#1 agree, mayor multiple. but i would also add the miner multiple too.. the cost of creating new coins via mining is also at a low profit margin which indicats price is not at a bubble, but also at a close to the real underlying value. thus furthr strengthns the concept that the price is at a good low/buying oppertunity
#2 reliable yes. but that should be standard for blockchain if they are to follow consensus.. but i agree worthy of mentioning
but here is where certain things start to sound too utopian washed over details to garner optimism and adoption..
segwit utility is NOT at 40%
take a tx of inputs
in
1Legacyaddress
bc1qsegwitaddress
1Legacyaddress
1Legacyaddress
this tx is only 25% segwit yet on the stats YOU view shows as 100% segwit.
based on number of inputs on the mainnet that are signed(witnessd) by segwit protocol are FAR less that actually use segwit. .. once the real data is calculated rather than rounded up..
try not to over exaggurate (over promise under deliver)
#3 again try not to over exaggurate (over promise under deliver)
lightning is a separate network but its impact is negligable. plus LN is not a network solely to be used for bitcoin. thus advertising it as bitcoins solution is the same as advertising an exchanges internal 'send to member offchain' of any crypto.. your over selling its stats and over selling its benefits for bitcoin alone to dominate due to it. LN is not a feature solely for bitcoin. and should not be advertised as something that makes bitcoin better than other coins because LN will be used by many coins.
try not to over exaggurate (over promise under deliver)
.. also. lightning LOSES bitcoins ideology. research channels and routing a little more(multisig). realise the multiple parties ARE needed to authorise payments. and that unlike bitcoin mainnet which is a PUSH payment. LN is a handshake payment. yep evn the recipient has to be online AND sign a TX to agree to receive payment aswell as all users along the route have to sign a tx to agree to act as a route. so becareful how you overpromise and under deliver the features description
#4 agree with many points about bitcoins dominance. but parts of this long chapter of reasons are oversold.
you mention the scaling debate of 2017 was decentralised. and yet. consensus was actually bypassed. by doing a mandatory bilateral split using a 3 card hustle manauver
also again LN is not a scaling solution purely set up for bitcoin alone to keep dominance. LN will be a 'scaling' bypass SERVICE for MANY coins. so LN could actually be the knife in bitcoins back that maks people move over to other coins due to the headache of settling tx's being more costly/slower on btc compared to other blockchains.
and lastly try not to use the "market share" as that number actually has no real meaning. there are not hundreds of billions of dollars locked up with bitcoins name on it. its just a math multiple of the price of 1 coin multiplied by coins in circulation.. someone tomorrow could make a blockchain of 1 trillion coins, sell just 1 coin for $5 and bam. $5trillion markt cap, and take over the market share. so again dont ovrsell/over promise using stats that are flimsy and not accurate to real monetary value
#5 securities and ETF are not going to affect real bitcoin trades. they are just hoarders of coins that then separatly OFFMARKET sell SHARES of their company. thus thee dollars and valuation of the company increase without those funds actually even touching bitcoin exchanges.
try not to over exaggurate (over promise under deliver). you kinda explained it. but worded it a bit too utopian dream of hope about the ETF and underplayd how ETF can actually take funds out of direct bitcoin exchanges and instad where that fiat could justend up into company shares, thus negatively affecting the bitcoin market
#6
i agree fiat is in trouble. but all the stuff like LN and blockchains can be used by govrnment to make their own crypto. i envision. governments shift over to a crypto of their making. and then hyper inflate the old traditional paper fiat so that their trillions of papr debt become the value of a loaf of bread so that they become debt free for a loaf of bread(trillions of zimbabwe dollar only buys 1 loaf of bread). but then bitcoin will (imagining this months value as 6000loaves of bread) will end up being measured as 6000 loaves of bread of a governments crypto.
so dont get too excited about hyper inflation making btc look like one coin is a trillion paper dollars.. where the real value is only still a few thousand loaves of bread goods purchase value
#7 you mentioned about rgulations and securities entring the blockchain ecosphere a few points back. which is actually making bitcoin less like privacy money. this also includes LN. which REQUIRES multiparty authorisation. so again try not to over exaggurate (over promise under deliver)
#8 be cautious when talking about monetary supply. economists are learning quickly that although bitcoin WAS limited to 2.1quadrillion sharable units, developers are actually envisioning moving to there being 2.1 Quintillion sharable units. they have already implemented it within LN and propose to add it to bitcoins mainnet too(sats vs millisats). thus more people will get to own parts of a bitcoin without struggle/limitation.
EG imagine a fight for gold if there were only 175,000 sharable units of gold in the world... then imagine suddenly markets split that and now 14mil sharable units of gold. and then split that again to 6.17billion sharable units of gold. now all a sudden people realise everyone could have a piece of gold instead of just 175,000 rich guys.. gold loses its elitist 'i own gold'' appeal mindset. and people have it in their house and not care/realise they have it. which is the current mindset.
#9 you do have the answer. you made it clear in #1. the $19500 was not a ground level price that everyone stood at and everyone had time to take advantage of and get used to. no one should stand at a peak of a mountain that only exists for minutes and call it home. and then scream collapse minutes later. instead they should stand at the real ground level and see a tsunami incoming. where shorters would scream devistation and long's get a nice "yee haa lets surf this massive wave' of excitement.. and then minutes later when the waterline corrects go back to living at ground level waiting for the next wave or climate change increase of natural water levels
.. but i would say dont oversell/over promise price predictions.. the events of 2013 are not the same events occuring this year. try to avoid being a trend anal to shout out a price. unless you have a technical analist reason.. yep trends and technical are different. take october 2013.. that rise was due to ASICs and the cost of mining increase, which caused the price increase... (which is why in point #1 i mentioned that mining cost sit beside the mayor multiple when considering what is 'value'/low price)
.. again your over embelishing features that are not really causing big enough impact to bitcoin and are ultimatly not features solely to be usd by bitcoin to keep bitcoin as a tool that offers something no othr crypto will offer.
#10
you have mentioned the mayoral multiple a few times. but anyon can select a number and make it look good. for instance if we took a 200 day average.. like you did.. but then if you take a 250 day average.. you will see a major difference. so this week you might b screaming 20day avrage.. but then when a 200 day average does not fit a positive narrative. you may scream a new number of 150 or 250 day that does fit a narative. so be careful of just doing trend anals.. instead of explaining technical analysis
......
in summary i would give you a 6 out of 10 as is,
with a flimsy 9 of 10 if you were less utopian overselling under promising.
i too have been involved havily in bitcoin since 2012 and no im not a BCH fanboy. but i am not afraid to admit btc's flaws and issues so that people can be truly informed and then reap the benefits. rather than sold a over promise and get disapointed and end up thinking they got fooled into a gimmick, even when btc is not a gimmick.
EG
advertise LN as a side service for a niche of users who desire to spend frequently.... but not a sole solution purely for bitcoin that all bitcoin users will need/want/benefit from using. (even LN devs have warnings up, and that LN is not a usecase for everyone all the time).. and its not a feature only bitcoiners get to use