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181  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: September 30, 2013, 11:21:16 AM

If the site manage his bankroll correctly (Kelly criterion) then even if the whale has infinite money then the house edge will eventually get all his money. Trying to always get more players like a casino do is virtually gambling against infinite money.

1) It will over time.
2) The probability is higher that the investment will grow.
3) Divesting when there is more betting volume only reduce profit over time.



Assuming that he will bet over and over, which is wrong.
He will always stopped when he got a profit, and considering variance, and his bankroll, it will always happen sooner or later.

When exactly did he stop? Last I heard he is still playing. Stopping one day then coming back another day change nothing. It's one long session and even if he quit then another whale will probably come during the lifetime of the casino.
182  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: September 30, 2013, 11:16:42 AM
if the rolls are truly random, then there is no such thing as 'timing your invest/divest', right? so day trading is merely limiting your exposure to shorter amounts of time.

an investors EV is still positive if they day trade, just based off of less wagered.

the whole point of day trading is either reduction in exposure to variance, gamblers fallacy, or the belief that a gambler is in fact cheating.

I see very little down side to day trading at JD.




If you know that someone has 10k euros.
That the website bankroll is 10 euros, and every investors has like 1 cent.

When you see the big guy gambling you should divest and invest when he finish ...
Because you know that:
1) there is no way on earth the 10 euros bankroll will destroy his 10k bankroll.
2) your 1 cent investment will take 10 / 20 / 30 % lost in a few hours.
3) you can make money but investing/divesting at the coorect time

If the house manage the bankroll correctly (Kelly criterion) then even if the whale has infinite money, the house edge will eventually get all the money. Trying to always get more players like a casino do is virtually gambling against infinite money.

1) It will over time.
2) The probability is higher that the investment will grow.
3) Divesting when there is more betting volume only reduce profit over time.

Investing/divesting strategy is a gambler fallacy unless you want to reduce variance (and profit) over time.
183  Other / Off-topic / Re: My Internet Speed is 10kbps?? on: September 29, 2013, 11:11:05 PM
Could be all sorts of things.

Who's your ISP? How are you downloading (torrent, web browser download, through some download manager)? Do you use proxies? Are you running any programs which consume a significant amount of bandwidth while downloading (web browsing, Bitcoin client, Skype)? What was the latency of the connection, as measured by speedtest?
ISP: Centurylink
How downloading: Web browser download
Proxy: No
Programs: Not other then the web browser
Latency: 69 ms


You got throttled by your ISP. Try using vpn or tor, and you'll get your max speed.
Maybe a VPN but not Tor.  Wink

OP, I doubled my download speed from 5 to 10Mbps (max for my plan) by disabling the QoS in my router.
184  Economy / Gambling / Re: Casinobit - LIVE ROULETTE - [INVEST] - BEST CASINO OF 2013 on: September 29, 2013, 07:10:05 PM
FREE HUGS!
185  Other / Off-topic / Re: Are you male or female? on: September 29, 2013, 03:30:02 PM


/thread
186  Other / Off-topic / Re: Are you male or female? on: September 28, 2013, 07:42:01 PM
"Other" option is missing.
187  Other / Off-topic / Re: VPS - Advantages and Disadvantages? on: September 28, 2013, 02:30:29 PM
My VPS has better ping, bandwitch and uptime than my home connection.
188  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 8000+ unconfirmed transactions by 1 address with many double spends!? on: September 28, 2013, 11:18:51 AM
That's crazy, so an address that the private key is publicly known for has a balance of 0.0764025 that's stuck by the logjam of people trying to claim it?

Wait what?! I can claim a bit of it? How?!
By joining the thousand unconfirmed transaction queue.
189  Other / Off-topic / Re: I just scored a 43 on... on: September 28, 2013, 01:13:45 AM
Well, the game is no longer available to me, so that was all folks.
Try google.ca  Wink
190  Other / Off-topic / Re: I just scored a 43 on... on: September 28, 2013, 01:09:05 AM
Damn can't do better than 176

191  Other / Off-topic / Re: Programming in Python on: September 28, 2013, 12:46:32 AM
I'm now also registered to an initiation course to C++ but it's in french: https://www.coursera.org/course/intro-cpp-fr

I'm already semi-fluent in C++ but only learnt via source code reading and working on small projects. Maybe it will help me to start from the beginning, then there is a part 2 course for more advanced students.  
192  Economy / Economics / Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble? on: September 27, 2013, 10:13:37 PM
Antarctica
193  Economy / Gambling / Re: [CRACK]-PRIME DICE CRACK/MATH CYPHER on: September 27, 2013, 11:15:42 AM
Quote
how did he do it?
He played a game of chance.
194  Other / Off-topic / Re: Programming in Python on: September 27, 2013, 12:22:59 AM
I'm in! I think python is a good multi-purpose language.
195  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: Whats everyone doing with their GPU now? on: September 26, 2013, 10:24:55 PM
Training to get the Guiness Book World Record for throwing a graphic card on the longest distance.
196  Economy / Gambling / Re: Casinobit - LIVE ROULETTE - [INVEST] - BEST CASINO OF 2013 on: September 26, 2013, 09:48:29 PM
I think you will get your initial investment and nothing more.
197  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: September 26, 2013, 09:46:31 PM
Yup, since doog seems persistent to keep the max bet lower, I'd like to also request for at least 0.5% max bet for the time being.

While I work on the change, I am happy to put the max profit back up to 0.5%.  Half Kelly seems like a reasonable compromise.

How do I do this in a way that doesn't piss anyone off?  Changes without notice are "out of order".  Where do I announce it?  I don't have any way of contacting most of the investors.

Do I just post here "max profit will be adjusted to 0.5% of bankroll at (midnight tonight, UTC)" and leave it at that?  How much notice does it need?  That's only 2 hours away, and so probably not long enough.

What about "midnight pacific"?  That's 9 hours away.

Thoughts?  How much notice do people need?  And where's a good place to put such annoucements?
Maybe put a notice on the front page of JD website?
198  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Should I pay my Traffic Tickets? on: September 26, 2013, 09:32:06 PM
I don't get caught when speeding. Well, only once in 12 years  Grin
199  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: [LEGAL] 30gh/s MinerD Botnet ? on: September 26, 2013, 09:26:14 PM
That being said since these are windows machines and wont be logged in most normal mining software wont be ableto be run in background.  You need to make it into a server for windows that could be run background and with service controls set to make sure this service is low priority should allow what you need.  Thing is you'll need someone with some windows programming nohow to wrap the existing miners as a service.  Most are simple dos type apps so should be easy enough.  There may even be some app out in the wild that does this already.

I'm pretty sure you can install the miner as a service via the registry:

Quote
HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\System\CurrentControlSet\Services

Or via command line:
Code:
path\INSTSRV.EXE My Service path\SRVANY.EXE
http://support.microsoft.com/kb/137890

You won't need to login for the software to start when the system boot. You only need a wrapper to control the intensity when the computer isn't idle and hide the miner in the background. Maybe it's even possible to recompile CGminer with CPU support and use the auto-intensity feature.
200  Other / Off-topic / Re: Secure ways to comunicate? on: September 26, 2013, 07:52:09 PM
Use CB or Ham Radio
You forgot about encryption and unless the law is different than in Canada, it requires a special license to do so on radio wave.
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