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This is clearly a dead cat bounce. Remember 450$ bounce? It is the same thing. Dont say I didn't warn you.
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Ok you guys are all right and I am wrong. 1 BTC will be worth 1000$.
I will wait until I am skeleton.
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First of all I would like to start this off by stating that I am a believer in the possibility of the success of Bitcoin. This may seem like a contradiction with the title of the thread but it is not. This is because the possibility of success is very low due to the reasons which I am going to describe. At the moment bitcoin is 250$ and has been there for quite a while. Exchanges such as cryptsy, poloniex, btc-e, ect. exist to exchange btc to usd and btc to other alt coins. Circle and coinbase exchange btc to usd and are currently common way to receive USD from BTC. That is a brief summary of the current ecosystem.
Now let us imagine that bitcoin reaches "the moon" as is often wished for in the Bitcoin community. Let us imagine that one BTC is worth 1 million dollars. It is commonly accepted that these exchanges, cryptsy, poloniex, btc-e, circle, coinbase, ect. are for profit. They are not running their businesses out of altruism, but for profit. If one bitcoin is worth one million dollars, how is it remotely imaginable that these exchanges will not just run off with the coins? Even more if I have one btc at one million dollars, I will have to go through some sort of intermediary to receive my USD. This intermediary will run off with the coin because of its massive value.
The issue is a facet of human nature, greed. One bitcoin would not even have to reach 1 million usd for the above scenario to become a reality. How high does btc have to go? The 1k mark was enough for mt gox, 2k...would there still be trust? Would they all run off with the BTC? Ok how about 40k?
This is the problem of bitcoin. People steal. Especially when it is irreversible.
By the time we arrive to 1 000 000 $, the exchanges will be more professionnal and they will make so much that they will benefit staying in activity. Owners should be well known and trusted. yeah then satoshi comes back and dumps all his btc crashing the price. |
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good luck sending your usd into a bank. Over 10,000 and they report it, and funds have already been frozen for being bitcoin related.
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OP mentioned Circle. Isn't Circle insured? So if you lose your BTC's with them you are guaranteed to get it back up to $100,000 or something?
I'm saying Circle would just run off with all the btc they had if the price exploded. By your logic today's large banks should just run off with everyone's fiat funds, the bankers disappearing to some small Caribbean island or something after some plastic surgery. There is more profit to be made simply staying in business (especially if bitcoin grows so greatly), than in a one-off crime. Not to mention the risk (given the permanence of blockchain records, absolutely untraceable mixing of huge quantities would be a challenge) that they will eventually be tracked down and caught. no just convert it all to dark coin then back to btc. Nonsense. Look at the market cap of Darkcoin compared to BTC, much less if BTC market cap explodes. Trying to launder it that way would would just leave a trail anyone could follow in the end. And they'd need to use exchanges to make the BTC/altcoin trades; it is in the self-interest of the exchanges to fully cooperate with authorities to snag such a criminal so that the value of their cryptocurrencies is upheld. They all go out of business if BTC fails as you suggest. So the criminals in your scenario would have a LOT of enemies, people wanting to track them down, people pretending to cooperate or do business with them only so they could turn them in. The only thing they could do is sit on their precious bitcoin stash untouched while their conscience and regret eat them alive. The bottom line is your logic is flawed. It presumes that people will never resist temptation, and treats self-respecting business people the same as the two-bit scammers who found opportunities in the first phases of bitcoin development. It ignores the ongoing shift towards professional businesses dominating the bitcoin ecosystem. You will never see another sort like Mark Karpeles having such an outsized level of control on people's bitcoins. It is in the self interests of the exchanges to take all the coins and disappear. History repeats itself. |
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OP mentioned Circle. Isn't Circle insured? So if you lose your BTC's with them you are guaranteed to get it back up to $100,000 or something?
I'm saying Circle would just run off with all the btc they had if the price exploded. By your logic today's large banks should just run off with everyone's fiat funds, the bankers disappearing to some small Caribbean island or something after some plastic surgery. There is more profit to be made simply staying in business (especially if bitcoin grows so greatly), than in a one-off crime. Not to mention the risk (given the permanence of blockchain records, absolutely untraceable mixing of huge quantities would be a challenge) that they will eventually be tracked down and caught. no just convert it all to dark coin then back to btc. |
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OP mentioned Circle. Isn't Circle insured? So if you lose your BTC's with them you are guaranteed to get it back up to $100,000 or something?
I'm saying Circle would just run off with all the btc they had if the price exploded. |
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Strange logic, should world banks all close because they have billions of customer dollar?  No because the banks are already robbing us blind. |
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I don't agree with OP but there is a reason I don't trade Bitcoin much via exchanges and that is because of the bad luck so far. It just takes 1 rotten apple to spoil the bowl. If I need to sell bitcoin, I do it locally and privately.
The problem with OP is that, based on his post, he would like to steer towards a centralized system backed by a reputable source(ie a bank handling these exchanges). Would this take away from what Bitcoin is? Well I don't think so. These exchanges need just as much information from you before you can use their services. They charge fees. Some give small amounts of interest. But when you wake up the next day, your local bank will be there, your online exchange might not be.
This alone is NOT a reason as to bitcoin cannot succeed.
You make it seem bitcoin is only for investors. Its not. Fiat is not only for investors. Its an exchange tool. Its worth something and can be exchanged for goods. I love buying things with my bitcoins, especially what I've mined.
You better not let anybody know you mine bitcoins then. If bitcoins reach a million a piece there will be people looking to kidnap you. I am not trying to make you afraid, just aware of human nature. |
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Someone should collect all these poorly reasoned "why bitcoin will fail" threads with the best rebuttals to each. Then whenever someone regurgitates them we can just point them to the rebuttal FAQ and otherwise ignore the trolling.
If bitcoin goes to the moon it won't happen in a day. The exchanges, over the long run, stand more to gain by being honest then by stealing a limited amount at any one point. The really big winners will be the dominant bitcoin exchanges that have earned their trust, much as large banks today earn more profits than criminals that rob people or businesses of fiat. And that ignores the wild possibility that some people will resist temptation and will behave ethically, passing on the opportunity to run off with your money.
tell that to mtgox |
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An extremely high value of bitcoin would render it virtually unusable. Even escrows could not be trusted.
0.00000150 BTC (for example) might be worth a Dollar or two, instead of virtually nothing: Will that cause you (or anyone else) to steal my little $1? An exchange that is currently trusted with ~$2 Million USD could still have similar value, but be holding a much smaller number of BTC (after honoring withdrawal requests) There are many other examples which show that Bitcoin will still be useable. How are you going to trade 150 satoshi when the transaction fee is .0001 |
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An extremely high value of bitcoin would render it virtually unusable. Even escrows could not be trusted.
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First of all I would like to start this off by stating that I am a believer in the possibility of the success of Bitcoin. This may seem like a contradiction with the title of the thread but it is not. This is because the possibility of success is very low due to the reasons which I am going to describe. At the moment bitcoin is 250$ and has been there for quite a while. Exchanges such as cryptsy, poloniex, btc-e, ect. exist to exchange btc to usd and btc to other alt coins. Circle and coinbase exchange btc to usd and are currently common way to receive USD from BTC. That is a brief summary of the current ecosystem.
Now let us imagine that bitcoin reaches "the moon" as is often wished for in the Bitcoin community. Let us imagine that one BTC is worth 1 million dollars. It is commonly accepted that these exchanges, cryptsy, poloniex, btc-e, circle, coinbase, ect. are for profit. They are not running their businesses out of altruism, but for profit. If one bitcoin is worth one million dollars, how is it remotely imaginable that these exchanges will not just run off with the coins? Even more if I have one btc at one million dollars, I will have to go through some sort of intermediary to receive my USD. This intermediary will run off with the coin because of its massive value.
The issue is a facet of human nature, greed. One bitcoin would not even have to reach 1 million usd for the above scenario to become a reality. How high does btc have to go? The 1k mark was enough for mt gox, 2k...would there still be trust? Would they all run off with the BTC? Ok how about 40k?
This is the problem of bitcoin. People steal. Especially when it is irreversible.
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The .3 funds should have been added to the wallet which would have given the wallet enough to pay out the .4. I dont understand your point. I should have been paid.
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When the .3 bet expired the .3 was not added to the pot to pay out the .4 above it. This goes against what was posted in the OP and what the site operator has said himself. What gives? For the record that was my bet and I expected the .3 to pay out the .4, the wallet would have enough to pay out the .4 if the .3 was added to it, as was advertised. Please respond. From the op "Although Nine9 do not take the expired transactions coins they are left in the game to pay out the active transactions of players!" So, actually it's like when the TXNs expire, it's like a new round started already?
Exactly! I mean that when the previous txns expire, then it's a good chance for anyone to get in and get paid?
The difficulty is lowered as the system no longer needs to pay out those expired TX's so yes chances are increased. Also, what about those expired transactions? Are those funds kept by you or are they used to pay the next line?
The funds are not taken by Nine9, they are left in the system to pay out the next in line etc. (Stated in OP as well I believe) Happy to answer any more questions or queries that you or anyone has, just fire away. These are the current stats. Total BTC Deposited: 60.22356755 BTC Progress to next payout: 0.24023589 / 0.52020000 As you can see, if the .3 was added to the wallet it would be able to pay out the .4 bet.  |
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If we let the .3 and .4 expire it will all collapse. People will lose confidence in the game. So far only small amounts have expired.
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the whole world doesn't exist in the united states kid. There are other countries with more freedom.
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all those btc got saved. seems like a good time to go in.
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Op you are a prophet and a genius. Hold up selling all my bitcoins you beautiful teller of truth.....
NOT
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