things that affect the bottom line/LOW of bitcoin value/pricing are categorised as cost of obtaining: (mining cost and buyers remorse)

i feel we have since october really tested the bottom line based on 'buyers remorse' support line. (those that buy at X but wont sell for less than X)

so now the only pressure on the bottom support line is mining cost.  thus if lots of cheaper rigs are used to replace old rigs, but hashrate doesnt climb much, we can see pricee remain slumped/low/drop because the miners have factored in that it costs them less to mine so willing to sell for less than top price

but if people are buying extra rigs to extend farms thus cause quick hashrate climbs to counter the cheaper rig costs. then we shall see a nice rise in support price

..
to explain better
look at charts.. draw a line between october and february.. cut off the hype mountain that was pure speculation. and wats left is a rough idea of true value.

right now there is a mining cost of around $6k-$9k depending on factors. which gave it the support levels of such.
now factor in that ASICS just got cheaper which is why the march-june period seen a dip into the lower range of 6-9k as some pools got to test out some cheaper rigs and so willing to sell coin for less than the 9k top 'value'
and factor in that others may also be expanding their farms with cheaper ASICS from june forwards so that effects the price support to..
which can cause more pressure on the bottomline.

the redeeming factor of a value bottomline support price rise is the hashrate. the higher the hashrate the more cost to mine blocks it will be. so look at the changes of the hashrate to see if VALUE will stay slumped or will move up quickly depending on how quicky the hashrate goes up to counter the new rig costs

rant:
ther are 2 types of price TA's:
technical analysis: taking current real world events and putting it into numbers
trend anals: fortune telling by palm reading old/existing charts and seeing triangles that you chose to draw, that have no meaning but pretend to look good

dont be a trend anal

now to those that cant quantify my explanation into maths. maybe technical analysis is not your speciality and you should avoid looking at charts.. and definetly dont bother thinking you will get future answers by looking at past patterns as thats worse then playing pin the tail on the donkey.

bitcoin trading is about repeated buy/sell to increase amounts.

lesson one
dont put all your eggs in one basket

lesson two
never sell at a loss

lesson three
never risk amounts your afraid to lose
..
the best aim is to imagine how much you waste on novelty stuff. such as fast food or clothing you never wear more than once. EG if thats $30 a week then give it the total of $1560 a year investment.
think of it as $1560 that ends up as a bowel movement in the towlet the nxt day after spending. or as a $0 rturn handout to someone else /clothing charity
..

when trading dont throw the entire $1560 on one order. break it up into lets say 3-10 amounts.. for this explaination ill  just use 3 to save time
$520 buy bitcoin. if the price goes up. great instant profit. if it goes down. dont sell. just leave it alone..
and instead wait for the price to drop enough until you think it may go up again and buy using the other $520...

$520 buy bitcoin. if the price goes up. great instant profit. if it goes down. dont sell. just leave it alone..
and instead wait for the price to drop enough until you think it may go up again and buy using the other $520...

..
the aim here is to look at daily, weekly charts and see what kind of movements happen.. dont be tmpted to go all in and hop to see a 200% spike the same day. instead if each day averages a few 2% changes. then aim to buy and sell at 2% instead of waiting for the 20-200% spikes

eg when the $520 gets its 2% rise. sell it. thats $10.40 profit from that one order per day. and if you manage to have all 3 orders in play thats $31.20 a day... which over a year is more than 200%

..
thus your not risking and waiting for $1560 for a year. your instead rinse and repeating $520 amounts multiple times for 2% which soon add up

key here is dont get greeding wasting time waiting for 10% when you can jsut as easily risk less and get multiple 2%'s in the same time whi

a few years ago, alot off the bank account shut downs were due to dumbasses using personal accounts but actually running a business. or getting charged back by so many chargeback scammers the banks counldnt justify continuing to allow the business to have an account with the bank as it was causing more headache than anything.

it then moved onto the propaganda that when governments said that banks themselves cannot become exchanges for crypto. the media twisted the narative for many countries into the wrongful and outright lie of 'banning bitcoin exchange businesses'

anyway. now moving on to mor recent stuff, banks do actually let businesses have business accounts. but it seems the swiss are the first country to really shout and promote it.

this does not mean just open a swiss bank account and your immune. .. you still need to declare the business plan and show how you are going to mitigate losses. cover costs, and reduce/avoid admin headaches for the bank. just like any other business account application.
and that includes showing any AMLKYC policy/registration if needed

most peoples predictions are based on a multiple of the price they bought at.. EG someone who bought lat at $15k will say it wil be at $30k

the multples are usually if they invested more then $10k they want double. if they invested undr $1k they want mor multiples.
the ones that scream $1mill btc are usually the ones that only invested enough to buy a single bitcoin and are hoping to become millionaires.
the ones that scream $15k-$60k by year end bought more then 1 bitcoin but they are not looking for a 100x multiple they just want double to triple

but as my first sentance said most are just throwing out prices based on the cost of their own investment, multipled by Xfactor and at a date that they want to see the price as thats when they themselves want to exit.

..
however there is actually some maths can can contribute to working out a good baseline support of a futur price. .. by this i do not mean speculating a new radical ATH.i mean working out the future cost of obtaining the coin at its bottom price befor people refuse to sell. (base support)

we have seen 2016 notdrop below $300. 2017 not drop below $900 and 2018 so far not drop below $6k.. and there is a reason for this bottom line value.
once you can work out what makes up the dcisions people make to not sell for less (cost of obtaining) you will s it too. and then you too can calculate the future costs to see whre some support lines will lay in the future

lightning network is not a bitcoin only feature.
LN is its own network where multiple coins will be able to be used. thus not something thats going to add anything to bitcoin alone.

the whole last 3-5 years has not been about making bitcoin feature rich to be more ahead of other currencies. but used as a beta experiment to develop things other currencies will use.

oh.. and whn you lock your btc into LN.. its no longer a sovereign asset. but something held in a controntract that neds a counter party to authorise
thus bitcoin becomes not a medium of exchange and not a sovereign asset.
its time you wake up to the reality of dvelopment and stop just looking at the social defense/offense games

firstly
warren buffet's R.P squared.. the R.P was something charlie munger said years ago.

back then it was $100

warren added the "squared" part this year. because if you take the price when the first person said it years ago and square it.. ud of got roughly the price it was when warren buttet got interviewed. ($10,000) so he was doing a math price comment of what the first person said years ago
meaning he was commenting more on the price increase than anything

secondly he is risk adverve. and this latest interview is him saying he has a high standard to avoid risk.
jamie dimon says just beware

seems many people are turning a comment of what i consider a negative 2 on the 'give a crap' scale into a negative 2million

if bitcoin is rat poison. great... just remember who the rats are and you too will think its a positive comment
hint wall street and city finance people say their lives are by thir own admission a 'rat race'

akitas moonshot.
google it

as for total supply. using your method. you will need to re-revise your research every ~10 minutes ,, the supply has moved up since you last looked

it moves up every block(average 10minutes) by 12.5btc for the next couple years then increases by 6.25btc every ~10 minutes
the magic suply number you should be looking for is ~21mill coins. so you are grasping at straws with the GM automaker connection

as for the name satoshi
a few people in the cypherpunks group were into networking/decentralisation/ciphers/cryptic games analysis and there was a game back in 2005-2006 in called perplx city, made by mind candy which one part was called finding satoshi.

no one found that "satoshi"

so its possible one of the cypherpunks borrowed that name as thier new secret alias in 2008-2010

..
to note the perplex citiy game was around a few years before bitcoin. and the person in the perplex city game is not the bitcoin creator. i was just explaining how the bitcoin creator may have chosen a name/alias

how about just release details of what the project is actually doing.
no buzzwords of hope, prosperity. actually release details of business plan and scope.

no one should invest in a few sentances wrote on a forum that have no detailed contnt. and no one should be having to have secret meetings of NDA's or special club handshakes.

if this project really had scope and vision and actual susbstance. you would be promoting the substance first and then asking for funding.

all i see is "gimme $500m for something i have not even done yet".. if you cannot explain where you came up with the $500m figure, then you have failed the basics of business startups.

EG you cant cost up a house without knowing hoow much the bricks, wood and glass will cost. and you cant cost that until you have designed the house to know the measurments to calculate materials needed.

i now expect a large empty rant about unable to disclose details at the moment. or that funds are needed just to come up with an idea, or that details only released after funds received. or some other crap

P.S
if you think that making it possible to take away satoshi nakamoto's funds without use of the private key(6) connected to them public keys. then you will literally kill bitcoin. because you are opening a back door that lets random people decide that certain funds can be moved without a private key.. thus breaking the security. thus bitcoin becomes broke.  

just goes to show they dont even know what a commodity is

a commodity is a raw material used in the creation of other products (EG oil=fuel, what=bread, gold=curcuits)
bitcoin is an asset.

by adding things as a commodity thats not a commodity is just wrong.. not just for mis-representing what crypto is. but also muddying the water of what commodities are.

this is NOT bitcoin news.
its not even "blockchain" news

if you imagine blockchain as the open internet of public control of data.. then distributed ledger technology(DTL) is the inTRAnet of private control of data.

banks are not interested in decentralised public blockchain crypto currencies. they are already making private DLT cryptocurrencies

research hyperledger.

atomic swaps will b what LN does
yp LN is not going to be a bitcoin only feature. devs already admit to this.
many bitcoin/litecoin devs are in the process of handling inchannel swaps if ltc to btc. within thier channel partners privately

as for guaging the price. thats going to be something that needs development on. so for not atomic swaps should be thought of as the private offchain OTC swaps stuff.. and not anywhere near global publication/ price control exchanging

bitcoin moved passed CPU minung in 2010-2011
it then moved passed GPU mining in 2013

now its ASIC mining using special hardware, where the network has 2million asic units running. and just one asic is about 10,000 fastr than an average PC CPU

these days solo mining using a PC. is 1 chance ever 2600 years at current difficulty. and becomes about twice as hard every 3 months

your only chance now is not to solo solve blocks but to have an asic or a few asics and be part of a pool that work together to find a block solution and have a share of the reward.

in short. sorry but the security has movd beyond hobbyists running a pc in their home. now its moved onto expensive equipment that does things more efficiently

those calculaters are only good for the 1 day/one week profit after electric
because after a fornight the difficulty changes and profit changes which those calculators DO NOT account for. so ignore the monthly/yearly profit calculations.

also the calculator does not account for the cost of the equipment
previous batch S9 were $3k recently so a daily cost per asic is $8..22(under the premiss of spreading the cost over a year)  so deduct that from the daily 'profitability'

yes there are new batches this month for ~$950 which breaks down as $2.60 a day cost. so even that when deleiverd by july. and deducting that from daily profitability of now. doesnt give much wiggle room unless free/cheap electric

and as i said. difficulty jumps every fortnight that cut more into your profitability..

---

the reason pools/manufacturers mine is because they creat the asics. so there is no hardware cost. infact for every asic a user buys. the manufacturer can create more than one asic and keep the spare.

they occassionally do deals to reduce the asic price so the random population can buy them and then mine with the hopes that the speculative price(bubble prices) above the support value line is high enough to make it profitable. but no one can predict the speculative price of the next week, month, year

[1] actually you dont get 1btc if you put 10x0.1 together
input cost for 10 inputs means the tx to make a combined value wont give you a whole btc  (TX fee, remember)

[2] melting pennies to make bank notes?? how about going to the bank and asking for a swap. much like needing to give a signed tx to a pool to get it confirmed and have your UTXO's swapped for an combined amount utxo

[3] you can melt gold and make a gold boulder

[4] go check LN millisats are already been discussed and concepted, and soon the devs will have to include it into the onchain protocol to not cause rounding conflict of users who disagree on the channel value (yep already discussed and concepted)

but the point is. sharability
gold can be broken down into grams and dust. which is why people care less for gold. people dont realise there is more gold in their home than they would find in a ounce coin. but cant be assed to sell it because its all broken up. thus they dont value it the same as an ounce of gold

oh by the way.
in bitcoin things are counted at code level as satoshi's and then multiplied by 100m to then at the user GUI side represent 1btc
so its not actually 21million units of measure limit.
its 2.1quadrillion units of measure.

lets think about it this way.
maths(not accounting for difficulty variation) says that the final halving would be around 2140
and the last satoshi mined would be 2144

but imagine 1sat could be divided by 1000

suddenly halvings dont end in 2140, and mining for 'reward' doesnt end in 2144 but somewhere more like 2178
in 2144 500millisats
in 2148 250millisats
in 2152 125millisats
in 2156 62millisats
in 2160 31millisats
in 2164 15millisats
in 2168 7millisats
in 2172 3millisats
in 2174 1millisat

also instead of only 21million people having a unit of bitcoin
or all 7 billion population having 300,000 units of bitcoin (broken down as satoshi)
all 7 billion population can have 300,000,000 units of bitcoin (broken down as millisats)

rarity
if thre are 100,000,000 people that want.. an apple. but there was only 1 apple. that apple will get auctioned off for alot of money

now imagine slicing that apple into 100,000,000 slices. now everyone can have a slice. no need of a auction, no war,, no conflict, no out bidding. everyone gets a slice.

because everyone has one. they realise its not as special as it was. because its not rare. there are apple slices everywhere

word it another way.
if i gave you $10 bank note.  or 1000 pennies. which would you prefer.
instant reaction is $10 bank note.
because you think that most merchants wont accept 1000 pennies off you because of the hassle of counting.

then your logical mind kicks in trying to tell yourself they are both equal and worth the same

then your greed mindset kicks in and says well although they are the same. if in the world there were only 1 bank note or 1000 coins. which would gain most profit to resell at the highest price.

..
if i gave you a 175,000 tonne boulder of gold. or 6billion ounces of gold. which would you prefer

you say they are the same.. but deep down, really think about it.. are they

trying to translate what you said into better english.
it sound like you had BTC but someone gave you an address. you moved the BTC to that address. but because the other person was looking at BCH they did not see the funds arrrive.

the solution. if the translation is correct is this:
the person who has the receiving address has a private key.
the private key for BCH is the SAME for BTC.

so ask the receiver to download a BTC wallet and put the private key into the btc wallet and they will see the btc.

firstly
bitcoin 2016: never dropped below $300.. bitcoin 2017: never dropped below $900.. bitcoin 2018: never dropped below $6000
stop thinking th $20k is the norm and that anything below it is a beat down. flip your mindset and treat anything above $6000 as natural growth
..

secondly
for emphases. ther is NO downward spiral. the $20k was a bubble fluke of vapour speculation that didnt last long 99.9% of the community cannot use that $20k price for anything meaningful.
$20k was not "value". stop with the mindset of if it aint $20k+ then its negative. ..

thirdly
illegal manipulation of markets is only the process of exchanges with 'ghost' accounts(spoofing) with database balances made up of numbers that were not credited due to any deposits. inshort the value of those accounts are not real. but they then make orders to effect the price.


summary.
i do not beleive illegal manipulations has occured.
instead there has been some psychological trading techniques which have nothing to do with spoofing/illegal manipulation.
id say its 'emotional manipulation.. not illegal manipulation. because most exchanges would get their wrists slapped if they allowed spoofing

i just feel that day traders are just grabbing coins while at the bottom. making their 1-10% and then selling and rinse-repeating.
...
the price is not being 'beaten down' its just stagnant, without speculative bubble hype. and staying around the real underlying support area of $6k-$9k where traders are making profits in the middle.
the support area of $6k to $9k can be found using chart data and maths, to show the 2 main causes of the support area. known as 'cost of obtaining'
which are. mining cost and buyers remorse where no one is foolish to sell below the cost it took to get the coin n the first place

again for emphasis. emphasising my first point at the top. the price is not being beaten down. if anything its stagnant/small growth from $6500 and natural profiting movements up and down.


that said ther was emotional manipulation in the winter of 2017 where it went upto $20k, but that manipulation is not really happening right now. and i beleive was never due to illegal spoofing

devs are already thinking of changing the limit of sharable units of measure. which makes btc less rare

EG no one cares about tonnes of gold and that there are only 175,000 sharable units of tonnes of gold.
instead people see that there are 6 billion ounces of gold. and given time people wont care about ounces and instead care about grams of gold
because people think its not fair that not everyone can have a piece gold as there is not enough ounces per pereson

same with bitcoin. people are not caring as much about the basket number of satoshi's called a bitcoin.
people are already only buying part units of bitcoin, rather than whole units of bitcoin
services and exchanges are already moging to measure of 'bits' (100 sats) because of reasons of price and the hate of measuring in multiple decimals.

but as the price goes up the even measuring in bits wont be adequate, which some core devs are already wanting to add millisats(1000th of a sat) as an option of the future. its already being concepted in the alphatest of LN

bad idea on 2 fronts

firstly. trust
trust of the private key would be lacking

secondly. anonymity
needing to deliver something to someones physical home address would lack the anonimity

..
people can create their own paper wallets. so no need for a third party to create it. and no need for a third party to deliver it to a physical address.

im kind of smelling a rotten fish here. and it smells like the OP probably wants to scam people and know they wont report the OP because that then means the anonymous person that doesnt want government knowing they are investing in btc. to have to admit they are involved in btc to a government agency to report a loss..
so knowing that. the OP can happily scam and not get reported because the victims fear government oversight more than the loss. so wont rport the loss