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381  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 02, 2015, 12:32:51 AM
...
most ppl still have not caught onto the idea that Bitcoin is fundamentally about honesty and hope...

... the fact that bitcoin is used mainly to commit various flavors of crime? ...

... you have zero evidence for this shameful lie. You are just a propaganda shill for stupidly repeating it, calling it a "fact" makes you a prime AH.

Bitcoin is used no more, but probably less to "commit crime" than fiat currencies as a percentage of total bitcoin usage. In terms of total overall usage, cash USD by many orders of magnitude has the largest volume in criminal activity.

One might say it has been easier to identify crimes with Bitcoin, which is why there are so many instances of Bitcoin and "illegal" activity in the news. Many of the major scammers & criminals have been found and caught (Pirate's BS&T, Silk Road, etc).

So it is simply a matter of confirmation basis. It has been easier for the government to track down bitcoin transactions, than cash transactions, so there is more crime in the news on bitcoin.

Take the latest DEA and Secret Service theft. This happens ALL THE TIME, it is STANDARD in some districts. But now with Bitcoin they got caught. If you have been following this it is crazy how open and unprofessional the theft was. The only explanation is with cash and other physical assets it has been so easy to just pocket shit that government agents never even had to bother with being careful.

But with bitcoin they got caught (apparently because the government has already learned how to monitor/track the blockchain).

Is this crime a negative statement on bitcoin? Or is bitcoin simply bringing to light corruption that is already there. I believe it is the later.
382  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 31, 2015, 09:09:12 PM
Just to add another point to the above list:

Court accepts DOJ's 'state secrets' claim to protect shadowy neocons: A new low.

Quote from: Glenn Greenwald
But then something quite extraordinary happened: In September of last year, the U.S. government, which was not a party, formally intervened in the lawsuit, and demanded that the court refuse to hear Restis’s claims and instead dismiss the lawsuit against UANI before it could even start, on the ground that allowing the case to proceed would damage national security.

i didn't think it was possible but this makes the situation even worse.

And the MSM and every lefty I know is just silent because "their" guy is in office. What this means is the US has fully descended into tribalism, where no one focuses on objective facts and logic as they exist or on first principles, but instead only focus on if their "clan" is winning.

The R team is just as bad, but at least when they are in office everyone is suddenly against government overreach, whereas otherwise they'd be for it.
383  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 31, 2015, 08:39:35 PM
In other news the scramble for physical among central banks is just starting. If you look at the longer-term FED gold chart it looks even worse.

Gold In Fed Vault Drops Under 6,000 Tons For The First Time, After 10th Consecutive Month Of Redemptions
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-31/gold-fed-vault-drops-under-6000-tons-first-time-after-10th-consecutive-month-redempt

Obama the peace price winner needs to pick another country to start a war in so he can confiscate their gold too.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-10/was-price-ukraines-liberation-handover-its-gold-fed
384  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 31, 2015, 07:41:39 PM
My gaud;

The government’s considerable efforts at keeping this monumental scandal from being aired at Ross Ulbricht’s trial is itself scandalous. In addition to keeping any information about the investigation from the defense for nearly nine months, then revealing it only five weeks prior to trial, and then moving to keep sealed and secret the general underlying information so that Mr. Ulbricht could not use it in his defense at trial, and then stymying the defense at every turn during trial when the defense tried to introduce favorable evidence, the government had also refused to agree to the defense’s request to adjourn the trial until after the indictment was returned and made public – a modest adjournment of a couple of months, since it was apparent that the investigation was nearing a conclusion. Throughout Mr. Ulbricht’s trial the government repeatedly used the secret nature of the grand jury investigation as an excuse to preclude valuable defense evidence that was not only produced in discovery, independent of the investigation of Mr. Force, but also which was only at best tenuously related to that investigation. In that manner the government deprived the jury of essential facts, and Mr. Ulbricht of due process. In addition, the government failed to disclose previously much of what is in the Complaint, including that two federal law enforcement agents involved in the Silk Road investigation were corrupt. It is clear from this Complaint that fundamentally the government’s investigation of Mr. Ulbricht lacked any integrity, and was wholly and fatally compromised from the inside. Also, it is clear that Mr. Force and others within the government obtained access to the administrative platforms of the Silk Road site, where they were able to commandeer accounts and had the capacity to change PIN numbers and other aspects of the site – all without the government’s knowledge of what precisely they did with that access. In light of the information provided in the Complaint, it is now apparent to all just how relevant some of the issues raised by the defense at trial were, including the payment by Dread Pirate Roberts to a law enforcement agent for information about the investigation, the ramping up of the investigation of Mr. Ulbricht in mid-2013, soon after that paid information began flowing, and the creation of certain evidence at trial, such as the 2013 journal that conveniently begins – again – in Spring 2013, after the corruption alleged in this Complaint ripened. As the evidence at trial – particularly from the government’s law enforcement witnesses – demonstrated, the Baltimore investigation and agents were inextricably involved in the evolution of the case and the evidence, as well as with alerting Mark Karpeles that he was under investigation, and meeting with his lawyers and exchanging information. At Mr. Ulbricht’s trial, knowing full well the corruption alleged in the Complaint made public today, the government still aggressively precluded much of that evidence, and kept it from the jury (and had other similar evidence stricken from the record). Consequently, the government improperly used the ongoing grand jury process in San Francisco as both a sword and a shield to deny Mr. Ulbricht access to and use of important evidence, and a fair trial.

In a truly free republic, no information is forced to be kept secret.

Yet today we have:
- Secret non-public counter-terrorism "courts" which authorize everything from illegal wiretaps against the general population to ex-judicial executions at government agent will
- Secret warrants where individuals/corporations are not even allowed to say they've received a warrant or what actions were taken. It's gotten so bad we now have warrant canary sites. https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/04/warrant-canary-faq
- Government restrictions on information the defense can bring (i.e. in the above). In a truly free republic an individual can decide for themselves what information to present and let a jury decide what is valid/relevant. In today's trials people are restricted.
- etc. etc. etc.

The fact Ross was not allowed to bring anything he wanted to the jury is unconstitutional, the fact that the government did not provide all information to the defense is unconstitutional, the fact most evidence was illegally obtained is unconstitutional. History books are going to marvel at how blind US citizens in the 21st century were.
385  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 25, 2015, 01:55:59 AM

Yesterday it was the same with gold, they didn't outlaw gold per se, instead they said you had to transfer gold to the gov who gave you an equivalent amount of dollars that were the same as gold, that they could now track within the banks.

Today it is the same with cash, they are not outlawing cash, but any amount or transaction above a nominal amount has to be kept in electronic form in bank accounts, enabling full tracking and ownership by the government, this is today. They could easily legislate this for bitcoin.


They were able to introduce paper dollars because these are, in many ways, better than gold coins; then they were able to introduce electronic dollars because these are, in many ways, better than paper dollars. But this works as long as the new system reduces friction in payments. Now the game is over.

Agree with you, that is why I am here and invested. But I'd characterize bitcoin as "having a fighting chance" because the system reduces friction, not that "the game is over". It will be a long battle, and they haven't even started to use the various tools at their disposal.
386  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 24, 2015, 05:23:33 AM
on balance, i think it's too late to make Bitcoin illegal or even put sharp restrictions on it here in the US.  

mainly b/c it's global and their are too many large, legitimate US investors involved already.  think NYSE, NASDAQ, multiple hedge funds, banks, VC funds, and numerous financial luminaries and Wall St folk.  just about the entire Silicon Valley wants it as fintech has been irrationally and unfairly excluded from financial innovation forever.  this is their time.  Wall St has begun to sense the inevitability and are climbing aboard.  there are plenty of overt data points and pending signs.

They definitely won't make it illegal, I'm sorry if that's how what i said came across

Of course you can still use bitcoin, this is the land of the free. However, to stop money laundering and save us from terrorists, drug dealers and sex traffickers everyone has to use this government issued wallet software to transfer bitcoins, which enables tracking of all whitelist coins.

Yes bitcoin will still confirm any transaction, but if you ever transfer one of your whitelist coins from coinbase or your employer to a non-whitelist coin by using your own wallet software, you go to jail. If you own a blacklist coin and try to pay any business, they flag the transfer and you go to jail. Technically bitcoin still works and is still legal, but it has been co-opted. The above scenario also isn't that hard to implement, we already have it with banks and cash.

Yesterday it was the same with gold, they didn't outlaw gold per se, instead they said you had to transfer gold to the gov who gave you an equivalent amount of dollars that were the same as gold, that they could now track within the banks.

Today it is the same with cash, they are not outlawing cash, but any amount or transaction above a nominal amount has to be kept in electronic form in bank accounts, enabling full tracking and ownership by the government, this is today. They could easily legislate this for bitcoin.

The only thing that stops that from happening is a large enough percentage of the population saying no. It sounds that many here think there will be enough who say no, my fear is there isn't.

Also, if this is how it plays out, we'll all be rich as sin. Provided of course that we whitelist our coins and pay our due (taxes). If not, you go to jail. Given this choice I'm sure many here will choose to whitelist their coins and retire. And that is how the government continues to grow.
387  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 24, 2015, 12:14:33 AM
i'm not making the argument with tvbcof that gvt won't enforce unreasonable laws onto Bitcoin.  that probably is in Bitcoin's future.

what i'm arguing is their ability to actively taint tx's, either thru addresses or UTXO's.   that's not technically possible for them and also for those they demand to do so.  thus, their work will be cut out for them, assuming they need to actually track and enforce against those who disobey.

OK, got it.

For a modern day example, they are effectively banning the use of cash. So that everything is electronic and fully tracked in their financial system.
http://mises.org/blog/fighting-war-terror-banning-cash

In theory it should be impossible to enforce a cash ban, after all cash is similar to bitcoin it is not traceable and transactions are permanent, but in practice I am sure most businesses and individuals will voluntarily comply making the ban 99% effective.

I think what tvbcof is getting at is their ability to force major transaction points into their own system, will enable a government to effectively create a 'whitelist' bitcoin economy that is tracked an monitored. Yes, bitcoin will process coin transfers regardless of their whitelist / blacklist status, but what good is that if your employer, grocer, butcher, pizza man, electric, water & internet/phone utilities, etc. go along with the whitelist and only accept transactions from gov approved sources?

If this sounds far-fetched, well I'd challenge you to pay these firms with cash after the gov eventually forbids cash usage and demands electronic payments only. After that ban your cash would be useless, unless you can whitelist it into a bank account.

It's not technically possible to taint/track bitcoin, any more than it is not technically possible to ban cash transfers or gold transfers, yet these things can and still do happen.
388  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 23, 2015, 11:41:03 PM
Quote
this was one of the clearest things going on in early 2007 that caused me to put on a huge stock short in Oct 2007 starting with New Century:

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/countrywide-ceo-continues-unload-stock
   

nice catch. I'm picking that we could have a good night or two swapping similar stories over some bottles ...

edit: just noticed that there were still nothing in the comments after 8 years for that damning article about the countrywide CEO making off with $150 million before the company collapsed (and was bailed out?)

Problem with insider sales is since a ton of compensation these days is in the form of options/stock, it is hard to tell what selling is due to foreseeing issues in their own business vs. standard selling for portfolio diversification. Insiders always sell more than they buy because of this compensation. (Tech insiders BTW have been selling hard into this latest tech bubble.)

Another problem is insiders are often wrong. The Enron CEO did not sell, and if my memory is right he was actively buying as the stock crashed, all the way to zero. He truly believed in the model and didn't understand how/why it failed.

IMHO the Enron CEO was not a criminal, just an idiot who didn't fully understand his own business. This differs from the Countrywide CEO who knew what was wrong, and milked the system.
389  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 23, 2015, 05:39:39 PM
Would you mind telling me exactly how, from a technical standpoint, you would even white or black list BTC?

Given that there is no such thing as a coin but just a series of inputs and outputs, what do you taint and how is that sustainably identifiable throughout the life of a "coin"?

Just make people register.  That was Yifu's angle as a principle at CoinValidation.  UTXO's which are not registered to a known user or entity (e.g., Coinbase or blockchain.info) would halt a transaction from being valid.  Very easy to justify in the name of 'fighting terrorism and child exploitation' and whatever.  You can go before congress and argue all kinds of economic mumbo-jumbo about fungibility and freedom and what-not if you like.  Good luck with that.

Sharp eyed viewers might notice that if one does not register, one cannot pay one's taxes.  And there are well established ways to make people pay their taxes in almost all but the most failed of states.  I'll register my stash the day I'm mandated to do so (which is why my conception of the best strategy is to avoid a mandate ever being practical rather than to resist compliance after it is been mandated.)

As a function of my Coin Validation service, I'd also run a service for miners so that they can ensure that they don't waste their time mining unvalidated UTXO's as inputs and their transaction set thus remain clean. If the choice is between taking this easy and popular step of using my government chartered service, and facing shutdown of their network support and confiscation of their gear, it will be a fairly easy decision in most cases.  It seems to me that the new inverted bloom filter thing it could be remarkably efficient for a miner to ensure that they are not wasting their time with transactions which are going to be legally invalid because they contain unvalidated inputs.  A side benefit of using a sorted transaction set.

I also find your suggestion that the likes of Russia and China are going to change their policies and welcome crypto-currencies with open arms to be laughable.  And in case you have not noticed, piss-ant countries without nukes pretty much do what they are told by whoever's sphere of influence they fall under.  Sure, there is a chance that your rosy dreams about totalitarian countries suddenly discovering the joys of individual freedom and geo-political power politics will come to pass, but I'm not betting a huge percentage of my financial statement on it.



this is exactly the sort of drivel i'd expect from your socialistic mindset.  "i'd just mandate it be so".

notice that there is no depth to your assertions as they just represent your lips flapping once again.  let me spell it out for you.  the working assumption here is that there will be mass disobedience of your pronouncements as most ppl who are even remotely familiar with how the protocol works understands that it is impossible to "taint coins" as there is no such concept in reality.  the trick for you is how to enforce your pronouncements.  there are just inputs and outputs which get split & joined constantly giving "coins" that are ever lessening shades of grey as time goes by.  and w/o a mechanism to identify owners of whatever unit you choose to monitor be it addresses or UTXO's, there is plausible deniability at every hop.  the only way to prove someone guilty of a theft is to catch them with the private keys on their computer used at the time of the theft.

I actually agree with tvbcof on this, and that doesn't make me against bitcoin.

There are strong historical precedents for governments to outlaw forms of money and mandate the usage of their currency. FDR's ban on gold possession is the the most recent US based example. We can say "well many people ignored the ban and kept their gold", and that is true, but they weren't able to use that gold publicly for business, transactions with most firms, taxes, etc. So it didn't matter that many people kept their gold, it only matter that most people couldn't use their gold.

Also, most people are either apolitical on money or against bitcoin's libertarian purpose, and would happily comply with any Presidential mandate as tvbcof lays out.

Especially if compliance is required to receive healthcare through obamacare, social security, mortgages to buy housing, student loans to go to school, food stamps, welfare checks, etc. etc. An apolitical/collectivist population is an effective weapon for current governments against any sound money system.

It's not super simple. There is a reason why you do not pay tax when you buy firewood from your neigbor. He and you say no. There is a reason why they can not say: You to can not have sexual intercource, how could you think that, here it is WE who decide who is to have sex and not to have sex. But the people says no, no way. There is a reason they can not say that you have to go to church every sunday. Everybody say no, no way, basta! This is also what people will say to the blacklists or the whitelists. They will say, no, not a chance, basta, the coins are mine. Mine! Get out of my face. That is what everybody will say. Not super simple at all. Without support, they can do nothing. Whitout you giving them resources, they have no resources. Bitcoin will make that clear to a lot of people.

That only works for small private party to private party transactions. Try telling that to your locally owned pizza shop who's owner relies on his business to feed his family. He/she will happily comply with a mandate in order to stay in business. Sure, maybe if the two of you know and trust each other you'll agree to under the table transactions, but that is a small minority of transactions. Point is, any mandate will be followed by most businesses, and that is what matters.
390  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 23, 2015, 05:24:13 PM
This is my fundamental disagreement with Gavin's proposal.  It not only makes no attempt to figure it out, it takes away the impetus to do so for 20 years, when we have had Bitcoin for only a third of that time.  This is what makes it such a jaw-droppingly misguided proposal unworthy of someone in his position.

Instead we are expected to undertake new risks without even the promise of the improvements needed to resolve the issue in either a long term manner (using a measured rate based on block-size need) or a permanent manner (removal of the limit based on it no longer being necessary). 

Catching up after a week's absence.

So fully agree with this sentiment. The change locks bitcoin onto an automatic 20 year ramp to essentially zero limit. None of us know for sure how this will play out.

The only reason I can think Gavin would want to do this is maybe a fear that after the next jump in price and usage, bitcoin might start to become too large to effectively fork/change, and so it is best to make a change today that locks in future changes to remove the limit as a minimum bitcoin needs.

Gavin's view seems to be that the market will figure it out. I agree it will, but believe it will figure itself out by becoming more centralized with a majority of nodes running in cloud datacenters (I already only run my full node in AWS). So I don't worry that bitcoin will technically break, but worry that the immediate solutions the market finds will make bitcoin less decentralized and easier for centralized governments to attack through regulation. I'd prefer bitcoin stay smaller if that is what it needs to do to remain more decentralized.
391  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 16, 2015, 09:27:02 PM
My "economic majority" phrasing becomes a little confusing here because we must continually ask, "A majority among whom?" A large enough minority with enough difference of opinion from the majority will break away and become the economic majority of a community of people who agree with their values. There are still reasons why each little economic community with varying beliefs about ideal money will not necessarily fork off: size is an advantage, voice can still work if the minority makes convincing arguments, etc.

Here is where I personally think this runs into problems. Again I'll use the gold default as a historical example. Here after FDR defaulted it was perfectly possible for a minority of people to refuse the new fiat system and still transact with each other using the old system (physical gold). The problem was the minority of people (gold bugs) was too small to be effective, they were marginalized and the majority of the world moved on without them.

I don't think the "community of people who agree with their values" will necessarily be large enough, if history is any guide (which I believe it is).


As you stated, bitcoin is a more democratic form of money, where the economic majority have a voice and a small group cannot control the system. This is one of the most beautiful aspects of the system. Additionally any minority of users can always choose to stay on the ledger/path they choose.

Any democratic system of money is far inferior to Bitcoin.  It is fundamentally the opposite of that, it is an economic system.
An occurrence of democratic action is seen as a threat to Bitcoin, AKA 51% attack.

Voting is in all cases the supreme failure of an attempt to create quality.  Where there is quality, voting is not needed.  Voting is for avoiding violent conflict by replacing it with as much as possible with social conflict.  It is the use of law against others, and it is for subjugating minorities.  We in democratic societies are taught how wonderful it is to have democracy, and it is better than most any other option, but it is also utter crap.  I do not wish for a "democratic" system of money and I am very happy that Bitcoin isn't one.

The problem is Bitcoin exists within a system of demographically elected governments (supposedly), and this system will try to impose it's will either on bitcoin or on the population. The easier and more common it is to change bitcoin, the easier it is for a demographically elected government (or any gov) to co-opt bitcoin.

This thread started with a statement that making bitcoin easy to fork often will be a good thing. My argument is be careful what you wish for because it there are powerful forces which will try to change it into something against it's founding principles.

This is why I stated I prefer that bitcoin remains a rules based system as much as possible outside of the influence of man. The more we enable forking to be common, the more that breaks down and the easier it become for governments to push regulation/etc in.
392  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 16, 2015, 09:06:52 PM
Fiatcoin is nearly here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/12/us-bitcoin-ibm-idUSKBN0M82KB20150312\

Quote
Unlike bitcoin, where the network is decentralized and there is no overseer, the proposed digital currency system would be controlled by central banks, the source said.

"These coins will be part of the money supply," the source said. "It's the same money, just not a dollar bill with a serial number on it, but a token that sits on this blockchain."

I don't get it... Isn't this taking the worst of both worlds?

Oh, you got it.

They are going to try and create a centralized black-box system that has all the negatives of fiat money combined with the negatives of bitcoin (trace-ability, etc), and a demographic majority will go along. (You're not for terrorism, child molesters or drug dealers are you). It's not a matter of if, but when.
393  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 16, 2015, 05:56:12 PM
On forkability in general, I see it as a great strength, not a weakness. It means that the economic majority is always in control even when major changes have to be made.

As a side note, I find it cumbersome during deeper analysis to think in terms of "Bitcoin." Rather, I think more fluidly in terms of the economic majority ledger (currently known as the Bitcoin ledger). Forking the protocol is largely powerless* to affect the economic majority ledger, because - by the same logic as in my previous two posts - the new protocol fork only retains control of the economic majority ledger to the extent that the protocol change is compelling to the economic majority.**

Since every differentiated protocol fork (here I mean altcoins) has so far created an entirely new ledger, of course they aren't very compelling to the economic majority, receiving at most tepid investment interest. A spin-off would be based on the economic majority ledger, so it would have a great advantage over an altledger/altcoin, though if it wasn't compelling it would just be sold off by bitcoin holders for more bitcoins.

If a substantially different protocol fork or spin-off is ever more compelling to the economic majority, and of course using the same ledger is the first requirement for that, it would be adopted. The economic majority retains their ledger with their wealth in all cases. Bitcoin-the-protocol may be no more, but the ledger stays so bitcoin holders have nothing to fear except a re-naming.

Suppose a substantial segment of the economic majority shows interest in some change you find repulsive. Likely many others will agree with you, so in some unlikely scenarios you will potentially have two ledgers form over time.** If this does occur, it's the most amazing form of democracy (not voice democracy, but exit democracy) because everyone can use the system they want without compromise. However, again, there is a strong tendency to simply converge on ideal money based on the wisdom of (investing) crowds.

For instance, if we suppose a substantial segment of the economic majority shows interest FedCoin, then the legal situation may make it likely that the two coexist, with Bitcoin either on the black market in that country or competing directly with FedCoin. In that case, again, exit-democracy prevails and the Feds have no more tools to corrupt cryptocurrency than they do now (see the arguments in my two previous posts).

Here's another important implication of thinking in terms of the economic majority ledger: Bitcoin issuance is not limited to 21 million coins because of the protocol, but because of the exit-democratic consensus of the economic majority. It is incorrect to say we have moved from an era of control by central bankers to an era of control by mathematics. We have moved to an era of control by the economic majority.

This is a great advance, but not because "no one" can change the protocol, but because no one can force any group of people to stop using it. To effectively change the coin limit, you have to either convince the economic majority to do so, which is a herculean task, or convince some subset of the economic majority - but then that doesn't affect the rest of the people. That means the coin limit could change (for example, in 50 years to deal with mining incentives), but not without a reason that is so incredibly compelling that it sways all or most of the economic majority - in which case the typical bitcoiner should probably not worry, despite how bad it sounds, because the economic majority has those same reservations to overcome. And also we know that the change wouldn't allow for any net-harmful degree of continuing inflation or other effects, because the wisdom of the economic majority would be behind it.***

This is the kind of guarantee Bitcoin provides; it's essentially a decentralized governance where voice vs. exit is fully exercised at all times. What Bitcoin provides is not a guarantee by code or math, rather code and math are what enforce the "edicts" of this decentralized governance structure subject to the continual pressures of voice and exit backed by investment flows.

If, for example, the economic majority believes that increasing max_blocksize to 20MB or shorter block times or Turing completeness will make the protocol for updating the economic majority ledger more compelling, a fork incorporating these changes would thrive and beat out the Bitcoin Classic protocol.

So to me, all that's required for Bitcoin-the-ledger to survive in perpetuity and make every investor rich is for the protocol to be upgraded if and only if the economic majority deems it truly compelling, with all the prudence about viability that that entails. Forking makes that happen, giving that critical exit option to balance voice, which in Bitcoin is already vastly superior to government democracy voice since it's backed by actual money.

*So far around 90% powerless, considering the combined market cap of all the altledgers compared to the economic majority ledger (Bitcoin).

**Although some kind of 50/50 or 40/60 split could happen in theory, the incentives involved make it seem unlikely in practice - and even if it does happen (because both forks are highly compelling in their own right), the market can only support a few such splits because there are only so many protocol feature sets to compete on through differentiation.

***If you're skeptical of the wisdom of the economic majority, first realize this is what controls Bitcoin right now, in fact, as is the theme of this post. Secondly realize this is as good as it gets; there is no way to create a system smarter than the economic majority, at least not without centralization (and in my opinion not even then). Third, if you're convinced that prediction markets are a huge deal, this should be appealing for the same reasons. If you're not sold on prediction markets, read the five numbered documents here. Although Truthcoin may be a misguided system, Paul Sztorc's arguments on the importance of prediction markets are impressive.

Excellent post, thank you.

As you stated, bitcoin is a more democratic form of money, where the economic majority have a voice and a small group cannot control the system. This is one of the most beautiful aspects of the system. Additionally any minority of users can always choose to stay on the ledger/path they choose.

I think where we differ is in how much confidence to place in the decisions of the economic majority. Your position is that you trust the economic majority will always choose the "right" thing because it is in their self-interest. I believe there is strong historical precedent where the economic majority have both willing selected and been coerced into decisions that are against their own interests, and so I place less confidence in the decisions of the economic majority. I prefer a strong rules based system that is out of the hands of man, and fear anything else will be influenced negatively over time.

Bitcoin issuance is not limited to 21 million coins because of the protocol, but because of the exit-democratic consensus of the economic majority. It is incorrect to say we have moved from an era of control by central bankers to an era of control by mathematics. We have moved to an era of control by the economic majority.

Fully agree that in the end the 21M limit exists because the majority chooses for it to exist, not solely because of the protocol.

Disagree that the limit will remain because the economic majority will protect the limit. If that was true, please explain how they broke the gold standard? The economic majority of physical gold holders were against it, they massively lost out in the default, and yet it still happened. If you look at the history, after the default they were no longer the economic majority (because they were devalued) and no longer had control. The economic majority shifted to the government which could now create wealth out of thin air and have everyone go along "because crisis".

If let's say hypothetically the government declared a fork with 210M coins, they would now control 189M coins, a clear economic majority. They could also convince the majority of people to go along because the government would offer those 189M coins as various "services" to voters. The economic majority you described, would no longer be a majority and would now be a very small economic minority.  This is not a hypothetical, it is history and has already happened. If you walk through the mechanics of the 1933 default it follows the outline above.

Point is, I don't believe a demographic majority want the principles of sound money, and if bitcoin ever takes hold there will be a multitude of attacks. The main protections against this are to have bitcoin be used directly as much as possible (i.e. own wallet, not through circle.com services) and to have forks be rare events making it harder to push regulation/etc into bitcoin. Part of the reason they were able to break the gold standard is people had already stopped using physical gold directly, and mostly only used paper gold, and thus they had no method to resist the changes. If in 1932 people still mostly used physical gold for transactions and not paper gold dollars, I think the 1933 default would have been much more difficult.

394  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 15, 2015, 06:14:46 AM
Even after the FED broke all promises and broke the dollar's ties to gold, there were so few people willing to still use gold as money in daily transactions that gold never regained its true value.

The edict backed by the world's superior machinery for causing harm did a long way as well: "10 years of prison & 10k USD in fines to anyone who dares even possess gold."

This is largely why I think so many in government and banking do not see bitcoin as a real threat to the system. The mind set there is they have a multitude of methods to dictate and control money as they see fit. It's why bitcoin as a real threat is considered to be a joke in many of those circles.

And although I disagree with them (it's why I am here), the threats are real and I personally think bitcoin should constantly be thinking about how to strengthen itself against them.

Take chainanalysis's likely recent Sybil attack. This is a small startup, there can and will be bigger attempts and may things in the future.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=978088.msg10756505#msg10756505
395  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 15, 2015, 06:05:15 AM
A government fork of bitcoin would do the same thing to bitcoin as the paper gold dollar did to gold, make it irrelevant, not used and valueless.

I get the analogy to gold vs. gold-backed dollars, but in Bitcoin's case I can't think of any specific changes the Feds could make to a fork that would allow it to both (a) obviate almost everyone's need for Bitcoin and (b) be enough different from Bitcoin for the government to be satisfied with it (and hardcore bitcoiners to be dissatisfied with it).

Well one change they could make is to declare the fork is legal, while the original is illegal with significant +10 years jail time for using it. This is not far-fetched, there is a clear historical precedent/blue print for them to follow. Gold had thousands of years of history as money and most of the public in 1913 only considered to gold to be money, yet by 1933 they were able to ban even simple possession. The force of government combined with the apathy of the people is the biggest threat there is.

For example, if the money supply remains un-changeable, this is awesome as the Federal Reserve has effectively been neutralized. If they make a fork that can be inflated, Bitcoin Classic retains its store-of-value properties and will be highly sought after. If they do something in between, we get a little of both. If they remove all anonymity possibilities in their fork, Bitcoin thrives in the black market; if they don't, awesome. If in between, a little of both.

Any fork could start out as an un-changeable supply. The FED's dollar was originally convertible to gold and thus had a fixed supply. Then during the next crisis they can default and fork again to increase the supply through default "for the common good". Again there is historical precedent for this. It took only 20 years for the FED to break a thousand years of gold history, how long would it take for bitcoin?

At one end of the spectrum they take just a few of Bitcoin's properties to build a system that is better than current fiat, which would be moderately liberty-promoting, while still leaving Bitcoin's differentiated value proposition very firmly intact. At the other end of the spectrum they adopt almost all of Bitcoin's properties, which would be extremely liberty-promoting, but leaving Bitcoin with little differentiated advantage. Either result is overall very good liberty-wise (though the result where they mimic Bitcoin quite closely may not be very good for Bitcoin investors - but that result is also highly unlikely), and I see no point in between those extremes that would be any worse. So I conclude there is nothing to worry about.

Any fork could start out benign at first, but turn downright 1984 Orwellian over time. The FED dollar was benign at first, it was considered the same as gold, and look where we are today.

I'm a believer in the bitcoin project and think it has a decent change of success. But it is not black or white where either bitcoin is guaranteed to fail or guaranteed to succeed, it is somewhere in between (gray).

All I am saying is making forks easy and common makes bitcoin's chance of success slightly grayer. We can argue about whether it makes is very slightly more gray or significantly more gray, but to me that doesn't matter, why make it grayer at all, no matter how much?
396  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 14, 2015, 05:42:13 AM
But on the other hand the more easy and accustomed to forks bitcoin becomes, the easier it is for regulation to push a fork towards some type of FEDCoin.

If they can fork Bitcoin to their liking while not destroying its major selling points, more power to them and I'll even invest in their fork, but I don't think that's possible. The changes the government would demand would make it orders of magnitude less valuable and most of the current economic majority would stay with Bitcoin Classic. They could grow FEDCoin larger than Bitcoin, more valuable, etc., but Bitcoin would still have its uses - precisely those uses that were neutered in FEDCoin.

In summary, government-sponsored forks aren't a threat to Bitcoin. In fact they would probably just help, because they would get the general public familiar with the ins and outs of crypto, such as security. Then there's Bitcoin with its ex-hypothesi better features.

The problem with goverment forks is if they get 99% of the public to use the fork (which is likely), the original system becomes irrelevant even if a few diehards stick to it.

Take gold and the FED's original gold backed dollar. The FED's original dollar was a government fork of gold as money. Gold coins offered many benefits from security, irreversible transactions, privacy, fixed stable value, etc. The gold backed dollar was a fork from mother nature in a sense, and they promoted a variety of benefits including easier transactions, etc.

Even after the FED broke all promises and broke the dollar's ties to gold, there were so few people willing to still use gold as money in daily transactions that gold never regained its true value.

A government fork of bitcoin would do the same thing to bitcoin as the paper gold dollar did to gold, make it irrelevant, not used and valueless. Sure there would be some holdouts who refuse to follow the fork, but they wouldn't be enough to maintain a functional market. Just as the gold bugs weren't enough to maintain gold's role as money or value in society.

That's one of my fears for the project. The harder and less common we make forks to implement, then the harder this attack vector becomes.
397  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 13, 2015, 02:00:12 AM
It isn't the 20MB block size that scares me, it is the automatic doubling every two years until we reach 20GB blocks. This scares the crap out of me because if a problem turns up we need a fork to pause the scaling.

I'm starting to wonder if forks are really that big a deal.

Imagine if all the exchanges were set up to handle economic arbitrage of two or more forks. Say you have 20 BTC on Bitstamp when a fork happens. Your account is automatically split into 20 BTC in BitcoinOld and 20BTC in BitcoinNew. If you don't know/care about the fork, you do nothing. If you think one of the two is obviously more viable and/or obviously more likely to get support, you immediately start selling BTC in one for BTC in the other.

Since everyone is doing the same, I bet this all plays out in a matter of minutes because once the trend becomes clear it will snowball since no one wants to be on the losing fork. Luckily, again, you can sit out the arbitrage and leave your stash untouched whichever fork wins. It's just that you can earn yourself some extra coin if you guess the winning fork correctly.

Now to guard against possible glitches in BitcoinNew, even if it wins in initial trading, BitcoinOld will probably still retain some value for a time - for instance 10% of its former value for a few days or weeks - as a representation of an estimated 10% probability of a glitch in BitcoinNew. After that it would likely fade into nothingness. All the while your bitcoins are safe no matter the outcome.

Not only is this far faster than waiting for "consensus," it also ties more solidly into the basic economics of Bitcoin itself. As Daniel Krawisz has pointed out, where investors go, everyone else follows. Investors have the ultimate control, so the forking process should reflect this and exchanges should be setting their systems up for this.

I agree.

I would like this scenario a lot more if we replaced "exchanges set up to handle multiple forks" to "wallets/nodes set up to handle multiple forks".

Maybe I should prepare for such scenario and have a node / wallet ready that does that. Anyone have a suggestion?

I dont know. On one hand I agree that a fork to improve bitcoin or fix an issue isn't a big deal.

But on the other hand the more easy and accustomed to forks bitcoin becomes, the easier it is for regulation to push a fork towards some type of FEDCoin. To me the default should be that forks are rare and only for exceptional reasons
398  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 12, 2015, 06:13:22 PM
I cannot see any noteworthy economic disadvantages with sidechains. 
I can think of a big one. You cannot use Proof of Work on a sidechain. Therefore you accept security and/or counterparty risk. It will up to the sidechain user to determine how much risk to accept.

proof of work wont make it to the mainstream.
1billionTM people will never benefit from it ~directly.
its insane. they just need ~apps.

ETFs, sidechains, offchains, blythechains.. whatever.

blythechains, now that's a thought. What have we wrought.
399  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 12, 2015, 06:31:07 AM
I'd rather have sidechains than 20MB++ gigablocks, and am curious where you stand ATM.



Please enlighten us all why you rather have SCs.


I'm not a huge fan of side chains yet, but Bitcoin's Grandfather (Adam Back) and a couple of other notables participating in this thread have done a lot to convince me they won't be the end of the world and may ameliorate pressure to adopt Gavin's Bloatchain proposal.

Doc's economic attack via free options still worries me, but I have faith antifragility win out in the end.

OTOH, 20MB blocks would destroy TOR, etc. compatibility and poke holes in our beautifully small (defensible/diffuse/resilient) network, which is the vehicle for BTC's antifragility.

Sorry I can't be more specific and impressively techie!   Tongue

What's your take on the matter, old bean?

It isn't the 20MB block size that scares me, it is the automatic doubling every two years until we reach 20GB blocks. This scares the crap out of me because if a problem turns up we need a fork to pause the scaling. Would much rather see a series of independent increases that we take in steps.
400  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 11, 2015, 05:25:14 PM
embedding the hash of UTXO in the block headers and retaining only the last few hundred blocks is being experimented with as a client option.

Good to know.

screw that, i want direct access to a copy of the entire blockchain at all times.  

No one will deny you that access on an open network should you wish it ... destruction of tx history has a myriad of benefits, and risks (that can be mitigated).

Yes. The power of Bitcoin is enhanced by in-built flexibility. Many nodes will always have and always want the full blockchain, many will be happier with the UTXO set secured by hashes in the main-chain, and many users will be OK with SPV only.

Just because alternative models are available, and can work concurrently with earlier implementations, does not mean everyone jumps ship to one model.

This is exactly why I like UTXO hashes embedded in blocks. It does not preclude nodes from performing full chain scans, it simply extends and provides additional mechanisms to participate in the P2P network.

With UTXO hashes you could think of bitcoin extending to 3 types of nodes, where today we only have two. They would be:

1) SPV clients - Light-clients, do not protect/valid network, protect own private keys only
2) Full nodes - Full participants on P2P network, protect and valid the current ledger only (which is all that is needed to be a node)
3) Archival nodes - Full participants on P2P network, protect and valid the full historical journal (as Marcus called it)

UTXO hashes would enable many more people to participate as P2P nodes and actively add protection to the current ledger. This does not stop several archival nodes from existing who would act as maintainers of the historical journal for prosperity and validation.

By creating this division more people/nodes can participate which improves bitcoin's security.
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