There are no fundamental reasons for a price rise as a direct result of the halving. The biggest factors affecting the price will be increased awareness of Bitcoin caused by the event, irrational expectations, and all the hype between now and then.

Because the expectations of a price increase are a major factor, the conditions are ripe for a bubble. My expectation for the upcoming halving is that the price will behave exactly as it did with Litecoin's halving last year. That is, a bubble that pops just before the halving.

My belief is that the timing of the bursting of the bubble depends on how quickly the price rises and at what point enough people believe it is a bubble. If it rises very quickly, as Litecoin did, then the bubble will burst before the halving. It is more subdued, then the bubble will burst after the halving when the halving disappoints and people cash in.

There is always a chance that there will be no bubble. There is also a good chance that other external events affect the price more than the halving hysteria.

My primary assumption is that the price will rise over the long term, so I have bought a large amount and I continue to buy when I can. Whether I take advantage of a bubble or not, I will come out ahead if my assumption is correct.
 
But, this is how I plan to take advantage of a bubble:

When the price starts to go crazy I will start selling. After every 20% increase in price, I sell 10% of my bitcoins. At the top of the bubble, I will have many fewer bitcoins and a lot of cash. Even if the bubble doesn't pop, I am still way ahead.

But, the bubble will pop and the price will plummet. And when that happens, after every 20% price decrease, I buy back 10% of my bitcoins. At the bottom, I will have more bitcoins and more cash than when I started.

Here is an example. Starting with 10 bitcoins, the price jumps to $500 and it looks like a bubble, it continues to about $1000, and then it drops to $800 and I start selling.

Sell on the way up:

Price	BTC	$	Total Value
$500	10.00	$0	$5000
$600	9.09	$545	$5999
$720	8.26	$1140	$7137
$864	7.51	$1789	$8278
$1037	6.83	$2497	$9580

But, it's a bubble... Buy on the way down:

Price	BTC	$	Total Value
$800	6.83	$2497	$7961
$667	7.51	$2041	$7050
$556	8.26	$1623	$6215
$463	9.09	$1241	$5450

The result with this buy/sell strategy is that you are ahead of where you would be if you did nothing, no matter what happens.

It is interesting that they point to problems in the fiat currency system as a source of friction in the Bitcoin system.

Solution: abandon fiat currency

It has been done before. In 2001, the U.S. sent checks for $300 - $600 to every taxpayer.

Also, if it is going to happen, I think it is better to give the money directly to people rather to banks as it is currently done.

It's not Bitcoin or anything like Bitcoin. It's just an electronic version of their currency.

No. It is not a major concern.

Despite what you have heard, most traders lose money, especially the inexperienced ones.

"Buy low, sell high" is not a rule or a method. It is a requirement. If you can successfully buy low and sell high, you will have a profit. Otherwise, you will have a loss.

Here are some more helpful "rules" in the trading world:

"There ain't no such thing as a free lunch".

"If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy."

It was a an attempt to trademark "Bitcoin", not an attempt to patent it.

Here is a an interesting angle. Is your asking you for money to help solve his problems, and promising to pay you back out of the hidden bank account?

Mr Felt must be dyslexic:

Even if the reduced production by miners or increased awareness or hype put upward pressure on the price, you have no idea if it is enough to cause the price to rise above what it is now by July.

For example, the price has been slowly dropping since the beginning of the year. What if it continues to fall? Then even if the halving does boost the price, you could still lose money.

Then people need to be educated. It doesn't matter if you can buy a whole bitcoin or not. If you want to buy $10 worth of bitcoins, you can buy $10 worth of bitcoins.


Just being an exponential increase is not a sufficient reason to horde. An exponential increase of 1% per year over 50 years is only 64% (compared to 50%).

Fears of widespread hording due to deflation are overblown. The average depreciation rate of the U.S. dollar over the last 100 years has been 3.22% (exponential, by the way), and we don't see widespread dumping of dollars. So, if Bitcoin's appreciation rate is 3.22%, we shouldn't expect widespread hording of bitcoins.

A 100% appreciation rate is unreasonable. I doubt that your predictions hold if the appreciation rate is 1%.

I don't know why someone would think that they can't get more bitcoins. You can buy them off an exchange whenever you want.

There is no way a computer (even using a graphics card) can mine more than 0.00001 BTC per day and you say your software can mine 20-50 times that.

It is a scam or a trojan.

The supply is not halved. Bitcoins are not consumed. The supply is greater now than before the previous halving, and it will be greater after the next halving than it is now.


If the price does not rise after the halving, then some miners will certainly stop mining. This will cause the difficulty to fall but it will not cause the price to rise.

The conspiracy mocking and downplaying shows up when the conspiracy has 0 evidence. It's all conjecture. Nobody can take it seriously.

What if Bitcoin is a really an NSA project?
What if Gavin works for the CIA?

Anyone can be a Lightning network "intermediary" and you don't need a Bitcoin full node. A "intermediary" that supplies liquidity to the network can charge a fee for that service.

Similarly, a full Bitcoin node could charge a fee for transaction and block data. There is no need to pay full nodes out of the block reward.

That article is just an advertisement for Satori disguised as an article.

The fee is not based on the amount of the transaction. It is based on the size of the transaction data. Priority is given to transactions with higher fee/byte.

The result is that it could cost you more than $0.05 to send $0.05.