I have no idea, however after the NYSE in the US was closed from 9/11 to 9/17/2001, the markets fell about 7% on the open. I think whichever way BTC<->USD (or other fiat) goes after the open, it will be larger than 7%. Your logic below makes some good sense by the way. We are now 3+ hours into the Mtgox 12 hour trading outage and I'm sure everyone is wondering where the price will go when trading resumes.
I think the price will rise and here's why:
If you are anxious to SELL right at this moment; you can open an account with another exchange right away, transfer your coin within an hour and sell them.
If you are anxious to BUY right at this moment; you can open an account with another exchange, but due to the delays in transferring fiat you have no ability to get your funds into that account within the 12 hour window.
Also, presumably, there is a lot of fiat tied up in Mtgox accounts during the outage that is/was intended to be used to buy more coin.
The conclusion being that the ability to buy during the outage is limited whereas the ability to sell is not.
If the above reasoning is accurate, then it seems to me that buying pressure is now suppressed. When trading resumes, that released pressure should push the price higher.
Thoughts?
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The MtGox server is located in Florida, so that does mitigate things a little bit. Obviously it would not solve the problem nearly completely. (Based on what I have read and looking at the IPs etc). (And the DDOS comment was great!) Imagine what might happen, if North Korea attacked Japan, home of Mt. Gox. N. Korean missile launchpad moved into firing position - reportA North Korean missile launcher has moved into the firing position with rockets facing skyward, Kyodo reports, citing a Japan defense official.
The Japanese government is on high alert, citing indications that Pyongyang might soon launch ballistic missiles at its island neighbor.
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Thinking more about user-friendly names: 1. A bitbuck - maybe 1/1000th of a bitcoin. 2. A bitpound - maybe 1/100th of a bitcoin. 3. A bitloonie - maybe 1/10000th of a bitcoin. Stuff like that. Non-tech types will embrace a friendly naming system. ;-)  |
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Very creative. Good job on it! I just finished this site, which generates music from realtime Bitcoin transactions and trades, pulled from Blockchain.info and Mt.Gox. Hopefully I put this in the right subforum   http://www.listentobitcoin.com/Works with Chrome and Firefox (maybe Opera too.) It's written heavily using javascript. Hope you like it, and I'd love to hear any feedback you have! There's also a Reddit thread with some more info. Thanks! |
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I agree about the names. Yes, we have the 1 BTC, plus the satoshi. It would be useful to have a name - "a dime" or some shorthand. Yes, it means the same thing, but this is a marketing issue so your parents or grandparents can say "I'd like one BitEagle" which is 1/100th of a BTC. Or whatever. It is all about ease of use for the non-tech user. I think we should move the Bitcoin decimal point six places to the right, and primarily use the unit kBTC. (new kilobitcoins)
1 old BTC = 1,000,000 new BTC = 1,000 kBTC (new) = $190
10 kBTC = $1.90
The reason for this is that it is relatively futureproof, and that people are more comfortable handling very large numbers than very small numbers. It also leaves two decimal points of Bitcoin, just as most national currencies have two decimal points.
+1 I don't like all this milli and mikro... |
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You hit the nail on the head: 1. People asking, "hey, can you help me with X?" 2. Worrying about the whole kidnapping of members of the family. You want people to like you for YOU, not for what you can do for them. I always say, "not enough". I have never understood why people think it is such a taboo to talk about ones net worth or salary.
I think many people are jealous, and if you told them you had a million dollars, they'd view you differently and expect you to pay for everything 'since you're rich'. If you have a couple grands, that's not special. But once you have a lot of money, people around you start behaving differently. |
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There are more people voting for a living than working for a living - how do you want to protect yourself and the fruits of your labor? A non-inflatable asset. can anyone think of any good ones? something you could quickly mention to someone, like a fact or something.. stuff like, "there are over (some number) bitcoin related sites".. whatever, anyone got anything good?
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Hi, Those are good points, I would also add that there has been a huge increase in press and awareness of BTC in the last month so you have more interest and more demand (because of that and the items you listed) which has increased the price. A classic supply/demand curve where demand has increased while supply has not. There's three separate things going on.
1) The "natural" built-in deflationary economics of BTC (and possibly some of the other related virtual currencies) will tend - all things being equal - to drive its value up over time. The economics of such isn't really proven in practice, despite anything people will tell you.
2) BTC as fear index. Gold isn't "working" right now in terms of its value going up. There's a lot of fear in Europe (and possibly in developing markets, although I don't really know) of the traditional banking system, in light of recent happenings in Cyprus. In theory (again, we don't really know in practice) it is hard for governments to control / tax virtual currencies.
3) Greed. This is where the bubble stuff comes in. It is interesting to watch the open trades list on exchanges to see where the support levels are. BTC has a lot lower volume than, say, a big futures market, so there's inefficiencies built in, but you can still see where people are reluctant to pay more, or sell for less.
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Very true. And since prices are set at the margin, it only takes a small increase in interest in bitcoin and a small increase in usage to have a large increase in price.  It's not the cypriots. It's people from the other european union countries being aware of the impending doom, increasing diversification and taking money out of savings in case shit goes down. Don't look at bitcoin in cyprus, look at it's growth in Spain and Italy, they are next under the knife.
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As "they" say, there is no such thing as bad publicity. Popularity brings value, but it also brings danger. Remember mt. gox a few years ago?
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Prices are set at the margins so even a small number of additional bitcoin users can greatly increase the exchange rate when there is a limited supply. Is this a "bubble" or is this just the continuing maturation of the market itself? Think about this: with around 21 million bitcoins maximum, if even just 5% of the world population wanted to use it (roughly the population of the US, say 300 million people), that would be around 0.07 bitcions per person if evenly distributed. The market is huge with the number of people in countries with currency issues, lack of freedom, lack of transparency - shoot, it might even be super-majority of the world population. So, I do not know if this is a bubble, or growth. The only way to know for sure is to look back in a few years. ;-) There are so many threads about this "bubble", I decided to make one BIG thread. Post your various findings and explanations here, and let's keep things organized instead of posting 1,000+ ALL CAPS posts saying "OMG BTC IS $140". |
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That is a nice explanation. I think most here would agree that the good money is the money that won't have its value inflated away. The thing that will interfere are any actions that the governments around the world attempt to take regarding bitcoin. The power-hungry do not like things that can undermine their power. For those curious: Gresham's law is an economic principle that states: "When a government compulsorily overvalues one type of money and undervalues another, the undervalued money will leave the country or disappear from circulation into hoards, while the overvalued money will flood into circulation." It is commonly stated as: "Bad money drives out good", but is more accurately stated: "Bad money drives out good if their exchange rate is set by law."
I'd say it depends on what currency is viewed as the good and the bad, and if we are restricting ourselves to actual "government" or just a collective people.
Until it's more recognized on a national scale, I don't think it'll matter. The people seem to know what they want, and that's fine enough right now. Being non-centralized gives bitcoin a bit of freedom that it other currencies don't really have. Also because there is a set "end amount" that is actually known and not a limitless supply or and unknown supply (gold/silver/other precious metals), it gives it the advantage of knowing what could be in the future a lot easier.
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Exactly. Unless they are redefining the word to mean something like "anything prior to May 2012" is a founder. ;-) How did the OP reach the conclusion that the report was about founders? It included any address which only received and hadn't spent coins in the 3 months prior to the report (aka May 2012). Essentially any cold wallet by anyone (including major exchanges and companies) created in 2012 would be included.
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I agree. Likewise, perhaps an active for X hours or for X years might be helpful too. i also favor the captcha or the "moderated posts" approach!
the current situation is really annoying... most newbies are eager to join discussions and simply lose interest by the time they finally get to be a fully qualified member.
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And as long as I am asking, I presume it is a problem or not? It is still reporting to the pool. I have two mining boxes, both running Ubuntu 10.10 and ATI cards. I set one up last night (HD5870) and it ran fine all night. Came down to check it this morning and I see nothing but the following: ... [6/13/11 10:18:21 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out ... So I downloaded a new Diablominer binary just to be sure. Same problem. Nothing has changed on the machine and I'm posting this from it (eg., network is connected). Here's how I'm launching it (using -d to try and see more info). topper@diamond1:~/bitcoin/DiabloMiner$ ./DiabloMiner-Linux.sh -d -v 2 -w 128 --url http://<myuser>:<mypass>@mining.bitcoin.cz:8332/ [6/13/11 10:22:07 AM] Started [6/13/11 10:22:07 AM] Connecting to: http://mining.bitcoin.cz:8332/ [6/13/11 10:22:08 AM] Using ATI Stream OpenCL 1.0 ATI-Stream-v2.1 (145) [6/13/11 10:22:13 AM] BFI_INT patching enabled, disabling hardware checking [6/13/11 10:22:13 AM] Added Cypress (#1) (20 CU, local work size of 128) [6/13/11 10:22:28 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out [6/13/11 10:22:43 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out [6/13/11 10:22:48 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out [6/13/11 10:22:59 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out [6/13/11 10:23:03 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out [6/13/11 10:23:08 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out Help / information would be appreciated. I don't see why my new mining box should no longer be able to connect. Thanks, N |
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Did you ever find the solution? One machine started this over the weekend for me too. Thanks! I have two mining boxes, both running Ubuntu 10.10 and ATI cards. I set one up last night (HD5870) and it ran fine all night. Came down to check it this morning and I see nothing but the following: ... [6/13/11 10:18:21 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out ... So I downloaded a new Diablominer binary just to be sure. Same problem. Nothing has changed on the machine and I'm posting this from it (eg., network is connected). Here's how I'm launching it (using -d to try and see more info). topper@diamond1:~/bitcoin/DiabloMiner$ ./DiabloMiner-Linux.sh -d -v 2 -w 128 --url http://<myuser>:<mypass>@mining.bitcoin.cz:8332/ [6/13/11 10:22:07 AM] Started [6/13/11 10:22:07 AM] Connecting to: http://mining.bitcoin.cz:8332/ [6/13/11 10:22:08 AM] Using ATI Stream OpenCL 1.0 ATI-Stream-v2.1 (145) [6/13/11 10:22:13 AM] BFI_INT patching enabled, disabling hardware checking [6/13/11 10:22:13 AM] Added Cypress (#1) (20 CU, local work size of 128) [6/13/11 10:22:28 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out [6/13/11 10:22:43 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out [6/13/11 10:22:48 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out [6/13/11 10:22:59 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out [6/13/11 10:23:03 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out [6/13/11 10:23:08 AM] ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: connect timed out Help / information would be appreciated. I don't see why my new mining box should no longer be able to connect. Thanks, N |
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Just thought I'd give this data point.
I installed OS X 10.7 on one machine over the weekend. Mining speed when from around 209000 khash/sec to around 255000 khash/sec now.
So if you are running it on OS X 10.6.x, you might consider upgrading. Something (open CL drivers?) was definitely improved between 10.6 and 10.7.
:-)
19K58mitGUHJhZLxXn1hVPxQysTAEcicUm
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Hi,
Over the weekend, one DiabloMiner client started with this message:
"ERROR: Can't connect to Bitcoin: Bitcoin returned error message: <html><body><h1>504 Gateway Time-out<<h1> The server didn't respond in time. </body></html>"
The miner is still working, finding blocks. I tried changing the pool with the same result. Restarted machine with same result.
Any suggestions about what could be causing this? Does it matter?
Right now it is set to: pool.bitclockers.com:8332
Thanks for the help!
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