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Regarding the SEC / Shavers question, the gentleman who works at the SEC and did the legwork for the Shavers investigation actually showed up at Satoshi Square in NYC this week. He was down to earth and seems like a good guy. From talking to him I got the impression that he was the only one at the SEC who has a clue about bitcoin. I don't know if he personally made that diagram or not..
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I'd like to be able to take the occasional day to attend to non-site things without it causing a panic. Maybe in time I'll be able to... I'd hope not to have to announce it here that I'm going to be offline for a few hours. I guess it's a testament to how available we have made ourselves to the site's players and investors that they notice when we take a day away!
You guys do really top-notch customer service. |
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Is it possible to download a list of all transactions made on our account in a programmatic fashion? Full history access in a programmatic way, including time of trade or settlement, price, size, fee paid, etc.
This is a requirement for us to deploy an algo on your system.
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People trying to invest and divest using the site's profit percentage as prime investment and divestment points are buying into the gambler's fallacy just the same as those who employ martingale gambling strategies not in that they're trying to invest and divest multiples of anything but rather in that they believe the past will influence the future.
For example, some one might choose to divest when the site is up in total profit by 1.5% and re-invest when the site drops to -1.5% or perhaps they will choose some manner of determining when the site's profits have been eaten into a sufficient amount to make investment statistically better than before.
Whatever the case, it's something of a follie I think though I'm happy to be corrected. It seems to me that even if the site dips to -1.5% profit, there's nothing to say that it's not just as likely at that time for the site to go to -5% as it is to increase by the same number of points (3.5 points) to +2% profit
I don't have anything against this of course. I'm happy to keep my pitiful little chunk in there no matter the variance and it seems to me that strategic investing/divesting is just trying to predict random chance as the site's retail side investors are doing.
I dunno. I could be full of crap. Did I miss something here?
A bot could detect whale activity, and divest until the whale leaves. Such a bot would produce lower volatility for the investor, but also lower expected returns. |
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Is there any way to make the txt bigger? I make the widget bigger but the txt stays the same size. Its kinda hard to read.
Or maybe you could offer different sizes, and maybe even the bigger ones like 4x2 sized widget be able to display more than one currency at a time.
https://github.com/ogunden/litecoin-widget/issues/12I think it's simpler to have one widget per coin/currency. I want to keep the configuration relatively simple. |
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version 24:
- update to match new cryptsy api
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I can do English to french.
Contact me thru PM to work things with me.
French is 99% done already :/ Hahah, Thanks for saying, but I did saw after. I do think it needs some second verification as I looked fast and I am not sure of some translation. I can't help for other languages thought! Yeah I think a good chunk of their translations need attention. You can get some credit for corrections I believe, though I don't know exactly how it is determined which corrections are accepted. |
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I can do spanish or english, need either?
I have somebody working on spanish and it's already 95% done, so I doubt I will need it. English is a funny one. If you want to do it, there are two requirements: 1. You must be a native English speaker. The only reason I can think Bitstamp would want to do this is to proofread their non-native English. 2. You must be willing to work on "spec" (i.e. speculation). That means 0% up front, and you may not get paid at all. I'm not sure if Bitstamp is going to accept the English translations. If they do, however, you will get paid next week when final payments go out. Please also note that final payments for all translators won't be sent until a couple days after we finish on Sunday. Probably around Tuesday, but it all depends on how long it takes Bitstamp to accept and credit the account. |
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Can do a English <-> Portuguese work, if still needed.
Portuguese is already done. |
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I can do English to french.
Contact me thru PM to work things with me.
French is 99% done already :/ |
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All right folks, here we go with round 2! Rate: 1 BTC per 200 "translations for export" as defined on the crowdin.net site. 50% payout when the work is done, 50% when Bitstamp verifies and accepts the translations. How to get started: PM me to get credentials for my crowdin account. Include the language(s) you want to translate. Quality matters. Please only translate languages for which you have expertise. If I or Bitstamp discover that you are using crappy machine translations, I will not pay you and do my best to publicly ostracize you as well  . Schedule: We will work until this Sunday, July 28th at midnight UTC. |
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What about English? 30%?  How does this work? Wish I knew exactly what the scoop was with that one. Maybe it's for proofreading their English? I'm still not sure if they credit anything for that. |
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Bull crap. I will defend TradeFortress until I die. Not a scammer. Legit. CoinChat is legit. Inputs.io is legit. Ripple scam is legit. Glados.cc is legit. TradeFortress is legit. 'Nuff said.
BFL is not a scam. They only take years to release miners. It keeps the price from changing dramatically.
You sir, are a moron.
Meanwhile the ripple scam is blowing over, and the despicable shill that started this entire thread is much less vocal. So I guess we can forget about this for now, until MrShills find some new shady "business" to push much to the amusement of non noobs. +1 |
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what will your regular prices be for black membership?
"Black" will be $5,000/year. Currently you get any "lifetime" membership for the 1-year cost. If you do the math, you will find they are a super deal. Meanwhile everyone, including non-members, will likely appreciate the ability to *make* 0.1% commission when posting orders. It's a nice deal relative to your regular prices. But it's asking a lot to speculate that Atlas will ever get the volume for this $5k to ever pay itself back. Is trading live on your site? I can't tell without putting in my social security number.. |
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We finished round 1 on Sunday, with about 2600 translations and 26 BTC paid out.
I would potentially like to do another round, however I may only be able to pay about half the previous rate. So the new rate would be 1 BTC per 200 translations. It would be great to know if you all are still interested at that lower rate.
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what will your regular prices be for black membership?
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When are we getting a VWAP (or some other mechanism) to set the clearing price? While I'm not personally very concerned as far as my own trading, a better mechanism would add to the legitimacy of the exchange. This is in response to akwfleaspirit, who, while certainly misinformed about a lot, is right that it's way too easy to manipulate the clearing price.
A "clearing cross" like NYSE's open/close crosses might help, and as a bonus you can put in margin called positions so they have access to the hopefully greater liquidity. It's also an established point in time to do lots of liquidity - if you can get traders to gather at these times, you may see more trading overall. A good cross can also simplify trading for those who don't want to babysit their limit orders.
I was under the impression that BTCUSD futures were already cleared with mtgox vwap. |
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Allright, I believe that the correct equation for the JD-standard deviation is:  For an individual bet, sqrt(p * (1 - p)) is the expected standard deviation of the chance to win. The expected standard deviation of the return is obtained by simply multiplying by the expected return, which is 0.99 * b. Summation of standard deviations for independent random variables is done through taking the root of the sum of the squares. Each term is multiplied by how often it occurs (c). That brings me to the numbers obtained from the dataset posted by dooglus: # of bets = 33,257,221 (currently posted on site: 33,524,569) Total BTC bet = 556,351 (currently posted on site: 557,909) Expected BTC return for gamblers = 550,787 Expected house profit = 5564 (if only ...) Expected house edge = 1.0000881% Expected standard deviation of amount returned to gamblers = 2754 Current house profit is at -228 BTC, which is 2.1 times the standard deviation away from the expectation value. If the profit follows a normal distribution, the probability of this deviation occurring through sheer chance is approximately 2.5%. Conclusion: The site has been very unlucky, but the deviation is not large enough to be implausible. Thanks for this analysis! Can any other statistically minded folk comment / confirm? |
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but with 550,000 btc gambled, the expected house take right now is about 5500 coins, right?
Has anyone calculated out standard devs and such?
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I think Just Dice is awesome just like it is, and would love to see what happens over the next several months if it remains relatively stable as-is.
My one concern is whether or not it's game-able (through poor random number generation, for example). There's enough money at stake that many folks are bound to try.
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