I remember back in my early days of trading I'd have these "feelings" and I'd ignore them and later learn that I should have listened to them after I had taken a loss. Once I learned about technical trading, after studying some charts, I realized that these "feelings" I used to have actually corresponded exactly to TA indicators like MACD and RSI.
Unfortunately, our post-modern lives are very confusing and 'emotions' have become derided as something that takes away rather than adds to our decision-making. Crime prevention officers often tell people to trust their instincts (that darkened street or quiet car park that makes you uncomfortable) because we spent 100 000s years of evolution trusting our instinct to keep us from danger. But rather than trust our emotions as a useful part of the decision making process we applaud isolated rationality. By way of coincidence here's a post from another thread - someone confused about their emotional intelligence: My emotions are telling me to buy back in BIG right now. Shocked
But my gut says I need to wait a little bit more. |
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Yes I think give it 4 hours.
a rally of $200 from 500 is a nice move, and it must consolidate.
the volume is impressive, although the volume distribution of the move tells a story about it's indecisiveness.
Well, 4 hours has been and gone and 750 wasn't broken although the rally to 712 was nevertheless impressive, regardless of the sentiment that drove it. It's interesting how (apart from Gox, of course, where there is no real motivation to trade since neither funds not BTC can be removed only trading fees) that volume is dead across all the exchanges at present: the herd is waiting for a leader. Exactly. And then the opposite biochemical brew will begin to dominate (those neuro peptides of grief, despair and depression). And once the chemical mind can barely remember what the bull, dopamine chemistry felt like - and begins to believe that it was all an illusion and delusion, and attention/funds drifts to more exciting pleasure potential activities....out of nowhere will arise the full-on hit of crack that sends all into ecstasy once again....the chemical mind once again believing that "we got it now" and this too will never end. And so it goes...
Yes, that's correct. But all our life can be regarded as the sum of electrical signals caused by bio-chemical reactions. What is even more interesting is the impact of these extremes upon decision making when the extremes are experienced more frequently. In 'normal' life such extremes are tempered by a period of first numbness, then normalisation and finally reflection - perhaps if you are a professional trader you may be acclimatised to such sudden and extreme states of mind. But the majority of small holding BTC traders (of whom I am one) are not used to experiencing these extremes so rapidly. A 'thinking strategy' must be employed. It's interesting that some people say you must be emotionless to trade, detach yourself from your feelings. I disagree and I put one user on ignore the other day because he insisted "feelings are for women" - this macho behaviour generally leads to serious mental health issues. In fact, I would suggest it is more productive (and healthy) to listen to your feelings when trading - explore them, acknowledge them, understand them. Then move onto to other modes of thinking - research, risk assessment, benefits, creativity. Only when you have considered everything can you make a decision that can be regarded as fully considered. Is this detachment or complete immersion?  |
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As someone noted earlier the Parabolic SAR on the Stamp chart has switched to support on the 1month, 2month, 3month, 6 month and 1 year charts.
So, difficult to believe we will be testing yesterday's lows again - if you want to buy back in, judge it well.
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Bonjour/Gutentag/G'day, Well, just been catching up....dearly me some folks are getting rather tetchy aren't they. Good to see the karpeles petition has gathered pace https://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/petition-to-remove-mark-karpeles-from-the-board-of-the-bitcoin-foundation#shareonly 179 needed now. "Over time bitcoin changed and started implementing changes that would require people using previous versions of the software to upgrade. While we followed most of those updates we were more and more busy and couldn't keep up with all the changes,"
Mark Karpeles
too funny
That's some strategic management. Congrats to all who bought at 540 and sold at 720 (not me I may add). So, what's in store today? |
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So Fonzie, did you hit your short targets or are we subject to another bout of your uber-trolling?
Real trolls don't trade and don't own any bitcoins. From the man himself: I will stop trolling when Bitcoin hits 200-300$ , promised.
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So Fonzie, did you hit your short targets or are we subject to another bout of your uber-trolling?
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Let's se if understood correctly. The "malelability" of transaction requests can cause two problems:
* First, old or custom wallet software may broadcast out "non-canonical" transaction requests (like writing "$020,0" on
check instead of "$20,00").
Such requests were originally accepted by the bitcoin network, but a few months ago the protocol was tightened
and they started being rejected.
An exchange that issued such a request in order to execute bitcoin withdrawals by clients had to either re-issue the transaction
request, or cancel the withdrawal and credit back those bitcoins to the client's account. If the exchange did either of these
two things, the result would be only annoyance to clients as their withdrawals were delayed or failed.
If the exchange did not do either of those things, the bitcoins would be subtracted from the client's account but would remain
in the exchange's own wallet. If the exchange also failed do proper accounting (which it probably did, or else it would have detected the
problem), it may have believed that the apparent BTC surplus (bitcoins in its own wallet minus sum of all bitcoins in the clients accounts)
was its profit from fees; and therefore converted that surplus into dollars to pay for expenses and dividends. In extreme situations,
the exchange may become insolvent (unable to produce enough bitcoins and dollars to honor all its client's accounts.)
* Second, some hackers exploited the malleability to steal coins from any exchange that issued non-canonical requests.
The hacker would open an account at the exchange, put some bitcoins there, and request a withdrawal. He would then watch
for the corresponding transaction request as it was broadcast by the exchange, and would broadcast a mutated copy (like
changing "$020" to "$20"). The network would execute the "canonical" version and reject the original for being non-canonical (and
also an attempted double spend).
The exchange would then think that the transaction had failed, and therefore would either re-try it, or cancel the withdrawal and
credit back the coins to the hacker's account. In the first case the hacker would get the withdrawal executed two or more times
but debited only once; in the second case he would get the withdrawal executed without his account being debited. Repeat
to taste.
Again, this hack could be spotted imediately if the exchange kept proper accounting, as it would notice that the coins
were taken out from its own wallet in spite of the transaction being apparently rejected.
Is this understanding correct?
If so, does anyone know whch exchanges had which of these problems, and how many bitcoins they overspent or had stolen?
It seems that for MtGOX the amount involved is at least 50,000 BTC or more, and one of those two problems had been occurring for several months. How could they fail to notice and diagnose such a big problem?
I believe that's correct although it wasn't the transaction amount but one of the transaction codes that was malleable. However, it was my understanding that no 'money' was ever actually stolen in this way from the exchanges at least (the SR example may the the exception that proves the rule). NB I'm no expert and this is based on the reading I've done this week, no flaming thanks  |
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Thank you Next question is - what will happen next? A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs B) Something else (what?) In a sane and rational world, a period of consolidation, improvement and contemplation. But this is Bitcoin.... |
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The foundation serves as a figure head for the Bitcoin foundation,
Yo dawg. From reddit: He paid for the membership, I'm not sure he can be removed without a refund. He paid for membership, not for the board seat. Signed |
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I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future. Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues. Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price. But a significant proportion of coins from both Stamp and Gox are going to be moved into old storage, as people realise holding 'wealth' on exchanges is more risky than they previously thought. This will mean fewer coins in circulation which should negate the actions of those who want to 'cash out'. |
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Guys do BTC-E withdrawals work? Thanks
Yes, I've been doing withdrawals no prob all week.... |
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With withdrawals reinstated I imagine some coins will be moved into 'cold' storage....meaning fewer in circulation and an increase in price....do you think?
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It's going to go down as one of the weeks in BTC history, this chaos.
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Wot no $10, what's taking so long?
give it five or six hours |
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Spread between stamp and GOX in percentage, expect that last bar to turn red en shoot down when if gox enables btc withdrawals.
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The US East coast is going to wake up in 4 to 5 hours and which way they jump is going to decide just how bloody this weekend gets.
I've said it before, kudos to Risto, he called the date for a major correction/capitulation weeks ago.
A "flaw" in the code which caused Mtgox to fuck up was impossible to predict. So just pure coincidence. Sure, I don't think he was predicting the circumstances, just that his analysis suggested it was time for a significant correction, he lucked out with this weeks events. In fact, I think we are now below his trendline, so I imagine he's looking at buying in at some point this weekend....$450 is his entry point I remember reading. |
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