Holy hell guys...I just responded to 70+ requests for information and have at least 6 responses confirming refunds to add to the list.
I've gotta do a little work (yea, I've got a grown up job), but will respond to any more requests that come in around lunch time. Keep em coming!!!
Glad to hear you are earning a nice side income through "refund consulting" tips.  |
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overall miners are rational and will only keep buying hardware until they reach the point of marginal profitability within a given period (investment horizon).
Your assumption overlooks the fact that actors can make rational decisions that are not in their interest due to the action of others. Consider the Prisoner's dilemma and how it applies to miners choosing to purchase or not purchase hardware in aggregate: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemmaIn the case of mining hardware purchases, the choice is cooperate (don't purchase hardware) or defect (purchase hardware). If a miner purchases new hardware and most other miners do not, the miner can potentially profit. If a miner purchases new hardware and most other miners do as well, difficulty goes up to the point that mining is unprofitable for all participants by the time the hardware arrives. This is the game we are playing and will continue to play until difficulty levels off and profitability for the majority of miners returns. |
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WARNING:
My high tech team analyzed the Bitcoin industry rigorously and found that it is only worth it if you purchase 1+ Terahash or more Bitcoin miner, most of them won't ship until December 2013 or later.
The difficulty will be well over 500,000,000 millions soon. At that difficulty, it will render all of your Bitcoin miners useless.
You would be better of just buy the Bitcoins out right, then to mine them.
Said one prisoner to the other "Just don't squeal and we'll be okay!" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma |
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The current market for ASICs only makes sense if you assume that a large percentage of buyers are actually acting irrationally. It's a weird market to predict now.
As I discussed in another thread, miners/buyers may be acting quite rationally in this market and yet the result will still be a negative outcome due to aggregate behavior: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286978.msg3074366#msg3074366 |
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Anybody who buys hardware at more than ROI is taking a MASSIVE gamble that difficulty is going to drop, or at least remain flat... Unfortunately for them, there seems to be no shortage of people willing to take that bet, and so difficulty continues to climb...  I like your analysis, especially this last part. The core question is, why do people continue to take that bet? What we are seeing here is an iterated form of the Prisoner's Dilemma which encourages players, who are trying to act rationally in their own self interest, not to cooperate with other players and thus we end up in a net destructive situation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemmaSpecifically if we look at a prospective miner's choices, they boil down to: Don't buy mining equipment - (Cooperate) Do buy mining equipment - (Defect) Obviously, if a single miner bought equipment (defected) and the rest of the mining world chose not to (cooperated), that sole miner would win hugely with massive ROI. But since ALL (or a majority of) miners choose to buy equipment (defect), the net result is that in each round of equipment purchases the majority of miners end up suffering a loss (negative ROI). It is then up to miners who lost in that round to choose whether they want to purchase again in the next round, again risking negative ROI. This game will continue to iterate until the players with negative ROI drop out of the game due to lack of funds or lack of desire to play and only players with positive ROI remain (I'm ignoring hobby miners here). |
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What about Batch #3.... Oh yeah, that's right. They will NEVER reach break even thanks to Avalon's 3 month delay in delivery. The only path to break even was a refund. |
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Only hope is for BTC to go up
Even then, you would have been better off to just buy BTC directly rather than a miner. |
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for me already for an hour right now...
[update]
OKE. It's running again!
It's bouncing up and down like a pole dancer.... unstable, but interesting. |
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Looks like it was a short outage at Black Lotus. Everything ran incredibly slow and I could barely load their support website.
Seems OK again now though.
EDIT: I spoke too soon. Still instability with their network.
Yep - I've been automatically failed over to a different pool for at least 15 minutes now. Bitminter pool is in trouble. |
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Not a single refund yet. Bitsyncom, care to explain what is going on?
It's simple really: Bitsyncom does not have sufficient funds available to provide the refund at this time. What other possible explanation could there be? (I'm all ears) If this is true, the only ones who will ever see their money back (even if it is less than 100% ROI) are the ones who took delivery. |
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Do you think that is like that? Is this the begining of a bitcoin mafia? In the case that finally this is proved to be like this, is there any way that this could be illegal? As they are dealing with virtual currencies there is very little legislation regarding this...
No one is stopping you from starting your own ASIC mining hardware company. If there was someone trying to stop you, or regulate the creation of ASIC mining hardware out of existence, THAT would be the mafia. No, it is still a free market as far as I can see, and very competitive. |
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The luck today blows...Somebody save us!
No kidding!  |
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I was just wondering with the increasing difficulty why the demand is still there for some seemingly high priced (though somewhat readily available) miners that don't seem like they can break even.
Because emotion and greed appear to overpower rational thought and impair basic math skills. |
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You can rent an appartement for a flatrateprice indeed, but when the owner gets the electricitybill someday he will either raise the rent for it or kick you out ;-)
Also most leases have a clause in them about "not running a business" in your unit. The electric bill plus an inspection of your unit will quickly provide all the evidence the landlord needs to sue your ass (and/or confiscate your entire security deposit) for breach of the lease contract. |
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I didn't know that electrum is that awesome!  It takes some hours until I finished the download of the blockchain. You can create a wallet at blockchain.info and import the private keys from your electrum wallet if you need access to your funds immediately. Otherwise, sadly yes you will have to wait for a fix. |
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FYI: Recent electrum servers are reported to have gotten stuck when attempting to parse Block 251526. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=271761This is preventing clients from seeing or processing any new transactions. No workaround reported yet. |
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def script_GetOp(bytes):
i = 0
while i < len(bytes):
vch = None
opcode = ord(bytes[i])
i += 1
if opcode >= opcodes.OP_SINGLEBYTE_END:
opcode <<= 8
opcode |= ord(bytes[i])
Apparently there is an issue in script_GetOp(bytes) (deserialize.py) for this particular block that makes the electrum server code read off the end of the byte array when trying to read the operation. I don't know if this is an issue with the format of this specific block or with the python code. If it's an issue with the block format I'm surprised it has gone undetected this long - apparently bitcoind code permitted/accepted this block. |
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