google adwords campaign for people searching "what to do with my bitcoins" and variations.  EDIT: just saw dooglus already considered google and they have limitations for gambling adverts |
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Yeah it was down for a couple hours, back up now.
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Is it possible to download a list of all transactions made on our account in a programmatic fashion? Full history access in a programmatic way, including time of trade or settlement, price, size, fee paid, etc.
This is a requirement for us to deploy an algo on your system.
Just a heads up that we are implementing this at the moment, will share specification soon. awesome, glad to hear it. |
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Can you share your projected numbers?
I have us at an average network size of 2.95Ph/s for the month of December if all manufacturers are able to deliver on their timelines. While this is unlikely, I would like to think it is accounted for. There are still unknowns including private mines, unknown manufacturers in China, etc. Thanks! This is going to be a wild ride even though it sometimes feels like we are moving in slow motion.
woo! |
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Once all upgrades are completed, Teramining will be 23.65% of operations at 10.5Th/s. I am rounding this percentage up to 24% and Teramining will continue to grow as more equipment is received and put online. I should be able to reach around 13.5Th/s within the next couple of weeks which would make Teramining 3.24Th/s or 11.75Mh/s per Teramining contract. This amount is greater than the originally proposed 10Mh/s and represents a 30.5% increase over the 9Mh/s.
The teramining contract officially starts tomorrow August 26th, 2013 and will run through May 26th, 2014. This term is guaranteed even if the equipment costs more to run than it is making for Teraminers.
Once Teramining reaches 13.5Th/s, we will be riding out the exponential growth of the network and will see where we land. I have pretty pessimistic numbers in my projections and they still show a return for those who paid for the upgrade.
As always, I am 100% committed to making sure Teraminers are taken care of. I have been traveling almost non-stop for three months now to get us to this point.
I am beyond grateful to all of you who have worked with me through the last year. Thank you for your continued support.
Best,
James
Thanks for everything you've put into this James. Can you share your projected numbers? |
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I just don't want to be there when the bitfloor scenario goes down again so i pulled out all my money this morning and sold on bitstamp. Fuck this.
OM NOM thank you panic sellers for your healthy haircuts lining my pockets  . Wish I had more fiat already in place at bitstamp to om nom some more! |
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what happened to fireball? Nothing happened, AFAIK. Cool I guess I just hadn't noticed you posting about icbit.se before. After talking with some buds it appears you are a part of the regular icbit team, so nevermind. |
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I buy at bitstamp or bitstamp + $1 and sell around halfway between bitstamp and gox
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Woot! Happycow is my savior whenever I travel!
I've often wondered what the bitcoin/vegan cross section is. To me, voluntaryism fits nicely with veganism.
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what happened to fireball?
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Very interesting, thanks for the analysis klao. I guess we don't know whether these whales were buying in order to sell on other exchanges (where fiat withdrawals are going through), or buying in order to buy, do we?
No, we most certainly don't. But if I were to buy bitcoins for 2 million USD just to invest, I probably wouldn't deposit to the exchange where the price is the highest... Actually, if you executed $2m worth of buys, you would have paid more on bitstamp than on mtgox. Bitstamp's liquidity sucks, relatively speaking. So I can see why they went to gox. |
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It sorta looks like what you're trying to do, zeroblock, when you say things like "The spread is widening at an alarming rate" is to cause more people to panic. Well, the spread is widening at an alarming rate: ▲ mtgoxUSD 121.5000 ▲ bitstampUSD 104.4300 Spread: 16.8% I guess it depends what your timescale is. That's actually narrower than it was yesterday. No. The average price variation yesterday was 15.93% (16%). So this is higher than yesterday, intraday swings have been going from 12-20%. You can verify this on Bitcoincharts. Go to "view larger chart" then "load raw data" for the daily weighted price. http://bitcoincharts.com/My turn to quote wikipedia! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man  But seriously, I didn't claim that it was narrower than the average price difference yesterday, did I? |
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There have been a few posters here in the forums saying they have successfully gotten their funds out in yen in 1-2 days. However, you have to have a Japanese bank account in the same name as your Mtgox account to do so.
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Very interesting, thanks for the analysis klao. I guess we don't know whether these whales were buying in order to sell on other exchanges (where fiat withdrawals are going through), or buying in order to buy, do we?
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I'm not mad at you, i'm just frustrated that no one is accessing the proper risk for the Gox situation. I'm quite level headed for what should be shocking to everyone. I have an undergrad degree in Finance, with an emphasis in European Union International Business. I know exactly how arbitrage works, I've done cross currency swaps, and I've Black Scholes modeling (options pricing). I know what I am talking about. I would love for you to prove me otherwise by providing an academic paper that states that there are arbitrage opportunities that exist for extended periods of time. Here's round 1 from me: Free Lunch! Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets"Using the “firm” quotes obtained from the tick-by-tick EBS (electronic broking system that is a major trading platform for foreign exchanges) data, it is found that risk-free arbitrage opportunities—free lunch—do occur in the foreign exchange markets, but it typically last only a few seconds. “Free lunch” is in the form of (a) negative spreads in a currency pair and (b) triangular arbitrage relationship involving three currency pairs." "The size of expected profits is higher than transaction costs; trades that simultaneously take place on both sides of ask and bid (or three currency trades in case of triangular arbitrage) occur more often when free lunch appeared one second earlier than otherwise, suggesting that free lunch opportunities are actively taken. The probability of its disappearance within one second was less than 50% in 1999, but increased to about 90% by 2009." http://www.nber.org/papers/w18541I don't know the research, I don't have a degree in finance, all I know is I worked for years on wall street and our primary line of business was arbitrage trading, and we made good money doing it. It's funny, most of the folks at my firm didn't have a degree in finance either, maybe the finance majors were scared away from our company because what we did was theoretically impossible . Also, your paper is about a very advanced and liquid market, forex. Don't you think applying its conclusions to the bitcoin markets is a little optimistic? |
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It sorta looks like what you're trying to do, zeroblock, when you say things like "The spread is widening at an alarming rate" is to cause more people to panic. Well, the spread is widening at an alarming rate: ▲ mtgoxUSD 121.5000 ▲ bitstampUSD 104.4300 Spread: 16.8% I guess it depends what your timescale is. That's actually narrower than it was yesterday. |
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I care that everyone see the bigger picture, and understand the risks that they are taking.
99% of people on bitcointalk know depositing @ gox & expecting a quick withdraw at this point is risky its all over the forum. Whats your real motivation? Actually, I've found alot of people still don't realize the problems at Gox. My company, ZeroBlock focuses on providing real time market data and aggregated news feeds cross platform on all devices. http://www.zeroblock.com/ We are currently deployed on iOS and will soon be on Android. My only motivation is to spread information. I've read more articles and analysis and anyone else in the world (the app was in beta for 1 month). And what I'm seeing is a serous problem with Gox that needs to be addressed head on by Karpeles. Once the news about the spread hits a mainstream news source, Gox is finished. If gox all of a sudden finishes that is bad for the crypto community do you understand this? large sums of investment gone. Gox can lose market share without dying, this is optimum for the bitcoin community. I certainly wanted the best outcome for Gox possible (and for Bitcoin). But under the leadership of Karpeles, they have destroyed themselves. Gox is already rapidly losing market share, and will soon not exist. ok great so let them lose business naturally, spreading FUD all over the forum to advertise your site is just pissing people off. Oh I was wondering where those pretty charts of the spreads between the exchanges came from. Zeroblock's site eh? I guess his advertising worked , I'm heading over to check out his site. |
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Nice Thesaurus lookup of "quixotic," that's definitely a word that is in common use.
I care that everyone see the bigger picture, and understand the risks that they are taking. I don't want you to influence uneducated users, who then might transfer money to Gox, thinking that Gox is liquid enough to withdraw fiat. Then their funds will be stuck and exposed to the risk of Gox failure.
I quote wikipedia articles because I believe that is where someone with your level of intelligence should start. So you know "I am wrong from personal experience," without any factual backup?
Fantastic analysis.
You are pretty upset eh? It's cool, vent it out at me, I can take it. I can admit that I do agree with you that small arbitrage opportunities might exist, however it looks like large arb opportunity cannot exist to do cash flow limits. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277455.msg2972810#msg2972810. The reality is that Gox can't support large outflows of cash, this is proven by the existing spread. No large player can take advantage of the arb opportunity, otherwise the spread would be 0%. Therefore, this arb opportunity will exist and spread larger and larger as traders on Gox realize that they can't actually cash out large sums. In fact, the sustained (average) spread increased yesterday (8/19) to an all time record of 16%. That was the average spread throughout the entire day. And yes, you might be able to take advantage of small arb opportunities, but you still expose yourself to the risk of Gox failing. You might make a 50% profit, then lose your entire initial capital when Gox closes up. Each day that passes proves my point. The spread is widening at an alarming rate. A week ago it was 10%. Where do you think that spread is heading? And why do you think it is heading that way? Its a loss of confidence with Gox that is accelerating. What's the tipping point? 20%? (already happened) 25% 30%? Certainly that tipping point is not too far away. At this pace, I see Gox's end within the next 4-6 weeks. If anyone would like the excel spreadsheet containing my data or charts, please PM me. Hey, I doubt we see the facts all that differently.. I was just hoping to get you to tone down your claims a bit. Saying things like "arbitrage opportunities only exist for microseconds in modern markets" is really a misleading statement, because (1) it's not even true in the major stock exchanges (microseconds is *really* fast! you get into things like light speed limitations and such at that level..) and (2) bitcoin is far from a mature, efficient market like the major electronic markets around the world. That said, I agree that this is not just a pure arb sitting there for every doofus to take advantage of. There's enormous counterparty risk at mtgox right now, and some at the other exchanges as well. So the term "risk-free profit" is really misleading as well.. if you sell the spread, you're basically making a bet that mtgox will eventually wire your money. It sorta looks like what you're trying to do, zeroblock, when you say things like "The spread is widening at an alarming rate" is to cause more people to panic. Hardly jives with "I care that everyone see the bigger picture, and understand the risks that they are taking." I mean, it's cool to me because our algorithms are experiencing increased trade volumes and profits due to people panic trading, nevertheless it hardly seems charitable to incite people to more panic trading. |
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No, it is a very poor analysis. Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds. With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months! The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it. The arb exists because it can't be realized.
hahahaha I'm not sure what you find humorous. But I understand it must be frustrating lacking the capability to understand basic concepts in finance. Find me an academic paper that states that arb opporuntities can exist over extended (long) periods of time....You won't. Remember, if someone could have taken advantage of the arb opportunity there wouldn't be an extended price variance. But if you'd like to read up on arbitrage so you can make some relatively intelligent comments, then I encourage you to read the links below: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_pricinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_market_hypothesishttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_equilibriumAnd here is one academic paper out of hundreds: Free Lunch! Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets"Using the “firm” quotes obtained from the tick-by-tick EBS (electronic broking system that is a major trading platform for foreign exchanges) data, it is found that risk-free arbitrage opportunities—free lunch—do occur in the foreign exchange markets, but it typically last only a few seconds....The probability of its disappearance within one second was less than 50% in 1999, but increased to about 90% by 2009." http://www.nber.org/papers/w18541Zeroblock, I don't understand why you are on this quixotic campaign to convince everyone that bitcoin markets are efficient. You have already admitted that you don't have any personal experience with the matter. You're quoting wikipedia articles written by academics looking at the stock market instead of asking traders who make their living doing arbitrage. I know you're wrong, from personal experience. That said, I don't care so much what you think, and in fact it's fine if you want to teach everyone that the markets are efficient, you'll just discourage more of my competition (thanks!). The thing that I don't understand is, why is it so important to you that everyone thinks the way you do? |
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