizes. HE IS BREAKING THE LAW.
Since when do businesses in China have to register with the SEC? |
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Thanks for the first link, seems they are using existing silicon manufacturing process to make quantum computer chips, and it is already quite mature. We might see these chips appear in 1-2 years Except that annoying background energy that requires near absolute zero operating temperatures. |
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You're welcome.  One last thing—I haven't received anything on the 1yrraL address yet (the blockchain only shows a single .01 BTC transaction that I sent to myself for testing purposes), just the .12807 mBTC on 1Q68UdKBYgBVy7h4gAAXcipaoBPeoJZrXQ. Was this supposed to have been sent out already, or is it scheduled for the next payout cycle? Next cycle.... unfortunately p2pool hasn't found a block yet  . Terrible luck. You can verify here: http://p2pool.info/ |
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What you are missing is the marginal production costs. I would guess that now that they are masked out, the chips cost $10 a piece and the USB boards with heatsink (for example) cost another $10. Current price is 2BTC. There is a huge decrease in price that can be made and still be profitable. As competitors come online only one thing will matter: who can source their chips and boards the fastest.
that's where having the facilities and experience of producing 300 TH rapidly actually counts for something. Being located next to the production facilities doesn't hurt either. |
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One can clearly see that the USD is has been going down down down.
FTFY I wouldn't overlook the recent moves that are occurring simultaneously in all major markets. when everything measured in something moves unisono, maybe it's the something that actually moves. Right. Everything priced in fiat has been falling, thus deflation. Yes, we have had quite some inflation in the recent past, but I wouldn't discount the potential tops forming. |
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One can clearly see that the USD is has been going down down down.
FTFY I wouldn't overlook the recent moves that are occurring simultaneously in all major markets. |
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It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.
Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.
LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:
AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD
KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD
It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.
AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.
What you are missing is the marginal production costs. I would guess that now that they are masked out, the chips cost $10 a piece and the USB boards with heatsink (for example) cost another $10. Current price is 2BTC. There is a huge decrease in price that can be made and still be profitable. As competitors come online only one thing will matter: who can source their chips and boards the fastest. |
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Oh, I fully expect the mother of all crashes in real-estate to happen soon.
aye putting bonds and mortages on the sky level and removing any form of state borrow-welfare this have to big way to end bad 1) politicians invent a new type of enemy, terror and terrorism is getting old to keep Joe's in control 2) Joe's go bananas start to riot and elect some kind of communist+nazi+hippie politician for price controls and all the measures that destroy the economy cybercrime |
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