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1  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / The math behind confirmations? on: June 01, 2022, 07:43:15 PM
Can you guys help me understand the math behind 6 confirmations? I have read that at 6 confirmations there is less than a 0.1% chance of a successful attack but I cannot remember where I read that. I have always wondered why the standard of waiting for confirmations to prevent a double spend attack was always 6 confirmations. I am aware that some places do allow at least 1 confirmation but if you accept 1 confirmation what percentage difference compared to 6 confirmations would I be taking a big risk by accepting 1 confirmations compared to 6?.

I've searched around the internet and most just say that it reduces the chances but the exact numbers haven't been declared. For someone who might be developing a Bitcoin payment system or accepting Bitcoin on their website or for a service this should probably be more clear than it is. We should not blindly trust because it is the standard. I do not doubt that the standard has solid reasons I am more intrigued on why we have come up with that magic number. Does 6 confirmations reduce an attack by >99%?

I ask because the wiki is no longer up to date but this information was answered before on there. Take this quote as an example:

Transactions with 0/unconfirmed can be reversed with not too much cost via Finney attack and race attack, but in some cases may still be acceptable especially for low-value goods and services, or ones which can be clawed back.

For transactions with confirmations, the website (https://people.xiph.org/~greg/attack_success.html) can be used to calculate the probability of a successful doublespend given a hashrate proportion and number of confirmations. Note that in the reality of bitcoin mining today, more than 6 confirmations are required. (60 confirmations to have <1% odds of succeeding against an entity with 40% hash power). See Section 11 of the (https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf bitcoin whitepaper) for the AttackerSuccessProbability formula.
The only problem with this quote is that it talks about more confirmations preventing an attack which I understand but it talks about up to 60 confirmations to fully mitigate the attack so why are we using a 6 confirmation standard when there is still a chance of an attack succeeding is it because it is so low chance that it realistically will never happen?

The reference https://people.xiph.org/~greg/attack_success.html returns a error and does not have the information any more.

Running some results, we can see the probability drop off exponentially with z.
q=0.1
z=0 P=1.0000000
z=1 P=0.2045873
z=2 P=0.0509779
z=3 P=0.0131722
z=4 P=0.0034552
z=5 P=0.0009137
z=6 P=0.0002428
z=7 P=0.0000647
z=8 P=0.0000173
z=9 P=0.0000046
z=10 P=0.0000012
q=0.3
z=0 P=1.0000000
z=5 P=0.1773523
z=10 P=0.0416605
z=15 P=0.0101008
z=20 P=0.0024804
z=25 P=0.0006132
z=30 P=0.0001522
z=35 P=0.0000379
z=40 P=0.0000095
z=45 P=0.0000024
z=50 P=0.0000006
Solving for P less than 0.1%...
P < 0.001
q=0.10 z=5
q=0.15 z=8
q=0.20 z=11
q=0.25 z=15
q=0.30 z=24
q=0.35 z=41
q=0.40 z=89
q=0.45 z=340

The Bitcoin whitepaper has this information which I assume is related to confirmations but this does not make any sense to me. What is Satoshi trying to say here?
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 31, 2022, 12:16:42 AM
Probably bounce between $31,700 - $32,000. If we break this by tomorrow I see us going to around $35,000 for a while. It is whether there is enough push to get through this stubborn 32,000
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2021, 04:19:03 PM
If BTC hits 250k$, I will achieve financial freedom. Cheesy
I think everyone in the thread would achieve financial freedom if it hit that high. I have had my hopes reinvigorated recently because of the rise of Bitcoin price it really was a bad time for me when it hit the lows we were seeing. I held onto my Bitcoin just in case it recovered but I will be honest I was not expecting it to but I was in a bad place. I am glad that I was proven wrong it recovered and hoping now it will rally to new heights.  

If I was to ask everyone here the realistic chance of it reaching 250k do you think it will happen and when?
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Michael Saylor Says Bitcoin is Hope For Canada on: August 17, 2021, 04:16:55 PM
This will help Canada's development. They may want to get rid of government control.
However, people consider the power supply in winter and worry about the governance of the green environment. Will resources be wasted.
Because one of Quebec’s main heat sources  afaik is electricity.

If resources are wasted, then this will be banned.
Miners will be encouraged to use green energy in Canada because of these reasons. The electricity is not cheap in Canada because of its isolated location. I think the heat sources are different depending on where you live in Canada if you live in the North then we use wood fires.
5  Economy / Exchanges / Re: +44-8004049463 Bitcoin Support Number on: December 02, 2017, 02:28:18 PM
I've contacted their support about whether they allow phone calls and if this is their number. We'll soon find out whether this is legit or not. I very much doubt it is legit and would probably result in the person trying to use social engineering techniques against you to get into your wallet.
6  Other / Meta / Re: Satoshi IP Address on: December 02, 2017, 02:26:01 PM
It wouldn't be fair to do this in my opinion. If you had  your IP address leaked without your consent whether it was Tor or not you would probably kick up a fuss. Just because SAtoshi is worshiped around here I don't think he should be treated any different regarding privacy.
7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Too late to invest in cryptos if you're old? on: November 16, 2017, 01:23:10 PM
I don't think age has much of an impact you can still gain in the short term depending on the amount that you can invest. Hopefully Bitcoin in the short term can reach a bigger price than it is now.
8  Economy / Economics / Re: Is bitcoin a good way to invest your money ? on: October 29, 2017, 04:19:35 PM
Yes,  it is. We will get more profit if we invest our bitcoin. The price of bitcoin will be increased  time to time.

it's not guaranteed to generate anything but giving the history of the Bitcoin price is that eventually it will keep on rising and with the amount of Bitcoins available getting less every day will only help the price.
9  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin regaining dominance. on: October 29, 2017, 04:18:15 PM
Bitcoin has never lost it's dominance. It's always been the most worth while cryptocurrency and always had the most valued. Many alt coins I think there is 1000 alt coins now listed on coinmarket and they are all directly competing with Bitcoin but none of even close to the value of Bitcoin
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is here and it's here to stay on: October 29, 2017, 04:16:42 PM
Bitcoin has had it's ups and it's downs the past few years but its really proved throughout all of the FUD the hacks and the generally negative limelight it's received that it's no joke. A lot of people were afraid of the first hard fork but since Bitcoin has retained it's value and is still growing stronger day by day.
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Amazon to accept Bitcoin? on: October 29, 2017, 04:13:25 PM
Only good things could of Amazon accepting Bitcoin both for it's businesses as well as for the users of Bitcoin. But there hasn't been any official word that this is true. Let's hope though because I think this is what we need to increase the exposure of Bitcoin and stop people claiming it to be "play" money.
12  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Unconfirmed Bitcoin Transaction Stuck Up (How To Fix ?) on: October 29, 2017, 04:10:35 PM
What sort of transaction fee did you send? Normally you can estimate how long it's going to take by the amount that you sent. You could try the free services which speed it up if you haven't got a too low of a fee.
13  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Most promising ICO and why? on: October 29, 2017, 04:09:21 PM
Etherum and Waves are currently the most promising in the over saturated world of alt coins.
14  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Do you research the company before participating in a bounty? on: October 29, 2017, 04:08:38 PM
I will in the future and I believe anyone who is participating and effectively advertising for them should make sure they aren't a scam.
15  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Where do you hold your coins? on: October 29, 2017, 04:07:39 PM
I store my coins in desktop wallets as they are the most secure at the moment and the only way to keep them. I would wary of any online services.
16  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Gold (BTG) on: October 29, 2017, 04:06:45 PM
I just can't understand the hype for BGold. Seems to me to be just an attempt to jump on the Bitcoin fork hype train.

Looking at this comparison chart it becomes clear to me which coin I prefere:



It's only got hype because anyone who held Bitcoin got a free coin for nothing and was able to make some money on it. But theymos the owner of the forum even called it out as a scam and he doesn't normally get involved in alt coins .
17  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Sell alts for Bitcoin on: October 29, 2017, 04:05:38 PM
I normally look just for a weekly profit and withdraw at that point and then look to another coin most of these coins now days will fail anyway. Then I convert my earnings to Bitcoin
18  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Buy altcoins or not? on: October 29, 2017, 04:04:46 PM
I really only hold a few alt coins but I normally invest in ICO or new alt coins and then later cash out and convert to Bitcoin or Waves
19  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Etherium Buying on: October 29, 2017, 04:04:08 PM
Search up ethereum exchanges in this forum and through google and you'll find a few which deal with it.
20  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: How to make a own coin? on: October 29, 2017, 04:03:10 PM
Your going to need to have knowledge on the network as well as be able to code. You could alternatively hire a few developers and be the project leader. Your going to need some unique ideas otherwise the coin will fail just like all the others.
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