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Let me straighten this out, does this means that I have to play 4000 games before I can participate in this competition or simply needs to play atleast 4000 games to receive the prize if I finish as top 3?If it is the later then Imho there is no point to catch up to the third place since he is the easiest to beat right now

Im not sure if I get this right but do I need to wager this by playing 4000 games incase I win one of the prize? This is mentioned in the leadersboard page though


It is not really a convenience things to do, playing 4000 games will take up some times before I could even withdraw the winning, its absurd imho

I think the original post is very well articulated, far better than I could, so I feel a bit bad trying to repeat it. But the point that some provably fair systems are kind of stupid and only allow 2^32 combinations -- which is small enough you can literally just try them all. If > 2^31 of the final outcomes are good for the house, then the house knows that it'll have an increased house edge by using that initial shuffle.

So really it's not a problem with provably fair, just bad ones. Provably fair systems like bustabit already prevent against precomputing a favorable initial seed. For a shuffling one, you just need to use logic that gives a shit load more possible final shuffles. (I recommend the pseudo code in my previous post, which shouldn't reduce the space at all)

So, maybe I'm not reading it correctly, but the idea is not to produce a deck that wins every single time, if that's what you meant by "100% success." Rather, to produce a deck that causes the player to lose more than the expected average. In other words, you're not looking to have a dealer 20 every time, just perhaps more often.

Imagine we're playing 6-deck blackjack described at the Wizard of Odds. For each hand, the net summarized win is as follows: player wins 42.42% of the time, pushes 8.48% of the time, and loses 49.09% of the time. What shufflepuff can do is create decks that incrementally perform like this:

Average: win 42.42%; push 8.48%; loss 49.09%
Iteration n: win 41.20%; push 8.50%; loss 50.3%
Iteration n + p: win 40.85%; push 8.62%; loss 50.53%
Iteration n + p + q: win 39.10%; push 8.75%; loss 52.15%

When you use iteration n + p + q, there will be seeds where the dealer loses (player wins), but the player will lose more often than before (on average). So, using this arrangement, the casino can permanently alter the house edge.

Yes, so that's part of the heuristic I mentioned earlier. There are games, such as roulette, which require play history. However, there are others, such as blackjack, that are exclusive. The exploit works regardless. In addition, you don't really need to account for 'strange' plays, as the goal is to reduce favorable cards for the player, or encourage favorable cards for the dealer. Since the dealer doesn't play strangely, the exploit works. Here's a brief overview:

Roulette

• Optimizations: favor one color over another; favor thirds; favor number; reduce instance of number, color, or third.
• Heuristic: Brute-force. The arrangement space is computationally feasible.
• Deployment: Requires at least one game played to stack decks.

Blackjack

• Optimizations: player receives bust hand (13-16); deny player ace; house starts with 10, Ace, or non-bust card; reduce splitting; reduce doubling; reduce dealer busts, and more
• Heuristic: Create translation decks using the seed space. Since most blackjack games average 6-7 cards total dealt, attempt to optimize by best-fit.
• Deployment: Mutually-exclusive. Exploit works regardless of prior play.

For blackjack, you're not necessarily attempting to combat random play (random hits, random doubles), but rather, encourage favorable cards to the dealer and encourage bad cards for the player. So, you're looking for arrangements that give the dealer an Ace more often than not, give the player a 6, reduce the likelihood of splitting, doubling, and so on. Beyond that, you'd want to allow for the house to make their hand (try to keep a slug of low cards beyond the 7th position of the final deck, etc.). You can also optimize to combat basic strategy and 'upgrade' the cold decks when prior play history suggests the player is playing this way.

Blackjack works due to the extremely large arrangement space. You're talking 416! / 128! / (32!)⁹ possible arrangements in an 8-deck game. Since your target is only 2³², that means you need to find an arrangement that works well against the 2³² / (416! / 128! / (32!)⁹) shuffles in the final space. The number is so small that most calculators can't even represent it. It's possible there exists an arrangement that beats all possible seeds.


Video Poker

• Optimizations: encourage dead hands for the first 10 cards; reduce royal flush, straight flush, and so on; allow for good primary hands (like four to a straight flush), but deny matching card, and more
• Heuristic: Create translation decks using the seed space. Reduce translations to first 10 cards and attempt a best-fit optimization.
• Deployment: Mutually-exclusive. Exploit works regardless of prior play.

This is just a partial list. I'll elaborate more when I publish the optimized decks. This is pretty much where I started when I attacked the problem.

Addendum: Also, remember, the goal of shufflepuff is to not discover the uber-optimized deck, just ones that perform better than others. So, a casino operator performing a random search would probably do well in the short term with shufflepuff vs. hiring a mathematician to construct a heuristic.

Thanks for the feedback!

I thought about doing a video, but didn't really know if it would cultivate interest. I'll rethink the idea. Might be nice seeing the exploit visually.

You're right, JackpotRacer, the exploit works regardless of client seed. You could change the client seed every time with random data; the house will still win more often than expected if it uses an optimized deck.

Provably fair is usually only as strong as the reputation and trustworthiness of the casino. Dice isn't as vulnerable to the attack you mentioned as users can roll over/under and use unpredictable multipliers but you still raise a valid concern, any website can recognize a pattern and plant a seed that makes the player more likely to lose. That's why it's important to set your own custom seed and when re-randomizing you should write in your own seed rather than let the website hand one to you.

Witty

Could you comment on how you will fix your provably fair card games in response to the following thread?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1494470

Thanks for checking in. Anything new at Bitcoinrush?

great post.

It means more advertising for Meme in the long run. I like the coin and it does have potential to hit mainstream, the tech is good also.