$4.8 million from 445->600
$5.0 million from 445->400
BId Sum 11M Ask Sum 30M # of bitcoins = 12,000,000 # of USD = 12,000,000,000,000 # of pixels in my monitor? Meaningless obfuscation. The bid/sum ratio is dreadful....I can't recall it ever being worse...even in 2011. What is to be gained by denying the current issues we are presented with. (and I'm talking as a 'community' rather than personal or individual gain.) |
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$4.8 million from 445->600
$5.0 million from 445->400
BId Sum 11M Ask Sum 30M |
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Could anyone conceive of a better moment to buy then in the low after mtGox and real China-ban?
I'm pretty depressed after being Goxxed and buying in waaaay too high, but my depression is showing some major cracks and I'm having real trouble convincing myself not to touch what remains of my fiat-reserves (which were not meant for bitcoin) to buy in now.
Old English Saying: "when in doubt, do nowt" Seriously, don't trust any of the bullish 'advice' offered here (it's easy to be bullish when you own a 'castle')...if you think you could sleep well having lost all your money, then you are fine...if not, don't invest. |
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creekbore, I am now convinced by aminorex's explanation and I think my point about unused addresses is irrelevant, as it is just part of the n^2 network effects.
However, I am still thinking p has some reverse feedback on n on the margins.
Aminorex is most convincing  You both sound incomparable. And it all sounds wonderful but is completely impenetrable. If BTC crashes and burns tomorrow all the theoretical thinking will suddenly change "ah...we forgot to factor in...blah blah blah" This happens often does it not, often because the theory is divorced from reality or based on inaccurate data. From my simplistic PoV the chart shows address used not the number of users? My point is every time I use BTC I create a new address to either send from or receive to but I'm still a single user. That probably sounds illogical but I suspect my behaviour is fairly commonplace. Since the number of tx has remained steady, why not the number of users? |
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Thanks for replying ...I can always rely on you for a sensible response  And I'm not being deliberately contrarian...I hope BTC succeeds (for purely selfish reasons) but having been through three bubbles and crashes now this one feels very different. @AnonyMint raises the points I would (individuals have multiple wallets with little in them) and addresses are even more frequent per user (I rarely use the same address twice and imagine most casual users do the same...it infers a level of uniqueness to a tx). Do you do the same? The other charts seem to back up the theory that we have fewer people using BTC, so claiming 'this one is the important one' could be viewed as being selective too. Given all the other evidence that points to the contrary, it seems rather hopeful to base ones attitude (ie bullish on BTC) on a single chart. |
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Risto, I have a question I'm curious on how much you spend each month on quality cigars?  And hot towels. I don't know what are hot towels, but cigars cost between EUR 10-60 and I consume about 20 per month. I would say that it is slightly less expensive than owning a car (I sold the family cars a few months ago). Funny thing is that by smoking cigarettes which do not have any known health benefits (on the contrary they are harmful!) you are set back about EUR 200-300 per month. So just by doubling it, you get to enjoy the best of the best, instead of worst of the worst  Sorry Risto, just being silly. You get hot towels on flights (y'know they hand them out)...I always imagine you smoking cigars and getting your hot towels over at cryptocrypt. Anyway, you know cigars have pretty much the same carcinogenic impacts on the body as cigarettes? Being a scandy you probably have used snus too...that's pretty carcinogenic too. But hey you only live (and die) once...no point worrying about that stuff, when your numbers up, your numbers up. |
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Risto, I have a question I'm curious on how much you spend each month on quality cigars? And hot towels. |
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. Lots of money was lost there, putting people permanently out of the game. Gox was one of the major, if not the major propellant upwards. With that money out of the game and not supporting the high price anymore, the price is set to go a lot lower than 500.
Permanently out of the game means dead. I don't think they died. Gox victims have a lot of btc to buy if they hope to recover. Yeah, that's how people think..."hhmmm...I lost a load of money on BTC...I have no money left...I'd better work harder to buy MORE BTC". C'mon... |
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But with Chinese funds looking increasingly insecure, where is the new money going to come from? It seems unlikely to come from a 'new' market like China was a new market last year. So, if we can no longer count on fresh 'geographic' markets, then it has to come from sectors within established markets.
China is still a new market. Penetration is less than 0.003%. 99.997% upside remains. Thanks for trying to drag us back on topic My point is China is a market that is being strangled -- the percentages are irrelevant, 99% of nothing if the 'wise old men' ban BTC (and lets face reality, it seems they want to do so) -- so where are the new funds coming from? India? South America? It seems the only place investment is coming from are 'Western' countries, where BTC currently is a couple of steps up from time share and life insurance in terms of public perception. We can talk about adoption curves, trend lines, Metcalf's Law, Kondratief Waves and all the rest....its makes great copy but...brass tacks now ...show me the money! |
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everyone take one last look at my witch craft before I throw some dice and the market goes as I please. and still hodling long from 475  still waiting...will this take much longer |
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no creekbore, I believe they used fundamental analysis and a daily trend line to bring it down, but they never understood afterwards why it collapsed before the plane hit ... should have studied herd psychology aye  Well, I'm completely baffled now (but then it doesn't take much). |
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Doesnt matter who you thought did it, 9/11 was a conspiracy by definition.
the building imploded without being hit by a plane. is that really suspicious in a 'terrorist' attack? no, they could plant bombs.
What is suspicious, is why the US officials are not open to discussion of this subject. why do they bash the engineers that disprove their theoroies. The US has thus been exposed.
Although the exact identities of the 'terrorists' will never be known for sure, so the US government may as well have nodded along to theories about planned demolition.
I didn't know terrorists nowadays are concerned of the safety of nearby buildings... They bombed that building like a demolition expert Demolition experts can be terrorists, American and white all at the same time. but we will never know for sure. Perhaps they used an Elliot Wave |
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So they are implementing a voucher system like they did for fiat deposits, but now we have vouchers for BTC instead.
Is it? BTC deposits do not need vouchers, I understand they are for yuan/usd/whatever. ("BTCC" is "BTC-China", not "Bitcoin".) I read it as vouchers for BTC, same as they had vouchers for fiat. To be honest, I'm so over it -- the sooner we stop looking at China the better. Except my apologies for the cretinous 'seleme' --- unfortunately most Aussies have a brain/mouth ratio of about 1:100...but by this time of day I imagine he's more drunk than usual. |
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So they are implementing a voucher system like they did for fiat deposits, but now we have vouchers for BTC instead.
If this is true then clearly its not tenable, what next --- vouchers for vouchers for BTC, followed by a ban on vouchers and all words synonymous with the concept of exchange.
It's a game of cat and mouse but the cat has access to the biggest army in the world.
Its ironic that if BTC wasn't so heavy on idealism ("let's bring down govt and rip up roads") the Chinese govt probably wouldn't be so scared of it.
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LOL, four pages back Risto said: and we get back to TA.
before launching into a four page discussion about life, the universe and everything (other than BTC TA)  |
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Mornin' all!! Can't really be arsed reading back through 20 odd pages but I think I get the idea from the last couple: cultists have their fingers in their ears, Chessnut clinging to EW for comfort while TERA is a lone voice of reason along with...Fonzie. Strange days indeed Hey Fonzie...where in Asia are you at present? Right now i´m in Malaysia-Kuala Lumpur, preparin for my flight back home on Sunday. I had awesome weeks , i have visited Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and New Guinea. 23 flights in 6 weeks Good for you. Safe travels. |
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Mornin' all!! Can't really be arsed reading back through 20 odd pages but I think I get the idea from the last couple: cultists have their fingers in their ears, Chessnut clinging to EW for comfort while TERA is a lone voice of reason along with...Fonzie. Strange days indeed Hey Fonzie...where in Asia are you at present? |
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I got a good feeling about this.
Yeah...bugger all that EW nonsense...fall back on wishful thinking LOL im not falling back on anything. it's all playing out fine. ya know, elliot wave analysis has fundamental explanation, it's not witch craft. It's not all about charts either, an EW analyst is also fundamentally involved, or is not an EW analyst. we are all about panic selling, it's the same every time, old as the hills. I know you are an EW expert but I've done my own research and study into it as well as TA and in traditional markets I believe they are very useful tools. But BTC is very sentiment driven (check my profile I did a LOT of homework before I even started posting never mind bought a coin) and often behaves contrary to what traditional analysis 'predicts'. For me one of the fundamentals of TA (or EW) is the bid sum ---its so simple but as humans we love to over complicate things --- right now the bid/ask ratio is 1:2.35. I don't need to explain that to you but its a scary figure yeah? "But gosh Creekbore, that can change any moment!" Yeah, our fairy godmother could pop in and buy a couple of mill BTC....or maybe not :/ The trend over the last three months has been a declining bid sum and an increasing ask sum -- investors want to leave the market and there is no new investment. It's that simple. I REALLY wish it wasn't so (then I could make some money too)...but we are heading for a deep and protracted bear market. |
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